Latest Economic and Trade Policy Posts

Brief #112—Economics
By Rosalind Gottfried
Biden’s 1.9 trillion dollar American Rescue Plan is viewed as adding to the already ballooning federal deficit.  Certainly the pandemic has added to that burden but the structural issues go much deeper than the necessary expenditures to address the desperate economic  situation which befell many Americans.  The deficit is expected to reach 35 trillion dollars by the end of the 2021 fiscal year; it stood at 28 trillion prior to the latest stimulus.  In the first five months of the fiscal year the deficit was 68% greater than for the same time in the previous year.

Brief #111—Economic
By Rosalind Gottfried
President Biden’s 1.9 trillion dollar American Rescue Plan contains the most comprehensive anti-poverty program since President Johnson’s War on Poverty in the 1960s.  The program will reduce overall poverty by one third and child poverty by one half.  Poverty is expected to be reduced to 8.7% for the year compared with 13.7% previously.  The effect on Black and Hispanic families will be even greater bringing 38% of Black families and 43% of Hispanic families out of poverty while affecting more than one half of the children in these demographics.  This wide ranging program attacks poverty from multiple sources though it contains one time payments and policies which will expire at the end of 2021; nothing in the program extends into 2022 at this time.

Brief #1—Agriculture
By Katherine Cart
Farmland is lucrative. Acreage denotes wealth and provides multi-generational investment returns. Racial inequity and farm policy, in this country, have long been indivisible; discrimination in agrarian land ownership and by the USDA has made a farce of an already flimsy bid for equality, for financial freedom and freedom to farm and ranch American land with the nonpartisan support of government. The Covid-19 pandemic has both exacerbated and highlighted the racism within the USDA’s treatment of farmers. Two bills, the Emergency Relief for Farmers of Color Act and the Justice for Black Farmers Act seek to begin the remediation of racial disparity in US agriculture.

Brief #110—Economics
By Rosalind Gottfried
The debate regarding the efficacy of a $15 minimum wage is heating up since Biden included it in his Corona virus stimulus package.  The bill would have a gradual phasing in of the wage over the next four years.  Currently, it would be $9.50 and go to $11, then $12.50, then $14 annually until it reaches $15 in 2025.  Future increases would be tied the median wage rate, thereby assuring the consistent value of the minimum wage. 

The consequences of the increase are debated and the research demonstrates some mixed outcomes but overwhelmingly it supports the increase.  Most show it does not actually decrease jobs. One study shows no impact on jobs in 138 state and local areas, over five years and another shows no impact in thirty years. One analysis of 60 studies of wages and jobs shows no net loss of jobs.  Increased wages actually are more likely to increase jobs due to the enhanced purchasing power of the lowest income groups.  More money would be spent in local businesses and services, increasing revenue and creating jobs. 

Brief #109—Economics
By Rosalind Gottfried
President Biden seeks to raise the child tax credit to $3600 for children under 6 and to$3000 for school age children under 18.  This is up from the current level of $2000 per child.  As part of the stimulus, this change would become effective in July and last for one year though many Democrats would like to see the change made permanent.   The credit would be available to individuals making $75,000 or less and couples making $150,000 or less.  It would be based on income data from 2019 or 2020.  To increase the effectiveness of the tax break, families could receive monthly payments of between $250 and $350 to meet their routine bills.  Researchers at Columbia University estimate that this measure could reduce the child poverty rate by close to 50%.  The proposal gained support with the weak jobs report released last week.  The cost of the program would increase the federal deficit by 120 billion dollars.

Brief #108—Economics
By Rosalind Gottfried
With the roll out of COVID 19 vaccinations, and the Biden administration’s pledges to speed their dissemination, it might be imagined that the drug companies are reaping enormous profits.  This would be, in large part, an incorrect presumption.  Because many of the pharmaceutical companies took money to develop the vaccine, there are limits on how much they can charge for the product.  Pfizer, one of the first to bring a successful vaccine to market, did not take government funds for research and development of the vaccine; they did join Operation Warp Speed, at a cost of $1.95 billion to the government to provide the first batch of 100million free to the public.  They will charge the government $39.99 per two dose protocol.  While the vaccine costs $15 per person to produce, there are also shipping, administration, and distribution costs.  They are expected to sell $14bn orth of vaccine in the first year. 

Brief #107—Economic Policy
By Rosalind Gottfried
In addition to his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, now being debated in Congress, President Biden has signed  a number of Executive Orders  affecting the  well-being of struggling Americans.

These included a request that the Department of Education further suspend student loan payments to alleviate the burden on debt carrying graduates.  He also requested the suspension of evictions and foreclosures on 44 million rental units across the country.

Brief #106—Economics
By Rosalind Gottfried
State and local government budgets provide the bread and butter of fiscal life and, because of the pandemic costs, require a federal infusion of aid to accomplish maintenance of essential services.  State and local governments provide major funding for infrastructure, services, and education.  They outspend the federal government on goods and services and account for 15% of the GDP.  They contribute more than 90% of the moneys for education and 80% of transportation spending.  State Medicaid costs have been on the rise, especially in Republican states that did not take advantage of federal extensions of benefits to states. State and local entities employ more people than domestic manufacturing and and  have lost 1.3 million jobs since March, representing the smallest workforce since 2001.  These are budgetary elements which impact the availability of goods and services which contribute to quality of life, such as police, fire, and waste services. 

Brief #104—Economic
By Rosalind Gottfried
President elect Joe Biden’s 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus plan provides a comprehensive assault on what ails America and reinstates some of the controversial elements rejected by Republicans in the $900 billion December plan.  Most notable is a reinstatement of 350 billion dollars to bolster state and local budgets suffering shortfalls largely attributable to the pandemic crisis.  It also includes 400 billion dollars of pandemic aid to vaccinate Americans and open schools.  Biden set a goal to vaccinate 100 million Americans in his first 100 days in office.