Don’t Expect Trump 2.0 to be Climate Friendly

Environment Policy #177 | By: Todd J. Broadman | January 10, 2025

Photo by Documerica on Unsplash

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POLICY SUMMARY

President-elect Trump is set to take office on January 6, 2025 and has promised to “frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill.” Although his stance towards climate change has not changed in any way from his debut tenure  in office, he has assembled a seasoned team of loyalists who seem to be  more adept at cutting through red tape to fast track his agenda to “slash energy costs.” This is the same Donald Trump who characterizes global warming as “one of the great scams of all time.” Among his anticipated initial actions will be to (again) withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. He is not expected to support any U.S. climate funding to developing nations under the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance at COP29. And even with Elon Musk on board as White House advisor, Trump asserts that EVs dampen job growth and wants to revive gas-guzzling manufacturing in Detroit.

In terms of energy production, the trend to burn less coal is being reexamined by industry. Coal use for energy production has been reduced 60% over the last two decades and is currently below 20% as a U.S. electricity energy source. Older coal plants slated for closure are now waiting to see how energy policy unfolds under the Trump administration. A spokesperson from Duke Energy, for example, announced their intent to “reexamine plans to burn less coal in Indiana if the Trump administration rescinds power plant emission rules.”

As the federal government is expected to claw-back carbon use regulations, many will look to individual states to enforce and enact regulations limiting carbon use and incentivizing the transition to alternatives. Some states though, like North Carolina, are adapting their rules to allow for added fossil fuel use under the guise of increased demand that cannot be met with alternatives. Many states are  sympathetic to companies’ steady plea that customers need affordable and reliable energy (not necessarily clean energy). More ribbon-cuttings for newly constructed gas plants are on the way.

Surprising to some, the state of Texas has the largest installed base of renewable energy in the country – leading in both wind and solar. Driven by demand-side economics, the steady growth of wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources will continue to grow under Trump. Twenty-five states have laws in place that require a transition. In the state of New York, this is taking the form of a requirement that all newly constructed buildings under seven stories tall be all-electric. California is incentivizing the use of heat pumps in commercial buildings throughout the state, and this is in line with their support for zero-emission vehicles. As the consumer price of EV automobiles is lowered, more will make the switch in spite of calls for more fracking from the White House.

Many environmental regulations will be sidestepped at every opportunity by the Trump administration under the banner of reducing government agency interference and effectively addressing the “climate change alarm industry.” This includes lowering restrictions on the transport of liquified natural gas (LNG) as well as safety protocols at chemical plants. Regulations that limit methane release in fracking operations will be removed. Again, the link between carbon concentrations in the air and extreme weather events and patterns will be uncoupled.

Trump’s blueprint for most of what will change along the beltway has been detailed in Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. The Project’s holy grail is the “dismantling of the unaccountable Deep State.” Certain agencies are at the center of the wrecking ball, among them the Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA cannot be entirely gutted but entire sections such as the office tasked with reducing pollution in minority communities and the department for atmospheric research are to be eliminated.  The National Weather Service, air quality monitoring, and offices that support fisheries that fall under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are to be no more.

Behind these draconian policies are energy lobbyists such as The American Petroleum Institute (API), who stepped forward to bask in the moment: “Energy was on the ballot, and voters sent a clear signal that they want choices, not mandates, and an all-of-the-above approach that harnesses our nation’s resources and builds on the successes of his first term.” Robert Blue, CEO of Dominion Energy, is re-focused on reliability and sounds a more confident tone under Trump’s endorsement: “We don’t only have a climate law that we have to follow, we have a law that says we’re obligated to serve our customers, and we have a regulatory commission that says we’re obligated to provide reliable electricity.”

On the demand side, the need for electricity will significantly increase driven by large data centers. These new data centers are being built at a rapid clip in response to the use of artificial intelligence programs and the burgeoning AI industry driven by larger firms Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon. Utilities are relying on natural gas to meet this need. Up to 30% of demand will be met with gas powered plants; the connection between the increased reliance on AI and the reliance on carbon becomes apparent. Ben Cahill, an energy expert at University of Texas, points to these power-hungry new data centers being built when he says, “The scenarios for rapid decarbonization of the power sector seem less viable today than they were just six months ago.” ERCOT, the primary grid operator in Texas, says demand is on track to double by 2030. 

ANALYSIS

Globally, over half of carbon emissions come from three countries: China, U.S., and India. Others, including the EU (accounting for 8% of global emissions), look to these three for renewables transition leadership. The Trump model will act to dissuade others from making alternative energy investments, and will force other countries to take the lead in lessening dependence upon carbon-based energy. India is the leading importer of U.S. coal followed by Japan. While Trump will encourage greater use of coal domestically, receipts from exports will be supported by the new administration, and this position is consistent with Trump opting-out of international climate-related commitments. The recent United Nations report reflects this lack of global climate leadership: there is “virtually no chance” of meeting the international target to limit temperature increases.

To the extent that nuclear is considered clean-energy, Trump does support the increased use of nuclear energy. And outgoing President Joe Biden had vowed to eliminate all gaspower grid emissions by 2035. That goal though, was not actively pursued; currently, there are 220 new gas-burning power plants in various stages of development nationwide and most will come online before 2032 with each plant averaging a 30-year lifespan. Trump’s actions to de-regulate through new rules that weaken the EPA and other enforcement agencies effectively endorses these gas-fueled power plants.

Travis Fisher, Director of Energy and Environmental Policy at the Cato Institute, concludes that any environment shift will be led by the private sector while Trump is in office. “For those of us who care about our democracy as well as healthy communities and a safe and livable planet for our children,” he said “it will be up to the companies driving new demand — namely Big Tech — to decide just how green they want to be.” In line with that conclusion, when corporate net-zero goals threaten profit objectives, an increasingly common scenario amongst larger firms, decisions tend to follow the financial path of least resistance.

We also know that firms in the clean-energy sector of the economy depend upon government clean-energy policies and the grant funding that follows those policies. Those taxpayer dollars go directly into improving alternative energy technology. Private investors in this critical sector pivot act on what they see from federal and state backing, as took place with the private funding of companies that were IRA recipients. According to ImpactAlpha, venture capital “is just two degrees removed from at least one government grant.” Alongside Trump’s plan to cut the DOE’s Loan Programs Office, we can expect much of the critical private investment in renewables to shrink.

As COP29 in Azerbaijan wraps-up, developed, high carbon-emitting countries did reach an agreement to provide some degree of financing ($300 billion dollars in aid) to poorer nations who lack the resources to address the human suffering from warming and weather events. The exact amount of the U.S. contribution has not yet been determined, though a moot point as President-elect Trump is expected to rescind any and all amounts that get committed prior to him taking office. Without U.S. contributions, other countries will be reluctant to step-up funding.

Trump’s nominee to run the EP is Lee Zeldin whom Trump endorsed as someone who “will ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions that will be enacted in a way to unleash the power of American businesses.” Zeldin, who served as representative from New York for eight years, echoed the voice of a Trump loyalist: “We will restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs, and make the US the global leader of AI.” His voting record is not uniformly pro-business; some called him a moderate. On the one hand, he was one of 23 Republicans to support the PFAS Action Act which raised the EPA’s water quality standards, and on the other, in his bid for Governor of New York, he wanted to open fracking and add gas pipeline construction in the state.

While Donald Trump’s campaign appealed to an electorate who favor lower gas prices and high-paying energy sector (fracking) jobs, his policies will leave open added options for energy companies looking to reap greater profits, and those options will continue to include the use of renewable non-carbon sources. And even though federal dollars to alternative energy development will taper-off, states are expected to step-in where and when the economics tip in favor of solar, wind, and even nuclear (which Trump favors). If his planned tariffs apply to renewable technologies, domestic manufacturers could see a boost in revenue and expanded manufacturing. From a global leadership lens, the new administration is expected to abandon environmental ideals altogether, which may please China, India, and Russia in the short-term, yet translates into displeasing the planet Earth and its inhabitants over the longer-term.

Engagement Resources

• https://e360.yale.edu/  offers opinion, analysis, reporting, and debate on global environmental issues.
• https://www.science.org/ publishes the very best in research across the sciences, with articles that consistently rank among the most cited in the world.
• https://insideclimatenews.org/ publishes essential reporting, investigation, and analysis about the biggest crisis facing our planet.