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2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series | Morgan Davidson | April 18, 2026

Minnesota has emerged as a central battleground in the broader political and cultural conflicts shaping the country in recent years. From the police killing of George Floyd in 2020 to renewed clashes over federal immigration enforcement and ICE activity, the state, particularly the Twin Cities, has become a focal point for activism, protest, and national political attention. These developments have helped shape both voter engagement and partisan dynamics heading into the 2026 election cycle.

In 2026, Minnesota will host a full slate of major elections, including an open U.S. Senate race and all eight of its U.S. House seats. Primary elections are scheduled for August 11th, followed by the general election on November 3rd.

At the statewide level, Minnesota remains reliably Democratic. Democrats currently hold both Senate seats and the governorship, and the state has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. However, the political landscape is more competitive down ballot. The state House is effectively split, reflecting a persistent urban–rural divide: the Twin Cities metro anchors Democratic strength, while greater Minnesota continues to provide a durable Republican base.

Despite this competitiveness in certain areas, early indicators suggest Democrats enter 2026 with structural advantages. Recent polling shows Democratic candidates leading in key statewide matchups, with voters citing concerns about threats to democracy and federal policy actions as major factors shaping their preferences. Additionally, ongoing tensions between state leaders and the Trump administration over immigration enforcement have further mobilized Democratic-aligned constituencies.

Taken together, Minnesota’s recent political climate, marked by high levels of civic engagement, national attention, and sustained partisan polarization, positions Democrats favorably heading into 2026. While Republicans retain strength in rural regions and could remain competitive in select districts, the broader environment suggests Democratic candidates are well-positioned to maintain, and potentially expand, their influence across the state.

Senate

Minnesota Senator Tina Smith (68) announced she will not seek re-election in 2026, citing personal reasons and a desire to spend more time with her family. Her retirement creates an open seat, an uncommon development in a state where Democratic incumbents typically hold a structural advantage.

Despite the absence of an incumbent, the seat is still expected to remain in Democratic hands. While an open seat can, under the right conditions, create a pickup opportunity for Republicans, Minnesota’s underlying partisan lean and recent electoral trends suggest Democrats remain favored in both the primary and general election.

On the Democratic side, the primary has largely consolidated around two major candidates: Peggy Flanagan and Angie Craig. Flanagan, the state’s current Lieutenant Governor, has consistently held an advantage in available polling. Early surveys in 2025 showed her with a substantial lead, at times exceeding 30 points, though more recent data suggests the race has tightened.

Recent polling presents a mixed but directionally consistent picture. Some surveys show Flanagan leading by double digits, including margins in the low teens, while others, particularly internal polls from the Craig campaign, indicate a narrower gap in the low single digits. Flanagan-aligned polling similarly reinforces her advantage, though with margins comparable to independent estimates. Taken together, the data suggests a race that has become more competitive over time but still leans clearly in Flanagan’s favor.

At this stage, the primary appears to be Flanagan’s to lose. While Craig has demonstrated viability and the ability to narrow the gap, she has not yet established consistent parity across polling. In the general election context, both candidates appear well-positioned. Available data indicates either Democrat would enter the race with a measurable advantage over a Republican challenger, reinforcing the broader expectation that the seat is likely to remain under Democratic control.

Peggy Flanagan enters the race as one of the most prominent Democratic figures in Minnesota, currently serving as the state’s Lieutenant Governor alongside Governor Tim Walz. First elected to the role in 2018, Flanagan has built a profile rooted in both executive governance and long-standing ties to progressive grassroots movements.

Flanagan’s background is central to her political identity. Raised by a single mother and relying on public assistance programs such as food stamps and Medicaid, she frequently frames her career as a product of government investment in working families. Before entering statewide office, she served in the Minnesota House of Representatives and worked as a community organizer, giving her both legislative and on-the-ground political experience.

Ideologically, Flanagan aligns with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Her campaign messaging emphasizes economic equity, expanding access to healthcare, and confronting systemic barriers facing working-class communities. She has also positioned herself as a strong critic of former President Donald Trump, framing the 2026 election as part of a broader fight over democratic institutions and federal policy direction.

In terms of political positioning, Flanagan benefits from a combination of statewide name recognition, executive experience, and support from key Democratic constituencies, particularly within the Democratic–Farmer–Labor (DFL) coalition. Her profile as a historic figure, she is the first Native American woman elected statewide in Minnesota, also contributes to her appeal among progressive and identity-based voting blocs.

Taken together, Flanagan’s candidacy is defined by a blend of personal narrative, progressive policy priorities, and institutional backing, making her a formidable contender in both the Democratic primary and the general election.

House

Turning to the House, Minnesota’s Democratic-held districts appear largely stable heading into 2026. Incumbents Kelly Morrison (MN-03), Betty McCollum (MN-04), and Ilhan Omar (MN-05) are all expected to retain their seats, with each representing safely Democratic districts anchored in the Twin Cities metro area.

Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District (MN-02), currently held by Angie Craig, presents a more nuanced situation. Craig’s decision to run for Senate creates an open seat in a district that has trended competitive in recent cycles. While Craig built her profile by flipping and holding a historically Republican-leaning district, her departure introduces some risk for Democrats. That said, given recent performance and the broader political environment, Democrats are still positioned as slight favorites to hold the seat, though it is likely to attract significant attention from both parties.

The most competitive and politically consequential districts remain in greater Minnesota. Minnesota’s 1st (MN-01), 6th (MN-06), 7th (MN-07), and 8th (MN-08) Congressional Districts,currently held by Republicans, represent the clearest opportunities for partisan competition. However, each presents structural challenges for Democrats, as these districts are anchored in more rural and conservative regions of the state.

Among Republican-held districts, Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District (MN-01) stands out as the most viable pickup opportunity for Democrats. While still leaning Republican, the district’s mix of rural and mid-sized population centers creates a more competitive environment than other GOP-held seats in the state. If national conditions break strongly in Democrats’ favor, MN-01 could emerge as a secondary battleground worth watching.

Jake Johnson (D) has emerged as the party’s only declared candidate, effectively clearing the primary field and allowing him to focus early on building name recognition and consolidating Democratic support. While Johnson does not yet enter the race with the same level of institutional backing or visibility as more established candidates, his uncontested path to the nomination provides a structural advantage in organizing and fundraising ahead of the general election.

Jake Johnson (Democrat) is a first-time candidate running to represent Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District. A high school math teacher in Rochester for nearly two decades, Johnson has built his career in public education, teaching a wide range of students from remedial math to advanced coursework.

Raised in southern Minnesota in a working-class family, Johnson frequently emphasizes his upbringing as the son of a garbage worker and a meter reader, as well as his reliance on public programs growing up. His background, combined with his experience as a teacher and union member, forms the foundation of a campaign focused on affordability, rural investment, and opposition to corporate influence in politics.

Johnson has also gained early institutional support within the Democratic–Farmer–Labor (DFL) Party, including a provisional endorsement that has helped consolidate the Democratic field behind his candidacy. As the only declared Democrat in the race, he enters the general election phase without a contested primary, allowing him to focus on organizing and fundraising earlier than a typical challenger.

For Johnson to mount a credible challenge, Democrats will need a favorable national environment, strong turnout in population centers within the district, and the ability to cut into Republican margins in more rural areas. While MN-01 remains Republican-leaning, it stands apart from other GOP-held districts in Minnesota as the most realistic pathway for a Democratic flip under the right conditions.

Taken together, Minnesota enters the 2026 cycle as a state where Democrats hold clear structural advantages but still face meaningful contests that will test the depth of that strength. From a Senate primary that appears to be consolidating around a frontrunner, to a House map defined more by defense than expansion, the overall landscape favors Democrats maintaining control across the ballot. That said, open seats and competitive districts, particularly in southern Minnesota, ensure that outcomes are not predetermined. In a midterm environment shaped by national dynamics and heightened political engagement within the state, Minnesota will serve less as a battleground for partisan control and more as a proving ground for how effectively Democrats can translate favorable conditions into sustained electoral success.

Recent Interviews:

• Peggy Flanagan at DNC- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b67b6KreswE
• Peggy Flanagan No Kings! Speech- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gZOVkpn1e0
• Angie Craig On The Record Interview- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaJ2bgVKefo

Engagement Resources:

• Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels: https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota
• Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness: https://www.cookpolitical.com/
• Minnesota Public Radio covers the political happenings within the state- https://www.mprnews.org/politics

2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series | Morgan Davidson

3/29/2026 

Massachusetts, or the Bay State, is a safe state for Democrats in 2026. While the state has a wonky history of electing a Republican Governor, all three major seats are held by Democrats- this includes the Governorship & the two Senate seats held by Elizabeth Warren & Ed Markey, who are both in their 13th year in their respective seats. Moving down the ballot, the remaining congressional breakdown is 9-0 in Democrats’ favor, with 8 of the 9 incumbents running for re-election. The primary elections are set for September 9th, followed by the general election on November 3.

Massachusetts remains one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, both in federal elections and across much of its political infrastructure. Rooted in a long tradition of liberal governance, strong public institutions, and highly engaged voters, the state has consistently favored Democratic candidates at the national level for decades.

At the federal level, Massachusetts has not supported a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan. The state’s electorate is heavily concentrated in urban and suburban regions such as Boston, Cambridge, and Worcester, where Democratic support is both deep and reliable. Several structural factors reinforce this advantage. Massachusetts has one of the highest levels of educational attainment in the country, a strong union presence in key sectors, and an economy anchored by healthcare, education, and technology; all of which tend to correlate with Democratic voting patterns. In addition, the state’s political culture places a premium on government competence, public investment, and social services, aligning closely with mainstream Democratic policy priorities.

That said, Massachusetts politics are not without internal competition. While Republicans are largely noncompetitive at the federal level, the Democratic Party itself encompasses a wide ideological range; from establishment incumbents to progressive challengers, as reflected in the state’s Senate race. As a result, the most meaningful electoral contests in Massachusetts often occur in Democratic primaries rather than general elections.

In short, Massachusetts is not a battleground state; it is a Democratic stronghold. The question in 2026 is not whether Democrats will win, but which Democrats will.

Senate

Ed Markey is up for re-election but is facing a challenge from Seth Moulton, the lone House incumbent not running for re-election. Markey, who is 80, has faced calls to retire & turn over the reins to a young upstart, Moulton, 47. Aside from age, Markey has done little to upset voters in the Bay State. The anxieties from prominent liberal figures staying in office for too long, including Biden & Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, resonate with democratic voters broadly, yet the polling shows Markey with a solid lead over Moulton.

While elder moments could lead voters to question Markey’s ability before September, the incumbent Senator has a firm grip on his seat heading into 2026. Senator Ed Markey has built a decades-long career rooted in progressive policy, consumer protection, and technological innovation. After serving 37 years in the U.S. House before his election to the Senate in 2013, Markey has established himself as a leading voice on climate change, clean energy, and telecommunications policy. He has authored or co-authored major legislation on fuel efficiency standards, net neutrality, and online privacy protections, while also playing a key role in landmark efforts such as the Waxman-Markey climate bill. His work consistently emphasizes both economic growth and consumer safeguards, particularly in emerging industries and energy markets.

Markey’s longevity in Massachusetts politics stems from his ability to align with the state’s priorities: strong environmental protections, investment in innovation, and a commitment to government oversight in the public interest. His reputation as a policy-driven legislator, combined with a deep connection to Massachusetts’ political identity, has made him a durable and trusted figure among voters. In a state that values both progressive leadership and institutional experience, Markey continues to represent a blend of forward-looking policy and established credibility that resonates with the electorate.

Representative Seth Moulton could emerge as a viable alternative if concerns about Senator Markey’s longevity begin to surface before the primary. A Marine Corps veteran and established member of Congress, Moulton brings a younger profile and a record that blends national security credentials with pragmatic Democratic policy positions. While Markey remains firmly ahead in polling and retains strong support across the state, Moulton’s appeal would likely rest on generational contrast and his ability to position himself as a next-generation leader for Massachusetts Democrats. That said, absent a significant shift in the race, his path remains narrow given Markey’s entrenched advantages.

House

Turning to the House, none of Massachusetts’ nine districts are expected to be competitive in the general election. However, the 6th Congressional District stands out as an open-seat contest, with Representative Seth Moulton pursuing a Senate bid.

In a crowded Democratic primary field, Dan Koh (41) has emerged as the early frontrunner, followed by John Beccia. With limited polling available, fundraising serves as one of the few measurable indicators of candidate strength. Koh and Beccia are the only candidates to surpass the seven-figure mark, giving them a clear advantage in terms of campaign infrastructure and visibility.

Koh’s profile is built on a combination of federal, local, and private-sector experience. During the Biden administration, he served in senior roles at the White House and as Chief of Staff at the Department of Labor, where he helped implement major initiatives related to infrastructure, clean energy, and worker protections. Earlier, as Chief of Staff to former Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, Koh was part of a period marked by economic growth, expanded housing access, and improved educational outcomes.

That breadth of experience, spanning Washington, Boston, and the private sector, gives Koh a well-rounded résumé that appeals to both establishment Democrats and voters focused on governance and delivery. Combined with strong fundraising networks and institutional backing, he enters the race with clear structural advantages. In a district where Democratic voters tend to prioritize competence, policy experience, and coalition-building, Koh is well positioned to consolidate support and secure the nomination.

His main primary opponent, Beccia, presents a contrasting profile centered on private-sector experience and a reform-oriented message. With a background in finance and entrepreneurship, Beccia has emphasized issues such as housing affordability, economic inequality, and government accountability. While that outsider framing may resonate with voters seeking a different approach, Massachusetts Democratic primaries have historically favored candidates with established public-sector experience and institutional ties. In that context, Beccia’s candidacy highlights a clear ideological and experiential contrast, but one that may ultimately reinforce Koh’s advantage as the more traditionally positioned contender.

While Koh is the early favorite, there remains significant time before the primary. Given the field’s size, the race could become more competitive as candidates consolidate support, making it a contest worth watching as it develops.

The remaining districts are held by incumbents who are expected to secure reelection barring any major political shift:

• District 1: Richard Neal
• District 2: Jim McGovern
• District 3: Lori Trahan
• District 4: Jake Auchincloss
• District 5: Katherine Clark
• District 7: Ayanna Pressley
• District 8: Stephen Lynch
• District 9: Bill Keating

Taken together, Massachusetts is unlikely to see any meaningful partisan competition in 2026, with Democrats positioned to retain full control of both the Senate and the House. National political conditions may further reinforce that advantage. Recent polling shows Donald Trump’s approval rating falling into the low 30s amid concerns over the Iran conflict, rising costs linked to tariffs, immigration enforcement controversies, and ongoing backlash surrounding the Epstein files. In a midterm environment where the president’s party often faces electoral headwinds, those dynamics could contribute to a broader Democratic overperformance. In a state as reliably blue as Massachusetts, that would likely translate into not competitive races but comfortable victories for Democratic candidates across the board.

Recent Interviews:

• Ed Markey at a No Kings! Rally- https://www.youtube.com/shorts/k49sITKLruA
• Seth Moulton on the Iran War- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0wCDAcerc0
• Dan Koh announcment video- https://www.facebook.com/danarriggkoh/videos/launching-our-campaign/1505134484025680/
• John Beccia announcement video- https://www.instagram.com/becciaforcongress/reel/DUUYWwVjtCH/?__d=1

Engagement Resources:

• Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels:
• Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness:
• The CommonWealth Beacon is a nonprofit outlet known for tracking political happenings in the Bay State.

2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series | Nate Iglehart | 4/14/2026

New York often sits in the average voter’s mind as a solid blue state, almost as a homogenous Democrat stronghold. With the recent election of Zohran Mamdani as the mayor of NYC, one wouldn’t be faulted for assuming that the rest of the state is skewed towards the left to some degree. Representatives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer lend credence to this impression.

Much of this is also no doubt due to the cultural significance and liberal disposition of New York City, but outside of the Big Apple, the story is a little more complicated. It is true that both senators from the state have been Democrats since 1998 and that the state has voted for a Democrat in the presidential election since 1988. But in the past few election cycles, there have been multiple house seats that have changed hands, and now the house delegation makeup is 19 Democrats and 7 Republicans.

Some of the more interesting races will likely actually be within the Democratic party as opposed to between the two parties. The issues facing the state extend beyond just NYC, and include extremely high rents and housing prices, crime and safety, education and budgetary woes, and general affordability. The solutions to these issues have split democrats regarding how to solve these issues. For example, Democrats are split between its pro-development wing, which wants to build more housing, and wings more focused on tenant-protection. Centrist elements of the party are also calling for more strict immigration and anti-crime initiatives, further splitting the party.

But there are still races that will be important for Democrats to defend from Republicans. Democrats’ biggest challenge isn’t just flipping seats, it is defending multiple very narrow wins from 2024 and handling a few races that face redistricting. At the end of the day, control of the U.S. House of Representatives may come down to one or two seats, and New York has a couple of races that may decide that control. The primaries will take place on  June 23, with the general election occurring on November 3rd.

Currently, the two Senators are Democrats Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand. Schumer is arguably one of the highest profile Democrats in the nation and he serves as the current Senate Minority Leader and previously the Senate Majority Leader. Gillibrand is slightly less well known, but serves on the Committee on Appropriations and the Committee on Armed Services. Neither of these two senators are up for election this cycle, and both remain relatively popular.

In the House, there are 19 Democrats and 7 Republicans. In ascending district order, the representatives are as follows: Republican Nicholas J. LaLota (NY-01), Republican Andrew Garbarino (NY-02), Democrat Tom Suozzi (NY-03), Democrat Laura Gillen (NY-04), Democrat Gregory Meeks (NY-05), Democrat Grace Meng (NY-06), Democrat Nydia Velazquez (NY-07), Democrat Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08), Democrat Yvette Clarke (NY-09), Democrat Daniel Goldman (NY-10), Republican Nicole Malliotakis (NY-11), Democrat Jerry Nadler (NY-12), Democrat Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14), Democrat Ritchie Torres (NY-15), Democrat George Latimer (NY-16), Republican Michael Lawler (NY-17), Democrat Pat Ryan, (NY-18), Democrat Josh Riley (NY-19), Democrat Paul Tonko (NY-20), Republican Elise Stefanik (NY-21), Democrat John Mannion (NY-22), Republican Nick Langworthy (NY-23), Republican Claudia Tenney (NY-24), Democrat Joseph Morelle (NY-25), and Democrat Timothy Kennedy (NY-26).

However, there are two incumbent Democrats who are not running for reelection this cycle in Velázquez in the 7th district and Nadler in the 12th. This means that Democrats will have to work a little harder in these races to counter the established Republican candidates who will see this as a rare opportunity. Republican Elise Stefanik in the 21st is also not running for reelection. Out of the 26 races, these are the Democratic names to keep an eye out for:

• District 1: Chris Gallant
• District 2: Patrick Halpin
• District 3: Tom Suozzi
• District 4: Laura Gillen
• District 5: Gregory Meeks
• District 6: Grace Meng
• District 7: Antonio Reynoso and Claire Valdez
• District 8: Hakeem Jeffries
• District 9: Yvette Clarke
• District 10: Dan Goldman and Brad Lander
• District 11:Troy McGhie
• District 12: Alex Bores, Jack Schlossberg, and Micah Lasher
• District 13: Adriano Espaillat
• District 14: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
• District 15: Ritchie Torres
• District 16: George Latimer
• District 17: Cait Conley and Beth Davidson
• District 18: Pat Ryan
• District 19: Josh Riley
• District 20: Paul Tonko
• District 21: Blake Gendebien and Dylan Hewitt
• District 22: John Mannion
• District 23: Aaron Gies
• District 24: Alissa Ellman
• District 25: Joseph Morelle
• District 26: Tim Kennedy

Most Competitive Districts for Democrats

There are roughly seven races that will be competitive for Democrats. The first, and the most competitive, will be in the 17th district located in the Hudson Valley. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler has raised a massive amount of money so far, sitting on $5,209,722 of donations. But even with this war chest, polls and analysts consider this race a true tossup. The biggest question is who in a crowded field of Democratic primary candidates will come out on top. These candidates’ backgrounds range from nonprofit executives to political reporters and cybersecurity and infrastructure experts. Cait Conley and Beth Davidson so far look like the frontrunners, with both having raised over $1 million and the former racking up endorsements from incumbents. The district has voted for Democrats in practically every statewide and federal election save for the 2022 governor race, and before Mike Lawler it was represented by a Democrat in the house since 1983. One key element in this district’s race will be the significant Jewish population, including conservative Hasidic communities in Rockland County. The war in Iran and Gaza will be potent political talking points and can swing this district slightly more towards the right, given many Democrats’ disillusionment with the U.S.-Israel relationship.

Another competitive race will be the 4th district, located in suburban Long Island. Currently represented by Democrat Laura Gillen, this district is the second wealthiest in New York and one of the wealthiest in the country. Similarly to the 17th district, this one leans slightly blue but by a smaller margin. Democrats only won it by 2.3 points in 2024, and before Gillen, the district was briefly held by a Republican. That candidate has yet to declare his campaign, but this race will still be somewhat tight. This race will be a must-hold for Democrats, but with Gillen’s centrist platform and solid focus on local issues, it is certainly possible.

The next competitive district will be the 19th district, a historically competitive seat that flips back and forth between parties. Incorporating the Catskills, Hudson Valley, and greater Capital District, it is largely a white and rural district represented currently by Democrat Josh Riley. Riley, a mix of progressive and centrist policies, won this district by 2.2 points in 2024, and while he is not wildly popular, he is popular enough and both well-funded and well-connected enough to be a key part of Democratic efforts to win the House. He shouldn’t lose this race with all of these factors, but the fact that Democratic planners are still focusing on this district means that they likely also have a little trepidation given how uncertain polls can be. Republicans will likely be looking to flip this seat back regardless of how the rest of New York’s races shake out.

One of those important targets will certainly be the chaotic 3rd district, representing parts of western Long Island. This is the wealthiest district in New York and the fourth wealthiest nationally, meaning that most progressive policies here will struggle. Nonetheless, the district leans towards Democrats, with Tom Suozzi having taken the seat after George Santos’ infamous tenure here. This mess of a political stint by Santos may have played a part in Democrats taking this seat, but it is far from certainty that this will remain blue. The 3rd district has had a litany of both Republican and Democrat representatives, but has been shifting blue lately. Importantly, in the 2024 election, this district voted for Trump while also electing a Democratic representative, making it one of the thirteen across the country that voted this way. Between its wealth and its hyper-urban nature, Suozzi has had to focus on cultivating an image of him being a common-sense Democrat focused on bipartisan solutions. It also didn’t hurt that he pushed for tax breaks and removing double taxation on homeowners. Thankfully for Democrats, this approach seems to have worked and Suozzi is fairly popular. But given how competitive this district has historically been, don’t be surprised if this one comes down to the wire.

From here, the races get slightly less competitive, but still are the biggest targets for upsets on both sides. In the 11th district, drama regarding the constitutionality of a redistricting effort and lawsuits have made a traditionally red district (currently the only one in metropolitan NYC) more open for a Democrat to win. Nicole Malliotakis, the incumbent Republican representative, is a very popular third-term representative and won the last election 64-36. Before her, however, the Staten Island district was represented by a Democrat, a pair of Republicans before that, and then only Democrats from 2013 all the way back to 1945. The district still leans red in both its registered voter numbers and recent voting results, but a lawsuit alleging voter discrimination against minority groups made its way all the way to the Supreme Court before being halted for this cycle, meaning that next cycle, this map may look vastly different. For now, it is still likely a slightly red seat, but with a blue wave big enough, Republicans may not be able to hold onto this district.

In the 1st district, Republican incumbent Nick LaLota, who was re-elected with 55.5% of the vote in 2024, may be at risk of an upset. On paper, this seat looks safe. Located on the eastern end and North Shore of Long Island, including the Hamptons, this district used to be a swing district in the 1990s before leaning more and more Republican since the 2010s. But a December 2025 poll found that 41% of voters supported LaLota while 38% supported the current leading Democratic candidate Chris Gallant. With 20% undecided, this seems to indicate this could be a closer race than previously anticipated, especially as polling aggregators have continually downgraded this seat over the past year from a solid Republican win to a likely Republican win. That being said, the fight is certainly uphill. LaLota has raised $2,404,492, around eight times as much as Gallant has. LaLota is also a two term representative, and represents a collection of fairly wealthy and middle-class towns that have historically voted red. If the winds continue to blow in Gallant’s direction, this could be an interesting race to watch.

Another potential upset race will be in the 21st district. Similarly to the 1st, this race sees incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik facing a surprisingly strong campaign from Democrat Blake Gendebien. A historically blue district, Stefanik has changed the game since she won this seat in 2015. But she’s set to shift the paradigm once more, now in the other direction. After having nearly been nominated by Trump to be the United States Ambassador to the United Nations in 2024, she decided in December 2025 that she would not run for reelection this cycle, leaving the race more open than expected. Republicans have rallied around businessman Anthony Constantino and he has raised over $5 million in a short time. But Democratic challenger and dairy farmer Blake Gendebien has also managed to raise an enormously surprising $4 million over the same time, making this a last minute addition to the watchlist. Don’t be fooled, the district still leans slightly red, but without an incumbent Republican, Gendebien may just be able to shock observers here.

Finally, there is one race that will not be important in the fight for control of the House, but will be very interesting to watch in order to see where internal Democratic politics is heading. In the 12th district, the district represented Midtown Manhattan and both the Upper East and West Sides. It is the most Democratic district in New York and the 9th most in the country, while also sitting high on the rankings when it comes to average wealth. As a result, the extremely crowded field has a lot of money poured into it, with four candidates raising at least $1 million already. There is a candidate focusing on big-tech regulation paired with progressive social issues, there is an establishment Democrat, there is a younger generation-focused candidate who also happens to be a grandson of John F. Kennedy, and then there is a center-left, anti-Trump coalition candidate. Each has backing and momentum, but seeing as incumbent  Jerry Nadler is not running for reelection, this will be an interesting test lab for the near future of Democratic politics in elite, urban districts.

Most Competitive New Jersey Democrats in 2026

Cait Conley: NY-17

Cait Conley, 39, is a former U.S. Army combat veteran and former director of counterterrorism for the National Security Council. A West Point graduate and Hudson Valley native, Conley is leveraging her military and public service career to push into politics. After deployments to Afghanistan and Iraq across her 16-year-long career, she is focusing her campaign on issues such as lowering costs, cleaning up corruption, affordable healthcare, infrastructure, and treating climate change as a national security issue. In a crowded race, Conley has managed to raise the most money and gather the most endorsements out of any remaining candidate.      $1,914,138 raised is nothing to scoff at, and when paired with a host of endorsements from current representatives and organizations, Conley has a lot of momentum going forwards. In particular, this district’s large Jewish population may actually play in Conley’s favor, despite this voting bloc often voting for conservatives. Conley’s experience in the Middle East and with counterterrorism may yield her some goodwill here, and in a district that has historically swung blue, she has a good chance of flipping this seat back.

Recent Interviews

Cait Conley on her NY District 17 House Campaign, Trump, Hegseth and the Illegal Iran War

Beth Davidson: NY-17

The other main contender in the 17th district is Beth Davidson, a 52-year-old Rockland County legislator. Davidson has deep roots in the district, having been a staunch activist when it comes to housing advocacy and administrative work. Between her time at the YMCA, her synagogue’s board, and the Environment Committee and Task Force on Water Resources Management, Davidson truly has experience in a lot of different facets of public service. Her platform is mainly focused on housing affordability, the cost of living, infrastructure, and access to things like healthcare and abortion rights. On the campaign front, she is a seasoned politician. She has ran and won multiple local level campaigns, and this time around she has raised an impressive $1,490,848 through the end of 2025. While she has less endorsements, the people of the district may resonate with her long career of local leadership more than Conley’s, and her Jewish background will help pull that conservative Hasidic community towards her campaign. While money still matters a lot in elections, and she is second on this front, local trust often is a great counter. In the end, the real question will be how much voters want their representative to play a part at the national level versus at the local level. And if they lean towards the local level, Davidson will have a lot more support and a better chance at winning the seat.

Recent Interviews:

Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson on Bid for Congress | PIX on Politics Daily

Laura Gillen: NY-04

Out in a quiet and suburban Long Island district, incumbent Laura Gillen, 56, looks out on an empty field of Republican candidates. And yet, poll aggregators only give this district a slight blue lean. Having won in 2024 by a 2.3 point margin, the former lawyer and law professor has been  a staunch centrist. She declined to congratulate Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral win, she broke ranks with Democrats to pass the Laken Riley Act, she voted to censure Democratic congressman Al Green for speaking during Donald Trump’s State of the Union Address, and she recently voted to pass extra funding to ICE. Her platform aims to focus on current Democratic priorities like the cost of living crisis and local investment towards healthcare and infrastructure, while also courting conservatives with more law enforcement-oriented policies and an explicit rejection of the Democratic Party’s left wing. While this might turn off younger voters, it will certainly work in a very wealthy district that swings between parties. Gillen certainly has money of her own; she’s raised $2,858,864 already and has likely not had to spend very much so far. She will certainly win the primary, but if Republicans run Anthony D’Esposito, the previous representative, she will have to work quite hard to hold the seat. Nonetheless, polls suggest she has a slight edge, and depending on whether a blue wave is explicitly anti-ICE or not, she could either ride it to victory or die by it due to her voting record.

Recent Interviews

Rep. Laura Gillen on government shutdown and more | The Point Full Interview 10.5.25

Josh Riley: NY-19

Josh Riley, 45, is the incumbent representative in this historically competitive district. He was able to flip the district with 51.1% of the vote in 2024, and now he is looking to build on this success. Coming from a working-class background in upstate New York, Riley attended Harvard Law School before taking roles in the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee, and as a counsel to former Senator Al Franken. This is his first time now in office, and he has pushed a slew of policies that straddle the line between progressive economic populism and more moderate social and immigration policies. Riley’s main focus, like many Democrats, has been on the cost of living, campaign finance reform, healthcare, and protecting democracy. With endorsements from many organizations and a whopping $3,129,176 raised through the end of 2025, Riley is in a solid position as the campaign ramps into high gear. But Republicans will try to target this seat, and while the main challenger hasn’t raised a ton of money yet, he is a state senator with endorsements from Trump, Speaker Johnson, and Representative Mike Lawler. This will be a close race based on how previous election cycles have gone, and if Republicans see an opportunity, Riley may need to work hard to fend off his opponent.

Tom Suozzi: NY-03

Tom Suozzi, 63, is a lifelong public servant. A native to this Long Island district, his father was the mayor of Glen Cove, as was Suozzi himself for a time. He was then elected to the House in 2016 and reelected in 2018 and 2020. In 2022, he attempted to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2022 but lost to incumbent governor Kathy Hochul. But in 2024, he managed to re-win this district 52-44, flipping this seat back for Democrats. In terms of policy, Suozzi has some commonalities with Riley and Gillen. He is focused primarily on affordability through reducing taxes, he strikes a moderate tone on immigration, he backs police funding and extending ACA tax credits, and bipartisanship and pushing back against the left wing of the party are both core to his political identity. All of this has thus far played well in this wealthy district, and there is no reason to believe that this won’t continue. Suozzi has immaculate name recognition and local connections in this district, he has raised almost 10 times the amount as his main Republican opponent (Suozzi is sitting on $3,246,484 through 2025), and after Santos’ tenure, the sense of stability that Suozzi has brought will likely earn him some goodwill from independent voters. Unless the expected blue wave in November doesn’t materialize, Suozzi should be expected to win this race.

Chris Gallant: NY-01

In contrast to Tom Suozzi’s career, the 36-year-old Chris Gallant has served the public in almost every way besides politics. A former New York Army National Guard who served in the Middle East, a Black Hawk helicopter pilot, a FAA air traffic controller and leader of his union, and a volunteer firefighter, Gallant aims to bring competence and accountability to this race and win a surprise victory against incumbent Republican Nick LaLota. In order to do this, Gallant has adopted a more moderate platform than many other Democrats in a bid to win voters in a district that went Trump’s way by 10 points. He hits the affordability and healthcare points like many other candidates, but he also aims to invest in coastal protection, something important for Long Island, and explicitly is running against what he calls “political infighting” and a lack of results from elites in DC. His efforts have yielded a lot of hope for Democrats, with a recent poll finding that 41% of voters supported LaLota while 38% supported Gallant. This is far closer than anticipated, but it will absolutely still be a tough fight for Gallant. LaLota has an incumbent and fundraising advantage in a red district. Additionally, Gallant’s identity as openly gay may or may not rub more conservative voters the wrong way. If LaLota’s popularity continues to slip, Gallant may just be able to upset him and win the seat, but both polling and betting odds are not particularly in his favor at the moment. Nonetheless, keep an eye on this race as we get closer to November.

Blake Gendebien

Blake Gendebien, 49, has made quite a stir in the race in the 21st district. A dairy farmer and lifelong resident of Lisbon, NY, he has thus far ran a campaign that may just become a model for how Democrats can win rural red districts. Besides being a dairy farmer, he is a school board member, the Vice Chair of a major regional dairy co-op, and founded a pediatric cancer nonprofit. This background of service and working-class upbringing has influenced his policy platform. Gendebien’s priorities are supporting farmers, protecting small businesses, and general rural economic development, but he also wants to push for anti-corruption measures, expanding healthcare access in rural areas, and working across the aisle to get things done without getting too much into the weeds ideologically. While none of this by itself would make much of a stir in one of the reddest NY seats, his massive fundraising efforts have turned heads. His campaign has raised $4,051,856, and is closing in on the $5,005,073 Republican candidate Anthony Constantino has raised. Constantino does not have the incumbent advantage, as the representative here, Elise Stefanik, is stepping down. This race may be Democrats’ best chance at retaking this seat since 2012, when they last controlled it. That being said, Gendebien will have a tough fight on his hands, as Republicans will almost certainly see this seat as a must-win in New York. While polling aggregators have increasingly pushed their predictions closer to a tight race, polls still lean slightly towards Constantino, so keep an eye out for data as the summer comes and goes.

Recent Interviews:

CBS6 speaks with NY-21 candidate Blake Gendebien

Alex Bores: NY-12

The first of three leading Democratic candidates in the Midtown Manhattan district, Alex Bores, 35, is an indicator for a potential future for the Democrats. Bores himself is a fifth-generation New Yorker who was a software engineer at Palantir before working in various fintech startup roles. He also was elected to the New York State Assembly in 2022, where he helped pass the AI regulation legislation (RAISE Act). With a master’s degree in computer science, he is focusing heavily on ai regulation and is best understood as a technocratic progressive. Bores is pushing for strong regulation and safety standards for AI companies, as well as countering deepfakes and job displacement. Outside of AI, Bores wants to make NYC more affordable through expanding the housing supply, he wants to strengthen democratic institutions and (interestingly) limit the influence of wealthy interests, and he strikes a pro-worker tone based on concerns about tech-driven inequality. The reason he is a frontrunner is because he has both racked up endorsements from state and federal legislators and he has raised the most in the race by a wide margin at $2,236,328. In fact, he raised $1,200,000 in the first 24 hours, but the vast majority of it was from outside of the district. With strong fundraising and a local base, Bores seems to be a favorite. But time will tell how his less locally-rooted donor base and his competition will hinder his ascent to the seat. Both of his rivals have strong campaigns, and if he manages to beat them, he could be a preview of what mainstream urban Democratic politics could be.

Recent Interviews:

Why Is The AI Industry Afraid Of Alex Bores? | Lever Time

Jack Schlossberg: NY-12

Next up in this race is Jack Schlossberg, the 33-year-old political commentator and author. The only grandson of President John F. Kennedy, Schlossberg represents the generational change Democrat in this race. He studied at Yale, Harvard Law School, and Harvard Business School before becoming a Vogue political correspondent and author. Without any traditional governing experience, Schlossberg’s campaign is focused on the aforementioned generational change, the cost of living, democracy and anti-corruption, and climate and civic engagement efforts. This platform is one that hinges on a sense of idealism and renewed faith in politics, and Schlossberg has leaned into this by vowing not to take corporate PAC or super PAC money. Despite this, he still has managed to raise $1,117,588 with a lot of grassroots donations. All of this has led to Schlossberg actually leading in the race according to multiple polls. While they all highlight large undecided blocs, the polls show a 7 to 10 point lead for Schlossberg as of February. With massive name recognition and a strong social media presence appealing to local voters, he certainly has the “vibes” part of running a campaign down. What remains to be seen is whether his lack of a detailed policy platform and governing experience irks voters as the primary nears.

Recent Interviews:

Extended interview: Jack Schlossberg

Micah Lasher: NY-12

Micah Lasher, 44, is bringing political experience and establishment support to this race. He is a freshman New York State Assemblymember, but is also a former Director of Policy for Governor Kathy Hochul, Director of State Legislative Affairs for Michael Bloomberg, aide to incumbent Representative Jerrold Nadler, and former chief of staff in the NY Attorney General’s office. Throughout all of these positions, he has focused on housing reform, minimum wage increases, gun control, and abortion protections. All of these, plus additional focuses on the cost of living, abolishing ICE, and fighting Trump-era policies, make up his policy platform. Lasher also enjoys endorsements from many of his previous bosses and has the highest fundraising potential with Michael Bloomberg’s support. He already has the second-most raised at $1,374,760, and with deep governing experience, he will certainly appeal to older voters and more mainline Democrats. But without something to make him stand out besides his experience, this NYC district may just have gotten a taste of Zohran Mamdani’s politics and push for someone more progressive than Lasher. If this happens, Lasher may just end up being the control experiment for onlookers to measure this race by. But if this isn’t the case, Lasher stands in a strong position to win the race if this becomes a financial battle of attrition.

Recent Interviews:

Full interview with U.S. House candidate Micah Lasher | The Point 3.8.26

Engagement Resources:

• Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels:
  • United States House of Representatives elections in New York, 2026 – Ballotpedia
• Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness:
  • 2026 CPR House Race ratings | Cook Political Report
  • 2026 CPR Senate Race ratings | Cook Political Report
• The New York Times and City & State New York are both great local resources for coverage of elections and issues facing New York.

2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series | Nate Iglehart | 3/29/2026

After the 2024 election there was talk of New Jersey having become a swing state. For the first time since George H.W. Bush, a Republican president, had been within 5 points of taking the state (Trump still lost, however). Before then, almost every presidential election had gone blue by around 14 points. But looking deeper, there are some Republican strongholds within the state that had been, and continue to, gain ground in house and gubernatorial elections. That being said, since 2020 and especially since 2024, New Jersey may start swinging back towards the Democrats. There are a few districts which have recently had both Democratic and Republican representatives, and with a potential blue wave looming, there may be a couple seats that could help swing control of the house. The primary elections will be held June 2, 2026, with the general election taking place on November 3, 2026.

The issues facing New Jersey favor what many Democratic candidates have been focusing on across the country. Primarily, voters are concerned about affordability (in the form of property traces and the cost of living), healthcare, infrastructure, and a large state-level budget deficit. But New Jersey has some of the highest tax burdens, including a high top marginal personal income tax rate of just under 12%, meaning Republicans have the upper hand here. Democrats have controlled both houses of the New Jersey Congress since 2004, meaning the blame can fairly squarely fall on them in the eyes of many voters. A key dynamic will be just how important of an issue this becomes in the light of a host of other more pressing issues, and as other neighboring states like New York have persisted through high income taxes and even slightly raised the top marginal tax rates.

Currently, the two Senators are Democrats Andy Kim and Cory Booker, with only the latter up for election this cycle. Booker, first elected in a 2013 special election and then re-elected in 2014 and 2020, is running third full term in office and is likely to win. He is one of the most notable Democrats of late, having made many media appearances critical of the Trump administration and also still riding some name recognition from his 2020 presidential campaign. Booker currently serves on four committees: the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, the Committee on Foreign Relations, the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, and the Committee on the Judiciary. His platform has always centered on social justice, criminal reform, and healthcare & social policy, but this cycle he is leaning heavily on an economic platform focused on eliminating federal income taxes on the first $75,000 of income for many Americans, expanding tax credits, and raising taxes on the rich. WHen it comes to fundraising, there is no better than Booker. $30,106,071 has been donated to his campaign through the end of 2025, and when combined with his high popularity and his importance, Booker is all but assured to retain his seat.

In the House, there are eight Democrats, three Republicans, and one vacancy in the 11th district. In ascending order, the representatives are Democrat Donald Norcross, Republican Jeff Van Drew, Democrat Herb Conaway, Republican Chris Smith, Democrat Josh Gottheimer, Democrat Frank Pallone, Republican Thomas Kean Jr., Democrat Rob Menendez, Democrat Nellie Pou, Democrat LaMonica McIver, and Democrat Bonnie Watson Coleman. Out of the twelve races, these are the Democratic names to keep an eye out for:

• District 1: Donald Norcross
• District 2: Bayly Winder
• District 3: Herb Conaway
• District 4: John Blake and Rachel Peace
• District 5: Josh Gottheimer
• District 6: Frank Pallone
• District 7: Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Miachel Roth and Brian Varela
• District 8: Rob Menendez
• District 9: Nellie Pou
• District 10: LaMonica McIver
• District 11: Analilia Mejia
• District 12: Brad Cohen and Jay Vanigankar

Most Competitive Districts for Democrats

Most districts are safe in the hands of the incumbent parties largely because of both how the districts are drawn and how popular those incumbents are. However, there are four districts that will likely be “battlegrounds” in 2026.

The first is NJ-02, where Republican Jeff Van Drew is the incumbent. He was first elected as a Democrat in 2018, but announced the following year that he would be switching parties. The district is New Jersey’s largest geographically and encompasses Atlantic City. What makes this district unique is that it has shifted to the right ever since the 90s, and despite going Obama’s way in both elections, has voted for Republican candidates almost every statewide and federal election since. Van Drew, who was re-elected with 58.1% of the vote in 2024, is facing three main Democratic challengers. Additionally, Van Drew’s popularity in some polls has dropped down to 42%, with a plurality indicating that they would be open to a new representative. A candidate who embodies that “new blood” archetype might just be able to reverse the district’s rightward swing.

The next district to keep an eye on his NJ-07. The incumbent is Republican Thomas Kean Jr., who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2024, but he is facing a swatch of potential Democrat opponents who are well funded. In the Democratic primary are figures such as healthcare executive and former navy aviator Rebecca Bennett, former chief of staff for the Small Business Administration Michael Roth, former senior advisor to the U.S. Surgeon General Tina Shah, and former chair of the New Jersey Forward Party Brian Varela. This district has flip-flopped between Democrats and Republicans over the past several election cycles, and with a plurality of voters disapproving of Kean’s work thus far combined with such a narrow win in 2024, it is likely to flip again. With the northwestern district, which has become more ethnically diverse over time, being one of the most affluent congressional districts in the United States, Democrats may have to tweak their standard messaging to improve their odds here. But Kean has faced a lot of pressure due to his political closeness to Trump as well as a lot of virtual town halls instead of talking to voters in person. This will be the seat Democrats likely focus on the most.

The final district that Democrats will focus on differs from the previous two. NJ-09 will be a defensive battle, with incumbent Democrat Nellie Pou fighting to remain after being elected with only 50.8% of the vote in 2024. The district is entirely urban, stretching from Pompton lakes to northern Newark and the Hudson River-adjacent town of Cliffside Park. In the 2024 election, the district shifted dramatically to the right, voting by 1.1 points for Trump after having previously voted for Biden by 19 points. Pou still managed to win her election, but the winds were clearly shifting. That being said, much of the vote was driven by the district’s large Hispanic population, which truly helped in Trump’s 2024 election. Since then, it is highly likely that Trump has burned through any goodwill he may have had with this constituency due to his immigration policy and failure to address affordability. This seat will no doubt be close as Republican strategists see this as a district they can win back by labeling Pou as out of touch. Time will tell if a blue wave and good donor relations thus far will manage to keep Pou in office.

Most Competitive New Jersey Democrats in 2026

Bayly Winder: NJ-02

Bayly Winder, 33, is a former foreign affairs officer and Biden appointee who has branded himself as a bipartisan and pragmatic candidate. Those two facets are key to his plan for winning a district that leans slightly red. His policy focuses are centered around lowering the cost of living, protecting Medicaid and social services, anti-corruption and government reform, and a foreign policy that is in favor of foreign aid and free trade. His campaign has tried to be an antithesis to Van Drew’s by promising in-person town halls and more direct constituent engagement. Winder has also tried to pursue that “outsider” stance by criticizing both parties’ failures to address issues and corruption on both sides. He doesn’t quite have the laundry list of endorsements other candidates might, but in this race he has the most money, having raised $451,845 through 2025. On paper, this campaign seems pretty solid, but his connections to Biden’s administration will likely hurt him more than it will help him. His credentials and his bipartisan focus will definitely gain him ground, and he likely will win the primary, but in a general election Winder will have to work hard to earn the trust of the constituency.

Michael Roth: NJ-07

The first of a few candidates covered in this brief that will be running in this district, Michael Roth is a strong contender. Roth, who is in his mid-thirties, is a community investment expert who served briefly atop the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) under Joe Biden. His campaign is also focused on pragmatic center-left policies. Issues like making NJ more affordable, cutting middle-class taxes and increasing corporation taxes, increasing the housing supply and reforming zoning, and lowering energy costs through modernization all feature prominently in his platform. What makes Roth stand out is his experience at high levels of both the public and private world. It also doesn’t hurt that he has raised a respectable $610,278 so far and is a New Jersey native. But neither of those facts alone will win him the crowded primary, which is the main hurdle. It is important to note that in early March, members of the Summit Democratic municipal committee held a straw poll in the race in which Roth emerged as the winner. Yet it is early in the race, and there is still plenty of time for Roth to gain daylight between himself and the rest of the candidate pool or to flame out and be buried under the weight of many competing personalities.

Recent Interviews:

Michael Roth CD7 Screening

Brian Varela: NJ-07

Brian Varela, 36, is seeking to pull on the heartstrings of voters in this district. A first-generation American, Varela grew up in the working class and he emphasizes this “lived experience” narrative. After graduating from Kean University and UNC, he built a successful marketing company and later expanded into early education businesses. Varela has long been a Democratic organizer and tried to win the 2022 congressional primary here as a third-party candidate but now he is firmly a democrat. His policy focuses are on the cost of living, universal healthcare, childcare and family policies, pushing back against ICE, and acting as an outsider against political elites. Between his compelling personal narrative, business success, and outsider positioning combined with some increasingly popular progressive policies, Varela is looking to take advantage of Kean’s weaknesses and flip this seat. But without elected office experience and in a crowded field with candidates with similar positions, his personal narrative will have to do a lot of heavy lifting. So far, he has racked up endorsements from everyone including county Democratic chairs to organizations like Peace Action and the mayors of Sparta and Newark. He also has raised the second most by a Democrat in the race, riding high on      $1,759,731. While he may not be the favorite yet, his story and background pair well with his policies and the issues facing New Jersey today. As we approach the primary election, keep an eye out for Varela to make a challenge to the more establishment Democrats in this race.

Recent Interviews:

Brian Varela OneNJ7 Meeting July 2025

Rebecca Bennett: NJ-07

The favorite at the moment is probably Rebecca Bennett. Bennett, a Navy helicopter pilot and aircraft commander who served for over 15 years, is running a tight campaign that has raised an inordinate amount of money. Her $1,943,974 is the most in this race, and is surprising given her lack of government or political experience. Bennett also worked in healthcare startups and larger healthcare companies, and this is a major policy area of hers. She wants to expand access to care, lower costs, and improve patient outcomes, but the rest of her platform is more generic. She values national security, and wants to combat the rising cost of living, but her website is more vague about exactly how she wants to accomplish these. While this gives Bennett more flexibility down the line, she will need to eventually sort out these questions. She does have some policies regarding environmental protections and resilient infrastructure, as well as combating the influence of special interests, but her campaign is more profile than policy-based. What makes her the favorite is her ability to fundraise without connections and run as a pragmatic, electability-focused Democrat with military precision and a healthcare worker’s focus on outcomes. With Roth and Varela breathing down her neck, she is still a long way from being a shoe-in, but if she gains momentum she may be hard to stop from winning the primary.

Recent Interviews

Rebecca Bennett CD7 Screening

Nellie Pou: NJ-09

Nellie Pou, 69, is a well-known and long-serving New Jersey Democrat. Pou has one of the longest political resumes in NJ, starting as the Deputy Speaker of the NJ Assembly in 1997 before serving in the State Senate after 2012 and now in the U.S. House. Before those elections, she worked in the Paterson city government as a business administrator, youth program coordinator, and human services director. She was also the first Latina from New Jersey elected to Congress, a title that has and will win her some goodwill in her district. Pou has also positioned herself as a broad coalition-builder with appeal amongst moderates, something that can only help her in tight races like this. Her policies are grounded, focusing on healthcare and social services, expanding access to education and workforce development, social justice and immigrant protections, government funding for local programs, and infrastructure. That last area is important to Pou, as she serves on the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, as well as the Homeland Security Committee. By running a low-drama campaign, she forces voters to look at her resume and political success thus far, which is a solid move. She also has vast local fundraising networks and has raised $1,773,275, dwarfing her Republican counterparts. But with her slight win in 2024, this seat is still not safe. The district is trending more competitive, and her establishment stances don’t win her support amongst both Republicans and progressives. If Pou wants to hang on to her seat, she will need to make sure that her constituents are able to trust her to continue representing them well and by ensuring that her Republican counterparts are not just extensions of Trump but their own people. Unlike other districts, connections to Trump may not be as big of a hindrance for Republicans given voters here liked Trump. But regardless, a blue wave may just give Pou the space to breathe she needs to retain her seat.

Engagement Resources:

• Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels:
  • United States House of Representatives elections in New Jersey, 2026 – Ballotpedia
  • United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2026 – Ballotpedia
• Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness:
  • 2026 CPR House Race ratings | Cook Political Report
  • 2026 CPR Senate Race ratings | Cook Political Report
• The New Jersey Globe and the New Jersey Monitor are both great local resources for coverage of elections and issues facing New Jersey.