Latest Jobs Posts

Foreign Policy Brief #41

 May 16th, 2018

Summary

The peace process with North Korea nearly derailed this week as the North Korean government canceled high level talks with South Korean leaders, just hours in advance. The future of the planned summit between President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un has also been placed in jeopardy as relations have regained hostility. History was made late last April, as South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un became the first leaders of their respective countries to cross the border since the Korean War began in the 1950s. This followed the two countries’ unified performances at the last winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea.

North Korea previously offered an olive branch, calling for the unified pursuit of the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. Stating they no longer have a need for nuclear weapons, the North Korean government invited foreign media to witness the dismantling of its main nuclear test site later this month. Three American prisoners were also released into the hands of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a recent visit. The government’s tone shifted this past week in response to several perceived slights at the hands of America and South Korea. Firstly, the US and South Korean military engaged in a number of annually held military drills on the border, an act which North Korea warned would be seen as an unnecessary provocation. Second, the Trump administration has been shifting the goalposts for what they expect of North Korea, in advance of the upcoming summit. What started as a unified goal of heading down the path of denuclearisation, beginning with the lifting of sanctions, has shifted to a more direct demand. National Security Advisor John Bolton has more recently made it clear that immediate denuclearisation is non-negotiable, and that sanction relief would come in time. Bolton has also made remarks suggesting that the Trump administration wishes to follow the “Libya model” when it comes to handling the threat of North Korea. This has alarmed North Korean leadership, who released a statement declaring that the “Precondition for denuclearisation is to put an end to the anti-DPRK hostile policy and nuclear threats and blackmail by the United States.” After being asked whether the US-North Korean summit would proceed as planned, President Trump responded “we will have to see”.

Analysis

What’s missing from much of the discussion surrounding the North Korean government is an honest analysis of their intents. Kim Jong-un’s administration, as brutal as they may be towards their own people, are not interested in conquest. They see themselves as one of the few true rogue nations in the world, somehow allowed to remain in power after the brutality of the Korean War, and want to hold onto that power for as long as possible. They have witnessed what has happened to other nations who have stood up against the United States and our allies, and have no interest in following that same path. Muammar Gaddafi agreed to surrender Libya’s nuclear weapons program in return for reduced hostility with the West, and was killed by NATO supported militias once he was disarmed. Saddam Hussein never built nuclear weapons, and was killed by the United States. North Korea has watched this happen, and has no interest in being next on the chopping block.

For this reason, negotiations need to include a certain amount of understanding for the paranoia North Korean leaders must be experiencing right now. They have been sufficiently cowed by the reckless aggression exhibited by President Trump and will mostly likely agree to a denuclearisation process if they can be convinced that we are authentically pursuing peace. Conducting military drills on their border referring to the “Libya model” will only have the opposite effect. On top of this, Trump’s decision to forgo diplomacy and break the historic peace agreement that is the Iran deal only serves to feed the fears of North Korea. The peace process will never succeed if it continued to be viewed as a military maneuver instead of a universal commitment to demilitarization.

Engagement Resources

• Learn More About the Korean Peace Movement Through Women Cross DMZ: Women Cross DMZ is a coalition of activists from around the world, including both North and South Korea, who are calling for a peaceful solution to the Korean conflict. They are organizing a protest on the DMZ later this month in partnership with the Nobel Women’s Initiative. You can learn more on their website.
• Donate to Peace Action: Peace Action is a network of peace activists committed to pressuring Congress into passing legislation supporting a foreign policy which respects human rights and non-violence. You can donate on their website.

This Brief was compiled by Colin Shanley. If you have comments or want to add the name of your organization to this Brief please contact Colin@usresistnews.org.

Foreign Policy Brief #40

May 15th, 2018

Summary

On May 8th, President Trump announced that sanctions would be reimposed on Iran, violating and thus jeopardizing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an integral part of the legacy of President Obama. The JCPOA, colloquially known as the Iran Deal, was formed as a solution by the US, China, France, Russia, Britain, Germany, and Iran to stem fears that Iran’s nuclear energy program could be used to build nuclear weapons. The deal, passed in 2015, removed heavy sanctions which had crushed the Iranian economy in the early 2010’s, in return for strong limits on the enrichment and stockpiling of Uranium and regular, independently conducted inspections of nuclear sites.

While Iran is widely considered to have been following the rules of the JCPOA, the Israeli government and elements within the Trump administration have insisted that the country is behaving duplicitously. President Trump considered Iran’s continued development of ballistic missiles as a violation of the spirit of the deal. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference on April 30th claiming that Iran engaged in the development of nuclear weapons between 1999 and 2003, and never disclosed this during the formation of the JCPOA. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed that wealth created under the deal “drove Iranian malign activity”

Now that the United States has withdrawn, the remaining six members of the deal are scrambling to keep it in place.  British Foreign secretary Boris Johnson stated after speaking with his French counterpart that they are determined to “conserve the essence” of the deal. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with Russian and Chinese officials looking to weigh their options. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran would increase Uranium enrichment if a solution was not found. President Trump has threatened to not only replace US sanctions on Iran, but also sanction “any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons”. Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton predicted that “the Europeans will see that it’s in their interests to come along with us”.

Military conflicts have sparked between Israel and Iran, potentially in response to Iran’s reduced diplomatic security. On April 9th, Israel attacked the T-4 Syrian Air Force base near Homs, Syria. Earlier this month, they struck again, this time on a cache of Iranian missiles north of Hama, Syria. On May 9th, immediately following US withdrawal from the Iran Deal, Iran launched 20 rockets towards Golan Heights, an area of Syria occupied by Israel since 1981.

Analysis

The United States has been pushing for war with Iran ever since the Islamist revolution of 1979 replaced the western-backed dictatorship of the Shah. Iran has been largely spurned internationally since, leading to a reduced access to western weapons and capital. For this reason, the nuclear program has been essential for Iran, allowing them to avoid squandering their most valuable export – oil – on their own energy needs. Elements within the US military industrial complex have used this to push for regime change at every turn, even when diplomacy is working, as it was under the JCPOA. The hypocrisy here is pervasive. The United States has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, and the White House announced an increase in that arsenal this week. Israel is one of only four countries in the world to refuse to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968, and is widely believed to have built nuclear weapons in secret. Also, the treaty actually requires nuclear armed states such as the US to help non-nuclear armed states such as Iran build peaceful nuclear energy programs.

It’s no coincidence that this aggressive attitude also serves the interests of our most powerful allies in the region. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel are noted rivals of Iran and have used humanitarian disasters in Syria and Yemen as proxy wars to push their influence, all with the support of the US. This contrasts with our European allies, who have made major economic investments in Iran since the raising of sanctions. French energy company Total signed a $5 billion deal for Iranian natural gas last year, and has no interest in losing that investment.

Trump’s desire to end the Iran deal seems embarrassingly rooted in his fascination with tarnishing every aspect of Obama’s legacy. He has not suggested any possible solution now that the deal is nearly destroyed. It seems that his goal is a dependable way to ensure that Iran has no way of building weapons, but that is exactly what Obama and our allies painstakingly ensured with the Iran Deal. Nevertheless, the war hawks of his administration are surely delighted that the diplomatic route is being steadily closed off. And they aren’t alone. Iranian hardliners have long pushed for a complete break of relations with the US, who they deem untrustworthy. The more moderate Iranian President Rouhani is still very popular, but he spent a large amount of political capital on the dealmaking process, and he might not be able to accomplish that a second time. Not only is breaking the deal potentially helping hand Iran to the hardliners, it jeopardizes any future deals we might make. Now the rest of the world knows that even if they spend months or years forming a treaty with the United States, it might only last until the next administration. This is not the right message to send with the North Korean summit coming up.

Engagement Resources

• Read Bernie Sander’s Op-Ed on the Danger Caused by Leaving the Iran Deal: Here is Sanders’ article, published by the Guardian last Monday. You can also watch his town hall discussion on the topic from the same day, hosted by The Intercept.
• Get Involved with Beyond the Bomb: Beyond the Bomb is an activist group looking to reduce the danger of nuclear war around the world. You can learn about the campaigns they are involved with on their website. 

This Brief was compiled by Colin Shanley. If you have comments or want to add the name of your organization to this Brief please contact Colin@usresistnews.org.

Brief #39, Foreign Policy

May 14th, 2018

Summary

After a year as the Director of the CIA, Mike Pompeo was confirmed by the Senate in a 57-42 vote as the new Secretary of State. While he eventually secured more votes than his predecessor Rex Tillerson, his path to the confirmation was originally not so assured.

As of mid-April, not a single Democrat or Independent on the  Senate Foreign Relations Committee was willing to go on the record as being in favor of his nomination. On the Republican side, Senator McCain was home battling cancer and Rand Paul had expressed opposition towards Pompeo. However, when Democratic Senators Joe Manchin, Joe Donnelly, and Heidi Heitkamp expressed eventual support for Pompeo, the dynamic shifted. Rand Paul’s vote was essential for the  Foreign Relations Committee to support Trump’s pick. Ultimately, Senator Paul changed his mind after being assured by the President that Pompeo regarded the Iraq War was a mistake and that US troops should leave Afghanistan. Pompeo secured the endorsement of the committee and Democratic Senators Bill Nelson, Claire McCaskill, and Doug Jones joined Manchin, Donnelly, and Heitkamp in crossing party lines to vote in favor of his confirmation.

Much of the controversy regarding the idea of Mike Pompeo operating as our nation’s top diplomat regards his positions on the War on Terror and Islam as a concept. Deviating from Tillerson’s view of the United States as a country competing with other economic rivals such as China and Russia, Pompeo seemingly views the US as a crusades-era force defending the West from Iran and “radical Islamic terror”. He has found himself adjacent to a number of groups and individuals who push the narrative that the Muslim world is attempting to subvert the entire social framework of the United States. Pompeo arranged for a Capitol Hill briefing for Act for America, a group which awarded him their National Security Eagle Award in 2016. Act for America is renowned for protesting the building of mosques, pushing for anti-Sharia law bills in state legislatures, and describing terrorism as the “purest form of Islam”. In a 2015 interview, Pompeo agreed with radio host Frank Gaffney that President Obama displayed “kind of an affinity for, if not the violent beheading and crucifixions and slaying of Christians and all that, but at least for the cause for which these guys are engaged in such activities.”

While in a 2017 confirmation hearing Pompeo backtracked on previous statements and spoke in opposition of the use of torture, he is on the record as being in support of the continued use of Guantanamo Bay as a prison camp.

Pompeo spent his time as Director of the CIA personally delivering daily intelligence briefs to President Trump, which  earned him a reputation as a close confidant. While he has previously disparaged Obama for being weak on Russia, he has repeatedly falsely claimed that the intelligence community had concluded that Russian interference had no impact on the 2016 election, despite the fact that the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment stated that they “did not make an assessment of the impact that Russian activities had on the outcome of the 2016 election”. In a confirmation hearing, he also refused to clearly state whether or not Trump had directed him to push the FBI into backing off the Russia investigation. With his willingness to serve Trump’s corrupt interests, his ruthless worldview, and his ample experience in Washington, Pompeo will be a dangerous asset for the President to extend his influence worldwide.

Engagement Resources

• Follow CREDO Action: CREDO Action is an activist organization which mobilizes support for progressive causes. Their petition asking the Senate to block Pompeo gained over 140,000 votes.
• Donate to the ACLU: The American Civil Liberties Union is one of the most renowned groups involved in defending the rights of citizens. They were steadfast in their opposition of Pompeo’s confirmation. You can donate on their website.

This Brief was compiled by Colin Shanley. If you have comments or want to add the name of your organization to this Brief please contact Colin@usresistnews.org.