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What Do the Argentinian and Dutch Elections Mean for the United States?
Brief #108 – Foreign Policy Brief
by : Arvind Salem
It’s not often that political observers look to international elections to forecast outcomes in the U.S. presidential elections, yet wins from populist candidates Javier Milei in Argentina and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands are giving political observers on the left in the United States cause for alarm.
Sweating on the Treadmill of COP28: Will COP29 Deliver on Crucial Emissions Cuts?
Brief #163 – Environment Policy Brief
by : Todd J. Broadman
The United Nations sponsored COP was kicked-off in 1995 with its stated goal to “stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses at levels that would prevent ‘dangerous’ human interference with the climate system.” Since then, concentrations of CO2 have gone up each year.
The Week That Was: Global News in Review
Brief #107 – Foreign Policy Brief
by : Ibrahim Castro
A week-in-review of Global News, outside of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas Conflict, including natural disasters in China, migration reform by the EU, and more.
Is Biden’s New Executive Order on AI Enough?
Brief #104 – Technology Policy Brief
by : Christopher Quinn
On October 30, 2023, President Joe Biden issued an Executive Order to ensure that the United States leads the way in seizing the promise and managing the risks of Artificial Intelligence (AI).
SUGGESTIONS FOR A BIDEN ADMINISTRATION MIDEAST PEACE PLAN
OP ED
U.S. Resist News
The world needs voices of reason, compromise, and settlement to extricate us out of the quagmire of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The main combatants—Israelis and Hamas— are too invested to sort things out on their own. They need help.
Mark Meadows
Brief #115 – Elections & Politics Policy Brief
by Abigail Hunt
Mark Meadows looks hungover in his mugshot… indicted in October 2023 on charges for attempting to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia, Meadows has good reason to drink.
The Medium is the Manipulation, Part 3: How Politicians Use Social Media to Spin Falsehoods
Brief #103 – Technology Policy Brief
by : Steve Piazza
It isn’t difficult to see why political campaigns are drawn to social media platforms. The rapid messaging allows for candidates to stay in sync with opponents and potential voters. The 200% return on investment doesn’t hurt either.
Trump’s Support Among Black Voters
Brief #114 – Elections & Politics Policy Brief
by Abigail Hunt
Recent poll results published in the New York Times claim Trump’s support among Black voters has increased to more than 20 percent.
Unveiling the Path to Peace: Insights from Post-Conflict Palestine
Brief #106 – Foreign Policy Brief
by Aziza Taslaq
The widespread destruction and immense losses have left a lasting impact.
The Russian-Ukraine War: Where are We Now?
The Russian-Ukraine War: Where are We Now?
Foreign Policy Brief #96 | By: Ibrahim Castro | October 30, 2023
Photo taken from: cnbc.com
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The last few weeks have seen two new wars spring up in our increasingly volatile international arena. First in late September the war for Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia and more recently the war between Israel and Hamas which has captured global attention and shifted away from the war in Ukraine. Yet even though attention has waned as it nears the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion, the war remains very much deadly as it was just before additional conflicts were added to our increasingly unstable international community.
What’s happening on the battlefield right now?
Last week Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces claimed that a nighttime surprise attack on targets in eastern and southern Ukraine destroyed nine Russian helicopters, other military equipment, and killed multiple Russian soldiers at two airfields in Russian-occupied areas. The weapons used were long-range ballistic missiles delivered quietly by the United States after requests from Ukraine saying it urgently needed them to make any impactful territorial gains against the Russian army. The arrival of these weapons on the warfront gives Ukraine the ability to strike Russian targets that are farther away and inflict more damage, but also further deepens the US’ involvement in the war and runs the risk of wider conflict if the weapons are used to strike inside of Russia’s borders.
The Ukrainian military has ramped up strikes on Russian forces in the Black Sea and Crimea, which was seized and annexed by Moscow in 2014, as Ukrainian forces press on with their nearly five month-old counteroffensive. Ukrainian attacks in Crimea have included strikes on a Russian air base, a Black Sea Fleet command post in Sevastopol, and the bridge linking Crimea to Russia. The attacks have highlighted Kiev’s growing capabilities, which also include naval drones, as Moscow continues bombarding Ukraine from afar with long-range missiles and assault drones.
Throughout the war Russia has frequently conducted missile strikes on civilian infrastructure, the latest strike hit a postal terminal in the Kharkiv region on October 22, 2023 killing six people and injuring 16, officials have said. The strike came from Russian forces in the Belgorod region, near the Ukrainian border. Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, was retaken from Russian occupation by Ukrainian troops last year, but has remained the target of frequent aerial assaults.
As a result of the fighting he UK’s Ministry of Defence reports that Russia has suffered 150,000-190,000 permanent casualties (killed or permanently wounded) since the war began. According to US stats Ukrainian deaths are close to 70,000, with 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.
Russia and Ukraines economy
The sanctions imposed by the US and its EU partners on Russia’s financial system were placed in an effort to reduce Russia’s ability to finance the war. In all, about 70% of assets of the Russian banking system are currently under sanctions. It is estimated that in 2022, Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) dropped by 2.1% much less than the predicted 10-15% contraction. This is mostly due to Russia seeking out new non-Western trade partners and increasing trade with those it already has. Still its GDP is forecast to decline by 2.5% in the worst-case scenario (OECD). Since the invasion in February 2022, Ukraine GDP dropped by almost 30 percent in what the World Bank characterized as a “staggering contraction”. Ukraine’s 10 most economically important regions are in the eastern and southern parts of the country where the heaviest fighting has taken place. Poverty in Ukraine soared from 5.5% of the population to 24.2% in 2022. Though Ukraine’s allies have already pledged to help it recover whenever the war finally comes to an end. Ukraine’s large size and strategic location mean that recovery and future growth outcomes will profoundly shape the geopolitical landscape of Europe in the future.
The wars’ global impact
One of Russian President Vladimir Putin stated hopes for the invasion was the opportunity to split the West and NATO. Instead, the military alliance strengthened and increased its membership. Two new members in Finland and Sweden, which reversed decades of nonalignment and asked to join NATO as protection against possible future Russian invasion or interference.
The conflict has also hit food security around the world. Before the war, Ukraine and Russia together were the world’s largest exporter of wheat. They were responsible for over 36% of global wheat exports, and also exported more than half of the world’s sunflower oil. The Food Security Information Network highlights the war as a key force, alongside the pandemic, other conflicts and extreme weather, behind a staggering rise in the number of people who are food-insecure. Nearly 258 million people in 58 countries/territories were in a food crisis or moderate-to-severe acute food insecurity in 2022, up from 193 million in 53 countries/territories in 2021. This is the highest figure on record since the organization began reporting these data in 2017.
At least 5.9 million Ukrainians who have been forced to flee homes and country for new lives in communities across Europe and beyond. To date, there are almost 1 million Ukrainian refugees in Poland while other nearby countries Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Moldova have each given safety to tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees.
How will the war end?
Unfortunately it does not appear that the war will end anytime soon or with any clear direction. Both Russia and Ukraine’s armies remain locked in heavy fighting. Though we can still speculate what outcomes are possible based on what we have detailed thus far. With a Ukrainian victory, Kyiv has clearly defined what it would look like, it means a restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within the pre-2014 borders and no Russia in Crimea, future security guarantees, criminal consequences for Russian war crimes and reparations for the material damage caused. Ukrainian membership in NATO and the European Union should also be on the agenda.
At first, Moscow’s aim in invading Ukraine was to take over the whole of the country and remove its legitimate, democratically elected government. After multiple fiascos and setbacks in the spring of 2022, the goal became simply taking control of as much of Ukraine as possible. It is unlikely either side will give in to the other, Russia will continue fighting because of the need to save face on the international stage. Ukraine will not want to seem to be giving up or giving in. The two sides have been and are likely to remain at a stalemate as neither side can fully beat back the other. So in order to avoid a prolonged war, as with all conflicts, the war must be brought to an end through diplomacy not continued aggression.
Congressional Support Lapses in the Fight Against Fentanyl
Congressional Support Lapses in the Fight Against Fentanyl
Health and Gender Policy Brief #166 | By: Geoffrey Small | October 30, 2023
Photo taken from: sbsun.com
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Policy Summary:
In February, the CDC released data indicating that drug overdose deaths hit a record high in 2022. Eight states reported increased death rates from nine percent to twenty one percent last year. The access to social supports and healthcare has steadily increased since the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, and many believed that the data in 2022 would reflect a decrease in overdose deaths. However, one major driver of the reported increase undermined these expectations. The introduction of fentanyl in the United Sates is fueling the new wave of drug overdoses. This analysis will highlight the efforts that the federal government is undertaking to fight the burgeoning fentanyl crisis.
Policy Analysis:
The CDC reported that more than two thirds, or 68 percent, of overdose deaths were linked primarily to fentanyl in 2022. Many scholars believe this sharp rise to be the fourth wave in the historic drug overdose crisis. It started in the 90s to early 2000s with prescription opioids, a second wave involved increase heroin overdoses, and a third wave involved the introduction of fentanyl.
The FDA has recently taken measures to address the sharp increase in drug overdose deaths. In March 2023, the agency approved the first over-the-counter Naloxone nasal spray, stating the drug “is a lifesaving emergency treatment that reverses opioid overdose. It is a medicine with no abuse potential, and it is not a controlled substance.” These institutional beliefs mark a major change in the federal government’s perspective on opioid reversal drugs. During the second and third waves of overdose deaths, much of the public experienced a lack of access to this drug, due to state and federal regulations. For years, Naloxone was considered by federal and state governments as a drug that would enable more substance abuse. Most states only allowed police officers and paramedics to legally carry the nasal spray, which can immediately reverse a life-threatening overdose.
Congressional action has also had a complicated history with combating this overdose crisis. In 2018, the SUPPORT act was passed authorizing $20 billion for substance abuse prevention, treatment, and recovery. A reauthorization of the bill was introduced in July of this year. Unfortunately, Congress has not had the urgency to pass the new proposed law, allowing the 2018 SUPPORT act to eventually lapse on September 30th. As a result, funding is currently no longer available to families who desperately need help fighting the fourth wave of this devastating drug overdose crisis.
Without Congressional support, the fourth wave in the drug overdose crisis has many experts speculating that deaths will continue to reach record highs in the United States. The FDA’s recent approval of over-the-counter Naloxone marks a positive change in public access to treatment options. The stigma of the overdose-reversal nasal spray as an enabler for substance abuse, which prevented the public access to the vital lifesaving drug, is no longer an obstacle. Harm Reduction Therapeutics donated 200,000 doses of the nasal spray to the Remedy Alliance, a non-profit Naloxone advocacy organization, after FDA approval. This may help blunt the continued rise in deaths related to a burgeoning fentanyl crisis. However, Congress is currently preventing vital funding for prevention and recovery by allowing the SUPPORT act to lapse without the necessary reauthorization. Please contact your congressional representatives to highlight the need for SUPPORT act reauthorization. Also, consider donating to the Remedy Alliance to ensure they connect with harm reduction programs to provide free Naloxone for people in need.
Links to Donate:
- Remedy Alliance, https://givebutter.com/ScOTky
Gig Economy Insights: Benefits, Drawbacks, and the Future of Freelancing
Gig Economy Insights: Benefits, Drawbacks, and the Future of Freelancing
Economic Policy Brief #56 | By: Inijah Quadri | October 26, 2023
Photo taken from: freelancer.com/
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Policy Summary:
In the age of digital transformation, the gig economy has emerged as a significant paradigm shift. Platforms like Uber, Airbnb, Upwork, and Fiverr have become the bridges connecting freelancers with opportunities, altering the traditional employment landscape. While the gig economy’s unique framework promotes flexibility and autonomy, it also ushers in concerns related to worker stability, rights, and unpredictable earnings
Policy Analysis:
The gig economy’s charm lies in its inherent flexibility. Workers can decide their schedules, work environments, and project preferences, leading to improved job satisfaction and a harmonious work-life equilibrium. This autonomy allows individuals to design their career paths, potentially leading to diversified income sources and multiple engagements.
On the corporate front, the gig economy introduces a flexible talent acquisition model. Companies can access a global pool of freelancers, ensuring they get the right fit for specific tasks without the strings of permanent employment. This strategy often results in cost savings and enhanced operational efficiencies.
Yet, the gig ecosystem is not devoid of challenges. For one, the perks of traditional employment—health benefits, retirement plans, and paid holidays—remain out of reach for many freelancers. The transition of these responsibilities from companies to individual workers has induced significant strains, both financially and operationally.
Various governments worldwide have initiated policies to regulate the gig economy. For instance, at the federal level, there have been discussions on classifying gig workers as independent contractors or employees, impacting their entitlement to benefits and protections. At the state level, states such as California have tried to address this with laws like Assembly Bill 5 (AB5) aimed at providing gig workers with employee rights. The outcomes and status of such efforts remain contested, with some supporting and others opposing these regulations.
Irrespective, at present, many freelancers find themselves navigating the murky waters of inconsistent payments, vague contract terms, or even outright non-payment scenarios. This unpredictability can be taxing, both mentally and financially. The solitary nature of freelance work can also lead to feelings of disconnect, missing out on team dynamics, and difficulties in demarcating work and personal boundaries.
A significant point of contention remains the ambiguous relationship between gig platforms and freelancers. As these platforms primarily function as facilitators, the lines defining accountability and responsibilities often blur. This vagueness has been the root cause of numerous legal disputes across the globe. Many freelancers push for more defined rights, whereas platforms are wary of categorizing them under conventional employment umbrellas.
Examples of gig workers’ efforts to advocate for their rights are abundant. For instance, Starbucks baristas have formed unions to push for better work conditions and benefits. Uber drivers, especially in the UK, have taken legal actions against the company, arguing for the status of employees rather than independent contractors. Such efforts have sometimes resulted in policy changes and heightened awareness, though the success rates and outcomes vary from case to case.
Looking Ahead
Given the current momentum, the gig economy’s expansion appears to be a given. The increasing global inclination towards remote and flexible work, propelled further by technological breakthroughs, will further attract individuals to the freelancing world.
For a harmonious coexistence, however, a balanced approach is imperative. Regulatory bodies need to devise innovative policies that safeguard freelancers’ rights without hampering the gig economy’s core essence of flexibility. This could potentially mean conceptualizing a unique employment category tailored for gig workers. Or, just as is being proposed in Japan, this could mean refining existing laws to offer freelance workers better protections.
Platforms also need to introspect and possibly adapt their models to better cater to freelancer needs. This could entail providing direct benefits, imparting training resources, or refining their payment infrastructures for more clarity and punctuality.
Central to all these discussions and reforms should be the freelancers themselves. As the nucleus of the gig economy, it’s their experiences, hurdles, and visions that should shape the future trajectory of this dynamic work landscape. They should be proactive in voicing their concerns and needs. As with most causes, it is the voice of the freelancer that should resonate loudest, as it may just hold the key to a sustainable future.
Engagement Resources:
- Freelance Informer (https://freelanceinformer.com/): A news site dedicated to the freelance world, providing insights, trends, and advice for gig workers.
- Freelancers Union (https://www.freelancersunion.org/): An organization advocating for the rights of freelance workers, offering resources, community support, and benefits tailored to the needs of freelancers.
- Gig Workers Rising (https://www.gigworkersrising.org/): An initiative focused on educating and mobilizing gig workers to secure better protections, pay, and benefits.
- Gig Economy Data Hub (https://www.gigeconomydata.org/): A comprehensive resource providing statistics, studies, and insights into the gig economy’s evolution and impact.
- Platform Cooperativism Consortium (https://platform.coop/): An initiative advocating for democratically owned and governed platforms, allowing gig workers a say in the platforms they work on.
An Analysis Of The Gag Orders In Criminal Cases Against Former President Trump
An Analysis Of The Gag Orders In Criminal Cases Against Former President Trump
Civil Rights Policy Brief #213 | By: Rodney A. Maggay | October 25, 2023
Photo taken from: cnbc.com
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Policy Summary:
Over the last two months former President Donald Trump has been issued a gag order in two separate criminal cases against him.
In New York, the former President is facing criminal charges of civil fraud brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James. That case accuses Donald Trump and his sons of fraudulently inflating his personal net worth in order to acquire bank loans on more favorable terms. In the months leading up to the trial, the court issued Trump a limited gag order in order to try and limit some of his inflammatory comments while allowing him to still speak on public issues. However, on his social media account Truth Social, the former President posted a statement attacking one of Judge Arthur Engoron’s law clerks and implied that the law clerk had had an inappropriate relationship with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. (Judge Engoron is the judge overseeing the civil fraud trial). The disparaging post was taken down from the Truth Social site but was not taken down from a separate Trump campaign website. Judge Engoron subsequently fined Trump for the delay in taking down the post from his campaign website but also warned Trump and his legal team that more severe sanctions would be considered, including being held in contempt of court and even jail time, if Trump and his team did not abide by the limited gag order and if they continued to ignore the court’s orders.
In Washington D.C., President Trump is facing four criminal charges in connection with his attempt to subvert the 2020 presidential election. The trial is scheduled to begin on March 4, 2024 before Judge Tonya Chutkan. In recent weeks, former President Trump on his social media platforms and in public speeches has attacked witnesses, prosecutors (he referred to them as thugs) and court staff. In response, Judge Chutkan issued a gag order that barred the former President from making inflammatory and derogatory statements aimed at court personnel. Judge Chutkan stated “First Amendment protections yield to the administration of justice and to the protection of witnesses.” However, on October 20th, Judge Chutkan agreed to temporarily stay her gag order in order to permit Trump’s attorneys to argue before her why the President should not be restricted in his public comments. Judge Chutkan also ordered special counsel Jack Smith’s team to file their arguments opposing the lifting of the restrictions and gag order on comments made by Trump. Additionally, Trump’s lawyers filed an appeal to the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE
Policy Analysis:
Former President Trump is facing separate criminal charges for separate actions in separate courts yet the gag orders issued in the separate cases have a common theme running through both of them. How should a court balance the First Amendment Free Speech rights of a criminal defendant with a court’s role in maintaining operations of the court and in administering justice?
A closer analysis of both of the gag order situations reveals that the Trump team’s arguments for Free Speech rights for their client have been mischaracterized. In the New York case, Trump’s comments were directed at a court staffer in order to smear her, the court and indirectly, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer. In the D.C. election subversion case, Trump’s comments there followed a similar pattern. The statements he made about Special Counsel Jack Smith and his team of prosecutors was intended to again smear and belittle court personnel who were simply doing their jobs. Both instances show an intent to intimidate people out of the President’s anger and frustration and it was a point singled out by Judge Chutkan.
In a hearing to determine the scope of the gag order in the D.C. case, Judge Chutkan acknowledged that Trump’s rhetoric could intimidate witnesses and the jury pool and could influence some of Trump’s followers to violence. But noting that there were legitimate free speech concerns, she brilliantly divided Trump’s comments into five categories and grilled Trump’s lawyers on what could be an appropriate restriction in each scenario. There were Trump comments on the people of Washington, D.C., comments on the Biden Administration, comments on the prosecutors, comments on the court and finally comments on the witnesses. Judge Chutkan declined to add further restrictions on the first two categories because of Trump’s free speech rights to talk about public policy issues (crime in D.C. and criticism of Biden’s Administration) and because he is a presidential candidate who would be expected to weigh in on these matters. However, with the last three Judge Chutkan drew a line that targeting court staff, witnesses or the prosecutors and their family were unacceptable because of the potential for violence against them to help Trump in some way. She stated that all criminal defendants are rarely permitted to interfere with court operations or proceedings with inflammatory speech. A criminal defendant running for President of the United States next year should not be given a free speech exception to intimidate, harass and potentially place in harm’s way court staff and personnel or their families. While balancing what a political candidate can say and preventing possible harm is entwined with Tump’s case, Judge Chutkan gets it right when she broke down Trump’s comments into categories and singles out the attempts at harassment and intimidation as speech not being worthy of free speech protections.
All four of Trump’s criminal cases are moving forward towards trial. So, it will be interesting to see if the former President will abide by the court’s rulings on what he can say or if he will ignore them and face potentially stiffer penalties, including jail time.
Engagement Resources:
- Vox – explanation of the gag order against Trump and possible consequences if he violates it.
- Free Speech Center – analysis of the gag order against Trump.
This brief was compiled by Rod Maggay. If you have comments or want to add the name of your organization to this brief, please contact rodwood@email.com.
The Candidacies of Robert Kennedy Jr and Cornell West
The Candidacies of Robert Kennedy Jr and Cornell West
Elections & Politics Policy Brief #103 | By: William Borque | October 20, 2023
Photo taken from: thehill.com
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With the 2024 Presidential race beginning to heat up, most of the action is focused on the Republican primary. However, there are some outsider names on the left that have also been stirring the pot. While neither is likely to garner any notable support, both have gotten their share of headlines in recent weeks and months. The first is Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the son of Former Attorney General and Presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy. Junior is running as an independent and is known for his distrust of vaccines and absurd rallies where he attempts to prove his physical prowess.
Kennedy’s views are largely conspiratorial, with many arguing that he is running for President simply to attempt relevance. He often discusses his thoughts on the COVID-19 pandemic, stating that he thinks it may have been started on purpose. He draws on his history as an environmental lawyer and does have strong pro-environment views. He supports sustainable farming practices and the elimination of fossil fuels and is in favor of the Green New Deal. He also has views which border on the unbelievable, like that the CIA was involved in JFK’s murders and that prescription antidepressants cause mass shootings.
While Kennedy has some small pockets of support amongst the extreme left, he is not going to garner any change to electoral results based on current polls. One of his most vocal celebrity supporters is New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is notably anti-vaccine. If RFK is to draw support away from anyone, it is likely to be President Biden, given his stances on most issues other than vaccines.
Another notable name that may draw support away from President Biden is far left activist Cornel West. West is an activist, philosopher, and university Professor who has moved from the People’s Party to the Green Party and is now running as an independent. The Green Party is currently without a candidate since West’s departure. West has strong positions on social justice and equality, most of which he has spoken out about in his career. He is notably anti-capitalist and has spoken extensively on the subject. West also has a strong belief in public housing, the reduction of military spending, the Green New Deal, and universal healthcare for all Americans.
West is arguably further on the fringe than Kennedy Jr but may be seen as an alternative for far-left voters who aren’t anti-vaccine. West is a socialist and is supported by many in the Democratic Socialists of America, although they haven’t issued an official endorsement yet. West may swing slightly more progressive voters than RFK, which should worry Biden. West is far less of a wildcard and holds more mainstream progressive views. If Biden doesn’t take progressive action in the next year, progressive voters may begin supporting West to put the pressure on.
Although neither are a serious threat to win the presidency, they may be a key factor in determining whether Joe Biden retains the White House. Third party candidates have been factors in presidential races before, most notably in recent history with the Green Party’s Ralph Nader. Nader won 3% of the national vote, taking away votes in key states from Al Gore and winning the presidency for George Bush. Ross Perot was another notable third-party candidate, taking key voters away from Bob Dole and securing President Clinton an easy re-election. George Washington warned of a two-party system tearing our country apart, and it seems that he predicted our current predicament. Third party candidates are a key cog in the wheel of democracy.
Examining Competitive US House Races in the West
Examining Competitive US House Races in the West
Elections & Politics Policy Brief #102 | By: Ian Milden | October 20, 2023
Photo taken from: theguardian.com
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Democrats lost their majority in the House of Representatives in the 2022 mid-term elections. However, the small size of the Republican majority leaves Democrats with a path to re-take the House majority. This brief will take an early look at some of the races in the western United States (outside of California, which I already previewed).
Analysis
Republicans shocked many pundits by only winning a four-seat majority in the House of Representatives during the midterm elections. The changing political landscape in the southwest provides some additional opportunities for Democrats.
Democrats have won some recent statewide elections in Arizona due to growing support in Maricopa County, which contains the city of Phoenix and some of its suburbs. Congressman David Schweikert (R-AZ) represents part of Maricopa County (Arizona’s first district), which is becoming more competitive. Schweikert won re-election in 2022 by only slightly over 3,000 votes. Schweikert has also recently been reprimanded by the House Ethics Committee for violating rules on using official funds. Schweikert’s campaign also got fined by the FEC for campaign finance rule violations. Democrats have a large field of candidates running for the nomination to face Schweikert.
Arizona’s 6th district, which contains part of Tuscan, will also have a competitive race. This district is currently represented by Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), who won the open seat by a little over 6,000 votes. Ciscomani is currently seeking reelection. Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) was the previous representative for the seat, so the seat is winnable for Democrats. Changes in redistricting have made it a Republican-leaning seat. Kirsten Engel, a former state legislator who lost to Ciscomani in 2022, is running for the Democratic nomination again.
Oregon’s 5th district should also be a target for Democrats. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) won the seat after incumbent Kurt Schrader (D-OR) lost in the primary. The district was reconfigured in redistricting due to Oregon gaining an additional district in reapportionment. The district has a Democratic lean, so Democrats can win if they recruit the right candidate. Schrader was a centrist, so another moderate would likely have the best chance of defeating Chavez-DeRemer.
Colorado’s third district had the closest race in the country in 2022 with Congresswoman Lauren Boebert winning re-election by less than 600 votes. This isn’t a district that Democrats usually compete in because it is composed of a large number of rural counties. Republicans might have been caught sleeping in 2022, so they may devote more resources here. However, local Republicans could try to defeat Boebert in a primary if they are tired of her behavior. Boebert is facing opposition in the Republican primary, and a different nominee could help Republicans win the General Election with a lot less trouble.
In addition to these target districts, Democrats will also have to defend several districts. Colorado’s newly created 8th district, which is north of Denver, was decided by less than 3000 votes. Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo (D-CO) will run for reelection. It remains unclear who the Republicans will nominate. A Libertarian candidate took nearly 4% of the vote in 2022, and Democrats can’t bet on that happening again.
Democrats will have to defend a few incumbents who won their seats due to unusual dynamics and poor Republican candidates. In Alaska, Mary Peltola (D-AK) will run for a second term after defeating Sarah Palin twice in 2022. In Washington State, Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez will be defending the seat she won against a conspiracy theorist. The seat was previously held by Jamie Herrera Beutler, who failed to advance from the primary after she voted to impeach Trump in 2021. If Republicans nominate better candidates in these races, then these seats might flip back to Republican control.
Congresswoman Kim Schrier (D-WA) will defend a slightly Democratic-leaning swing district east of Seattle. Schrier won the open seat in 2018. In Nevada, the redistricting process made three competitive districts in the Las Vegas area, which are held by Dina Titus (D-NV), Susie Lee (D-NV), and Stephen Horsford (D-NV). If any of them lose, it’s probably a bad sign for Democrats’ prospects in the state in 2024.
New Mexico’s Congressional Districts are also in a similar spot, where Democrats control three competitive seats. The second district, represented by Gabe Vazquez (D-NM), has swung back and forth in recent years. Vasquez defeated Congresswoman Yvette Harrell in 2022 by less than 1500 votes. Harrell is seeking a rematch in 2024.
While the western states outside of California don’t provide many opportunities for Democrats to pick up seats, there are several seats that they need to defend to regain the majority.
Engagement Resources:
- DCCC Website, Official Campaign Arm of House Democrats, https://dccc.org/
The Nightmare Started at 7 in the Morning
The Nightmare Started at 7 in the Morning
Foreign Policy Brief #95 | By: Yelena Korshunov | October 19, 2023
Photo taken from: abc.net
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“The nightmare started at 7 in the morning,” say the parents of Itai (18) and Mia Regev (21), who attended the nature party in Reim that ended in disaster. The siblings were among the more than 150 kidnapped in Gaza in recent days. Ilan and Mirit Regev, the parents of Itai and Mia, recreate the moments of horror to a correspondent of Israeli news portal Walla.co.il. According to them, after 43 hours of hell, they finally were able to find out that their two children were among the abductees in Gaza, and they smiled for the first time, “Now the war begins, we will bring them back alive.”
“I got a call from my 14-year-old son, he asked if I heard the alarms,” shared Ilan Regev. “We have 3 children, we are divorced and I don’t live with them at home. At 8:01 I get a call from my daughter saying, ‘Dad, there are missiles here, we’re fine, don’t worry, we’ll wait for it to calm down and go home’’ I didn’t even know the location of the party, they also knew at the last minute, I asked her to send me a location just to be aware and she sent it along with a picture of the party, and everything looked fine. Just before she hung up, she said, ‘Dad, I love you very much, I’ll be back in a moment, I’ll call from the road.’ An hour passed. An hour and a half later, she doesn’t call, I try to call but she doesn’t answer. I try again and she doesn’t answer. I’m worried but I couldn’t imagine something like this would happen. At 8:58 I get a call from Mia screaming, ‘Dad they are shooting at us, they shoot at me, I’m dead. Help!’ And then hell began…”
The festival took place in the kibbutz Reim which is located near the border of the Gaza Strip. On the morning of October 7, Hamas militants broke into Israeli territory and attacked people at the event, mostly youth. The bodies of about 260 people were found at the site.
Kfar Aza is a kibbutz located two kilometers from the Gaza Strip, near the city of Sderot. On October 7 the kibbutz was attacked by Hamas militants. Many residents, including about 40 women and children, were killed, the rest were taken hostage to the Gaza Strip. It took the Israeli military more than 24 hours to drive the terrorists out of the kibbutz.
According to the latest data, more than 1,200 Israelis, including 155 soldiers, were killed and another 2,400 were injured. It is believed that about 150 people were taken hostage. Among them are children, women, elderly people, and Holocaust survivors.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on opposition parties to join a unity government, as they did 50 years ago during the Yom Kippur War. He said the future of the nation was at stake in the war against Hamas. Both the Israel Defense Forces and the country’s air force announced the start of the operation immediately after Hamas attack. The same evening the Israeli military said that the Israeli Air Force had carried out one of the “most powerful air strikes in history against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.” During the retaliatory bombing of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli army, at least 1,055 Palestinians were killed and more than 5,180 were injured. Israel reports hundreds of Hamas fighters are among them. The Israel Defense Forces said at least 2,400 Hamas targets were hit on Monday alone. In the north, the Israeli army is also conducting an operation against Hezbollah on Lebanese territory.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had ordered a complete blockade of the Gaza Strip. “I gave the order that Gaza will be under complete siege,” he said. “There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel [in Gaza]. We are fighting barbaric [terrorists] and will respond accordingly.”
In addition to the Israelis and Palestinians, citizens of at least 25 other countries were killed or injured. There is still no exact data on those murdered, wounded, and taken hostage. The Israel Defense Forces, as well as governments of other countries, regularly update the lists of victims of the attack by Hamas terrorists. “This attack was a campaign of pure cruelty – not just hate, but cruelty against the Jewish people, “said president Biden, “and I would argue it’s the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. /…/ I refuse to be silent, and I know you refuse to be silent as well.” Pro-Israel rallies are taking place all over the world these days supporting human’s right to be free and safe on their land.
The Medium is the Manipulation, Part 2: Detecting the AI in Campaign Advertising
The Medium is the Manipulation, Part 2: Detecting the AI in Campaign Advertising
Technology Policy Brief #99 | By: Steve Piazza | October 19, 2023
Photo taken from: thenewshouse.com
This series looks to explore the extent to which campaign ads and speeches, as well as policy frameworks of political candidates, employ deliberate strategies of disinformation and fallacy to not only discredit their political opponents but also add to the continued abusive miseducation of the U.S. populace and thus further increase the national divide. Campaign ads are not in and of themselves policy, but their message reflects a candidate’s or party’s policy of sorts, namely on how far it is willing to go to get what it wants.
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Politicians on both sides of the aisle have railed against the abuses of using artificial intelligence (AI) during political campaigns. During a hearing last month of the U.S. Senate Committee on Rules and Administration, members spelled out the harm of disinformation, particularly deep fakes (the use of AI to alter or replace faces/bodies). They also agreed that imposing laws wouldn’t be easy. Nonetheless, bill’s requiring ads to contain disclaimers when AI is being used have been introduced in both chambers.
Outside Congress, The Federal Elections Commission (FEC) is holding a public hearing period as it considers issuing regulations to prevent abuses. But such regulations cannot entirely resolve the problem, since the FEC doesn’t have the authority to stop groups like Political Action Committees (PACs) from using it, let alone users on social media.
Only acts of Congress can do that, acts that are risky in an environment that is akin to a cold war.
Policy Analysis
Political campaigns are perpetually in search of the most efficient and far-reaching methods to increase their volunteer base, expand the reach of direct contact with voters, and raise more funds. Many of these efforts integrate the latest technologies, if nothing but to assure that the other side does not gain advantage. AI is one of those technologies.
A number of companies actively serve both political parties, and have become a normal part of the landscape. Companies like DSPolitical, Quiller, and Sterling Data have realized a good deal of success in Democratic campaigns, an indication Democrats are way out ahead in the use of AI.
Yet, since more popular chatbots and image generators, like Open AI’s ChatGPT (text) and DALL-E 2 (images), have been criticized as catering to the left, right leaning companies have been inspired to develop products for conservative clients. For example, Targeted Victory’s online tools and Tusk Browser’s chatbot known as GIPPR (yes, inspired by former President Reagan’s nickname), have been gaining in popularity.
Yet, current concerns are not with pragmatic approaches to logistics. AI most certainly provides highly effective mechanisms to process and analyze information, but it also contains ways it can be manipulated.
Gathering and organizing data via AI is one thing, but using it to persuade voters can become hazardous.
For example, AI can not only determine reader’s preferences, but it can even copy what’s been previously read, and paste it directly into newly acquired content to assure the reader is getting the continuity to remain influenced. And even though new methods have been developed to help readers break free from so-called content-recommendation bubbles, new schemes using such AI methods place them right back in.
Perhaps what is most disconcerting is when AI produces modified images and/or sound that to the casual observer might on the surface appear real, yet is certainly not. Images have long been doctored for aesthetic reasons, but now images are being created to stand as the primary sources themselves.
Imagine seeing AI generated images of a candidate saying something completely false. Or, consider receiving a fundraising phone call from a candidate or celebrity that is in reality a completely fabricated audio recording.
Potential threats have already become a grim reality. One example is an ad released by the Republican National Committee showing a barrage of apocalyptic images that indicate what would result if Joe Biden were to be reelected. Another, this one produced by the DeSantis campaign, shows Donald Trump hugging Anthony Fauci.
Some major companies, such as Open AI and Google have pledged to prevent deceiving ads from being generated, though, with some artistic exceptions. Yet, without any state or federal laws, such efforts can only do so much.
From a consumer standpoint, there are many ways that people can protect themselves from being manipulated. It’s important to maintain good search practices by cross-checking other sites to verify information, and examining all photos for irregular spacing and poses. A number of sites claim to expose instances of misinformation online, but it’s important to also make sure that these sites are legitimate. Readers can also be on the lookout for new AI software and add-on tools, such as those like NYU’s Pyrorank, which attempts to break through AI generated recommendations to provide a larger, and more importantly, varied number of choices.
For now, the leviathan has been unleashed in an industry that is already enormously profitable. As Statista predicts, $15.2 billion political ad revenue is to be made in 2024. With the amount of money at stake, it’s no wonder the talk about passage of laws seems more symbolic. In an ironic reflection of AI, just because there seems to be protective action taking place doesn’t necessarily mean that it actually is.
Engagement Resources:
- For a comprehensive look at the use of AI in political campaigns this piece by Tectonica, a group dedicated to changing the political landscape through the use of technology, is worth a read: https://www.tectonica.co/ai_reading_list
- Read more on researchers work on NYU’s Pyrorank here: https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2023/july/researchers-devise-algorithm-to-break-through–search-bubbles-.html
The Hamas October 7th Terrorist Incursion Into Israel: A Survivor’s Account
The Hamas October 7th Terrorist Incursion Into Israel: A Survivor’s Account
Foreign Policy Brief #94 | By: Ester Avisror | October 19, 2023
Photo taken from: usnews.com
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This is another in a seies of profiles of the particpoants affected by the conflict between Israel and Hamas
On Saturday, October 7th, 2023, at about 6:30am, attendees at the NOVA rave celebrated life, music, and friendship in Re’im, Israel – until they faced unspeakable trauma. Young women and men faced the raw alarm of death, as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists arrived in vans and motorcycles, firing bullets which consumed over 250 people in unending horror.
Only a few survivors managed to escape – to find their breath again. The following is a personal testimony, told by one of the survivors. The first name of the survivor is omitted for anonymity and safety.
Ms. Guy, a 23-year-old who lives in Meitar, southern Israel, describes the incredulous story about the deadly rave party that took place in tents. “Suddenly, many sirens started going off, and the sky was filled with smoke [from Hamas’ rockets fired from Gaza]. We hopped into the car, thankfully. We were behind the scene, because if we had tried to be in front, I would not have wanted to know what would have happened”, she said. “Abruptly, people left their cars and ran the opposite way.” Then, we heard gunshots which were getting stronger. Hence, people were hysterically running, and I heard someone screaming: ‘someone has been shot’. We continued running, and we called our parents telling them we were being shot at and that we heard gunshots. After, we entered an extremely crowded bunker while trying to pull in as many people as we could. The police were saying to us: ‘run to an open area’. The terrorists were approaching, and we ran, and sand was in our face. While hearing gunshots and seeing people fall behind us, we saw, on the left side, a car with a wounded woman and people trying to help her. And then, the picture started to be clear; we were being slaughtered.”
There are dozens of survivor testimonies like Ms. Guy’s out there to bear witness to. They help us to understand Israel’s reaction to this tragedy, and its goal to eliminate a terrorist organization like Hamas from governing the Gaza strip.
DEMOCRATIC PARTY PLATFORM SUGGESTIONS PART 3: IMMIGRATION
DEMOCRATIC PARTY PLATFORM SUGGESTIONS PART 3: IMMIGRATION
OP ED | By: U.S. Resist News | October 16, 2023
Photo taken from: npr.org
This is the 3rd in a series of U.S. RESIST DEMOCRACY NEWS recommendations of platform positions for use by 2024 Democratic Party candidates.
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US immigration policy is in disarray. The number of immigrants crossing our border and coming not just to border states but to practically everywhere in the country is growing. The Republicans are sure to try and target immigration as a major issue in the 2024 elections. To head off their assault Democrats must take the lead in advocating for immigration reform legislation; if not comprehensive reform (which may be difficult because there are so many moving parts) at least reform that addresses the missing pieces in the current system.. How should they do it? What should they emphasize? U.S. RESIST NEWS makes the following suggestions.
1. Emphasize the we are a nation of immigrants; that all of us are descendants of people from other countries, many of who whom were fleeing war, political and religious persecution; that immigrants are part of the fabric of American life.
2. Emphasize that and that the United states needs to keep its doors open as a beacon of hope and opportunity for those living in less fortunate circumstances than we are; that we are living in a time of global upheaval where people are being uprooted from their lands because of war, conflict, authoritarian rule, climate change and other factors.
3. Emphasize that our country’s growth and vitality is dependent on the hard-work and entrepreneurial spirit of immigrants; that there are many occupational needs going unfulfilled that immigrants have and can provide.
4. Emphasize that immigration has limits; that we cannot accept everyone all the time all at once; that we need to have an orderly fair and just process for admitting people and giving them opportunities to earn their citizenship; and that the process is dependent in large part on how many immigrants we can reasonably support.
5. That immigration cannot be used as a means to house terrorists, criminals, and human rights abusers.
6. That immigration is a combined responsibility of federal state and local governments, with the federal government making most policies, establishing immigration laws, and assisting the states in their efforts to support the economic and social needs of the newly arrived.
7. States that intentionally interfere with the immigration efforts of other states, without their permission, are doing so illegally are in conflict with federal policy, and should be fined.
8. In these times federal immigration aid to states needs to be greatly and rapidly increased.
9. Federal and state governments need to greatly and rapidly increase the numbers of professionals handling immigration affairs, including border patrol officers, judges, social workers, and others. These professionals need to be added in order to shorten the time required to process asylum seekers and immigrant requests, and care and service immigrants to help ensure their smooth transition into American life.
10. Emphasize the distinction between documented and undocumented immigrants, and take steps needed to reduce the numbers of undocumented immigrants.
11. Temporary housing and shelter for immigrants needs to be adequate, humane and meet basic health and safety standards. Children without parents or guardians need to be provided with foster care.
12. Waiting times to seek approval or disapproval for entry need to be kept to a minimum; as does the time before a newly arrived documented immigrant can work and be eligible for government benefits.
13. Dreamers, the children of immigrants, born outside the US but who arrived in the US before the age of 16, need to be granted access to citizenship as soon as possible.
14. Priority for work visas should continue to be granted to immigrants with needed job and technical skills.
15. The United States needs to do more to coordinate its immigration policy with other countries. For example, immigrants should be encouraged to apply for entry to the US in their country of origin, if that country has a US embassy.
16. The US needs to work to strengthen global immigration laws and governance, so that immigration becomes a shared responsibility of all countries.