In Florida, the primary election will take place on August 18th. The former swing state has shifted firmly into Republican control over the past decade. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis signed a mid-decade congressional map into law that could expand the GOP’s advantage in the state from 20-8 to as much as 24-4. As President Donald J. Trump’s home state, Florida Republicans are taking every available step to protect & expand their hold over the Sunshine State.
That said, redistricting like this can be a gamble. In a political climate where Trump & Republicans more broadly are viewed unfavorably, moving Republican voters out of safe districts & into more competitive ones could create openings for Democrats. Trump’s war with Iran, aggressive ICE enforcement, rising costs, & growing tensions involving Cuba could all produce changes on the ground in Florida. Still, the Senate race is rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, meaning that any Democratic progress is more likely to come in individual districts or localized areas than through a major statewide shift.
While Democrats may not see immediate success statewide, it is vital for the party to continue organizing across Florida, especially as voters adjust to the new map & the districts undergo demographic changes. Under the previous map, Democrats held more districts that were considered safely in their column. In 2026, only 4 districts are rated Solid Democratic, while one Democratic-held seat is a Toss Up & several others fall into the Lean or Likely Republican categories.
The new map may have reduced the number of seats Democrats control without question, but it has also increased the number of districts where the outcome could depend on the broader national environment. There are now roughly 7 competitive races worth watching, though some are Democratic defenses rather than true pickup opportunities. Winning most of them would be a long shot, but the possibility highlights the gamble created by aggressive redistricting during a potential Democratic wave election. If Democrats could sweep, they would gain 4 seats compared to 2024 map.
Sunshine State voters can cast their primary ballots on August 18th, followed by the general election on November 3rd.
Senate
With Marco Rubio now serving as Secretary of State, Florida will hold a special election to fill the remainder of his Senate term. Alex Vindman (male, 51) & Angie Nixon (female, 42) are the two Democrats vying for the seat. Vindman was born in Kyiv, Ukraine, & is a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who served as Director for European Affairs on the National Security Council. He rose to national prominence after testifying during Trump’s first impeachment over the President’s pressure on Ukraine while military aid was being withheld.
Nixon, a Jacksonville native, has served in the Florida House since 2020. She has built her political profile around affordable housing, public education, fair wages, healthcare, & support for working-class families. While Nixon brings experience in elected office, Vindman’s national name recognition, fundraising advantage, & role in Trump’s first impeachment have made him the favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
The winner will likely face appointed Republican Senator Ashley Moody. Most polling gives Moody an advantage, reflecting both her incumbency & the GOP’s structural strength in Florida. However, the most recently fielded poll from Freedom Project USA & Change Research found that Moody & Vindman were tied at 46% among likely voters. The poll came from a Democratic-aligned group, while another June poll from a business group that endorsed Moody placed her ahead by 7 points. The difference between the polls shows why the race should be viewed cautiously, but a tie in any statewide Florida survey is still notable given how far the state has shifted toward Republicans.
Democrats remain long shots to take the seat, but the race is worth watching as November approaches. If Trump’s approval continues to struggle & the national environment moves further toward Democrats, Vindman could at least force Republicans to spend time & money defending a seat that would normally be considered safe if not outright win.
House
Over in the House, Democrats face a difficult environment created largely by Florida’s new congressional map. While national conditions may favor the party in 2026, Republicans redrew the state in a way that places several Democratic incumbents in districts that now lean toward the GOP. Democrats will have opportunities to compete in Republican-held districts, but their first priority will be protecting the seats they already control.
The most important Democratic defenses are FL-09, FL-14, & FL-25. Incumbent Darren Soto is running unopposed in the Democratic primary in FL-09, but the new district heavily favors Republicans. Soto has shown an ability to outperform the top of the Democratic ticket in the past, giving him at least an outside chance to survive, though he enters as an underdog.
In FL-14, incumbent Kathy Castor is also running unopposed in the Democratic primary. Castor has represented the Tampa area for nearly two decades, but the redrawn district now leans Republican. Her incumbency, fundraising network, & deep ties to the region give Democrats a real chance to hold the seat, making this one of the most important races in Florida.
FL-25 may be the closest race in the state. Incumbent Jared Moskowitz faces Oliver Larkin in the Democratic primary, though Moskowitz enters with the advantages of incumbency, fundraising, & name recognition. The newly drawn district stretches along the Atlantic Coast from portions of Palm Beach County into Miami-Dade & is expected to be highly competitive in November. A Moskowitz victory would prevent Republicans from fully realizing the gains they intended to create through redistricting.
Democrats should remain safe in districts such as FL-10, represented by Maxwell Frost, along with the heavily Democratic districts centered in South Florida. However, some of those seats feature crowded Democratic primaries that could determine the next generation of party leadership. FL-20 includes Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Luther Campbell, Elijah Manley, & several other Democrats, while FL-24 has a large field competing for the open seat after Frederica Wilson failed to qualify for the ballot.
On offense, Democrats have several Republican-held districts worth watching. FL-07 has drawn a crowded Democratic field seeking to challenge Cory Mills, including Jennifer Adams, former Congressman Alan Grayson, Marialana Kinter, & Noah Widmann. Mills remains favored, but questions surrounding the incumbent & the broader political environment make the district more interesting than a typical Republican seat.
FL-13 also features a crowded Democratic primary, with Fatima Aguerjout, Leela Gray, John Liccione, Reggie Paros, & Brandt Robinson seeking the opportunity to challenge Anna Paulina Luna. The district still favors Republicans, but its location in Pinellas County & history of political competition make it another race Democrats should continue to organize around.
In South Florida, FL-27 may offer Democrats another opportunity to improve on recent results. Mike Davey, Lev Parnas, Robin Peguero, & Eliott Rodriguez are competing for the Democratic nomination against Republican incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar. The district remains Republican-leaning, but changing political conditions in South Florida & the emergence of several candidates with established public profiles make it a race worth following.
Overall, Democrats are more likely to spend 2026 defending vulnerable incumbents than making major gains in Florida. Still, the number of competitive districts created by the new map means Republicans cannot take their expanded advantage for granted. If Democrats can protect Soto, Castor, & Moskowitz while making one or two Republican-held districts genuinely competitive, they could limit the damage of redistricting & begin rebuilding a stronger statewide organization.
Democrats’ Best Chance to Flip
Democrats’ best chance to flip a seat in Florida appears to be FL-27, where Republican incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar faces a growing challenge in South Florida. The district still leans Republican, but recent local election results, concerns over rising costs, & backlash toward the Trump administration’s immigration policies have created an opening for Democrats. Salazar has even warned that aggressive deportation policies could hurt Republicans with Cuban & Venezuelan voters who have helped drive the region’s shift toward the GOP.
The Democratic primary remains unsettled. Former television anchor Eliott Rodriguez has led available primary polling, while former prosecutor Robin Peguero has shown an ability to raise money & build grassroots support. Regardless of who advances, the nominee will need to reconnect with Latino voters who moved toward Republicans in recent elections without assuming dissatisfaction with Trump will automatically bring them back. Salazar remains favored, but FL-27 has moved from a safe Republican seat into one that deserves serious attention.
FL-07 may be Democrats’ most unpredictable opportunity. Republican incumbent Cory Mills represents a district that still favors the GOP, but allegations & controversies surrounding him have created an opening that would not exist against a stronger incumbent. Democrats have a crowded primary field, so the party’s chances may depend heavily on whether voters select a candidate capable of raising money, avoiding a damaging primary, & keeping the general election focused on Mills’ record.
FL-13 also provides a longer-shot opportunity against Republican Anna Paulina Luna. An internal Democratic poll found Luna in a statistical tie with Leela Gray, a retired Army brigadier general, though results from campaign-sponsored polling should be viewed cautiously. The district still favors Republicans, but Luna’s negative ratings in that survey & Gray’s military background make it another race worth watching if the national environment continues moving toward Democrats.
The Senate special election may receive more national attention, but Cook continues to rate that contest Solid Republican. Democrats’ more realistic chances to gain ground may come in these individual House districts. FL-27 currently provides the clearest path, FL-07 offers the most volatile incumbent, & FL-13 stands out as a possible surprise if Democratic momentum turns into a genuine wave.
Recent Interviews
- Alex Vindman – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uv_XbiFuLw
- Angie Nixon – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3CkNQBYJRU
- Jared Moskowitz– https://www.nbcmiami.com/video/video/nbc6-impact-rep-jared-moskowitz-declares-he-will-run-in-new-25th-district/3820647/
- Eliott Rodriguez -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_dXP6IwR08
- Robin Peguero – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LP4F1Q9DZ5E
- Jennifer Adams – https://www.facebook.com/JenniferAdamsFL/videos/my-name-is-jennifer-adams-im-a-mom-survivor-of-domestic-violence-policy-educator/1706332196814585/
- Leela Gray – https://www.linkedin.com/posts/leelajgray_service-over-self-still-guides-me-im-running-activity-7424801945581903872-ATlM
Take Action
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_elections,_2026
- Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness: https://www.cookpolitical.com/
- Donate to Florida through candidates’ websites or to the Party here- https://floridadems.org/