Sweating on the Treadmill of COP28: Will COP29 Deliver on Crucial Emissions Cuts?
Environment Policy Brief #163 | By: Todd J. Broadman | December 21, 2023
Photo taken from: https://www.ecocemglobal.com
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POLICY
The United Nations sponsored COP (Conference of Parties) was kicked-off in 1995 with its stated goal to “stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses at levels that would prevent ‘dangerous’ human interference with the climate system.” Since then, concentrations of CO2 have gone up each year. The data for 2023 indicates that it will be the hottest year on record, surpassing 2016, which was 1.29 degrees centigrade above the pre-industrial baseline. Greenhouse gases will tally to a record 36.8 billion metric tons in 2023. Ocean temperatures are at all-time record highs as is sea level rise. There is a record low: Antarctic Sea ice. There has been, as summed-up by World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas, “a deafening cacophony of broken records.”
Fast forward 28 years and “COP” was appropriately dubbed “COP28” and was held in Dubai. Since 1995, what was foretold in COP’s original prognosis has come to pass: catastrophic floods, droughts, species extinction, human death along with forced migration. The earth has been an increasingly hazardous place to reside, and there is the scientific basis for a tipping point.
The frustrations of COP28 attendees have been in line with the lack of concrete commitments each year, and this year was no different. The original draft of COP28’s concluding text was met with widespread disappointment – there had been no mention of “fossil fuels.” Last minute negotiations saw the phrase inserted, yet even the final version of the text made no mention of phasing out fossil fuels, the very plot of the climate change story so to speak. Saudi Arabia insisted that there be no firm end to fossil fuels in the text. No surprise.
In attendance at COP28 were some 1300 representatives from oil and gas industry, the American Petroleum Institute among them, who lobbied for an emphasis on carbon capture and renewables. President Biden was conspicuously absent. Al Gore attended and commented that the draft text looked to be “dictated by OPEC word for word.” The biggest users of coal, India and China, were concerned about any mention of phasing out coal and ensured the commitment for coal use – if it can be called that – echoes the vague language of COP26: “an acceleration of efforts towards phasedown.” There is a “net zero” clause inserted, with a 2050 timeline “in keeping with science.” Use of the term “transition fuels” was of concern as well because it may serve as cover for natural gas.
A “loss and damage” fund was established with pledges of $666 million dollars to help fund climate-related damage and destruction in the poorest countries. The fund will be managed by the World Bank who could charge up to 30% for its trusteeship. Worth a mention is that pledge amounts are a fraction of what is needed. U.S. contribution to the fund was a paltry $17.5 million; that, from a country whose defense budget exceeds $2 billion dollars a day. Germany and the UAE each pledged $100 million.
ANALYSIS
The edge of the “climate cliff” was defined eight years ago at the Paris Agreement as a warming of the earth’s temperature to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. Sultan Al Jaber, the acting president of COP28, said that 1.5 degrees Celsius is his “North Star.” Jaber’s daytime job is that of chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ national oil and gas company and has made it clear that “at the end of the day, it is the demand that will decide and dictate what sort of energy source will help meet the growing global energy requirements.” There are conflicting interests and multiple “North Stars” out there.
Leading scientists agree that there is a strong likelihood that in one of the next five years the global average temperature will reach or exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The COP28 agreement does practically nothing to avoid this immediate consequence. The U.S.’s John Kerry admitted as much, describing that the language on fossil fuels in the text “does not meet the test” of keeping 1.5 alive, and went as far as to say he “refused to be part of a charade.” Small island nations who will soon be under meters of water echoed that sentiment: “[We] did not come here to sign our death warrant,” said John Silk, from the Marshall Islands.
Referencing the large corporate oil and gas presence at COP28, its president among them, Uganda’s Vanessa Nakate, quipped that, “Some people might say that if you are discussing how to cure malaria, you don’t invite the mosquitoes.” With vague language and unenforceable commitments, COP28’s bottom line is: “We will try.” We are left to imagine the state of our global environment next year when COP29 will be hosted in Azerbaijan and what can happen between now and then to motivate an ending to carbon based energy.
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Engagement Resources:
- https://council.science/ works at the global level to catalyze and convene scientific expertise, advice and influence on issues of major concern to both science and society.
- https://insideclimatenews.org/ is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that provides essential reporting and analysis on climate change, energy and the environment.
- https://www.ipcc.ch/ is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.
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