Money in politics is as American as apple pie and tossing the pigskin, but its sheer size and impact would boggle an onlooker’s mind. When you show the size of total spending on advertisements in 2024, it looks almost comical: $11,200,000,000.
South Dakota, or the Mount Rushmore State, is deeply Republican, but the national environment has opened the door for Democrats to make inroads across the country, even with South Dakotans. While a Democrat has not won a federal statewide race in the state since 2008, Trump’s declining approval, the prolonged war with Iran, & persistent inflation have created a more difficult environment for Republicans nationally. Recent polling shows Trump’s approval at a second-term low while support for the war in Iran has also fallen, including among Republicans.
Rhode Island, or the Ocean State, enters 2026 as another reliable Democratic stronghold in New England. Democrats currently control both of the state’s Senate seats & both House districts, giving the party complete control of Rhode Island’s federal delegation. Incumbent Senator Jack Reed is seeking another term alongside House incumbents Gabe Amo in RI-01 & Seth Magaziner in RI-02. All three enter the election cycle in strong positions to return to Washington.
Oregon should easily remain a Democratic stronghold in 2026. Democrats control both of the state’s Senate seats & 5 of its 6 House seats. Incumbent Senator Jeff Merkley should secure re-election, maintaining Democrats’ sweep in the Senate.
In California, voters approved a mid-decade redistricting plan that replaced the state’s independent redistricting commission with a map expected to net Democrats as many as five additional House seats. The move by the Golden State came in response to a similar effort by Republicans in Texas, setting the stage for one of the most consequential redistricting battles in recent history. As it stands today, Democrats appear well-positioned to capitalize on the new map.
In Florida, the primary election will take place on August 18th. The former swing state has shifted firmly into Republican control over the past decade. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis signed a mid-decade congressional map into law that could expand the GOP’s advantage in the state from 20-8 to as much as 24-4. As President Donald J. Trump’s home state, Florida Republicans are taking every available step to protect & expand their hold over the Sunshine State.
Wyoming is the most Republican state in the country at the presidential level, having gone for Donald Trump by more than 45 points in 2024, and Democrats have not won a statewide race since 2006 or a U.S. Senate seat in the state since 1970.
North Carolina, the Tar Heel state, enters the 2026 election cycle as one of the nation’s most closely watched battleground states. While Republicans have enjoyed success in many statewide federal races over the last decade, Democrats remain highly competitive thanks to continued growth in urban centers such as Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, & Greensboro. At the same time, Republicans continue to dominate much of rural eastern & western North Carolina, creating a state that is often decided on the margins. That said, North Carolina may represent Democrats’ best Senate pickup opportunity in 2026.
New Mexico, or the Land of Enchantment, has a Senate seat up for grabs, along with 3 House races. All 5 of New Mexico’s current congressional seats are held by Democrats & all 4 offices on the ballot are being defended by Democratic incumbents. Incumbent Ben Ray Luján will face the Republican candidate, Larry Marker, who ran as a write-in candidate & need to surpass a vote total to be on the ballot in November.
Missouri, the “Show Me State,” enters the 2026 election cycle as a firmly Republican-controlled state, with all eight U.S. House seats on the ballot and no Senate race this cycle. Democrats currently hold just two congressional districts, MO-01 and MO-05, represented by Wesley Bell and Emanuel Cleaver, respectively. Both districts are anchored in the state’s urban cores of St. Louis and Kansas City and are considered safely Democratic.
Oklahoma’s 2026 federal elections will feature one U.S. Senate race and five House contests. The state is reliably Republican across all five congressional districts, and post-redistricting maps have made each seat structurally safe for the GOP.
North Dakota’s 2026 federal elections will feature a single at-large U.S. House race, the state’s only federal contest. The state remains among the most reliably Republican in the nation — no Democrat has won statewide since Heidi Heitkamp’s Senate victory in 2012 — and the at-large House seat is not considered competitive by national forecasters.