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“March for Justice” in Russia Broke Illusion of Putin’s Power
Brief #81 – Foreign Policy Brief
by Yelena Korshunov
The “March for Justice”, announced by the head of Wagner mercenary forces, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on the evening of June 23rd, ended as suddenly as it began.
The Republican Presidential Candidates Positions on Education and Immigration
Brief #83 – Elections & Politics Policy Brief
by Abigail Hunt
On educational policies, some candidates have supported an influx of monies to boost their state’s educational outcomes, and most candidates support funneling federal and state funds to private schools as well as public…
Google Profits from Barriers to Abortion Access
Brief #91 – Technology Policy Brief
by Mindy Spatt
A Google search for abortion services will often serve up just the opposite- ‘Pregnancy Crisis Centers’ and other fake clinics dedicated to preventing abortions rather than providing them.
Indicted Again: Breaking Down the Classified Documents Case Against Donald Trump
Brief #82 – Elections & Politics Policy Brief
by Arvind Salem
On June 8, 2023, Donald Trump became the first president in history to face federal criminal charges.
The Week That Was: Global News in Review
Brief #80 – Foreign Policy
by Abran C
At least 79 people have died with many more missing after a fishing boat carrying refugees and migrants sank off the southern coast of Greece last week.
The Country’s Debt Ceiling is Some Students’ Floor
Brief #84 – Education Policy
by Steve Piazza
President Biden’s announcement to forgive all or portions of qualified students’ loans came as a relief to some and an outrage to others.
The Spread of Political Misinformation and How to Stop It
Brief #81 – Elections & Politics Policy
by Rudolph Lurz
On December 4th, 2016, Edgar Welch drove several hours from his North Carolina home and entered the Comet Ping Pong pizza restaurant in Washington, D.C. carrying an AR-15 rifle.
Examining the Impeachment of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton
Brief #80 – Elections & Politics Policy
by Ian Milden
The Texas State House voted to impeach state Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 27th after a lengthy and quiet investigation by a bipartisan state house committee.
Wetlands Protection Under Attack as a Result of New Supreme Court Decision
Brief #155 – Environment Policy
by Todd J. Broadman
SCOTUS has been taking up cases that concern the scope of EPA (as well as other agencies’) authority. The Court’s ruling on a recent case – Sackett vs. EPA – will have environmental protection implications for decades to come.
A Third of the Population Continue to Cook our Planet
A Third of the Population Continue to Cook our Planet
Environment Policy Brief #153 | By: Todd J Broadman | March 13, 2023
Header photo taken from: iStockphoto
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Photo taken from: Reuters / Danish Siddiqui
Policy Summary
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The methods that many humans apply to cooking their food are proving to have a substantial effect on our environment and health. About 2.4 billion people cook food using a “dirty” biomass method of cooking which uses wood, animal dung, and charcoal fire pits or kerosene stoves. There are two long-term impacts of this approach: the last of our forests are depleted, and the fumes contribute 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions, or the annual equivalent of 1.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide. In quantity, this ranks alongside the burning of jet fuel for planes.
There are also the human health effects. The use of charcoal gives off particulate matter and soot contributing to widespread illness and an estimated 3.8 million premature deaths. Families that rely on firewood must spend many hours each week collecting it; time that prevents women from more gainful employment and children from their education. Then there is the risk – when gathering wood in remote areas – of violence to women and children.
One alternative to “dirty” cooking is the use of electricity. “Over these years, we’ve come to the conclusion that the really big potential game changer—indeed, we think it is far more than ‘potential’—is electricity,” explains Research Director, Ed Brown, of Modern Energy Cooking Services. But cleaner fuels like electricity are being deployed slowly and not at the rate required. Between 2010 and 2020, an estimated 1.3 billion people were added to the electric grid. Asia has made more progress than other regions.
Another relatively clean alternative is liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and related stove technologies. Yet even here we see a usage increase of only 1% per year from 2010-2019, and it is confined to limited regions within Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan.
Policy Analysis
There is a need for coordinated solutions. Otherwise, efforts to replenish degraded forests will prove futile if communities near to those forests depend on biomass for their cooking. Instances in which the rate of wood collection outstrips the regrowth rate of forests are common. The need is most acute in sub-Saharan Africa where only 10% of the population has access to clean cooking alternatives; in East Asia that number is 36%, and in Latin America and the Caribbean, 56%.
There are cultural obstacles as well. In families where men are the decision makers, they often opt not to use clean cookstoves for financial reasons, in spite of the fact that women and children are most impacted. Firewood and animal dung arrive with no hard dollar cost, only the time and labor of those tasked with obtaining it. In addition, many countries subsidize the cost of kerosene fuel.
When India embarked on a massive rural effort to distribute millions of LPG cylinders for cooking, they discovered that less than 20% of families could afford to refill those cylinders and over half of recipients defaulted back to using biomass fuels.
A similar project to provide villages with electric power for cooking largely failed due to residents being unable to afford the cost of electricity as well as the instability of the power grid.
Photo taken from: Unicef
(click or tap to enlargen)
The World Bank has established a clean cooking loan program with $350 million dollars that targets projects in 21 countries, helping over 3.6 million households. The money makes it possible for some families to afford stoves and other equipment. Countries include: Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Kenya, Lao PDR, Madagascar, Mongolia, Rwanda, and Uganda.
Engagement Resources
Click or tap on resource URL to visit links where available
https://cleancooking.org/ works with a global network of partners to build an inclusive industry that can make clean cooking accessible to all.
https://www.esmap.org/clean-cooking-fund a clean cooking fund that aims to scale up public and private investments by co-financing with Multi-lateral Development Bank’s lending operations, catalyzing technology and business innovation, and linking incentives with verified results.
https://www.theearthandi.org/ educates readers on how to best restore our unique role as loving stewards of the natural world.
Facing the Dubious Paradigm of School Shooting Responses
Facing the Dubious Paradigm of School Shooting Responses
Education Policy Brief #61 | By: Steve Piazza | March 7, 2023
Header photo taken from: Giffords Courage to Fight Gun Violence
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Photo taken from: Jewel Samad / Getty Images
Policy Summary
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In response to a spate of shooting incidents in schools over the last several decades, state and local governments have attempted a number of ways to keep students safe.
At the federal level, The STOP School Violence Act (2018) has awarded hundreds of millions of dollars in grants, and will provide funding to schools through 2028. Congress has also introduced several other violence prevention bills, like H.R.5428 (2021) and S.4968 (2022), but to date, none have seen much additional substantive action beyond introduction.
Meanwhile, more than 40 states have taken action and do require some sort of preparation for a violent threat. As a result, 95% of K-12 schools across the country currently have active shooter drills.
Policy Analysis
Since American public schools first came into existence almost 200 years ago, safety for students and teachers have been a concern and preventive practices have evolved. Tragic incidents like the fatal fires at the Lake View School in Collinwood, Ohio (1908) and Chicago’s Our Lady of the Angels School (1958) resulted not only in structural changes around school buildings but in fire drills that have been refined and become part of a school’s routine on the calendar.
During the 1950’s and 60’s as Cold War threats of nuclear attack were looming, students were subject to readiness sessions that had them climbing underneath desks and placing their heads between their knees. In time, these drills went out of fashion, but similar severe weather drills are still not uncommon, especially in many places that are prone to tornadoes.
And now, with the amount of gun violence that’s been plaguing schools for several decades, we find we have entered a new era defining safety in schools. In 1994, Congress passed the Gun Free Schools Act that required expulsion for public school students caught carrying a weapon in school, though many believed it didn’t go far enough.
Shooting after shooting continued and following each tragedy, renewed calls for solutions to prevent more violence emerged. These include passing stricter gun laws, arming teachers, increasing the number of police officers on campus, implementing red flag alert protocols to identify students or others in the community who may pose a potential threat, and so on. Yet without fail, debates about law and policy would immediately become highly politicized and the already deepening divide would result in continued inaction.
This began to change somewhat in 2018 when, following the shooting deaths of 17 at Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, Congress was able to pass the STOP Act, though only after making it part of an omnibus bill. Soon after, other steps outside Congress were taken.
Infographic taken from: Everytown Research (.org)
(click or tap to enlargen)
The Homeland Security Department now has resources in place that pertain to school and workplace violence, resources that include threat assessments and mitigations. Some colleges, like St. Mary’s College of Maryland, promote certain protocols, like Run Hide, Fight, if an active shooter is present. Washington state’s Department of Education has published a guide for emergencies.
As active shooter drills have become ubiquitous, many feel that using certain extreme drills takes its toll on who they’re attempting to protect: students. Controversial programs like Alert, Lockdown, Inform, Counter and Evacuate (ALICE) that use realistic role playing have caused authorities to be concerned about the harm they actually cause to students.
Opposition to such drills has been supported by research. For example, the Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund (Everytown) collaborated on a report with the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) and the National Education Association (NEA).
The report concluded that there’s no evidence active shooter drills are effective in preventing incidents or assuring safety. However, it did reveal significant increases in emotional issues, such as depression, stress, and anxiety, as well as physiological health problems for many.
Politicians have taken notice of these dangers. In 2020, Washington Democratic Governor Jay Inslee signed a law requiring that any preventive measures cannot cause developmental or emotional harm. In June 2021, Governor Greg Abbott of Texas approved SB 168, which calls for amongst other things, the “creation of a safe zone around the exercise area to exclude weapons, subject to certain exceptions.”
The law also includes notification of parents and requires the use of drills deemed age and developmentally appropriate. Even the 2018 Final Report of the Federal Commission on School Safety, is now, despite its title, under revision by the Biden Administration.
Regardless of what’s been done so far, there’s still a long way to go. We can no longer ignore that implementing effectual and tenacious violence prevention measures beyond controversial drills is the imperative. For the time being, though, contentious preparation activities remain a grim reality in almost all the nations’ schools. Too bad that students’ vulnerability to violence does as well.
Engagement Resources
Click or tap on resource URL to visit links where available
The National Child Traumatic Stress Network has developed a checklist that is sympathetic to the emotional and psychological needs of students during active shooter drills: https://www.nctsn.org/resources/creating-school-active-shooter-intruder-drills
Organizations like The Sandy Hook Promise Fund offers resources on school safety as well as additional information on how schools can apply for the STOP grant: https://actionfund.sandyhookpromise.org/
For another example of research on the effects of active shooter drills, this one published by the Criminal Justice Policy Review, click the following: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0887403419900316
Four Ways to Improve the United Nations
Four Ways to Improve the United Nations
Foreign Policy Brief #174 | By: Inijah Quadri | February 22, 2023
Header photo taken from: epthinkthank.eu
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Photo taken from: United Nations Peacekeeping (.org)
Policy Summary
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The United Nations (UN) was established in 1945 with the aim of promoting international cooperation, peace, and security. Over the years the organization has evolved, taking on new roles and addressing new challenges. However, the UN is not without its shortcomings, and there have been calls for reform and improvement. In this article, we will explore some of the ways in which the UN could be improved.
Policy Analysis
1. Strengthening the Security Council
The Security Council is responsible for maintaining international peace and security. It is composed of five permanent members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and ten non-permanent members, elected for two-year terms.
The permanent members have veto power, which can be used to block any substantive resolution. This has led to criticism that the Security Council is undemocratic and unrepresentative.
To improve the Security Council there should be an increase in the number of permanent members to make it more representative of the world’s population, and to give more countries a say in global decision-making. There also a reform to the veto power, for example by limiting its use to issues that directly affect the national security of the veto-wielding state.
2. Reforming the General Assembly
The General Assembly is the main deliberative body of the UN, where all member states have equal representation. However, it is often criticized as being too large and unwieldy, and its decisions are not legally binding. The General Assembly currently has 193 member states, with a range in population size from Nauru (around 10,000) to China (over 1 billion).
To make the General Assembly more effective there have been proposals to reduce its size and give it more authority. This could involve reducing the number of member states represented in the General Assembly or establishing a smaller body made up of representatives from different regions, with each region having an equal number of representatives.
The selection of countries for each region and the number of countries in each region would likely be decided through negotiations among member states, possibly through a process similar to the current system of regional groups within the UN. Such a body could be more efficient and effective in making decisions than the current General Assembly.
<< Top 5 nations / permanent UN members by number of vetoes issued against resolutions.
Chart taken from: The UN
(click or tap to enlargen)
3. Strengthening the UN’s Peacekeeping Operations
Peacekeeping is one of the core functions of the UN, and the organization has deployed peacekeeping missions to many conflict zones around the world. However, some peacekeeping operations have faced criticism for being underfunded, understaffed, and lacking in resources. To improve peacekeeping, we hope to see more proposals to increase funding and resources for peacekeeping operations, as well as to improve the training and preparation of peacekeepers. The current budget for UN peacekeeping operations is approximately $6.5 billion, and there are currently 12 active peacekeeping missions around the world. The types of missions range from helping to maintain a ceasefire to supporting political processes and protecting civilians.
In addition, incidents of abuse committed by peacekeepers, such as sexual exploitation of civilians, continue to tarnish the reputation of UN peacekeeping missions. These incidents are often underreported, and even when reported, the perpetrators often go unpunished. More needs to be done to ensure that perpetrators are held accountable for their actions and that victims receive justice and support. Examples of incidents of abuse committed by peacekeepers include cases of sexual exploitation and abuse in the Central African Republic and Haiti.
– Working with the Taliban on Afghanistan’s Recovery
– Solidifying Yemen’s Truce
– Restoring Trust in UN Peacekeeping in the DR Congo
– Fighting Corruption and Impunity in Honduras
– Keeping Aid Flowing to Syria’s North West
– Getting Aid to Civilians in Russian-occupied Areas of Ukraine
– Drafting a “New Agenda for Peace”
– Channelling UN Funding to AU Operations
– Advancing the Climate Security Agenda in the Security Council
Photo taken from: International Crisis Group
4. Addressing Human Rights Abuses
The UN has a responsibility to promote and protect human rights around the world. However, it has been criticized for not doing enough to address human rights abuses in countries such as China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.
The Commission on Human Rights, which was the main UN body responsible for promoting and protecting human rights until it was replaced by the Human Rights Council in 2006, had several limitations that hindered its effectiveness. One of the most significant limitations was its membership, which was composed of member states elected by the UN General Assembly. The process of selecting members often resulted in countries with poor human rights records being elected to the Commission, which raised questions about the body’s credibility and independence. Examples of countries with poor human rights records that have sat on the Commission on Human Rights in the past include China, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, and Zimbabwe. These countries could use their position to deflect attention from their own human rights violations and block efforts to investigate and address human rights abuses in other countries.
Conclusion
The UN is an essential organization for promoting international cooperation and maintaining global peace and security. However, it is not without its flaws, and there is a growing consensus that the organization needs to be reformed and improved. The proposals outlined in this article are just a few examples of the many ways in which the UN could be strengthened.
Ultimately, the success of the UN will depend on the commitment and dedication of its member states, as well as the willingness of civil society and other stakeholders to engage with the organization. By working together, we can ensure that the UN remains a vital force for good in the world.
Engagement Resources
Click or tap on resource URL to visit links where available
Cambridge University Press: (https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/global-governance-and-the-emergence-of-global-institutions-for-the-21st-century/general-assembly-reforms-to-strengthen-its-effectiveness/2E69EECD7033DC46967707D3A385733F)
Human Rights Watch: (https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/03/22/un-rights-body-should-do-more-address-abuses-russia-yemen-saudi-arabia-egypt-china)
Institute of Studies on Conflicts and Humanitarian Action: (https://iecah.org/en/un-peacekeeping-stretched-to-its-limits/)
The National News: (https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2022/10/26/calls-for-un-security-council-reform-mount-as-global-insecurity-rises/)
The UN Refugee Agency: (https://www.unhcr.org/united-nation-and-international-institutions.html#:~:text=Most%20important%20among%20these%20are,Joint%20UN%20Programme%20on%20HIV%2F)
UNHCR The UN Refugee Agency: (https://www.unhcr.org/united-nation-and-international-institutions.html#:~:text=Most%20important%20among%20these%20are,Joint%20UN%20Programme%20on%20HIV%2F)
United Nations: (https://reform.un.org/)
United Nations Climate Change: (https://unfccc.int/)
United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner: (https://www.ohchr.org/en/about-us/high-commissioner)
United Nations Peacekeeping: (https://peacekeeping.un.org/en)
United Nations Security Council: (https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/voting-system#:~:text=The%20Right%20to%20Veto&text=It%20was%20agreed%20by%20the,at%20one%20time%20or%20another.)
Will Regulation Stifle Crypto, And Do We Care?
Will Regulation Stifle Crypto and Do We Care?
Technology Policy Brief #80 | By: Mindy Splatt | March 6, 2023
Header photo taken from: Getty Images
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Photo taken from: Kent Nishimura, Los Angeles Times / Getty Images
Policy Summary
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Fans of crypto have enthusiastically told me it enables lower income people to invest and earn money. They think it is more democratic and less corrupt than the stock market. And they eschew consumer protections, believeing that in order for it to accomplish these wonders it must not be hampered by a governmental bureaucracy.
These same predictable arguments were made by the industry at the Senate Banking Committee’s Valentine’s Day hearing “Crypto Crash: Why Financial System Safeguards are Needed for Digital Assets.” And while these currencies market themselves “smart” and modern, their insistence that regulation hampers innovation and that consumers don’t need protections are old, tired and unproven.
The hearing was a first step for the committee, chaired by Sherod Brown (D-Ohio) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.), towards its goal of bipartisan agreement on a regulatory scheme for crypto, a goal the crypto companies are vigorously opposed to. In response they have upped their lobbying game; the industry spent over $21 million on influence in the US last year.
Professor Linda Jeng, J.D., Chief Global Regulatory Officer at the Crypto Council for Innovation, touted the ground breaking inclusionary nature of crypto free from regulatory restrains. “Most adults who are unbanked or underbanked represent communities that have historically been the victim of discriminatory or exclusionary financial practices…. Digital assets, which have lower barriers to entry and do not suffer from a legacy of exclusionary practices and stigmas, offer people from historically-excluded or unbanked/underbanked communities new access to secure, low-cost, and effective financial services.”
But Lee Reiners, policy director at Duke University’s Financial Economics Center, called this inclusion “predatory.” “There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that crypto promotes financial inclusion,” he said. “In fact, overwhelming evidence suggests the exact opposite is happening. Most people who’ve invested in cryptocurrency have lost money. Of those people, a plurality are minorities and low-income Americans.”
Policy Analysis
Reiners likened the situation to the 2008 financial crisis, “where low-income and minority communities are being explicitly targeted with very, very risky products, and, unfortunately, they have lost — in many cases — everything.” He argued that better consumer protections are needed and favored regulation of crypto as a commodity through the Securities Exchange Commission.
Reiners was questioned by Senator Elizabeth Warren (D- Mass) on the use of crypto in money laundering schemes, ransomware attacks and other shady dealings. Reiners’s sarcastic reply was “Oh I’m sorry, crypto is the exclusive payment method of choice for ransomware hackers.’
Hilary J. Allen, professor of law at the American University Washington College of Law, agreed that crypto currency, as it currently exists, easily lends itself to fraudulent activities. “Sam Bankman-Fried may have engaged in good old-fashioned embezzlement,” she said, “but the embezzlement was able to reach such a scale and go undetected for so long because it was crypto – shrouded in opacity, complexity, and mystique.”
Senator Warren announced that she and Senator Marshall (R- Kan) would reintroduce their Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, which they say will “bring digital assets into greater compliance with anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing requirements.”
Chart taken from: Comply Advantage (.com)
(click or tap to enlargen)
Senator Brown released a statement supporting the application of basic consumer protections to crypto, including:
- Clear disclosures and transparency
- Prohibitions on conflicts of interest and self-dealing
- Protecting customer funds by separating them from company assets.
- Internal governance and risk management to require a platform that takes customer funds to act prudently.
- Oversight and supervision to prevent abuses.
No specific legislation or regulations were mentioned in Brown’s statement.
Despite that, industry’s response to the hearing was extremely defensive. Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association warned in POLITICO “We’re feeling a crypto carpet-bombing moment, where they seem to be trying to throw whatever they can within their authority — or potentially exceeding their authority — and we think …it’s bad for U.S. competitiveness,” suggesting the crypto bros will take their marbles elsewhere if anyone dares to make them play by the rules.
Some of the testimony and commentary at the hearing suggest not everyone would be sorry to see them go.
Engagement Resources
Click or tap on resource URL to visit links where available
Testimony at https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/crypto-crash-why-financial-system-safeguards-are-needed-for-digital-assets
Mr. Lee Reiners, Policy Director, Duke Financial Economics Center
Professor Linda Jeng
Visiting Scholar On Financial Technology, Adjunct Professor Of LawGeorgetown Institute of International Economic Law
Professor Yesha Yadav, Vanderbilt University Law School
Watch Video of Hearing:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?526045-1/hearing-regulating-cryptocurrency-markets
Will the Republicans Nominate Trump again? Examining Potential Indicators
Will the Republicans Nominate Trump again? Examining Potential Indicators
Elections & Politics Policy Brief #64 | By: Ian Milden | March 1, 2023
Header photo taken from: Eva Marie Uzcategui / Bloomberg
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Photo taken from: The Zinn Education Project
Policy Summary
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Donald Trump launched his third campaign for the Presidency in November. For several months, he had the field to himself. With Republican rivals launching campaigns to oppose him, this Brief will examine potential indicators that will come up over the next several months to help us determine Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination again.
Policy Analysis
Photo taken from: Taylor Glascock / The New York Times
(click or tap to enlargen)
A recent poll conducted by NPR, PBS, and Marist College found that a majority of Republicans would prefer to nominate someone other than Donald Trump for president in 2024. While this data doesn’t suggest that Republicans are enthusiastic about a third Trump run, it’s still possible that Republicans could nominate him.
While it is too early to say whom the Republicans will nominate, there are some indicators that can be examined over the coming months that can provide a sense of Trump’s chances.
Indicator #1: The Number of Alternatives to Trump
One of the main things we don’t know about the Republican primary is who will run against Trump. Former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley launched her campaign on February 15th. If the field is larger, financial resources, staff, and voter preferences will be split further allowing one candidate who has deep support from a specific part of the Republican base to be in a better position.
The data from the previously mentioned NPR poll indicates that Trump is still the preferred option among Republicans who identify as evangelical Christians and lack a college education. Republicans who live in urban and suburban areas, Republicans who have college degrees, and unaffiliated voters who lean towards the Republican party seem to prefer someone else.
Based on this data, it’s not unreasonable to hypothesize that Trump is starting with a deep amount of support from specific parts of the Republican base. That means that if Trump is going to lose the primary, Republicans who oppose him need to quickly coalesce around a broadly acceptable alternative, and candidates who struggle to demonstrate viability will need to quickly drop out. Republican primaries are not required to award delegates proportionally, so there is little incentive for candidates who keep losing to remain in the race.
Indicator #2: How well do alternatives stand up to scrutiny?
Running for President is different than running for Governor or Senator. Many presidential candidates who won statewide races in their home states struggled with the scrutiny that comes with a Presidential campaign. This can manifest differently for candidates. For some candidates, a major scandal could be uncovered by the national media, and that would severely damage their campaign, such as Herman Cain in 2012.
Other candidates struggle to answer questions or do well in basic campaign events, like Rick Perry in 2012. Other candidates can struggle by failing to get significant interest, taking controversial positions on important campaign issues, or failing to properly respond to negative media coverage or campaign crises. If candidates struggle to deal with scrutiny from the media, polling data will provide evidence of eroding support over the next several months.
Photo taken from: Venable LLP
(click or tap to enlargen)
Indicator #3: Campaign Finance Management
Candidates for federal offices are required to disclose how much money they have raised and spent every three months. Campaigns are also subject to some requirements on reporting what they spend their money on. Candidates who started running in the first three months of the year must publicly report their fundraising numbers to the FEC by mid-April.
There’s almost always someone who drops out of the Presidential race before the primaries start because they don’t have the financial resources to compete, or they mismanage the resources they have. Indicators of possible financial troubles are high spending in relation to the amount of money raised and a heavy reliance on donors who make the maximum contributions for the primary campaign. According to the FEC, the limit for individual contributions in the 2024 election is $3300.
While I expect Trump’s next quarterly FEC report to show that he has a strong grassroots donor base, examining his legal expenses in proportion to his other expenses and other campaign’s FEC reports may provide some insight. Trump has used his campaign funds to cover a lot of his more recent legal expenses, and if the costs of his legal defense grow, it could hamper his campaign’s ability to fund other campaign expenses.
A word about indictments
Trump is facing three separate criminal investigations. These separate investigations are run by the federal government, the New York state government, and the Fulton County, Georgia District Attorney’s office. Any or all of these investigations could lead to indictments in the coming year. While it is hard to predict how an indictment would affect the thoughts and decisions of Republican primary voters, it would not force Trump to drop out of the race. It may impact his fundraising, and it would likely force his campaign to spend more than they already are on lawyers.
A conviction and jail sentence also would not stop Trump from running. Socialist Eugene V. Debs ran for President in 1920 from federal prison, though that hurt his ability to compete. If Trump is indicted, I will wait for polling and campaign finance data to help explain the impact of an indictment on his Presidential campaign further.
State Bill To Test Limits of Election Fraud Claims In California
State Bill To Test Limits of Election Fraud Claims In California
Civil Rights Policy Brief #201 | By: Rodney A. Maggay | February 28, 2023
Header photo taken from: Cindy Yamanaka, The Press-Enterprise / SCNG
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Photo taken from: Katy Grimes / California Globe
Policy Summary
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Last month in California Assemblymember Bill Essayli, a Republican from Riverside County, introduced AB 13 that seeks to make changes to existing California state election law. There are five specific changes contained in AB 13. The bill would first eliminate the requirement of automatically mailing a ballot to every single registered voter in the state.
The bill would also restrict who can return a completed ballot if the voter is unable to physically do so to only family members and persons who are living in the same household as the voter. Furthermore, AB 13 would eliminate voting centers and also shorten the time period for county registrars to receive a mail – ballot from seven days down to three days in order to be counted. Finally, the bill would make Election Day a state holiday. LEARN MORE
Policy Analysis
While AB 13 is notable for introducing changes that could affect how elections are conducted in California there are other reasons separate from the bill that make the bill noteworthy. The first reason is the bill was introduced by a Republican member of the California state legislature. And, the bill is being viewed as a hint as to how Republicans might try to narrow the issue of voting fraud and election integrity to a smaller set of issues.
Currently, California Democrats have overwhelming majorities in both the state senate and the state assembly. They control 62 of 80 seats in the Assembly and 32 of 40 seats in the State Senate. The current Governor Gavin Newsom is also a Democrat. This supermajority in both houses of the state legislature and control of the Governor’s mansion make it challenging for Republicans to pursue policies that they favor in the state.
A Republican politician who sponsors an election bill in California that hints at debunked claims of election fraud has to know that the bill’s chances in the state are incredibly slim. California Democrats would never support a bill that implies that state elections are rigged or not secure. Assemblymember Essayli’s bill could be seen as a waste of time in a state dominated by Democrats.
When a number of candidates supported by President Trump lost key federal and state races in the 2022 election, the losses were seen as a rebuke of President Trump’s Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him and that U.S. elections are somehow rigged. However, some candidates clung hard to the Big Lie, likely as a way to explain their own election loss.
What Assemblymember Essalyi’s introduction of AB 13 is being seen as is a way to continue the theme of broken elections but narrowing the issue to make it more palatable to persons who might not believe that elections are rigged and unsecure. Instead of throwing every conceivable conspiracy theory out there as to why a certain election is not legitimate, Republican Essayli’s bill focuses on a limited number of issues.
Photo taken from: Politifact California, Twitter
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AB 13 first tries to eliminate California’s requirement of mailing a ballot to every registered voter. This requirement was only recently implemented in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. And the bill would also change who can return a completed ballot on behalf of another person and then shortens the time for ballots to be collected from the county registrar – down to three days from seven.
While these proposals may seem benign on the surface, the fact that a Republican politician is trying to introduce these election reforms in a Democratic controlled state signals that Republicans may be trying to move on from loud unfounded claims of voter fraud with no evidence to more narrow and focused election claims that might garner support.
Luckily, Democrats in the California Assembly and other groups were quick to push back. Some called the bill another excuse for GOP candidates to fix a non – existent problem simply because an election did not go their way. And others pushed back that problems thought to exist in ballot harvesting, having ballots mailed to everyone and long collection periods that delay the results of an election are problems that are being exaggerated to an extreme.
But the danger of election deniers and the false information that they peddle is still out there and a threat. Republican politicians can still introduce bills that sound ordinary and pose no threat on the surface. Or they can include provisions that have wide appeal like making Election Day a state holiday to make a bill sound good.
What needs to be done to counter these threats is to closely scrutinize these voting bills and make sure they do not go further than what is intended and that they do not roll back advancements made in California. With Assemblymember Essayli’s AB 13, Democrats must ensure that the proposals are rational, justified and necessary and not merely an echo of Trump’s lies about the 2020 election. LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE
Engagement Resources
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American Progress – group’s report on how election deniers fared in the 2022 elections.
NBC News – report on the dangers election deniers pose to future elections.
Is The Premier League Getting Out of Control?
Is The Premier League Getting Out of Control?
Foreign Policy Brief #173 | By: Reilly Fitzgerald | February 27, 2023
Header photo taken from: Craig Brough / Reuters
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Photo taken from: Deloitte Football Money League, Bloomberg Opinion
Policy Summary
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The Premier League, England’s top division of professional football, is known for elite levels of competition (soccer); huge budgets for teams; massive player personalities, and more. But has the league gotten out of control? Over the past several years, we have seen the amount of money being spent on individual player transfers skyrocket, and the race to own teams in the Premier League has been more than competitive. The most recent and controversial acquisitions being via Middle Eastern money spent to purchase teams like Manchester City, Newcastle United – and currently there is a Qatari bid to own Manchester United, one of the most influential teams in the world.
Global football has been under the influence of wealthy actors for a long time. However, the introduction of new Middle Eastern wealth to the sport has increased the amount of governmental influences on the “beautiful game”. In recent weeks the Manchester City Football Club has been heavily scrutinized following an investigation into their role in breaking over 100 financial fair play rules over a nine-year period.
Policy Analysis
The UK government has been debating the idea of having more oversight in regards to the finances of Premier League clubs. Over the past few years, the world has seen unprecedented amounts of money spent on individual player transfers, team acquisitions by actors within foreign governments like the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF), talks of teams entering into new leagues across Europe at the exclusion of other teams, and so much more.
Reports coming out of many media outlets, and also the Premier League itself, have spelled out the arguments for increasing the oversight of the Premier League, and perhaps the entirety of English football by the UK government. The concerns surrounding the league are mostly financial.
As stated earlier, Manchester City FC has been investigated by the Premier League for violating Financial Fair Play rules over 100 times. Manchester City is owned by a Middle Eastern financial group, called the City Football Group; led by Sheikh Mansour, the club’s owner. Manchester City, for those non-football fans, is one of the most dominant and successful teams in the world – and one of the highest paying clubs in the world.
The transfer of Jack Grealish in 2021 from London’s Aston Villa, at the time was the most expensive transfer in Manchester City history, at a record £100m. As expensive as Jack Grealish’s transfer was, it has since been eclipsed by the spending of Chelsea FC, which from last summer until the most recent transfer window closing spent over £500m on new signings and transfers. Chelsea currently sits in 10th place out of 20 teams.
Many teams in English football cannot, simply, afford to compete with the wages that teams such as Manchester City. High wages for players has created a league that really only has a select number of teams competing for the title. Many face relegation to lower divisions in English football or financial ruin.
Photo taken from: Chloe Knott – Danehouse, Getty Images Sport, Getty Images
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Another concern is the idea of the European “Super League”, which would be an exclusive league just for some of the richest teams in Europe to play against each other. A similar contest already exists with the UEFA Champions League; however, teams have to qualify for this yearly tournament based on their success in their domestic leagues. For example, the top four teams in England will compete in the Champions League against other leading European teams.
The idea of the Super League is to create a set list of teams that would play against each other all season long, without qualifications, at the exclusion of other teams. Most of the teams would be in the league on a permanent basis and a select handful of spots in the league would be via a qualification process.
This issue is so contentious that some leagues have issued statements suggesting that teams that participate in the Super League be banned from domestic competitions like the Premier League or La Liga (Spain’s first division of football), or even that players could be banned from international competitions like the World Cup.
According to CNBC, the UK government would like to start monitoring the people that bid to take ownership of clubs within their country. Some have suggested that whoever takes over regulating the Premier League may want to take a closer examination of whether a country is buying a club or an individual; and examine the human rights records of the entities involved in the purchase of a club.
Currently, Manchester United Football Club is looking at a change in ownership from the Glazer family, who also own the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The current bids are from Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the owner of INEOS, and from Sheikh Jassim bin Hammad Al Thani, who is with the Qatari bank QIB. The listing price of Manchester United starts around £4 billion.
All of these reasons, and more, are reasons why the UK government is concerned about their Premier League. The financial risks involved, for many teams, are severe and concerning. Spending has gone out of control and clubs, like Manchester City, are starting to not follow Financial Fair Play rules.
Engagement Resources
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CNBC Article – https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/23/englands-prized-soccer-league-to-face-regulation-and-tough-new-ownership-rules.html
Everyday Life in Ukraine in the Midst of a War
Everyday Life in Ukraine in the Midst of a War
Foreign Policy Brief #172 | By: Yelena Korshunov | February 28, 2023
Header photo taken from: Photo from ru.euronews.com – Odessa without electricity.
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Photo taken from an Odessa resident.
Policy Summary
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February 24th 2022 is now the day in world history when Russia started a bloody violent war against Ukraine. For another year Ukrainians have been suffering from Russian missiles, cruelty, and terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure. People are used now to constant power outages. They have learned to adapt to it. Refrigerators are disconnected from outlets and turned to closets with cans, pastas, grains, and dried bread. Balconies are turned into refrigerators.
Policy Analysis
For long months Ukrainians live with electricity turned on only several hours a day if lucky, while many of them stay without power for 2-4 days in a row, especially in the Odessa region in South Ukraine. This condition is especially cruel in winter, when it is freezing outside and very cold in houses and apartments while heating, water supply, and often phones and Internet are off. Many buildings’ residents climb to the top floors every day since elevators don’t work. Older people are forced to stay at home.
Natalia is an Odessa resident. She is 82. She lives in an apartment on the 12th floor. “I can’t take the stairs to go outside. My neighbor, God bless her, buys bread and milk for me,” she says. Natalia has a supply of water in a big cooking pot. The neighbor also carries water bottles from the pump stations for her. “But we are lucky to have gas! Many new buildings are supplied with electrical ovens, so residents can’t even cook or heat water when electricity is off. In these conditions, there is no longer healthy food for many of them. Some are lucky to have a tourist gas burner to cook on”.
Photo taken from an Odessa resident.
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Ukrainians can buy gas devices and cylinders online and in stores, but there is a high risk of an explosion, which, unfortunately, has become more frequent due to the careless or unconfident operation of these devices. Prices for light supplies jumped up because of the high demand. However, candles, flashlights, lanterns working on batteries, and power banks are a temporary solution when power is off for a long period.
Photo taken from: youtube.com
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Photo taken from: rus.delfi.ee
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As for the water supply, the only solution for people is to store water in all available containers. Otherwise you will have to look for pump stations, stand in a long line and carry precious water up the stairs home. Probably, you will have to make more than one such trip to provide enough water for the needs of the family.
Tamara works remotely and that became a big challenge with regular blackouts. Her two children attended school before the war, but now they switched to remote learning because of the constant air raid alarms. Students randomly have on-line lessons when electricity is on. The school has a power generator, so teachers are able to provide remote classes, but few students have power generators at home so few students attend. “I always have a desk lamp on and its light wakes me up when we get electricity at night,” Tamara says, “so I am able to do my remote work. My kids ask me to also wake them up to turn on computers and do their homework. Well, at least I’m lucky to still have my job while a lot of people around have lost it because of war.”
Even in this hard condition students do not stop learning. During daylight, at nights, wearing warm clothes, children continue their education. Child care centers for younger kids do their best to be open for in-person attendance. They use generators and lanterns, and kids have their routine activities wearing an extra pair of pants and a warm sweater. When the air alarm sounds they interrupt learning and play to go down to a safe place if they have one. In fact, many facilities don’t have a secure shelter.
“We have one more big problem because of constant blackouts,” tells Tamara, “and that is financial. Many people are used to not paying by cash any more. We use credit cards and apps on our phones. So power outages have become an obstacle for the simplest pay in a local store. Now you should always have cash in your pocket, but many ATMs are out of cash, so withdrawing bills is also a challenge”.
There is another year when Ukrainians have been fighting for their freedom, their land and lives. Ukrainian children have been waiting for the day when they won’t hear the scary sound of an air raid alert anymore. They dream about the day when they wake up in the morning and go to school, meet their friends, and play sports not interrupted by a blood-freezing howling alarm. They can’t wait for the day when their dads and brothers come back home alive. They are waiting for victory, for light, for peace.
The Ukraine War: One Year on
The Ukraine War: One Year On
Foreign Policy Brief #171 | By: Abran C | February 25, 2023
Header photo taken from: Financial Times
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Photo taken from: Tyler Hicks / The New York Times
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We have arrived at the one year mark of the invasion of Ukraine, a war that has caused widespread destruction, displacement, and death as Ukraine still continues to fight back against Russia’s invading army with no end in sight. One year ago Russian forces at the command of Vladimir Putin launched the largest war on the European continent since World War II.
Energy costs, food prices, and economies worldwide have been negatively impacted. Both Ukraine and Russia have lost more than 100,000 lives in the past year, and millions of innocent people daily continue to suffer the consequences of the war. As the war continues to rage it is worth looking at where we’ve been, what’s been the cost of the war, and where we’re headed.
What’s Happened So Far: Key Moments in the War
Russia had already been waging war on the Crimean peninsula since March 2014, which is technically the true beginning of its war in Ukraine. On February 24, 2022 Russian forces invaded Ukraine with the intention of taking over the country completely and capturing its capital.
Russia has made claims that the invasion of Ukraine was and continues to be carried out in order to “denazify” Ukraine and prevent it from joining NATO and moving closer into the sphere of the West. The invading forces entered through land, air, and sea, Russian troops quickly reached Kyiv’s outskirts, but their attempts to capture the capital and other cities met stiff resistance whiuch is still in effect.
Russia later in March took control of the southern city of Kherson and occupied a large part of the neighboring Zaporizhzhia region, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility, which remains at risk of causing catastrophic disaster if the powerplant is not kept secure from fighting.
In April, after two months the Russian pullback from Kyiv revealed hundreds of bodies of civilians in mass graves or left in the streets of the town of Bucha, many of them bearing signs of torture.
Photo taken from: Sergey Dolzhenko / Shutterstock
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Later in May, after weeks of intense battle the city of Mariupol’s fell to the Russians and cut Ukraine off from the Azov coast and secured a land corridor for Russia from its border to Crimea. In July Russia and Ukraine, with mediation by Turkey and the UN, agreed to a deal to release tons of grain stuck in Ukrainian Black Sea ports, ending a standoff that threatened global food security.
In September Putin ordered the mobilization of 300,000 reservists, a widely unpopular move that prompted hundreds of thousands of Russian men to flee the country to avoid recruitment. During the same time, Russia staged “referendums” in Ukraine’s Eastern Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions on whether to become part of Russia. The votes were widely dismissed as a sham by Ukraine and the West.
In October as winter began to set in, Russia launched a series of missile strikes on Ukraine’s power plants and other key infrastructure. In November Russia announced a pullback from the regional capital city of Kherson after a fierce Ukrainian counteroffensive, in a humiliating retreat for the Kremlin.
In January, Russia along with help from the private mercenary Wagner Group declared the capture of the salt-mining town of Soledar, hoping to use it as a springboard to capture the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut. Now at the one year mark in February, Ukrainian troops are still fighting to retake the Eastern part of their country. Russia struggles to make gains but remains defiant in spite of condemnation and huge losses, and Western powers are gearing up to send more weapons to Ukraine.
Cost of War
Infoographic taken from: OSM, UNHCR
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) verified a total of 8,006 civilian deaths during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as of February, 2023. Of them, 487 are children, and a further 13,287 people are reported to have been injured. All of these numbers are likely under-estimates. Additionally it is estimated that about 100,000 soldiers have been killed on both sides of the conflict, though exact numbers are difficult to verify.
Over the course of the war up to 8 million Ukrainians have fled and are displaced in neighboring countries around Europe, making it the largest refugee crisis in Europe since the Second World War and the largest refugee crisis of the 21st century. There have also been disturbing reports such as that by Human Rights Watch which documented that some Ukrainian civilians were being forcibly transferred to Russia. The US Department of State has estimated that at least 900,000 Ukrainian citizens have been forcibly relocated into Russia.
EU block countries have allowed entry and asylum to all Ukrainian refugees, and invoked a Temporary Protection Directive that grants Ukrainians the right to stay, work, and study in any European Union member state for a period of one year.
It is estimated that Russia has spent some $82 billion dollars since the start of its war in Ukraine. Russia’s budget revenue last year amounted to $340 billion, meaning that it has spent roughly a quarter of its total 2021 earnings on a war that has made little gains and isolated Russia from the rest of Europe. Ukraine’s economy shrank by more than 30% in 2022, which is its largest decline since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
Where Are We Headed
Photo taken from: Dmitry Astakhov / Sputnik / AFP via Getty Images
Unfortunately as of the time of writing there is no indication of a possibility of peace talks, Ukraine is committed to reclaiming its lost territory and Russia is doing all it can to increase its territorial gains in order to save face for the disaster the war has been. Additionally tensions between Russia and the West are higher than any other time in the 21st century.
In his recent State of the Nation speech Vladmimir Putin announced Russia would halt its participation in the New Start treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the US. The New Start treaty provides for limits on the deployed strategic nuclear arsenals of the world’s two largest nuclear powers, capping strategic nuclear assets at 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed missiles. The treaty also allows joint monitoring of each country’s deployed nuclear arsenals which hold 90% of the world nuclear stock, the suspension and possible withdrawal from this treaty is very troubling for the international community as a whole.
Putin also described the war in Ukraine as having been started by the US and Western powers saying, “The responsibility is on the West and the Ukrainian elite and government, which does not serve the national interest, but rather serves the interest of third countries which use Ukraine as a military base to fight Russia. The only certainty at the moment is that the war will continue on into 2023 and possibly beyond.
Montana Debates Letting Doctors Refuse Care to LGBTQ Citizens
Montana Debates Letting Doctors Refuse Care to LGBTQ Citizens
Health and Gender Policy Brief #157 | By: Caroline Howard | February 23, 2023
Header photo taken from: ktvq.com
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Photo taken from: Rachel Leathe / Bozeman Daily Chronicle
Policy Summary
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The Montana House of Representatives recently debated and then passed a bill which is being referred to as a medical right of conscience law. This act, as the Montana Free Press put it, would allow “medical institutions, providers and other health care employees to deny services based on their ‘ethical, moral, or religious beliefs or principles’”.
Among the concerns that have been raised if such a bill was passed and then implemented, was the possibility that a doctor, first responder, or any other medical professional or even insurance company could deny care for people that are a part of the LGBTQ community because it violates the religious conscience of someone working in that field. A transgender man named Ezekial Cork said in a testimony against the bill that, “If I’m in an accident or medical emergency, with a law like this in place, a medical care provider could raise the right of conscience card, disregard their Hippocratic oath, and refuse to treat me”.
The bill currently reads, “A health care institution or health care payer may not be required to participate in or pay for a health care service that violates the health care institution’s or health care payer’s conscience, including by permitting the use of its facilities”. Many advocates against this legislation say that the wording is vague enough that this will mean, if implemented, that LGBTQ citizens can also be denied care, even if they are currently dying in front of a medical professional, and need immediate care.
Policy Analysis
A bill like this brings up so many issues, including why someone becomes a doctor in the first place if they aren’t going to actually live by the hippocratic oath and serve anyone who needs help.
Saying that any medical professional can just deny care because it goes against their conscience should be evidence enough that the person is unqualified to be in that profession. If this bill is passed and implemented, which is a long shot considering the varied potential legal challenges that await it if it is signed into law, LGBTQ Montanans will have less access to the life-saving medical care they need, including mental health services.
Photo taken from: Mercer (.com)
The reason there may be legal challenges is because of the Bostock v. Clayton County Georgia supreme court case that was decided in 2020. This case decided that sexual orientation and gender identity were inherently covered under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
In the majority opinion, authored by Neil Gorsuch, it states clearly that, “Because discrimination on the basis of homosexuality or transgender status requires an employer to intentionally treat individual employees differently because of their sex, an employer who intentionally penalizes an employee for being homosexual or transgender also violates Title VII”.
What justice Gorsuch is saying is that discrimination of a person based on their gender identity or sexual orientation is inherently based on their biological sex. It makes sense, because someone who is seen as male wouldn’t be discriminated against if they were attracted to someone of the opposite sex. It inherently has to do with the biological sex of the person involved.
Of course, legal interpretations are bound to change over time, as the Dobbs case did with Roe v. Wade; and maybe this bill intends to attempt to upend that precedent. With the new makeup of the court, it is very likely that a decision overturning Bostock v. Clayton County could take place, but in the meantime, a bill like this will very likely not take effect for a while as it is fought in the courts.