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How Will Tech Money Influence the California’s Governor’s Race (Technology Policy Brief #163)
Tech billionaires are spending at historic levels to influence politics in California. Google and Facebook, and their CEO’s, are donating heavily to key races in November 2026, as are venture capitalists, cryptocurrency entrepreneurs, and Palantir’s co-founders. Whether or not the candidates they are backing win, they will have an impact.
The Week That Was In Review (Foreign Policy Brief #228)
On February 28 2026, Israel and the United States engaged in joint attacks on Iranian territory, far larger and more devastating in scale than the first direct attacks on Iran in June 2025. Secretary of War, (Defnse) Pete Hegseth has said the US is only “accelerating, not decelerating” its war on Iran, with more assets heading to the region as the conflict ricochets from Dubai, to Saudi Arabia, Turkey to Sri Lanka where an Iranian ship was recently sunk using torpedoes.
Guarding Against Efforts To Subvert the Mid-term Elections
The mid-term 2026 elections provide an opportunity for the Democrats to become the majority party in the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. Polls suggest that President Trump’s popularity is declining and that the Dems have an opportunity in the mid-terms.
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Montana (Brief #17)
Montana’s 2026 election cycle remains an uphill battle for Democrats in a state that has consistently favored Republicans in federal races. Still, Democrats are fielding candidates in both U.S. House districts and the U.S. Senate contest, aiming to compete through grassroots organizing, rural outreach, and working-class economic messaging in hopes of improving margins and testing the state’s political trajectory in a midterm year.
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Michigan (Brief #16)
Michigan will be one of the most competitive Democratic Senate primaries of the 2026 cycle following Senator Gary Peters’ decision to retire and not run for re-election. As a battleground state that has flip-flopped in recent federal elections, Michigan’s Senate seat is a top priority for the Democrats. In order to win, Democratic nominee will need to garner support from the party’s urban voter base, perform well in suburban areas, and furthermore perform well with working-class voters all across the state.
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Maine (Brief #15)
Shifting to the Pine Tree State, Maine features one of the most consequential Senate races for Democrats in 2026, alongside two U.S. House contests. The primary will be June 9th followed by the general on November 3rd.
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Kentucky (Brief #14)
In Kentucky, the Bluegrass State, voters will decide one U.S. Senate race and all six U.S. House seats in 2026. The marquee contest follows the retirement of Mitch McConnell, ending decades of Republican leadership in Washington. McConnell’s tenure included serving as Senate Majority Leader and playing a central role in shaping the modern federal judiciary. His relationship with former President Donald Trump deteriorated following the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, limiting his standing within the party’s populist wing, but his institutional influence remained significant through the end of his career.
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Louisiana (Brief #13)
For a state that is often considered a Republican stronghold, Louisiana has more political complexity than a surface-level glance. It certainly leans red; that much is sure given the state has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 2000 and Republicans hold nearly every statewide elected office and a majority in the statehouse. With Republican Governor Jeff Landry elected in 2023, the state has pushed further and further right on issues regarding abortion, education, and immigration. However, there is an interesting political divide between Republican rural areas and urban Democratic strongholds like New Orleans. Notably, there is a 37%-35% split when it comes to registered Democrats and Republicans respectively, meaning that in most recent elections, some registered Democrats are voting for Republican candidates.
The Expanding Web: ICE Detention and the Machinery of Mass Removal (Social Justice Policy Brief #188)
The American immigration detention system is currently undergoing an unprecedented and rapid metamorphosis, transitioning from a network of civil holding centers into a massive carceral apparatus designed for industrial-scale deportation. As of February 2026, the number of individuals held in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody has reached a historic peak of over 70,000 people across 225 facilities nationwide. This surge represents a nearly 75 percent increase in the detained population since early 2025, fueled by the staggering 45 billion dollars in ICE funding authorized under the signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The administration’s current strategic roadmap aims to bring upwards of 108,000 detention beds online by the end of this year, with a long-term capacity target of 135,000 beds to facilitate the largest mass removal operation in the history of the United States.
How Will Tech Money Influence the California’s Governor’s Race (Technology Policy Brief #163)
Technology Policy Brief #163 | Mindy Spatt | March 8, 2026
Tech billionaires are spending at historic levels to influence politics in California. Google and Facebook, and their CEO’s, are donating heavily to key races in November 2026, as are venture capitalists, cryptocurrency entrepreneurs, and Palantir’s co-founders. Whether or not the candidates they are backing win, they will have an impact.
Analysis
California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is well-known as friendly with tech billionaires both personally and politically, has been a reliable veto for any legislation that Silicon Valley doesn’t like. With Newsom termed out and eyeing the White House, his billionaire friends will need a new ally in Sacramento. Looking amongst their own, the industry has settled on a popular mayor from San Jose, Matt Mahan.
While an undergraduate at Harvard, Mark Zuckerberg was Mayor Mahan’s classmate. Before running for office in San Jose, Mahan worked in the tech sector. In 2014, he co-founded a startup with billionaire financier Ron Conway and Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff.
In the crowded California Governor’s primary race, Mahan’s entry further divides a ballot that was already crammed with democratic candidates. It includes Representative Eric Swalwell, former Representative Katie Porter, self-funded billionaire Tom Steyer, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villariagosa, Superintendent of Education Tony Thurmond, and former State Controller Betty Yee. .
The fractured democratic field creates a threat that democrats could lose the state altogether. The top two candidates in the June primary will be the only ones to appear on the ballot in November, regardless of party. The two Republicans in the race normally wouldn’t stand a chance in reliably blue California; a two-democrat race is more likely. But with 8 Democrats vying for democratic voters, the two Republicans could each end up with more votes than any single Democratic candidate, meaning no democrat would appear on the ballot in the general election in November.
PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW THE PRIMARY SYSTEM WORKS.
Mahan is more moderate than Swalwell, Porter, or Steyer, all of whom are now polling ahead of him. But he’s quickly pulling ahead in fundraising, already amassing a war chest of over $7 million. A tech-backed Political Action Committee (PAC), the Govern for California Network, donated $300,000 to Mahan. Other supporters include LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, Google co-founder Sergey Brin, venture capitalist Michael Moritz, and Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale. An independent expenditure committee backed by Silicon Valley executives called “California Back to Basics Supporting Matt Mahan for Governor 2026”. is spending $4.8 million on a statewide television ad blitz supporting Mahan.
Tech money has pushed San Francisco’s leftist local government toward more centrist democrats in recent years, with donors backing moderate candidates and financing recall campaigns that ousted progressive district attorney Chesa Boudin and several school board members. With that victory under their belts, they have Sacramento in their sights.
Their influence will be felt in other races as well, and could make or break several ballot initiatives. Meta and Google have contributed $10 million to a Super Pac called California Leads, which, according to Politico, will not limit itself to races and issues affecting the tech industry. Tech money is funding a last-minute challenge to Congressman Ro Kahna, a popular Silicon Valley politician whose tech support has soured due to his progressive politics, willingness to challenge Trump, and support of the billionaire tax ballot initiative (see Health & Gender Policy Brief #185) and similar federal legislation.
The message is clear to politicians at all levels in California. Try to rein us in, tax us, or hold us accountable, and we will use our unlimited wealth to take you down.
Engagement Resources
- “The California Initiative for Technology and Democracy seeks state-level solutions to the threats that disinformation, AI, deepfakes, and other emerging technologies pose to our democracy and our elections.”
https://cited.tech/agenda - The Bulletin of Technology in Public Life
https://citap.unc.edu/publication-search/bulletin-of-tech-public-life/ - The Shadowy Millions Behind San Francisco’s “Moderate” Politics. Laura Jedeed, January 6, 2025, The New Republic
https://newrepublic.com/article/189303/san-francisco-moderate-politics-millionaire-tech-donors
The Week That Was In Review (Foreign Policy Brief #228)
Foreign Policy Brief #228 | By Abran C. | March 10, 2026
US-Israel War With Iran
On February 28 2026, Israel and the United States engaged in joint attacks on Iranian territory, far larger and more devastating in scale than the first direct attacks on Iran in June 2025. Secretary of War, (Defnse) Pete Hegseth has said the US is only “accelerating, not decelerating” its war on Iran, with more assets heading to the region as the conflict ricochets from Dubai, to Saudi Arabia, Turkey to Sri Lanka where an Iranian ship was recently sunk using torpedoes. The UK, France, and Germany recently made statements indicating that they could join in the war, reportedly taking steps to defend both their own and allied interests in the region by “enabling necessary and proportionate defensive actions to destroy Iran’s capability to launch missiles and drones”. Iran has warned Europeans against joining the conflict or taking military actions against it.
Over the course of two weeks the war has escalated dramatically. Over 1,300 people in Iran have been reported killed as a result of US-Israeli attacks. At least seven American soldiers have been killed in the war thus far, with Iran claiming the true number of Americans killed at over 500. Iran recently named a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, just over a week after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in US-Israeli strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as the third leader of the Islamic Republic by Iran’s Assembly of experts. President Donald Trump stated that any choice made without his approval would be “unacceptable” and that he wanted to be involved in choosing the new supreme leader of the country. This now regional war, which has the potential to become a global conflict, is only two weeks old but has seen escalations not seen in any previous wars in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently made statements, promising “many surprises” for the next phase of the conflict.
Cars burn in Zapopan, near Guadalajara, after El Mencho’s death on Sunday, 22 February, 2026
Violence in Mexico
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1jkw18e19jo
In a recent operation, the Mexican military in coordination with US intelligence, killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes “El Mencho” the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The operation was carried out on Feb. 22 in Tapalpa, Jalisco. What followed was not surrender but a furious wave of retaliation that targeted multiple cities, roads and airports across at least 20 Mexican states. Armed cartel members torched vehicles, ambushed security forces, killing at least 25 National Guard troops in the first days alone. With the backdrop of the World Cup which will be co-hosted by Mexico later this summer, as well as a group of qualifiers in late March, questions have arisen over the safety of fans who are set to soon visit the country. President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to reassure the public, stating that the situation was under control. Security forces remain on high alert, particularly in Jalisco and Michoacán, where cartel influence is strongest.
© UNCCD/Mwangi Kirubi Elephant bones lie by a dried-out water source in Turkana County in the north of Kenya.
UN Declares Global Water Bankruptcy
The United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health issued a major report for 2026. The report declares that for the first time in recorded history, the planet has entered an era of Global Water Bankruptcy. Nearly three-quarters of the world’s population lives in countries classified as water-insecure or critically water- insecure. Around the world groundwater now provides about 50% of global domestic water use and over 40% of irrigation water, tying both drinking water security and food production directly to rapidly depleting aquifers. Tshilidzi Marwala, UN undersecretary general, said: “Water bankruptcy is becoming a driver of fragility, displacement and conflict. Managing it fairly is now central to maintaining peace, stability and social cohesion”. The report calls for a fundamental reset of how water is protected and used around the world.
VOA. A map of ports in the Horn of Africa. Peace with Eritrea could give landlocked Ethiopia more access to the Red Sea.
Ethiopia-Eritrea War
https://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00095085.html
Ethiopia and Eritrea both say they are preparing for the possibility of war. Landlocked Ethiopia claims it needs access to the Red Sea and its claims are seen as a provocation by Eritrea. In 1993, Eritrea broke away from Ethiopia after a series of insurgencies and wars starting in 1961. The two countries went to war against each other from 1998 to 2000, which was then followed by a border conflict that lasted for nearly two decades. In 2018 in an agreement that won Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize, the two countries agreed to normalize relations.
The tension between the two countries stems from the geographical loss Ethiopia suffered from Eritrea’s independence which resulted in Ethiopia losing its access to the Red Sea. Now Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki recently claimed in an interview that once again Ethiopia was carrying out a war against his country. Ethiopia in turn claims that Eritrean troops have entered border areas in its embattled Tigray region, raising concerns about a return to full scale war in the horn of Africa.
Guarding Against Efforts To Subvert the Mid-term Elections
GROUP OP ED
The mid-term 2026 elections provide an opportunity for the Democrats to become the majority party in the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. Polls suggest that President Trump’s popularity is declining and that the Dems have an opportunity in the mid-terms.
However some people fear that Trump and the Republicans will take steps to alter the process of the elections to their advantage. In this Op Ed we highlight possibility of tampering with the election process and what can be done to prevent it from happening.
According to the Constitution federal elections are the responsibility of the states.
Only Congress, and not the President, can make rules that affect the current election process. This means that each state has the ability to decide who can register to vote, what the voting process is, how votes can be counted and the outcome determined.
President Trump has said he wants to nationalize the election process but he has no legal ability to do that. Trump’s suggestion to nationalize elections in the United States goes against what the U.S. Constitution provides. Based on the text of Article 1, Section 4, Clause 1 the Constitution places the power to conduct elections – the times, places and manner of holding elections – clearly with each individual states. (See new USRESIST NEWS Civil Rights Policy Brief # 250 for more on this.)
Currently there also are several points of contention in the election process that worry political observers. These include:
-Voter Registration Requirements:
In most cases, you will need either a driver’s license or a state ID to register to vote. If you do not have either of these, you may be able to provide other types of documentation, including a bank statement or utility bill. But the required documents you need to register vary by state. Most states maintain a voter registration list that contains the names and contact information of those who have been registered in previous elections.
Many states have strengthened their voter ID requirements to help stop voter fraud. Examples of voter fraud occur when someone illegally casts a vote in the name of a dead person or someone who has moved. Voter fraud can be reported to state election officials or to the United States Department of Justice (DOJ). The Trump administration’s DOJ is likely to be on the lookout for any evidence of voter fraud, and use this as an excuse to invalidate election results.
Congress is trying to support a new dangerous voter registration law—the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act. This proposed Act would impose stringent new requirements to verify voter identity during registration, drastically curtail voting by mail, mandate automatic purges of voter rolls, and requite photo IDs at the polls.
-Creating and Maintaining a Voter Registration List:
Creating and maintaining an accurate voter registration list requires close monitoring and multiple checks and balances. These include keeping the registries up to date, eliminating duplicate registrations and voters who are no longer resident in that electoral district. Enforcement of anti-fraud and voter registration laws is also important. It deters future fraud as well as ensures that persons who have broken the law are held accountable for their actions.
– Absentee/Mail-In Voting:
Absentee and mail-in voting is voting that does not happen in person on Election Day but instead occurs another way—usually by mail. Absentee and mail-in ballots help widen the number of voters participating in an election. However some, especially right-wing supporters, want to limit or ban mail-in votes as they view them as ways to increase the votes from constituencies opposed to them.
-Poll Worker Training
At the same time, proponents of false claims of fraud in our election have attempted to recruit fellow election deniers to be poll workers. While state and local election officials cannot exclude poll workers based on their political beliefs, they can and should take reasonable steps to ensure that poll workers set aside any personal or partisan beliefs, follow the law, and faithfully carry out their duties.
-Election Security:
As cyber threats evolve, it is essential to assess the security of our election infrastructure regularly, to understand where new vulnerabilities may crop up. Congress should provide resources for state and federal agencies to conduct regular threat assessments and help state and local governments implement mitigation strategies to address the identified weaknesses.
-Election Monitoring
Scholars distinguish between types of election monitoring organizations in terms of quality. Some election monitors, often those with ties to authoritarian states, validate elections even when they are blatantly flawed. Monitors do not directly prevent electoral fraud, but rather record and report instances of suspicious practices. The monitoring may serve to disincentivize, prevent or minimize practices that undermine election quality, as well as election-related violence. Election observation increasingly looks at the entire electoral process over a long period of time, rather than at election-day proceedings only. The legitimacy of an election can be affected by the criticism of monitors, unless they are themselves seen as biased. President Trump has suggested he may use ICE officers to monitor polling place and election outcomes. This would be considered illegal unless they had the permission of local and state authoritiee; in which case they could only be stationed outside of polling places.
-Election Machine Reliability:
Elections present several opportunities for adversaries to compromise the electronic voting systems used by many states. However, despite evidence that such systems are vulnerable to a variety of attcks, there is little indication that voting through these systems has been altered in U.S. elections. Electronic voting machines currently in use by several states are known to have serious potential security vulnerabilities. One of the most important ways to secure electronic voting systems is to use election equipment thatcreates a paper record of every vote cast. Not every state currently requires the use of paper ballots, voter-verifiable paper records of votes, or permanent paper records for voting machines, but these safeguards are widely considered the most important security measures to protect against vote tampering. Paper records enable vote tallies to be audited and confirmed manually in the event of any suspected manipulation. Basic cybersecurity hygiene measures can also be important factors including securing voting equipment from physical tampering, installing software updates, disconnecting voting machines from the internet, and maintaining thorough logs of their use can further contribute to securing voting systems.
-Certifying Voter Outcomes
Election certification is an administrative task, usually done at the local and state level, that confirms the election process has concluded. At that stage, every vote has been counted and the results of the various races on the ballot have been determined. Simply put, certifying election results serves as an important “period” at the end of the postelection process “sentence.” Certification includes a series of deadlines at the local and state level that must be met before the results are officially finalized. Although it has proven to be unusual the certification process is another opportunity for fraudulent results to be posted by those doing the certification.
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Montana (Brief #17)
Primary Election Date: June 2, 2026
General Election Date: November 3, 2026
Montana’s 2026 election cycle remains an uphill battle for Democrats in a state that has consistently favored Republicans in federal races. Still, Democrats are fielding candidates in both U.S. House districts and the U.S. Senate contest, aiming to compete through grassroots organizing, rural outreach, and working-class economic messaging in hopes of improving margins and testing the state’s political trajectory in a midterm year.
Montana’s Democratic House Primary
Ryan Busse
Race: Democratic Primary — Montana’s 1st Congressional District
Current Position: Former firearms industry executive; 2024 Democratic candidate for governor of Montana
Background: Busse previously served as vice president of sales at Kimber Manufacturing and ran statewide for governor in 2024, giving him name recognition across Montana.
Campaign Message: Emphasizing working-class economics, rural community support, and pragmatic outreach to both urban and rural voters in western Montana.
Why he might win: Strong statewide profile from the 2024 governor’s race and broad appeal to Democrats seeking a competitive challenger.
Russell Cleveland
Race: Democratic Primary — Montana’s 1st Congressional District
Current Position: Education consultant and U.S. Navy veteran
Background: Cleveland is a veteran and Montana resident campaigning on military service and community engagement.
Campaign Message: Highlights rural roots and veteran experience, aiming to appeal to independent voters and the Democratic base.
Why he might win: Military background and rural identity may resonate with Democratic primary voters prioritizing electability.
Matt Rains
Race: Democratic Primary — Montana’s 1st Congressional District
Current Position: Rancher and retired U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter pilot
Background: A West Point graduate and Montana rancher with military leadership experience.
Campaign Message: Focused on economic development, veterans’ issues, and rural community investment.
Why he might win: Military leadership credentials and ranching background could broaden support among primary voters.
Sam Forstag
Race: Democratic Primary — Montana’s 1st Congressional District
Current Position: Former smokejumper and union leader
Background: Serves as vice president of the Forest Service Council Local 60 and is active in labor organizing.
Campaign Message: Emphasizes workers’ rights, affordable housing, healthcare reform, and childcare access.
Why he might win: Strong grassroots ties and union support may energize progressive primary voters.
Sam Lux
Race: Democratic Primary — Montana’s 2nd Congressional District
Current Position: Horse farrier
Background: Rural professional running in central and eastern Montana.
Campaign Message: Focused on representing rural communities and bringing local perspectives to federal policy.
Why he might win: Appeal to rural Democratic voters seeking a locally rooted candidate.
Brian Miller
Race: Democratic Primary — Montana’s 2nd Congressional District
Current Position: Attorney
Background: Practicing attorney campaigning across central and eastern Montana.
Campaign Message: Emphasizes legal experience, community advocacy, and access to services.
Why he might win: Professional background and traditional policy framing may appeal to moderate Democratic voters.
Alani Bankhead
Race: Democratic Primary — U.S. Senate
Current Position: Air Force veteran and leadership consultant
Background: Served 21 years in the U.S. Air Force, including special operations assignments and senior-level protection roles.
Campaign Message: Focused on leadership, national security experience, and disciplined governance.
Why she might win: Military service and executive experience could appeal to moderate and independent-leaning Democrats.
Reilly Neill
Race: Democratic Primary — U.S. Senate
Current Position: Former Montana state representative
Background: Previously served in the Montana Legislature and has experience in state-level policymaking.
Campaign Message: Emphasizes economic justice, environmental protection, and healthcare access.
Why she might win: Legislative experience and appeal to progressive Democratic voters.
Michael Black Wolf
Race: Democratic Primary — U.S. Senate
Current Position: Tribal historic preservation officer for the Fort Belknap Indian Community
Background: Works in tribal governance and cultural preservation.
Campaign Message: Champions tribal sovereignty, rural economic development, and inclusive representation.
Why he might win: Potential to mobilize Native American voters and rural Democrats seeking broader representation.
Michael Hummert
Race: Democratic Primary — U.S. Senate
Current Position: Helena-based activist and prior candidate
Background: Previously ran in Democratic contests and focuses on Montana-centered policy concerns.
Campaign Message: Prioritizes economic development and pragmatic statewide policy solutions.
Why he might win: Familiarity with Democratic voters and appeal to moderates in a challenging statewide race.
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Michigan (Brief #16)
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series Brief #16 | Ryan Dulaney | 2/24/2026
Primary Election Date: August 4, 2026
General Election Date: November 3, 2026
Overview
Michigan will be one of the most competitive Democratic Senate primaries of the 2026 cycle following Senator Gary Peters’ decision to retire and not run for re-election. As a battleground state that has flip-flopped in recent federal elections, Michigan’s Senate seat is a top priority for the Democrats. In order to win, Democratic nominee will need to garner support from the party’s urban voter base, perform well in suburban areas, and furthermore perform well with working-class voters all across the state.
Democratic Senate Race Candidates
Haley Stevens
Current Position: U.S. Representative, Michigan’s 11th Congressional District
Background: Elected to Congress in 2018, Stevens has focused on manufacturing policy, automotive industry investments, and economic policy in general.
Campaign Message: Emphasizing job growth, supply chain resiliency, and middle-class affordability, Stevens is positioning herself as a pragmatic Democrat with appeal to suburban and business-oriented voters.
Why she might win: Strong fundraising network, experience in congress, appeal to metropolitan and suburban population.
Mallory McMorrow
Current Position: Michigan State Senator 8th District
Background: Elected to the Michigan Senate in 2018, McMorrow gained widespread attention for her speeches defending LGBTQ rights.
Campaign Message: Her campaign is focusing on reproductive rights, and the state of democratic institutions. McMorrow appeals to younger and more progressive primary voters.
Why she might win: Strong grassroots support, national media renown, activist base, youthful appeal.
Abdul El-Sayed
Background: Currently a physician, is a former Wayne County Health Director. Ran for governor in 2018.
Campaign Message: Platform includes healthcare reform, corporate regulation, and economic justice. El-Sayed is positioning himself as the most progressive (leftmost) candidate in the field.
Why he Might Win: Established progressive voter base, previous experience running statewide, strong appeal to progressives.
Democratic House Race Candidates
Primary Election Date: August 4, 2026
General Election Date: November 3, 2026
Hillary Scholten
Race: Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District Democratic Primary Current Position: U.S. Representative, Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District
Background: Elected in 2022 after flipping a Republican seat, Scholten previously worked as an immigration attorney and was a Department of Justice official.
Campaign Message: Emphasizes reproductive rights, economic stability, and pragmatic governance. Scholten has positioned herself as a center-left Democrat focused on protecting democratic institutions and expanding opportunity.
Why she might win: Incumbency advantage, demonstrated ability to win in a competitive district, and strong support among suburban voters in the Grand Rapids area.
Debbie Dingell
Race: Michigan’s 6th Congressional District Democratic Primary
Current Position: U.S. Representative Michigan’s 6th Congressional District
Background: Has been in Congress since 2015, Dingell has deep roots in Michigan politics and strong ties to organized labor and the automotive industry. She is a longtime advocate of both healthcare and manufacturing issues.
Campaign Message: Running on protecting Social Security and Medicare, union support, and strengthening Michigan’s manufacturing, Dingell presents herself as an experienced and reliable advocate for working families.
Why she might win: Incumbency, strong union backing, name recognition, and institutional support within the Democratic Party.
Dan Kildee
Race: Michigan’s 8th Congressional District Democratic Primary
Current Position: U.S. Representative Michigan’s 8th Congressional District
Background: Elected in 2012, Kildee has focused on economic revival in Flint, infrastructure investment, and public health issues (e.g post Flint water crisis).
Campaign Message: Centered on economic revitalization, infrastructure funding, and opening access to healthcare, Kildee campaigns as a pragmatic candidate focused on visible community improvement.
Why he might win: Record of delivering federal resources to his district, local ties, and limited organized opposition.
Haley Stevens
Race: Michigan’s 11th Congressional District Democratic Primary
Current Position: U.S. Representative Michigan’s 11th Congressional District
Background: Elected in 2018, Stevens has built a platform around manufacturing, automotive industry investment, and economic competitiveness. She previously served in roles connected to federal economic recovery efforts.
Campaign Message: Framing her work around innovation, job growth, and strengthening domestic manufacturing, Stevens appeals to suburban professionals and labor-oriented Democrats alike.
Why she might win: Strong fundraising network, policy focus aligned with Michigan’s industrial economy, and solid suburban and urban base.
Rashida Tlaib
Race: Michigan’s 12th Congressional District Democratic Primary
Current Position: U.S. Representative Michigan’s 12th Congressional District
Background: First elected to Congress in 2018, Tlaib is a member of the progressive “Squad” and previously served in the Michigan Legislature. She has been a prominent voice on economic justice, civil rights, and foreign policy.
Campaign Message: Centered on economic equity, environmental justice, housing access, and human rights advocacy, Tlaib maintains a strong progressive platform.
Why she might win: Deep grassroots network in Detroit, strong small-dollar fundraising, and a loyal progressive voter base.
Shri Thanedar
Race: Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary
Current Position: U.S. Representative Michigan’s 13th Congressional District
Background: Elected in 2022, Thanedar is a businessman and former state legislator who built his campaign on outsider credentials and personal immigrant success story.
Campaign Message: Focused on economic opportunity, public safety, and expanding access to jobs and education, Thanedar emphasizes pragmatic problem-solving.
Why he might win: Incumbency, personal financial resources, and name recognition across Wayne County.
Donavan McKinney
Race: Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary
Current Position: Michigan State Representative
Background: A state legislator with strong ties to local Democratic networks in Wayne County, McKinney has positioned himself as a next-generation leader within Detroit-area politics.
Campaign Message: Emphasizing economic equity, community investment, and responsive district-level representation, McKinney is presenting himself as a more locally rooted alternative.
Why he might win: Appeal to voters seeking generational change, local credibility, and consolidation of progressive support in a multi-candidate field.
Shelby Campbell
Race: Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary
Background: Former assembly line worker and community advocate
Campaign Message: Centered on working-class representation, labor rights, and economic fairness, Campbell is running as a grassroots-oriented candidate.
Why she might win: Potential to mobilize labor-aligned and anti-establishment voters if dissatisfaction with the incumbent consolidates.
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Maine (Brief #15)
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series | Morgan Davidson | 2/21/2026
Shifting to the Pine Tree State, Maine features one of the most consequential Senate races for Democrats in 2026, alongside two U.S. House contests. The primary will be June 9th followed by the general on November 3rd.
The Senate Race
Senator Susan Collins remains one of the last Republican moderates in the U.S. Senate. Her brand in Maine has long depended on an image of independence from national party leadership. Notably, Collins voted to acquit former President Donald Trump in his first impeachment trial but voted to convict in the second following the January 6th attack, a distinction that has reinforced her centrist positioning within Maine politics.
That moderate record has helped Collins survive in a state that routinely votes Democratic at the presidential level. However, the national Republican electorate has become more ideologically rigid, and primary voters often skew more conservative than general election voters. Collins’ distance from the party’s MAGA wing could theoretically expose her to intra-party pressure, though her incumbency and longstanding statewide rapport make a serious primary threat uncertain.
Maine’s broader political landscape favors Democrats at the federal level. The state’s other senator, Angus King, is an independent who caucuses with Democrats. Both U.S. House seats are currently held by Democrats. In that context, Collins’ seat represents one of the most realistic Democratic pickup opportunities on the 2026 Senate map.
That said, Collins has repeatedly demonstrated resilience. Her long tenure, constituent relationships, and cultivated moderate image may once again allow her to outperform national Republican trends. For Democrats, defeating Collins would require both strong candidate recruitment and a national environment that reinforces partisan realignment in blue-leaning states.
On the Democratic side of Maine’s marquee Senate race, both Graham Platner and Governor Janet Mills have mounted serious campaigns. Mills brings statewide name recognition and executive experience, but at this stage, Platner appears to hold the stronger momentum.
Platner, 41, offers an outsider profile that could resonate in a state that has historically rewarded candidates with pragmatic, independent identities. Though he aligns with progressive policy positions, his background in Maine’s oyster industry gives him a locally rooted, small-business narrative that may broaden his appeal beyond traditional partisan lines. That blend of economic authenticity and generational contrast distinguishes him within the field.
He has also generated significant earned media, coverage driven by story and profile rather than paid advertising, suggesting that his candidacy is attracting organic interest. In a crowded political environment, narrative viability matters.
Fundraising further reinforces his position. Platner has reportedly outraised Mills by several million dollars, signaling both national donor engagement and grassroots enthusiasm. While Mills’ executive résumé carries weight, Platner’s ability to mobilize financial support without prior statewide office indicates real organizational strength.
In early head-to-head polling, Platner has shown competitive numbers not only within the Democratic primary but also against incumbent Senator Susan Collins. While polling this far out should be treated cautiously, those results suggest that Collins is not invulnerable and that Democrats may have a viable pathway if they nominate a candidate capable of consolidating both the progressive base and moderate swing voters.
Maine remains a politically nuanced state, and Collins’ longstanding reputation for independence should not be underestimated. However, if Democrats are looking for a candidate who combines fundraising strength, narrative appeal, and generational contrast, Platner currently appears to offer the most dynamic challenge.
The House Landscape
ME-01: A Safe Democratic Hold
In the 1st Congressional District, Chellie Pingree is expected to seek reelection and remains heavily favored. The Portland-based district is solidly Democratic and unlikely to shift in 2026.
ME-02: An Open and Competitive Seat
The more dynamic contest lies in the 2nd District. Representative Jared Golden, a 43-year-old Marine Corps veteran first elected in 2018, has built a reputation as one of the more moderate Democrats in the House. Golden notably flipped a district that had supported Trump and has navigated its swing-state tendencies through careful positioning.
With Golden stepping away, ME-02 becomes an open seat, and therefore more competitive. The district has a history of ticket-splitting and includes large rural areas that have leaned Republican in federal races. While Democrats maintain statewide control at the state level, margins remain tight, and the 2nd District cannot be assumed safe.
My pick to replace Golden is Jordan Wood.
Wood, 36, has significantly outraised other candidates in the field, bringing in millions more than his competitors. In an open-seat race, particularly one expected to draw national attention, that financial advantage matters. It signals both institutional confidence and access to national donor networks. His background as a congressional staffer also provides a different profile from traditional state-level politicians, offering both federal policy experience and connections in Washington that could translate into campaign infrastructure and outside support.
Fundraising does not guarantee victory, but in a toss-up district, the ability to define oneself early and fund sustained voter outreach can be decisive.
Looking toward the general election, ME-02 remains highly competitive. The district has supported both Trump and Golden in recent cycles, underscoring its independent streak. However, midterm elections often hinge on national political climate. If Republican approval numbers remain underwater and voter dissatisfaction with Washington persists, Democrats could benefit from a favorable environment.
It is also worth noting that presidential-level turnout coalitions do not always replicate in midterms. If Republican base enthusiasm softens without a presidential race at the top of the ticket, Democrats may find a narrow but viable path to retaining the seat.
That said, this race should be viewed as a true toss-up. The district is not structurally Democratic, and any nominee will need to compete aggressively in rural counties while maximizing turnout in population centers.
Still, given fundraising strength, federal experience, and potential national tailwinds, Wood appears well positioned to secure the Democratic nomination and mount a competitive general election campaign. If Democrats are to hold ME-02 in 2026, he currently looks like their strongest bet.
Overall
Still, Maine’s overall political climate gives Democrats structural advantages. If national conditions in 2026 favor the party, particularly amid continued volatility surrounding a second Trump presidency, Democrats could overperform relative to 2024 levels. In a Senate environment where control often hinges on one or two seats, Maine represents one of the clearest Democratic pickup opportunities on the map.
Given the Senate filibuster and the 60-vote threshold required to advance major legislation, even a single seat like Maine could carry outsized national consequences.
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates & races at all levels: https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_elections,_2026
- Maine Morningstar provides coverage of news in the Pine Tree State- https://mainemorningstar.com/
- Real Clear Politics polling for Maine Senate Race- https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/maine/collins-vs-platner
- Platner Launch Video- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53bZ_95nDjk
- Jordan Wood Launch Video- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jY6oanS7eM4
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Kentucky (Brief #14)
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series | Morgan Davidson | February 21, 2026
In Kentucky, the Bluegrass State, voters will decide one U.S. Senate race and all six U.S. House seats in 2026. The marquee contest follows the retirement of Mitch McConnell, ending decades of Republican leadership in Washington. McConnell’s tenure included serving as Senate Majority Leader and playing a central role in shaping the modern federal judiciary. His relationship with former President Donald Trump deteriorated following the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, limiting his standing within the party’s populist wing, but his institutional influence remained significant through the end of his career.
For Democrats, McConnell’s departure removes a deeply entrenched incumbent with statewide name recognition and an established fundraising apparatus. That alone reshapes the strategic landscape. However, Kentucky remains structurally Republican at the federal level. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky since 1992, and Republican presidential candidates routinely carry the state by wide margins.
Democrats do retain a foothold in statewide politics. Governor Andy Beshear has won two terms, demonstrating that a coalition rooted in urban centers like Louisville and Lexington, combined with targeted outreach to rural voters, can succeed under the right conditions. Still, at the federal level, Kentucky’s partisan baseline favors Republicans, meaning Democrats face an uphill battle in their attempt to compete for McConnell’s open seat.
Of Kentucky’s six U.S. House seats, only one is currently held by a Democrat: Morgan McGarvey, who represents the Louisville-anchored 3rd Congressional District. McGarvey, first elected in 2022, is seeking just his second term and is widely expected to retain the seat. The district is heavily urban and Democratic-leaning, making it the party’s most secure federal foothold in the state.
The remaining five seats are held by Republicans, including figures such as James Comer in the 1st District and Thomas Massie in the 4th District, both of whom represent strongly conservative constituencies. Democratic challengers have filed across all five Republican-held districts, though only two races are expected to feature contested Democratic primaries.
The recruitment bench, however, remains relatively thin. Unlike in top-tier battleground states, Kentucky Democrats are not fielding a wave of high-profile or heavily financed challengers in most districts. That reality underscores the structural challenge the party faces at the federal level.
Still, broader political dynamics could shape margins. If national conditions deteriorate for Republicans, particularly if former President Donald Trump experiences sustained approval declines, Democratic candidates could outperform historical baselines. Governor Andy Beshear’s statewide success demonstrates that coalition-building beyond the urban core is possible. However, Kentucky’s federal voting patterns remain reliably Republican, meaning true House flips would require both a favorable national environment and unusually strong local candidates.
Kentucky’s primary election is scheduled for May 19, with the general election set for November 3.
Senate Race
The Senate race is headlined by Charles Booker & Amy McGrath. With Senator Mitch McConnell retiring, Kentucky Democrats are facing a rare open-seat opportunity. While the state’s federal partisan baseline remains Republican, the Democratic primary will determine whether the party nominates a progressive mobilizer or a more establishment-profile candidate with broader statewide exposure.
Charles Booker
Among Democrats, Charles Booker currently appears to have early momentum. Recent polling places him around 30 percent in the Democratic primary, giving him a measurable advantage in a field where a significant portion of voters remain undecided. In a fragmented contest, that early positioning matters.
Booker is a former state representative from Louisville and a repeat statewide candidate, having previously run for the U.S. Senate in 2022. His prior campaigns have built name recognition, particularly among progressive voters and in urban centers such as Louisville and Lexington. That existing base gives him organizational durability and the potential to consolidate support as undecided primary voters begin to break.
If Booker maintains his early lead, his path to the nomination will depend on expanding beyond his progressive core while preserving the grassroots energy that has defined his past campaigns.
Amy McGrath
Amy McGrath represents the other major Democratic profile in the race. A retired Marine fighter pilot, McGrath previously ran against McConnell in 2020 in what became the most expensive Senate race in Kentucky history. Though unsuccessful, that campaign provided her with statewide infrastructure, fundraising networks, and significant name recognition.
McGrath’s military credentials and national fundraising connections position her as a candidate capable of appealing to moderate voters and independents. Her messaging has centered on protecting democratic institutions, economic fairness, and restoring political norms, themes that could resonate beyond the Democratic base if the general election environment tightens.
In early polling, McGrath trails Booker but remains within the top tier of Democratic contenders. Her viability will hinge on whether Democratic primary voters prioritize grassroots momentum or perceived general election competitiveness.
At this stage in the race, Charles Booker appears to be the most likely Democratic nominee, and, in my estimation, the candidate who gives Democrats their clearest path to overperforming in November.
Recent polling places Booker ahead in the Democratic primary by approximately 11 points as of late January, an increase from a narrower 3-point advantage in October. While early surveys showed a more competitive contest, particularly when Amy McGrath retained stronger initial support, her numbers have declined as the undecided share of the electorate has grown from roughly 31 percent to 43 percent. Importantly, no other Democratic candidate has broken into double digits, reinforcing Booker’s position as the field’s early leader.
Democratic voters have not fully consolidated behind Booker, but the structure of a primary electorate may favor him. More engaged, ideologically motivated voters tend to turn out in midterm primaries, and Booker’s progressive profile gives him an advantage among that bloc. If undecided voters begin to align as the race becomes more defined, Booker is well-positioned to expand his lead.
Booker also enters the race without having directly faced Mitch McConnell in a general election, avoiding the political baggage associated with running against one of the most entrenched Republican figures in modern Senate history. Instead, Booker previously challenged Rand Paul, allowing him to build statewide name recognition without being defined solely through a McConnell-centric contest. That distinction could matter at the margins. With McConnell stepping aside, some traditional Republicans and right-leaning independents may be recalibrating their loyalties. Booker is not tethered to a high-profile, polarizing clash with McConnell, which may reduce entrenched opposition among voters who were personally aligned with McConnell’s leadership style but are uneasy with the direction of the party’s MAGA wing.
That said, Kentucky remains structurally Republican at the federal level. Regardless of the Democratic nominee, flipping the seat will require both a favorable national environment and an ability to expand beyond the party’s urban base. Still, among the current field, Booker combines early polling strength, grassroots enthusiasm, and statewide familiarity in a way that gives Democrats their strongest opportunity to compete for this open Senate seat.
House Races
Again, Morgan McGarvey, who represents the Louisville-anchored 3rd Congressional District, should continue to do so in 2026. That said, I want to focus on the democrats 2 other best chances at gaining power in the bluegrass state.
KY-06: The Most Plausible Democratic Target
Beyond Louisville’s safely Democratic 3rd District, Kentucky Democrats face steep terrain at the federal level. Still, one district stands out as the most realistic opportunity if national conditions tighten: the Lexington-anchored 6th Congressional District.
Currently represented by Andy Barr, KY-06 is the most competitive district in the state outside of Louisville. Although Barr has consistently secured reelection, the district’s demographic composition gives Democrats their clearest opening to narrow Republican margins.
The 6th District includes Fayette County, home to the University of Kentucky and a growing suburban electorate. Compared to much of the state, it contains a higher concentration of college-educated voters and suburban households, demographics that have shown increased volatility in recent federal elections.
Democratic statewide candidates, including Governor Andy Beshear, have performed competitively in the district, demonstrating that crossover appeal is possible under the right political environment. While that success has not yet translated to a congressional flip, it signals that KY-06 is not as structurally rigid as other Kentucky districts.
For Democrats to seriously contest the seat, three conditions would likely need to align:
- Persuasion-focused messaging aimed at suburban voters, particularly around economic stability, healthcare access, and cost-of-living concerns.
- Strong turnout in Lexington paired with improved margins in surrounding counties.
- A favorable national environment that compresses Republican advantages across suburban districts.
If Democrats are going to flip a seat in Kentucky in 2026, KY-06 remains the most plausible path. Within the Democratic field Cherlynn Stevenson, appears to have the stronger structural profile over Zach Dembo.
Stevenson, 49, brings legislative experience and has cultivated strong connections with voters throughout the district, positioning herself as a seasoned Democratic contender. She has navigated competitive races before and understands the electoral terrain, a key advantage in a district where persuasion margins and turnout operations will determine viability. Her fundraising network reflects a broad base of contributors, suggesting meaningful grassroots engagement.
Dembo may report higher cash on hand and backing from larger donors, which can provide early campaign infrastructure. However, in a district like KY-06, sustained voter contact and local credibility may prove more valuable than headline fundraising totals.
If Democrats intend to mount a serious challenge to Barr, Stevenson’s combination of experience, district-level familiarity, and grassroots fundraising could position her as the more durable general election nominee.
KY-04: The next best shot
Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, represented by Thomas Massie, stretches across Northern Kentucky along the Cincinnati metropolitan corridor. The district is reliably Republican, and Massie has cultivated a strong ideological brand with a loyal conservative following. Compared to KY-06, this race is a significantly longer shot for Democrats. Still, there are structural dynamics worth monitoring.
The district includes suburban communities economically and culturally tied to Cincinnati. In recent cycles, suburban shifts nationally have narrowed Republican margins in some comparable districts. If national political conditions tighten, particularly among college-educated or moderate suburban voters, performance gaps could shrink.
There is also the broader question of Republican coalition dynamics. If anti-establishment sentiment intensifies within the GOP base or fractures emerge between libertarian-leaning and populist factions, a disciplined Democratic campaign could theoretically benefit at the margins. However, defeating Massie outright would likely require a pronounced political wave. His entrenched brand and consistent support make KY-04 one of the more difficult targets on the Democratic map.
Within the Democratic primary, Melissa Strange appears to hold the stronger early position relative to Jesse Brewer. Strange has articulated a message tailored to suburban concerns and has outraised Brewer in early fundraising reports. While neither candidate currently appears positioned to unseat Massie absent a significant national shift, Strange’s financial edge and clearer messaging framework may give her the better structural footing if Democrats aim to maximize competitiveness.
Ultimately, KY-04 remains a high-bar contest. But if Democrats are seeking to expand the map beyond Lexington and Louisville, this is the district where modest overperformance could signal broader suburban movement.
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates & races at all levels: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2026
- NY Times coverage of polling in Kentucky- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/kentucky-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html
- The Bottom Line News covers the political happenings in the Bluegrass State- https://kychamberbottomline.com/
- Charles Booker clip- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l20cxrPX_iw
- Cherlynn Stevenson clip- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fuYeRRwcPA
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Louisiana (Brief #13)
2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series | Nate Iglehart | February 23, 2026
For a state that is often considered a Republican stronghold, Louisiana has more political complexity than a surface-level glance. It certainly leans red; that much is sure given the state has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 2000 and Republicans hold nearly every statewide elected office and a majority in the statehouse. With Republican Governor Jeff Landry elected in 2023, the state has pushed further and further right on issues regarding abortion, education, and immigration. However, there is an interesting political divide between Republican rural areas and urban Democratic strongholds like New Orleans. Notably, there is a 37%-35% split when it comes to registered Democrats and Republicans respectively, meaning that in most recent elections, some registered Democrats are voting for Republican candidates.
Demographically, Louisiana is facing population decline and stagnation since 2021. Most residents are white and Protestant, although 32.6% are African American and Catholics also make up a non-trivial cohort. Economically, the state is focused heavily on seafood, farming, and energy sectors, although there is also a small tech and film industry mainly in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Louisiana ranked as the third-least educated state as of 2023 despite having over 40 universities including Tulane University.
In the world of elections, Louisiana has had a busy few years. A 2022 version of the state’s congressional maps was found unconstitutional, due to the state having six seats in the U.S. House of Representatives but only one favoring a Black candidate in a state where nearly a third of the population is Black. In 2024, Republican state lawmakers drew a second majority-Black U.S. House district, but this map has faced legal challenges. This case was supposed to have been ruled on by the U.S. Supreme Court, but the court instead asked for a second round of legal arguments and will likely release a ruling later this spring. This has given time for the current six-district map to be cemented for the 2026 midterms. The primary elections will be held on May 16, with the general election taking place on November 3.
Currently, the two Senators are Republican Bill Cassidy, who is up for election and is facing primary challenges over his decision to vote to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial, and Republican John Kennedy, who is not up for election. Despite his push against the MAGA movement, Cassidy has still racked up endorsements ranging from Drew Brees to Tim Scott and John Thune, on top of the monstrous $11,729,417 raised so far. While his main challenges will come from within his party, namely Julia Letlow and John Flemming, there are still two Democrats who might be able to snatch this seat.
First is Nick Albares, a nonprofit executive and former aide to Governor John Bel Edwards. With an undergraduate degree in theology from the University of Notre Dame and a Master of Public Policy degree from Georgetown University, he comes into this race bearing the most political training out of any other Democratic candidate. His platform focuses heavily on healthcare and social services, both areas he has worked in via his nonprofit work and his political work. His youth, at age 34, could be a positive factor in this race, alongside his political experience. But his name recognition is not strong, and his fundraising data is nonexistent so far. Additionally, his platform is extremely narrow and his media presence is somewhat lacking.
The other potential Democratic nominee for Senator is Jamie Davis, a farmer and candidate for Louisiana’s 21st House of Representatives district in 2023. A Louisiana native, he has worked in multiple fields including electrical engineering, farming, and serving on the Democratic State Central Committee. All of this work experience has endeared him with the rural and working class of Louisiana, as well as helping him to understand the larger issues at hand. Davis’ platform focuses on tax reform, affordable housing, healthcare as a basic human need, respecting the rule of law, higher teacher pay, and minimum wage increases. Notably, he also backs controlling immigration, a stance that will play well in a Republican state Davis’ chances are somewhat better than Albares’, in large part because his platform is broader, his connections to the local communities run deeper. However his fundraising efforts have yielded $16,865 so far. While far more money will be needed to win this race, it is better than any other Democratic candidate, and if the winds blow the right way, a split Republican primary could give him just enough room to win the seat.
In the House of Representatives, the current delegation (in ascending order from the 1st District) is Republican Steve Scalise, Democrat Troy Carter, Republican Clay Higgens, Republican Mike Johnson, Republican Julia Letlow, and Democrat Cleo Fields. The only district with a chance of flipping will likely be the 5th, as Letlow is resigning to challenge Bill Cassidy in the Senate race. This seat is being fought for by a wide range of candidates on both sides, and the district is the least red district in the state that is represented by a Republican (at a still formidable R+18). Out of the six races, these are the Democratic names to keep an eye out for:
- District 1: Lauren Jewett and Jim Long
- District 2: Troy Carter
- District 3: Tia LeBrun and Caleb Walker
- District 4: Conrad Cable and Matt Gromlich
- District 5: Jessee Fleenor and Larry Foy
- District 6: Cleo Fields
Most Competitive Districts for Democrats
There are only two real competitive seats in the state. The first is the 5th district, currently represented by Republican Julia Letlow, that currently sits at a R+18 rating. While that isn’t particularly confidence-boosting for Democrats, the fact that Letlow is running for the Senate seat means that this race has opened up even wider. This district faces a few major problems, mainly its 23.4% poverty rate and the fact that its biggest industries are healthcare, retail, and educational services. The seat has been represented by a Republican since 2014, but there are two main names aiming to change that in this district. The first is Jessee Fleenor, a farmer and a candidate for this district in 2018. His platform is a mix of economic populism, community solidarity, and traditional Democratic policy priorities tailored to a heavily rural district in northeast Louisiana. The other is Larry Foy, a faith-based community leader and social justice advocate who also has some progressive-tinged stances that pair well with his focus less on partisan politics and more on systemic issues. In a largely rural district, both of these candidates will be fighting an uphill battle, but if they can position themselves both as pragmatic candidates who will address the pressing healthcare crisis and economic stability, they both have a shot.
The other main district that Democrats will target is the 6th district, currently represented by Democrat Cleo Fields. While a Democrat-held seat might not seem like a competitive one, especially given the district’s D+8 rating, it has faced a lot of change recently. This has been one of the districts most affected by the congressional map legal debate mentioned earlier, and benefitted from most of Baton Rouge’s whiter and wealthier portions, along with Louisiana State University (LSU), being shifted to the 5th district. Any future debate will affect the competitiveness of this district, so it is important for Democrats to lock this seat down and gain momentum while they can. The district still contains a swath of Baton Rouge and is predominantly urban and Black. Much of its economy is heavily driven by services, healthcare, and industrial manufacturing, meaning any candidate will have to play to these industries in order to have a chance. Cleo Fields is still a very popular politician, and he will likely retain this seat, but his next term in office will likely be a busy one, balancing local issues with national-level crises.
Most Competitive Indiana Democrats in 2026
Jessee Fleenor: LA-5
Jesse Fleenor is a millennial candidate who bills himself as a “new generation of Blue-Dog Democrat.” A local dairy farmer, he tried to win this district in 2018 but fell short. Despite his rhetoric as a Blue-Dog moderate, many of his policies fall on the more progressive end. Fleenor frames his campaign around community values, unity, and everyday economic fairness rather than elite political talking points. His focuses are on eliminating billionaires, reigning in AI, universal healthcare, criminal justice reform, net neutrality, campaign finance reform, and environmental issues. These issues will be a bit of a gamble in a district that haasn’t seen a Democratic representative since 2014, but an open election in which there is no strong incumbent and a potentially split Republican vote could give him just enough wiggle room to connect with a population facing some of the worst of the most pressing modern issues. Republican leadership has helped foment the declining population and number of opportunities in the state and district, and Fleenor’s focus on something different, even if it is a host of progressive policies, could resonate with voters wanting a change. If he is able to win, it would be a statement win and could showcase the strength of progressivism in even the most red and rural districts.
Recent Interviews:
Louisiana Anthology Podcast: 283b. Jessee Fleenor
Larry Foy: LA-5
Larry Foy, 70, has an accomplished professional and public career in college and seminary instruction, pastoral ministry, social justice activism, public policy advocacy, non-profit management, and community organizing. From Chicago to LA, he has worked to implement policies and projects focusing on ending mass incarceration, racial inequality, and restorative justice. He also has a long history of serving as the Regional Director for the Interfaith Movement for Human Integrity, while also serving as a spiritual and denominational leader in the United Church of Christ. All of this nonprofit and religious work will play well in this district, which is one of the most religious districts in one of the most religious states. While his focus on criminal justice reform won’t necessarily resonate with his constituency, his heavy focus on expanding social services like healthcare, reforming government elections and campaign finance, protecting consumers, and funding public education certainly will help his chances. All of these issues are pressing for Louisiana voters, and could provide many avenues to alleviate the high poverty rate in this district. Alongside the electoral factors such as an open seat and a split Republican primary, Foy may also provide a new, progressive vision for a district in desperate need of a change.
Cleo Fields: LA-6
Rep. Cleo Fields has long been in politics. He previously represented Louisiana’s 4th congressional district from 1993 to 1997 and ran unsuccessfully for governor of Louisiana in 1995. After a long stint in the Louisiana State Senate, he finally returned to Congress in 2024 after winning just over 50% of the vote. Fields sits on the Committee on Financial Services, and has championed education, economic development, and community empowerment. His work writing the Delta Initiatives Act and founding the Congressional Classroom has been lauded by local leaders, and now he is set to retain his seat in this race. Fields’s platform is focused on economic justice and wages, quality education, expanding healthcare, and investing in community development and infrastructure. All four of these pillars will play well in this district, especially given his already good track record. With this district leaning blue already, and with Fields already having raised $384,055 with no real Republican contenders, this seat should be a safe blue seat.
Recent Interviews:
Congressmen Jonathan L. Jackson and Cleo Fields discuss SCOTUS w. Barbra Arnwine of TJC
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels:
- Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness:
- The Louisiana Illuminator is an independent, nonprofit, and nonpartisan news organization focused specifically on state government, policy, and elections: Louisiana Illuminator
The Expanding Web: ICE Detention and the Machinery of Mass Removal (Social Justice Policy Brief #188)
Social Justice Policy Brief #188 | Inijah Quadri | February 24, 2026
Policy Issue Summary
The American immigration detention system is currently undergoing an unprecedented and rapid metamorphosis, transitioning from a network of civil holding centers into a massive carceral apparatus designed for industrial-scale deportation. As of February 2026, the number of individuals held in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody has reached a historic peak of over 70,000 people across 225 facilities nationwide. This surge represents a nearly 75 percent increase in the detained population since early 2025, fueled by the staggering 45 billion dollars in ICE funding authorized under the signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The administration’s current strategic roadmap aims to bring upwards of 108,000 detention beds online by the end of this year, with a long-term capacity target of 135,000 beds to facilitate the largest mass removal operation in the history of the United States.
While the current infrastructure is heavily concentrated in states like Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, and Florida, the geography of detention is aggressively expanding into the interior of the country. Recent reports indicate that ICE is actively negotiating to purchase and convert warehouses in major metropolitan areas, such as South Kansas City, and is eyeing shuttered state prisons like the Augusta Correctional Center in Virginia for reactivation. This expansion is not limited to traditional brick-and-mortar facilities; the administration has pioneered “soft-sided” tent cities on military bases, such as the massive camp in El Paso, which alone houses nearly 3,000 people daily. The purpose of this expansion is explicitly carceral, moving away from discretionary releases toward a “no-release” policy that forces individuals to remain in custody for the duration of their legal proceedings, effectively using detention as a tool of deterrence and attrition.
Analysis
The proliferation of these detention centers is not a response to a genuine public safety crisis, but rather the result of a deliberate fusion of political ideology and corporate profit. Data from the Cato Institute and other monitors reveal that the vast majority of those currently being swept into this net—over 70 percent—have no criminal record whatsoever. Instead, the system is being filled through aggressive community raids and “at-large” arrests that target families and long-term residents. This shift reveals that the primary utility of these centers is the physical “warehousing” of human beings to streamline their eventual removal, regardless of their ties to the country or the merits of their legal claims. By eliminating bond and parole options, the state exerts maximum psychological and physical pressure on detainees, hoping to coerce them into accepting deportation simply to escape the deteriorating and often deadly conditions within these facilities.
Central to this expansion is the “Carceral-Industrial Complex,” where private prison giants likeGEO Group and CoreCivic manage the majority of the detention beds. These corporations have seen their revenues and stock prices soar as they sign multi-million dollar contracts to reopen shuttered jails and operate new “mega-centers.” For these entities, the mass detention of migrants is a lucrative market opportunity, leading to a system where humane treatment is secondary to the bottom line. The lack of transparency in these private contracts has shielded facilities from accountability, even as reports of medical neglect and civil rights violations continue to mount. This profit motive incentivizes the continued expansion of the system, as corporations lobby for stricter enforcement and more beds to satisfy their investors, creating a self-perpetuating cycle of incarceration.
In response, a growing wave of resistance has emerged from local governments and civil society. Cities like Kansas City, Los Angeles, and Chicago have voiced fierce opposition to the placement of new centers, arguing that these facilities drain local resources, threaten public safety by eroding trust between immigrant communities and local law enforcement, and transform productive economic zones into carceral islands. Local leaders are increasingly viewing these centers as an unwanted federal imposition that disrupts the social fabric of their towns.
This resistance has evolved from localized grievances into a sophisticated national movement of “people-powered” blockades and sustained civil disobedience. In many metropolitan areas, grassroots coalitions—comprising faith leaders, labor unions, and neighborhood associations—have successfully weaponized the administrative process to stall or kill detention contracts. By packing city council meetings, launching massive “Not in Our City” campaigns, and organizing physical vigils at proposed sites, these activists have transformed the establishment of new centers from a quiet real estate transaction into a political liability. In South Kansas City and rural Virginia, for example, the sheer volume of public outcry forced local officials to reconsider zoning permits, proving that federal ICE funding cannot always override the collective will of a mobilized community.
The effectiveness of these protests lies in their ability to disrupt the “business as usual” model of the carceral-industrial complex. Beyond mere optics, these movements have exerted significant financial pressure on private contractors by targeting their investors and lenders, branding the “detention economy” as a toxic asset. In several high-profile cases throughout 2025, sustained protests and legal interventions led by local organizers resulted in the total abandonment of multi-million dollar “mega-center” projects before the first brick was laid. These victories demonstrate that while the federal government may have the capital to fund expansion, the actual footprint of the detention web is being restricted by a public that refuses to allow their communities to be used for mass deportation logistics.
Engagement Resources
Click or tap on the resource URL to visit links where available
Detention Watch Network (https://www.detentionwatchnetwork.org/): A national coalition that exposes the injustices of the U.S. immigrant detention system and advocates for the total abolition of immigration detention.
American Civil Liberties Union – National Prison Project (https://www.aclu.org/issues/prisoners-rights): Provides legal and advocacy resources focused on the conditions of confinement and the systemic expansion of the carceral state.
Freedom for Immigrants (https://www.freedomforimmigrants.org/): Operates a national hotline and monitoring system to document abuses in ICE detention and provides direct support to those currently held in the system.
National Immigration Justice Center (https://immigrantjustice.org/): Offers legal services to detained individuals and leads policy litigation to challenge the “no-release” and mass detention frameworks.
TRAC Immigration (https://tracreports.org/immigration/): A nonpartisan research center at Syracuse University that provides up-to-the-minute data on ICE detention populations, facility locations, and enforcement trends.
American Immigration Council (https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/): Conducts research and litigation to hold ICE accountable for the rapid and opaque expansion of its detention network.
Blue States Initiate Legal Pushback After Administration Overturns Endangerment Finding (Environment Policy Brief #190)
Environment Policy Brief #190 | Jason Collins | February 24, 2026
Summary
Federal climate regulation is at risk as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rescinded the 2009 “endangerment finding” on February 12, 2026. The EPA called the engagement finding “the single largest deregulatory action in U.S. history.” States like California and Wisconsin, as well as several organizations, are preparing for a legal battle that could eventually reach the Supreme Court, which could take years. They argue that the U.S. could be left with far less ability to regulate emissions at a national level.
Analysis
The 2009 engagement finding is a scientific determination that is a prerequisite for implementing greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors. Without this finding, the EPA will lack statutory authority to prescribe regulatory standards to protect public health from greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).
During a news conference, President Donald Trump had said, “We are officially terminating the so-called endangerment finding, a disastrous Obama-era policy.” He added, “This determination had no basis in fact — none whatsoever. And it had no basis in law. On the contrary, over the generations, fossil fuels have saved millions of lives and lifted billions of people out of poverty all over the world.”
The agency is removing all vehicle greenhouse gas emissions standards, with Trump calling them “ridiculous.” Without this finding, most U.S. policies aimed at curbing climate change are fundamentally at risk. Power plant and industrial regulations, as well as oil and gas sector standards, are at risk. While the EPA rescinded the finding, it reasserted that federal preemption still applies to state laws, which prevents states from enforcing their own standards.
The U.S. Climate Alliance, which is led by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, called the repeal “unlawful, ignores basic science, and denies reality.”
States and climate organizations have slammed the agency’s rejection of the finding and are preparing for a battle in the courts. A broad coalition of health and environmental groups, such as the American Public Health Association, American Lung Association, Alliance of Nurses for a Healthy Environment, Clean Wisconsin, represented by Clean Air Task Force, has sued the EPA.
Environmental advocates have warned about the consequences of the repeal beyond legal debates. Michelle Roos, executive director of the Environmental Protection Network, explained, “Communities across the country will bear the brunt of this decision — through dirtier air, higher health costs and increased climate harm.”
The American Geophysical Union released a statement calling the repeal “a rejection of established science, a denial of the struggles we are facing today, and a direct threat to our collective future.”
Trump’s administration has maintained that the repeal would boost the coal industry. Still, with the EPA’s responsibilities removed, legal experts warn it could open the door for litigants to sue companies for damages linked to their greenhouse gas emissions. The repeal is more than a regulatory tweak. It’s the removal of the legal spine of federal climate policy and the start of a lengthy court battle.
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