What Ukrainians Expect from the US President-Elect?

Foreign Policy Brief #171 | By: Yelena Korshunov | December 31, 2024

Photo by Gayatri Malhotra on Unsplash

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Oksana is a teacher in Odessa, a Ukrainian city that is a target of frequent Russian shelling for almost three years now. As a result, Odessa is one of several regions whose infrastructure has been severely damaged. When the electricity is on, everybody is happy because these days having a light and working fridge or washer at home has become a luxury. I asked Oksana what people in Odessa think about the president-elect. Do they have positive expectations about Trump’s promise to “end the war in one day”? Or are they apprehensive about the potential lack of US military support? “Everyone is so intoxicated with grief, war, and joylessness,” Oksana says. “Many people are depressed and frustrated. Profoundly exhausted by years of war, death, and worry for their own and their beloved lives, they became tired and often aggressive. Some may think about politics, but we are all now here living for the moment. Will it be a prilyot (missile’s strike) or not? Will it kill you or not? Every night, when you go to bed, you don’t know if you will wake up in the morning. People do not really discuss the US presidential election and its impact on Ukraine. We do not have excitement or sadness about Trump’s appointment. What will be will be. We just live day by day. We are busy with how to survive.”

Tetiana is a refugee from the Ukrainian city Kryviy Rih. She lives in Brooklyn working as a teacher assistant at a childcare center. Tetiana says “Some immigrants from Ukraine here believe that Trump will end the war. I asked a colleague, ‘Most likely, he will give up Ukrainian territories to Putin. Are you okay with this?’ and my colleague answered, ‘I live in America, I don’t care.’”

“I am afraid that Trump will give up territories to Ukraine,” Tetiana told me. “My city (Kryviy Rih) was heavily bombed yesterday. I couldn’t find my friends the entire day. I cried all night and couldn’t go to work. I was told that their house was bombed. I looked for them all day, called everyone and asked if there was any update, if someone was able to reach out to them. And then I heard that they were found under the rubble, dead. My friend was pregnant. I am just crying – that’s all. Why them? Why her unborn baby?”

Before the announcement of the US presidential elections results, AP News asked Ukrainian soldiers at an artillery battery in Eastern Ukraine what they thought about both candidates for president. “I hope that the number of weapons, the number of guns for our victory will increase… We don’t care who the president is as long as they don’t cut us off from aid because we need it,” a 39-year-old commander told the AP hours before Trump’s victory was confirmed. “We will come up with something, no matter what happens. We are a shield between Europe and Russia… Other countries do not understand what is happening here, they see it on TV and it is far away for them,” added another military man.

While Ukrainian president Zelensky and former president Poroshenko hurried to congratulate Trump with his victory, many Ukrainian officials point out the uncertainty of further forecasts. Radio Liberty quoted Oleksandr Merezhko, a chairperson and head of the Committee on Foreign Affairs.According to Merezhko, Trump’s victory could become “both a challenge and an opportunity” for Ukraine, since he will be guided only by the interests of his country. “Therefore,” he says, “Trump needs to prove that supporting Ukraine is in the interests of the United States.”

Trump’s victory jeopardizes a chance of accepting Ukraine into NATO, and European leaders should prepare for greater independence in helping Kyiv. This was the conclusion of the Ukrainian publication European Pravda, analyzing the consequences of Trump’s return to the White House. An official invitation to Ukraine to join NATO before the end of the war is one of the points of Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan”. However, it would only make sense to discuss this idea if the Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris became president. According to Politico, seven countries of the alliance, including the United States, are against an immediate invitation of Ukraine to NATO and Trump most likely will be the leader of this point of view.

Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes that Trump’s victory is not the worst scenario for Ukraine. In his opinion, “it would be much worse if the US were to plunge into a political crisis,” which could cause Kyiv to lose American aid for an indefinite period. According to Fesenko, the scenario where Harris wins, but the Republicans control the Senate and possibly control the House of Representatives would be a “problematic scenario.” At the same time, Fesenko believes that the format of support for Ukraine will change under Trump’s presidency.

While politicians and analysts around the world discuss the possible scenarios of the end of the war and Trump declares his vague vision of ending the war in one day, millions of people in Ukraine live for the moment praying for their children to survive. Thousands of Ukrainians are still suffering on territories occupied by Russia, and many Ukrainian refugees in different countries are dreaming about returning back to the burned and wounded land of their country under a peaceful sky. 

Engagement Resources:

• Ukarine’s Reaction to the 2024 US Presidential Election 
• Ukranians Worry About Results of the U.S. Presidential Election
• 45% of Ukrainians think Trump’s election will bring peace closer, survey finds

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