Foreign Policy Brief #211 | Damian DeSola | July 25, 2025
On 19 July 2025, the Kenyan activist Boniface Mwangi was arrested under suspicion of “facilitation of terrorist activities during the June 25, 2025, protests.” He was released on 21 July on a KSh 1m personal bond ($7,723). He was charged not for terrorism, but for possession of two tear gas canisters and a single blank 7.62 bullet. This is not the first time Mwangi was arrested by Kenyan authorities, nor the first time a Kenyan journalist or human rights activist was arrested by federal authorities for similar reasons.
The Kenyan government is becoming increasingly authoritarian as popular protests against increasing costs of living, supposed government corruption, and remembrance of police brutality continually spring up. The President, William Ruto (elected 2022), whose policies much popular ire is focused, publicly ordered police to shoot live rounds at protesters’ legs, while also claiming the protests were “treasonous.” Why are these protests occurring, and why is the government so insecure about its policies? The answers are found in the past ten years of Kenyan financial mismanagement.
How Did We Get Here?
In the early 2010s, Kenya began to execute a strategy to improve its infrastructure in the hopes that these investments would show returns in economic productivity. To do so, Kenya sought foreign investment into projects like railroads and ports. This required in the financialization of Kenyan assets, for example, Kenya famously offered one of its major ports as collateral for a $3.2 billion loan from China to build a railway from Nairobi to Mombasa.
Over time, these investments accumulated into a massive increase in Kenyan public debt. In 2010, the Kenyan public debt to GDP ratio was 36.7%, in 2023 it peaked 73.1%. The annual interest payments on this debt alone cost over 1/3 of Kenya’s yearly revenues. Furthermore, infrastructure built with these investments shows little improvement in economic growth. The lack of returns on these large investments leaves the Kenyan economy financially insecure, with investing nations and organizations asking questions of Kenya’s future solvency.
Teetering at the Edge
To solve their fiscal troubles, the Kenyan government is engaging in austerity policies: put simply, reducing government spending and raising taxes to pay off outstanding debts. Unfortunately for the Kenyan government, and essentially all other nations implementing austerity measures, these policies cause rabid anti-government sentiment among the populace.
In 2024, President Ruto announced an International Monetary Fund-approved finance bill that proposed expansions and increases to various taxes. Over the following week, mass protests occurred across the country, culminating in the storming of Kenya’s Parliament. After the police failed to disperse crowds with tear gas and water cannons, they resorted to live gunfire, resulting in the deaths of five protesters. A day later, President Ruto withdrew the finance bill. This year, Ruto has introduced a new and altered finance bill that is currently being considered.
With poverty rates and cost of living already high, along with a people that already have little trust in government, the Kenyan government faces little public leeway with tax increases. The tax pool is already narrow due to Kenya’s crowding out of public debt, making it difficult for businesses to borrow, spend, and expand; the business environment has pushed out many existing businesses and prevents creation of new businesses. Without taxable industries and an impoverished population, raising money to pay off debt without foreign intervention is implausible. Hence, why the government deem controversial austerity bills that raise taxes absolutely necessary, and why its violent reaction to protestors is increasingly authoritarian.
What is Next?
While the stakes for Kenya’s economy seem dire, there is still potential for recovery. The government has succeeded in slowing expenditure, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% from 2023 to 2024. Meanwhile, Kenya is continuing work with the International Monetary Fundand the World Bank for advice and assistance in restructuring and repaying their debts. The government and its people still have a long way to go before escaping their debt trap. May their story be a lesson for other developing nations in the credible risks behind overreliance on loans from rich countries and the folly of spending beyond existing economic capacity.
Engagement Resources
- Learn about Kenya’s humanitarian crisis from the International Rescue Committee
- Donate to help Kenyan youth through Save the Children