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Foreign Policy Brief #224 | Abran C. | December 30, 2025

Latin America’s shift to the right

Latin America’s shift towards the political right has continued following the recent elections in both Chile and Honduras. In Chile the election of the far-right Jose Antonio Kast marked the country’s most significant shift rightward since the former Chilean dictator, Agusto Pinochet. The election of Kast now makes three neighboring South American states formerly at odds, Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, firmly in control by the rightwing and all seeking closer relations with the United States. In Honduras the Trump backed candidate, Nasry Asfura has been declared the winner after a more than two week long vote count left those in the small Central American country in suspense. Following the election results, the opposing Liberal Party candidate, Salvador Nasralla refused to concede and alleged interference in the election process by the United States after President Trump conditioned continued aid to the country on whether the right-wing candidate won. Trump also pardoned the former Honduran President found guilty of trafficking drugs to the United States.

The region has firmly moved away from its left-leaning majority after the second “pink tide” (term used to refer to the leftward shift of countries in Latin America) that swept the region in the late 2010s and early 2020s. Economic crisis, migration and violence that has continued to plague the region and anti-status quo sentiment has led to the political reversal. In 2026 the region has elections in Costa Rice, Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Haiti to look forward to.

Cambodia’s Defense Minister Tea Seiha, left, and Thailand’s Defense Minister Nattaphon Narkphanit hold documents during the special General Border Committee meeting at a border checkpoint in Thailand’s Chanthaburi province.Agence Kampuchea Press / AFP Photo

Thailand and Cambodia sign ceasefire deal (Again)

Last week Thailand and Cambodia signed another ceasefire agreement that seeks to end weeks of fighting that began after the former July 2025 ceasefire deal was broken. The two countries blame each other for instigating the fresh round of fighting, which has spread to nearly every province along their border. Cambodia’s Defence Ministry said Thailand’s military struck first, carrying out a heavy bombardment of disputed border areas. Meanwhile Thai media claimed that Cambodian forces had launched heavy attacks overnight along the disputed border, where many homes were damaged by shelling.

Both countries claim to have acted in self-defence and accuse the other of attacking civilians. Yet since breaking the ceasefire deal, the two neighbours’ combined killed more than 40 people, according to official counts. About a million people have also been displaced. The conflict stems from a territorial dispute over the colonial-era demarcation of their 500 mile long frontier and a collection of temple ruins situated there.

A firefighter walks at the site where a Russian drone struck a residential building during a night of Russian drone and missile attacks, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Dec. 27, 2025. Photo by Thomas Peter/Reuters

New round of attacks on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv

Russia launched a new wave of strikes on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv in the final days of the year. The strikes killed one person and wounded 27 just one day before a meeting between Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump.  The two leaders met in Florida last week for further talks on ending the near four year long war. Zelenskyy described the attacks as evidence of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s false narrative on seeking peace. Zelenskyy stated “This attack is Russia’s answer to our peace efforts. It really shows that Putin doesn’t want peace,”.

The Russian ministry in turn said the strike was in response to Ukraine’s attacks on “civilian objects” in Russia. The past few weeks saw  targeted bomb attacks in Moscow that killed Lt. General Fanil Sarvarov. General Sarvarov was the head of the Operational Training Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff. Since the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine, Russian authorities have blamed Kyiv for several high-profile assassinations of military officers and public figures in Russia. Ukraine has claimed responsibility for some of them, but has not yet commented on either of the recent attacks.

A missile is launched from a military vessel at an unidentified location, in this screen grab obtained from a handout video released by the Department of War on December 25, 2025. U.S. Department Of War Via X, Via REUTERS

US airstrikes inside of Nigeria

The US has carried out air strikes in Nigeria targeting two Islamic State-linked camps in the Bauni forest of the country’ s Sokoto State. The strikes are the outcome of a months-long tense diplomatic clash between the West African nation and the US that has morphed now into a new form of cooperation. The strikes were approved by Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and launched from maritime platforms domiciled in the Gulf of Guinea. Following the attacks, US President Donald Trump announced the strikes on Truth Social, saying that U.S. forces had launched strikes against Islamic State militants at the request of Nigeria’s government and laid out the reason for the attacks. Trump said it was based on claims of the group targeting Christians in the region and said there would be more military action to come. Nigeria’s foreign minister called the airstrikes a “new phase of an old conflict” and also said he expected more strikes to follow, stating “For us, it is something that has been ongoing,” referring to attacks that have targeted both Christians and Muslims in Nigeria for years.

Foreign Policy Brief #223 | Yelena Korshunov | December 30, 2025

In October 2025, U.S. Department of Homeland Security reported on its official website that more than 2 million undocumented immigrants had already left the United States — including 1.6 million who voluntarily self-deported and more than 527,000 who were forcefully deported. “This is just the beginning,” Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin proudly stated.

Among those being deported are a growing number of Russians, including dissidents, i.e. those who dared to speak out against the war in Ukraine. They had fled Russia to save their lives — seeking protection in a nation once regarded as a global stronghold of democracy. They have also found themselves caught in the ICE machinery. This summer, Russians were massively deported from the U.S. on at least two occasions.

The human rights organization Human Rights First reported that ICE Flight Monitor tracked two flights in June and August 2025 involving the transfer of detained Russian nationals from U.S. government custody to Egyptian authorities in Cairo. The organization noted that “recent reports indicate that Russian nationals aboard those two flights were subsequently forcibly returned by Egyptian authorities to Russia, including individuals who had been detained in the United States for over a year after seeking asylum.”

According to The Insider, the exact number of Russians deported was not immediately known. The only approximate figure available to date comes from late August 2025, when the United States deported at least 30 Russians—including political asylum seekers—in a single day.

Additionally, in early December 2025, another group of Russian political refugees was deported back to Russia, a country they had once been fortunate to escape. Upon arriving at Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport during the night of December 9, the men were immediately issued draft notices, according to a report by the independent Russian media resource Agenstvo, which cited Dmitry Valuyev, president of the organization Russian America for Democracy in Russia.

Valuyev believes the notices handed to the forcibly returned men most likely concern mandatory military registration or orders to appear at local enlistment offices. However, Agentstvo was unable to establish contact with any of the deported individuals.

News of the flight carrying deportees emerged on December 7. Valuyev noted that the precise number of Russians on the flight remains unknown. The BBC also reported on the deportations, revealing that on December 7 a plane departed from an airport in Mesa, Arizona, transporting  Russians and  Iranians removed from the U.S. Various media outlets estimate that there have already been three or four such “deportation flights” with Russians in 2025.  (ARE THESE THE

Among those deported earlier was Russian activist Leonid Melekhin, who had previously been detained multiple times in Russia for participating in protest actions. In August 2024, he crossed the Mexico–U.S. border and applied for political asylum. He spent several months in U.S. immigration detention, and his asylum request was ultimately denied, resulting in his deportation. In July 2025, upon Melekhin’s deportation to Russia, a court in a Russian city Perm arrested him charged with “justifying terrorism.”

Many other dissidents who have been deported back to Russia face terrifying consequences upon their return. For previously speaking out against the war, they will be thrown into prison and sent to penal colonies from which there is virtually no escape. The same fate awaits many of them as befell Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who recently died (or was killed) in a Russian penal colony.

Engagement Resources:

• DHS Removes More than Half a Million Illegal Aliens From US
• ,https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/10/27/dhs-removes-more-half-million-illegal-aliens-us 
• Asylum-Seeking Russians Deported From U.S. at Risk of Persecution and Forced Mobilization, Activists Warn, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/10/asylum-seeking-russians-deported-from-us-at-risk-of-persecution-and-forced-mobilization-activists-warn-a91389  (Independent News from Russia)
• ICE Flights Monitor: September 2025 Report, https://humanrightsfirst.org/library/ice-flight-monitor-september-2025-monthly-report/
• U.S. deports another group of Russians on ICE flight to Egypt, https://theins.ru/en/news/287546

Foreign Policy Brief #224 | Inijah Quadri | December 14, 2025

Policy Issue Summary

The July 2023 military takeover in Niger, led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani and the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP), marked a significant setback for democratic governance in the Sahel. However, the removal of President Mohamed Bazoum must be viewed not merely as an isolated authoritarian power grab, but as a catalyst for a profound geopolitical realignment. In the two years since the coup, the CNSP has systematically dismantled long-standing security frameworks, resulting in the expulsion of French forces in late 2023 and the complete withdrawal of United States military personnel and the closure of key drone bases by September 2024.

Concurrently, Niger has pivoted toward a new model of regional autonomy. In September 2023, Niger joined Mali and Burkina Faso to form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a pact designed to prioritize mutual defense and internal sovereignty over traditional Western partnerships. This shift culminated in the three nations’ formal exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025. While the rejection of democratic norms and the shift away from ECOWAS are concerning, they signal a deep-seated frustration with the status quo. The region remains volatile, but these developments underscore the urgent need to understand why long-standing US and Western engagement failed to secure stability or win the hearts and minds of the Nigerien people.

Analysis

The events in Niger serve as a critical wake-up call for Western policymakers.  Popular support for the CNSP suggests that the previous democratic arrangement was failing to deliver tangible benefits to the average citizen. For decades, Niger has been integrated into Western economic and security architectures—most notably through uranium exports to France—yet its population remains among the poorest in the world. The CNSP’s recent moves to reclaim control over mining assets, including the revocation of Orano’s operating licenses, resonate with a public that perceives a disconnect between their country’s resource wealth and their own economic reality.

From a US security perspective, the loss of Air Base 201 in Agadez, among other military bases in the region, is a strategic failure that demands introspection. The United States invested millions (possibly billions) of dollars into these installations to project power and counter terrorism. Yet, despite this massive expenditure of tax dollars and a decade of operations, violent extremism in the Sahel metastasized rather than receded.

This creates a painful paradox: The US presence was viewed by many locals not as a partnership for development, but as a militarized occupation that offered little in the way of economic uplift. By prioritizing a “security-first” approach over holistic economic development and governance, US policy inadvertently created a vacuum that the military junta has filled with populist rhetoric and new alliances.

The Niger  junta’s pivot toward Russia—evidenced by the arrival of military instructors and agreements for nuclear energy cooperation—is a direct challenge to American influence. However, dismissing this merely as “malign Russian influence” ignores the agency of African nations. Niger is seeking partners who they believe will offer better terms or more immediate security results. The failure of the “War on Terror” model in the Sahel suggests that without addressing root causes like poverty and lack of opportunity, military assistance alone is insufficient to sustain a democracy.

The lesson is clear: Democracy cannot just be a slogan; it must deliver results. The pivot in Niger is not simply anti-West, but a rejection of a policy framework that failed to improve the lives of Nigeriens. If the United States and France wish to champion democracy and counter the influence of authoritarian rivals like Russia, they must offer a value proposition that goes beyond drone bases and security assistance. Future engagement must respect Nigerien sovereignty while offering genuine economic partnerships that benefit the population, proving that democracy is the most viable path to prosperity.

Engagement Resources

• Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research (https://thetricontinental.org/): A global research institute that produces dossiers and analysis on the Sahel’s struggle for sovereignty, offering a perspective grounded in the needs of the working class and the Global South.
• Peoples Dispatch (https://peoplesdispatch.org/): A media project providing extensive coverage of the Alliance of Sahel States, offering on-the-ground reporting that counters mainstream Western narratives regarding the coups in West Africa.
• Black Agenda Report (https://www.blackagendareport.com/): A news and analysis outlet that consistently critiques US imperialism in Africa, providing detailed commentary on the role of AFRICOM and the political economy of the Sahel.
• Pan-Africanism Today (https://panafricantoday.com/): A secretariat coordinating solidarity with African struggles, which has organized conferences and webinars connecting the movements in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso with broader anti-imperialist networks.
• Urgences Panafricanistes (https://urpan-official.com/): An NGO led by Kemi Seba that campaigns against the CFA franc and French neocolonialism, playing a significant role in the civil society mobilization that supported the expulsion of foreign troops.

Foreign Policy Brief #223 | Abran C. | December 15, 2025

President Zelenskyy addressed the Swedish Parliament on Monday morning. www.president.gov.ua

Ukraine Peace deal?

Ukraine’s government has agreed to the core parts of a peace deal  brokered by the Trump administration to end the now nearly four year long war. US officials have been meeting with both the Russians and Ukrainians in order to secure an end to the war. The plan was presented as a 28 point peace plan but upon revision by the Ukrainian side has been revised to a 19 point peace plan that no longer includes items such as amnesty regarding acts committed during the war. Ukraine as part of the deal has agreed not to increase the size of its military and will not join NATO under the updated plan.

However, the main criticism of the proposed plan is the legitimation of Russian control over captured Ukrainian territory in Dobas and does not have popular support from Ukraine or its European allies. European officials have called for the inclusion of a demilitarized zone and the inclusion of an article of defense for Ukraine similar to NATO’s article 5 which calls for mutual defense of all members. The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskky recently stated as part of whether he would accept succeeding territory to Russia, “Are we considering giving up any territory? We have no legal right, under Ukrainian law, under our constitution, under international law, and honestly, we have no moral right, either”. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Ukrainian troops must withdraw from Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region or Russia would seize it, rejecting any compromise over handing captured territory back to Ukraine and throwing a wrench in any prospects for peace that require concessions from the Russian side over captured land.

Escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro addresses a crowd flanked by Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello (left) and his wife Cilia Flores during a rally in Caracas, Jan. 23, 2025.

Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu/Getty 

Amid the buildup of US military forces in the Caribbean the Trump administration has now moved to designate Cartel de los Sols as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) with Nicolas Maduro as the head. The new designation by the Trump administration is thought to be another indication that the administration is seeking to conduct strikes inside of Venezuela. Secretary of War/Defense Pete Hegseth recently said the FTO designation “gives more tools” to the Defense Department and “gives options” to the President.

The “Cartel de Los Soles” or Cartel of the Suns is a term used to describe groups within Venezuela’s armed forces implicated in a wide range of criminal activities, including gasoline smuggling, illegal mining, drug smuggling and other corruption schemes. It has only recently been used to describe an official formal drug cartel. Labelling an organisation as a terrorist group gives US law enforcement and military agencies broader powers to target and dismantle it. Over the last few days the Trump administration has declared the skies over Venezuela closed and airlines have halted flights in and out of the country. The Maduro government has criticized the moves by the US and dismissed drug trafficking accusations. Venezuela’s foreign ministry stated that it absolutely rejected the designation, which it describes as a “new and ridiculous lie”. Last week for the first time the US seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela and President Trump has repeatedly raised the likelihood of US military intervention in Venezuela.

Deadly Floods in Asia

A drone view of an area hit by deadly flash floods following heavy rains in Palembayan, Agam regency, West Sumatra province, Indonesia [Willy Kurniawan/Reuters]

Catastrophic floods and landslides have hit multiple countries leaving over a thousand dead and hundreds more missing. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Thailand have all been affected, with over 800 people reported missing and more than 1,400 declared dead. In Indonesia, the worst-hit country, washed-out roads and collapsed bridges have left rescuers struggling to reach some of the hardest-hit areas in North and Western Sumatra. Though unlike middle income countries such as Indonesia or Thailand, Sri Lanka has been less able to react to the floods devastation. Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister, Harini Amarasuriya, met with diplomats from the region to appeal to them to support the country’s relief and reconstruction efforts. Countries such as India, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates have launched efforts to provide aid.

Three Typhoon storms hit the region in quick succession, Typhoon Koto which moved from the Philippines towards Vietnam, Cyclone Senyar, a rare storm that spun up in the narrow Strait of Malacca and lashed Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand and Tropical Cyclone Ditwah, which crossed Sri Lanka and India’s south-east coast. All of these storms in unison cause the massive flooding and loss of life witnessed in recent days. Water temperatures are reported to be warmer than normal in the region, warmer ocean temperatures provide more energy for storms. Climate scientists expect the frequency and ferocity of these storms to be a new normal.

Congo-Rawanda peace deal

U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he hosts the signing ceremony of a peace deal with the President of Rwanda Paul Kagame (L) and the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Felix Tshisekedi (R) at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC, on Dec. 4, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds—AFP/Getty Images

Last week, President Donald Trump hailed a “historic” peace deal dubbed the “Washington Accords for Peace and Prosperity” between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. The deal brokered by the US and Qatar is a reaffirmed commitment to a US brokered deal signed in June which itself had failed to quell fighting. The two nations have had brewing conflicts over the past 30 years, but the violence sharply escalated in early 2025 after Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seized large parts of mineral-rich eastern DRC. The Trump administration has spearheaded talks between DR Congo and Rwanda, hoping that resolving the fighting would allow the US to increase investments in the resource rich region. However, even after the signing of the deal deadly clashes have marred efforts to begin implementing the terms of the agreement. The United States has accused Rwanda of fueling the instability and continued fighting. More than 400 civilians have been killed following the recent surge in fighting as the Rwanda-backed M23 armed group continues its offensive in South Kivu province in the eastern DRC.

Australia social media ban for minors

The teen social media ban will come into effect for some platforms today. (ABC News: Lindsay Dunbar)

Australia has become one of the first countries in the world to ban social media platforms from allowing children 16 and under from having accounts. While the law officially kicks in on December 10, Meta has already begun removing Instagram, Threads and Facebook accounts in order to comply with the new law. At the time of writing, the law applies to only ten major sites and platforms Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, X (formerly Twitter), YouTube, Reddit, Twitch, Kick and Threads. These companies, should they fail to comply with the removal of underaged accounts, would face fines of up to 50 million Australian dollars or $33 million USD.

The companies have been provided with a number of options for determining the age of users, the most common being an online scan of a users ID such as a drivers license. The Australian eSafety Commissioner will be sending the 10 platforms notices on Dec. 11 demanding information on the numbers of accounts removed. The Malaysian government has followed suit and said it would also ban social media accounts for children younger than 16 starting in 2026. Additionally the European Commission, France, Denmark, Greece, Romania and New Zealand have all also expressed interest in setting a minimum age for social media.