Foreign Policy Brief #208 | Nicholas Gordon | July 7, 2025
The Iran nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is an accord reached between Iran and several world powers, including the United States, in 2015. Under its terms, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and open its weapons-making facilities to international inspections in exchange for sanctions relief worth billions of dollars. Since the United States’ withdrawal from JCPOA in 2018 under President Trump, Iran has expanded its nuclear program, breaching its commitments to the agreement, including resuming uranium enrichment and violating limits on nuclear materials. While the JCPOA remains legally valid, Iran’s violations of the agreement’s terms have thus far thwarted negotiations to revive it or to forge a new deal with the Trump administration. Foreign diplomacy analysts and Israeli officials have identified Trump’s backing out of the deal as a costly blunder that has fueled both Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and rising instability in the middle east.
Last week, Israel unleashed a blistering barrage of ballistic missiles and drones at Iran’s nuclear facilities in an attempt to derail their adversary from building atomic weapons.
Analysis
The negotiations of JCPOA with Iran were conducted by five permanent members of the UN Security Council —China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—and Germany, collectively known as the P5+1, as well as the European Union (EU). Without the Iran nuclear deal in place, the negotiating nations’ feared that Iran would take action to become a nuclear weapons state, which would in turn spur Israel to take preemptive military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, as it had in Iraq and Syria, plunging the region into a new crisis.
Those fears have now been realized with Israel’s recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Iran’s aggressive response. Thus far, the Israeli strikes have killed at least 224 people in Iran, including several top Iranian security officials, and more than 1,400 people have been injured, according to Iran’s health ministry. Iran’s retaliatory strikes have killed over 20 people in Israel, and injured nearly 600 people, according to a statement released by Israeli officials.
In light of the recent Israeli strikes, President Trump claims he gave Iran “chance after chance to make a deal,” ignoring the fact that he abandoned the landmark deal that was already in place with Iran. With his typical mix of self-congratulatory self-absolvement, Trump recently wrote on social media, “We remain committed to a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Issue!”
While there’s no direct evidence that the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal instigated Israel’s recent attack on Iran, numerous national security and regional experts have assessed the withdrawal as a reckless strategic mistake that undermined U.S. credibility, alienated the U.S. from its European allies, and increased the risks of war.
Trump’s erasing of the stalwart, decade-long diplomatic effort by the Obama and Bush Administrations to hinder Iran’s nuclear ambitions could fuel a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. For example, Saudi Arabian leader Mohammed bin Salman has stated his country’s intentions to obtain a nuclear weapon if Iran, their longstanding foe, builds one.
Iran has not agreed to a new deal with the Trump administration. Iranian officials state concerns about U.S. accountability on a new deal after Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA deal. Additional sticking points obstructing a new deal include: Iran asserting its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes; Iran demanding sanctions relief; and Iran refusing to make any further concessions on its missile program, which it says is integral to its system of defense.
Israeli military leaders lament the disastrous consequences of Trump exiting the Iran deal, notwithstanding Trump’s claims of the U.S. being Israel’s “number one ally by far.” As Israel and Iran continue to trade lethal strikes, a full-blown regional war is now within the realm of possibility. Israel’s attacks on Iran could trigger retaliation from several regional terrorist groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iranian-backed Houthis, all of whom have conducted attacks on Israeli targets in the past.
Meanwhile, like some deranged carnival barker weighing in on a geopolitical conflict that his actions very well could have ignited, Trump wrote on Truth Social, “…we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! I do a lot, and never get credit for anything, but that’s OK, the PEOPLE understand. MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!”
What the people understand is that a viable Iran nuclear deal was firmly in place before Trump ruined it without any foreseeable new deal in place.
Engagement Resources:
- The Council on Foreign Relations
- An nonpartisan, nonprofit organization founded in 1921 focused on U.S. foreign policy and international relations.
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- A research institution that analyzes “the dangerous consequences of an overly militarized American foreign policy and presents an alternative approach that promotes local ownership and resolution of local issues”
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
- Harvard Kennedy School’s hub of research, teaching, and training in international security and diplomacy, environmental and resource issues, and science and technology policy