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Foreign Policy Brief #224 | Inijah Quadri | December 14, 2025

Policy Issue Summary

The July 2023 military takeover in Niger, led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani and the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP), marked a significant setback for democratic governance in the Sahel. However, the removal of President Mohamed Bazoum must be viewed not merely as an isolated authoritarian power grab, but as a catalyst for a profound geopolitical realignment. In the two years since the coup, the CNSP has systematically dismantled long-standing security frameworks, resulting in the expulsion of French forces in late 2023 and the complete withdrawal of United States military personnel and the closure of key drone bases by September 2024.

Concurrently, Niger has pivoted toward a new model of regional autonomy. In September 2023, Niger joined Mali and Burkina Faso to form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a pact designed to prioritize mutual defense and internal sovereignty over traditional Western partnerships. This shift culminated in the three nations’ formal exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025. While the rejection of democratic norms and the shift away from ECOWAS are concerning, they signal a deep-seated frustration with the status quo. The region remains volatile, but these developments underscore the urgent need to understand why long-standing US and Western engagement failed to secure stability or win the hearts and minds of the Nigerien people.

Analysis

The events in Niger serve as a critical wake-up call for Western policymakers.  Popular support for the CNSP suggests that the previous democratic arrangement was failing to deliver tangible benefits to the average citizen. For decades, Niger has been integrated into Western economic and security architectures—most notably through uranium exports to France—yet its population remains among the poorest in the world. The CNSP’s recent moves to reclaim control over mining assets, including the revocation of Orano’s operating licenses, resonate with a public that perceives a disconnect between their country’s resource wealth and their own economic reality.

From a US security perspective, the loss of Air Base 201 in Agadez, among other military bases in the region, is a strategic failure that demands introspection. The United States invested millions (possibly billions) of dollars into these installations to project power and counter terrorism. Yet, despite this massive expenditure of tax dollars and a decade of operations, violent extremism in the Sahel metastasized rather than receded.

This creates a painful paradox: The US presence was viewed by many locals not as a partnership for development, but as a militarized occupation that offered little in the way of economic uplift. By prioritizing a “security-first” approach over holistic economic development and governance, US policy inadvertently created a vacuum that the military junta has filled with populist rhetoric and new alliances.

The Niger  junta’s pivot toward Russia—evidenced by the arrival of military instructors and agreements for nuclear energy cooperation—is a direct challenge to American influence. However, dismissing this merely as “malign Russian influence” ignores the agency of African nations. Niger is seeking partners who they believe will offer better terms or more immediate security results. The failure of the “War on Terror” model in the Sahel suggests that without addressing root causes like poverty and lack of opportunity, military assistance alone is insufficient to sustain a democracy.

The lesson is clear: Democracy cannot just be a slogan; it must deliver results. The pivot in Niger is not simply anti-West, but a rejection of a policy framework that failed to improve the lives of Nigeriens. If the United States and France wish to champion democracy and counter the influence of authoritarian rivals like Russia, they must offer a value proposition that goes beyond drone bases and security assistance. Future engagement must respect Nigerien sovereignty while offering genuine economic partnerships that benefit the population, proving that democracy is the most viable path to prosperity.

Engagement Resources

• Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research (https://thetricontinental.org/): A global research institute that produces dossiers and analysis on the Sahel’s struggle for sovereignty, offering a perspective grounded in the needs of the working class and the Global South.
• Peoples Dispatch (https://peoplesdispatch.org/): A media project providing extensive coverage of the Alliance of Sahel States, offering on-the-ground reporting that counters mainstream Western narratives regarding the coups in West Africa.
• Black Agenda Report (https://www.blackagendareport.com/): A news and analysis outlet that consistently critiques US imperialism in Africa, providing detailed commentary on the role of AFRICOM and the political economy of the Sahel.
• Pan-Africanism Today (https://panafricantoday.com/): A secretariat coordinating solidarity with African struggles, which has organized conferences and webinars connecting the movements in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso with broader anti-imperialist networks.
• Urgences Panafricanistes (https://urpan-official.com/): An NGO led by Kemi Seba that campaigns against the CFA franc and French neocolonialism, playing a significant role in the civil society mobilization that supported the expulsion of foreign troops.

Foreign Policy Brief #223 | Abran C. | December 15, 2025

President Zelenskyy addressed the Swedish Parliament on Monday morning. www.president.gov.ua

Ukraine Peace deal?

Ukraine’s government has agreed to the core parts of a peace deal  brokered by the Trump administration to end the now nearly four year long war. US officials have been meeting with both the Russians and Ukrainians in order to secure an end to the war. The plan was presented as a 28 point peace plan but upon revision by the Ukrainian side has been revised to a 19 point peace plan that no longer includes items such as amnesty regarding acts committed during the war. Ukraine as part of the deal has agreed not to increase the size of its military and will not join NATO under the updated plan.

However, the main criticism of the proposed plan is the legitimation of Russian control over captured Ukrainian territory in Dobas and does not have popular support from Ukraine or its European allies. European officials have called for the inclusion of a demilitarized zone and the inclusion of an article of defense for Ukraine similar to NATO’s article 5 which calls for mutual defense of all members. The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskky recently stated as part of whether he would accept succeeding territory to Russia, “Are we considering giving up any territory? We have no legal right, under Ukrainian law, under our constitution, under international law, and honestly, we have no moral right, either”. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Ukrainian troops must withdraw from Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region or Russia would seize it, rejecting any compromise over handing captured territory back to Ukraine and throwing a wrench in any prospects for peace that require concessions from the Russian side over captured land.

Escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro addresses a crowd flanked by Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello (left) and his wife Cilia Flores during a rally in Caracas, Jan. 23, 2025.

Pedro Rances Mattey/Anadolu/Getty 

Amid the buildup of US military forces in the Caribbean the Trump administration has now moved to designate Cartel de los Sols as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) with Nicolas Maduro as the head. The new designation by the Trump administration is thought to be another indication that the administration is seeking to conduct strikes inside of Venezuela. Secretary of War/Defense Pete Hegseth recently said the FTO designation “gives more tools” to the Defense Department and “gives options” to the President.

The “Cartel de Los Soles” or Cartel of the Suns is a term used to describe groups within Venezuela’s armed forces implicated in a wide range of criminal activities, including gasoline smuggling, illegal mining, drug smuggling and other corruption schemes. It has only recently been used to describe an official formal drug cartel. Labelling an organisation as a terrorist group gives US law enforcement and military agencies broader powers to target and dismantle it. Over the last few days the Trump administration has declared the skies over Venezuela closed and airlines have halted flights in and out of the country. The Maduro government has criticized the moves by the US and dismissed drug trafficking accusations. Venezuela’s foreign ministry stated that it absolutely rejected the designation, which it describes as a “new and ridiculous lie”. Last week for the first time the US seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela and President Trump has repeatedly raised the likelihood of US military intervention in Venezuela.

Deadly Floods in Asia

A drone view of an area hit by deadly flash floods following heavy rains in Palembayan, Agam regency, West Sumatra province, Indonesia [Willy Kurniawan/Reuters]

Catastrophic floods and landslides have hit multiple countries leaving over a thousand dead and hundreds more missing. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Thailand have all been affected, with over 800 people reported missing and more than 1,400 declared dead. In Indonesia, the worst-hit country, washed-out roads and collapsed bridges have left rescuers struggling to reach some of the hardest-hit areas in North and Western Sumatra. Though unlike middle income countries such as Indonesia or Thailand, Sri Lanka has been less able to react to the floods devastation. Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister, Harini Amarasuriya, met with diplomats from the region to appeal to them to support the country’s relief and reconstruction efforts. Countries such as India, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates have launched efforts to provide aid.

Three Typhoon storms hit the region in quick succession, Typhoon Koto which moved from the Philippines towards Vietnam, Cyclone Senyar, a rare storm that spun up in the narrow Strait of Malacca and lashed Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Thailand and Tropical Cyclone Ditwah, which crossed Sri Lanka and India’s south-east coast. All of these storms in unison cause the massive flooding and loss of life witnessed in recent days. Water temperatures are reported to be warmer than normal in the region, warmer ocean temperatures provide more energy for storms. Climate scientists expect the frequency and ferocity of these storms to be a new normal.

Congo-Rawanda peace deal

U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he hosts the signing ceremony of a peace deal with the President of Rwanda Paul Kagame (L) and the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Felix Tshisekedi (R) at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC, on Dec. 4, 2025. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds—AFP/Getty Images

Last week, President Donald Trump hailed a “historic” peace deal dubbed the “Washington Accords for Peace and Prosperity” between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. The deal brokered by the US and Qatar is a reaffirmed commitment to a US brokered deal signed in June which itself had failed to quell fighting. The two nations have had brewing conflicts over the past 30 years, but the violence sharply escalated in early 2025 after Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seized large parts of mineral-rich eastern DRC. The Trump administration has spearheaded talks between DR Congo and Rwanda, hoping that resolving the fighting would allow the US to increase investments in the resource rich region. However, even after the signing of the deal deadly clashes have marred efforts to begin implementing the terms of the agreement. The United States has accused Rwanda of fueling the instability and continued fighting. More than 400 civilians have been killed following the recent surge in fighting as the Rwanda-backed M23 armed group continues its offensive in South Kivu province in the eastern DRC.

Australia social media ban for minors

The teen social media ban will come into effect for some platforms today. (ABC News: Lindsay Dunbar)

Australia has become one of the first countries in the world to ban social media platforms from allowing children 16 and under from having accounts. While the law officially kicks in on December 10, Meta has already begun removing Instagram, Threads and Facebook accounts in order to comply with the new law. At the time of writing, the law applies to only ten major sites and platforms Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, X (formerly Twitter), YouTube, Reddit, Twitch, Kick and Threads. These companies, should they fail to comply with the removal of underaged accounts, would face fines of up to 50 million Australian dollars or $33 million USD.

The companies have been provided with a number of options for determining the age of users, the most common being an online scan of a users ID such as a drivers license. The Australian eSafety Commissioner will be sending the 10 platforms notices on Dec. 11 demanding information on the numbers of accounts removed. The Malaysian government has followed suit and said it would also ban social media accounts for children younger than 16 starting in 2026. Additionally the European Commission, France, Denmark, Greece, Romania and New Zealand have all also expressed interest in setting a minimum age for social media.

Foreign Policy Brief #225 | Reilly Fitzgerald | December 3, 2025

Policy Summary

Recently the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has been considering the idea of altering their policies on inclusion of transgendered athletes in the Olympic Games. Currently, and since 2004, the IOC’s rules have allowed for each nation’s federation to determine inclusivity of transgendered athletes (or not to include them). In the history of the Olympic Games, there has only ever been one transgender athlete compete and it was New Zealand’s Laurel Hubbard (Olympic weightlifting); and a transgender athlete has NEVER won a medal in the Olympic Games.

 The proposal is seeking a uniform policy that the IOC would apply across all Olympic competitions, taking power from each federation’s ability to determine who is, or is not, included in an Olympic delegation. The IOC has yet to decide on whether or not to move this policy forward; however, it is heavily reported across all media platforms that this policy will become real. It should be noted that this policy only seems to be applicable to women’s sports as it aims to target transgender athletes and potentially test athletes to confirm their gender as females.

This Brief describes the background and history of the challenging issue of testing for transgender athletes.

Background

Gender identity and sports has become a household topic both in the United States and abroad. In the United States local, state, and federal policymakers, including the President, have weighed in on the issues; some states have even passed legislation either targeting  or promoting inclusion in sports. Based on reporting from The Hill, in December 2024, the NCAA President Charlie Baker told the US Senate that there were ‘ less than 10 transgender student-athletes in the NCAA (out of over 500,000 student-athletes)..

The International Olympic Committee’s (IOC) Dr. Jane Thornton has spoken about some early research findings that are pointing toward a physical and competitive advantage for transgender athletes who transitioned after experiencing male puberty, even after suppressing testosterone in their bodies, according to The Ministry of Sport. This is furthering the desires of the IOC’s president, Kirsty Coventry, who is calling for a more uniform and blanket policy for the inclusion, or rejection, of transgender athletes in the Olympics. Currently, each nation’s sporting federations get to decide whether or not to include transgender athletes in their nation’s delegations. The IOC’s potential shift in policy would make it so that each federation would have to follow one policy and not have the freedom to include these athletes.

The policy shift is one that would encourage further testing and scrutiny of transgender athletes to confirm their gender. Some sporting federations are already conducting tests to confirm gender. The International Ski and Snowboard Federation (FIS) has been utilizing cheek swabs and blood testing to verify gender in their ski and snowboard competitions. The International Boxing Association (IBA) is also conducting testing of their own; however, there has been controversy regarding their practices. The IBA is a Russian-led association, and they were at the forefront of the Imane Khelif case. Khelif was disqualified from the 2023 World Championships after tests supposedly revealed XY chromosomes and higher levels of testosterone; however, the IOC cleared her to compete in the 2024 Paris Olympics, and these results were never officially revealed. The IBA did not reveal their testing methods. The timing of the disqualification came just a few days after Imane Khelif defeated Russian boxer Azelia Amineva, who had been undefeated before their fight. This is just one example of the use of gender confirming testing, or supposed testing, being used against athletes in unethical ways.

World Athletics, which oversees track and field events globally, instituted new rulings this summer ahead of the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo in September. The rulings required all female athletes to be subjected to genetic testing to confirm the presence of XY chromosomes, suggesting that it would detect whether an athlete was male or female genetically. It appears to be a ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ test; however, according to the BBC some countries have outlawed genetic testing for non-medical reasons. This type of law and ban in countries like France and Norway have meant that athletes from these countries must conduct these genetic tests abroad, and not within the borders of their own countries. This decision was sparked by champion athlete Caster Semenya’s gender being questioned due to her successes. She was determined to be an athlete who was born with “differences in sex development” (or DSD). Semenya always competes as a female due to externally having female reproductive organs, but also has internal testes.

This has been called into question in the past too, in 2016’s Olympics in Rio, all three podium finishers in the women’s 800m were athletes with DSD (Disorders of Sexual Development)conditions (and Semenya won gold at that race), according to the BBC.

History

The idea of gender confirmation testing in athletics is not a new concept. Women’s sports was brought into the Olympic Games in 1924. By the 1950s and 1960s, concerns regarding doping and gender fraud became more prevalent (oftentimes, these rumors were based on visual stereotypes). The 1936 Olympics in Berlin had several issues related to gender.  In the 100 meters, Helen Stephen defeated Stella Walsh (Stanisława Walasiewicz). Helen defeated Walsh in the 100 meter dash. A Polish publication accused Helen Stephens of being a man due to her impressive performance. Olympic officials carried out a physical examination to confirm Helen’s gender as a female, and it was confirmed, and she was awarded her medal. However, Stella Walsh was killed in the 1980s in a shooting in Ohio; and the autopsy revealed that she had a genetic condition with “ambiguous genitalia” known as mosaicism. Mosaicism is a condition that is created when a single egg is fertilized and creates an error when cells begin to divide. It should be stated that Walsh’s gender identity, that she lived with her entire life, was female.

After the 1936 Olympics, gender testing continued to evolve. In the 1960s and 1970s, physical exams were commonplace across all international sports; ironically, one competitor was disqualified, at the 1967 Pan-American Games in Winnipeg, for not having large enough breasts to be considered feminine. Physical exams were as invasive, at times, as they sound; they ranged from a hands-off examination, to a physically manipulative exam, and other methods all of which were humiliating and degrading. Chromosomal testing became quite popular after being introduced at the 1968 Winter Olympics in Grenoble, however, a false positive was not an uncommon occurrence. In a 2010 study  Vanessa Huggie  wrote “this test for chromosomal sex does not necessarily map on to physiological or phenotypic sex, which are the only kinds of sexual identity that confer a sporting advantage (and there are many confounding conditions, as people can be born with just one or three or more sex chromosomes …”

The organization that led the charge in the 1940s for more gender testing was the International Amateur Athletics Federation (IAAF). The IAAF was insistent on conducting more tests to sort out cases of accused gender fraud. By the 1980s, the IAAF dropped its usage of chromosomal testing and genetic tests for physical examinations. All testing was dropped by 1992 due to new urine tests for doping control, and the idea that minimal clothing in sports would help reveal one’s gender. By 1999, the IOC ended the requirement for any blanket testing policies, and the 2000 Olympics in Sidney were the first to be done since 1936 without gender confirmation testing.

The goal for the IOC now is to create a blanket gender testing policy  for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. President Trump has been one of the most ardent supporters of policies limiting or erasing the participation, of transgender athletes in sports at all levels; and has even called for more testing by the IOC ahead of the 2028 Games. President Trump has also made mention of Title IX , a federal law that prohibits sex-based discrimination, as his means of ‘protecting women in women’s sports’ while excluding and perhaps discriminating against transgender athletes.

 Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers around the country have fought to create more inclusionary policies. California, currently, allows transgender athletes to participate in sports through the high school level; and their policy is based on gender identity rather than genetics. The Olympics in LA in 2028 are going to be a contentious one to watch on this issue as the stage is being set for inclusive California to be hosting the Olympics which, under the IOC, may very well end the inclusionary practices that have been in place since 2000.

Conclusion

The American people also seem to have moved closer toward President Trump’s positioning on this issue with a recent Pew Research Center poll showing that 66% of Americans believe that transgender athletes ought to participate on sports teams, or in sporting divisions, that match the sex that was assigned to them  at birth. This positioning though seems to lack nuance that historical perspective may provide such as stories like Stella Walsh whose own gender was a bit more complicated than just “male” or “female.”

Though a decision has yet to be made, it does seem that the IOC is interested in repeating history by bringing back these gender confirmation tests – even though there are decades worth of false positives, mixed results, and conflicting bodies of evidence in the research literature. It seems unfair and hypocritical that this policy is only regarding women’s sports and does not appear to be an expectation on the men’s side of the Olympics. There is a lot that is going to be decided in 2026 as we move closer to Los Angeles 2028; but the IOC would be wise to review some of their own history and decisions.

Engagement Resources

1. Testing sex and gender in sports; reinventing, reimagining and reconstructing histories (Heggie, 2010) –https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3007680/#:~:text=For%20men%20there%20is%20no,the%20phrase%20’sex%20testing‘
2. Pew Research Polls – https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/02/26/americans-have-grown-more-supportive-of-restrictions-for-trans-people-in-recent-years/
3. Decision to Abolish Gender Testing at Sydney Olympics Supported By Yale Physician (Yale School of Medicine, 2000) – https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/decision-to-abolish-gender-testing-at-sydney-olympics-supported-by-yale-physician/