Coal is not going away anytime soon; it remains the dominant source of the world’s electricity. 15% of U.S. electricity is fueled by coal. Globally, it is forecasted that carbon in the form of coal will still contribute 22% of power generation by 2040. In China and India, the reliance upon coal is significantly higher, almost double that of the U.S. and Europe. And for good reasons: it is the most economical, stable, and reliable power source.
The U.S. government under Donald Trump has distanced itself from all international obligations to reduce carbon sources of energy, emphasizing the economic benefits and need for self-reliance that coal (and petroleum, natural gas) meets. Solar and wind are rejected because they are “ugly as hell” and “unsightly garbage” according to President Trump. This characterization stands in contrast to what he refers to as “clean, beautiful coal.” Trump endorses the increased use of nuclear power as well.
At the policy level, the administration has rolled out an America First Energy Agenda. Thus far, this policy has translated into funding (nearly $725 million) the restoration of dilapidated communities that had once been economically coal-driven. Among its principal aims: to bring older, abandoned mines back into production. Led by the Department of the Interior, there are monies to reduce mining hazards and ensure clean water. All this because coal is viewed as a stable provider of “baseload” energy.
Coal, in the form of U.S. exports, is a major source of revenue and as such can be used as a political lever. In particular, China and India purchase large quantities of thermal coal from the U.S. India is an outsized buyer and is dependent on coal for energy intensive industries like brick making. In fact, more thermal coal is exported from the U.S. to Asia than to Europe. Over half of China’s energy demand is met with coal. Metallurgical coal is the raw material for coke, necessary for steel production. Both Egypt and Morocco also receive significant U.S. coal shipments.
As expected, the administration’s First Energy agenda is now the centerpiece of the Department of Energy activities. They are looking to maintain and grow coal powered plants across the country, even when the operators of those plants find it economically disadvantageous to keep them running. The department recently issued an “emergency order” to keep Michigan’s J.H. Campbell coal plant in operation after the plant owner’s intention to close it. That action has brought together eight regional utilities (Midcontinent Independent System Operators – MISO) in a legal fight against the DOE. “This expansive use of emergency powers sets a troubling precedent,” MISO insists, “enabling intervention in routine, state-approved planning decisions without an actual crisis and risks establishing its use to circumvent normal utility, RTO, and state processes, and likely exposes ratepayers to costs that should not be borne.” As with other Trump directives, this one stretches the boundaries of executive power, “eroding the statutory balance between federal and state authority.”
The electric utility industry is carefully treading the line between currying White House favor while fulfilling its obligations to rate payers. Georgia Power CEO Kim Greene’s remarks reflect these often-oppositional forces: “As our state continues to grow and thrive, the approval of this comprehensive plan helps to ensure we have the resources and programs we need to reliably and economically meet the future energy needs of our customers.” In her case, the “plan” referenced is forecasting greatly increased energy demand going forward, mainly due to regional data center growth, and will include the continued operation of two coal plants that had been earmarked for closure.
The energy demand side will accelerate because of AI. (The average AI request consumes roughly ten times the energy of a common google search request). Huge new data centers are being designed and built across the country. In northern Virginia, an epicenter of data center construction, the additional energy required is equivalent to what is needed to power 6 million new homes. Renewable energy sources cannot meet that requirement. That fact has made West Virginia and its coal lobby excited, as is Talen Energy Corporation who plan to continue operating a couple of coal plants outside of Baltimore to help ensure sufficient supply for data center demands. (These plants had been ordered to close by 2028 in a federal court action brought by Sierra Club).
Analysis
The complexities involved in curtailing coal are highlighted by Searles Valley Minerals, a mining and processing plant that produces the raw materials for the manufacture of wind turbine blades, solar panels, pesticides and other products. The production process requires super high temperatures, specifications that cannot currently be met with renewable energy sources. About one half of the world’s energy is used for the heat required in industrial manufacturing and residential heating.
And there are new coal mines to be opened. Wyoming had a ribbon-cutting for the Brook Mine Carbon Ore Rare Earth project on July 11th, their first new coal mine in five decades. Wyoming’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said all the right things: “This is just the beginning of an administration-wide effort to unleash the American mineral development needed to secure U.S. energy dominance, fuel economic growth, and safeguard our national security.” The state of Wyoming pitched-in $155 million for the project.
“I have a hard time understanding how people could think that solar panels are such a desecration of the land while mountaintop mining or drilling for natural gas and crude oil is not,” says Severin Borenstein, University of California at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business Energy Institute, reflecting the common-sense confusion of many. Communities do not want coal-fired power plants in their backyards, and not just for aesthetic reasons. While the Biden administration had set new carbon capture and storage regulations for coal-fired power plants, the EPA under Trump has proposed repealing all greenhouse gas emission standards (and carbon capture requirements) for carbon-based power plants.
Even though global dependence upon coal is expected to drop by 1.7 percent over the next year, coal burning in the U.S. will go up. Demand for energy is skyrocketing; in Virginia alone, there are nearly 300 data centers with Amazon’s $35 billion investment leading the growth trend. A new data center typically requires 50 times the power of a similarly sized office building. For the time being, renewables are not going to reliably support that demand.
If we add-in natural gas and oil as carbon sources, the total fossil fuel sources of energy in the U.S. are over 80%. Renewables would have to increase by 600% to replace our use of carbon. And this increase is just to replace carbon; we would still use hydropower and nuclear. America’s largest wind turbine farm is currently under construction off the Virginia coast and at 2,600 megawatts will provide the power equivalent to two nuclear reactors. Other large wind projects have been stalled or are on hold due to cost overruns and supply chain issues. Most wind energy investment is taking place in Europe.
Rather than curtail dirty coal, investment is following federal policies to increase coal use with regulatory barriers coming down and leases on coal tracts going up. DOE is also investing in coal technology modernization, going so far as to invoke emergency powers to keep toxic, mothballed coal plants open for burning. Costs to utilities to keep those plants running though, are exceedingly high versus alternatives such as natural gas and will require federal or state monetary support.
Engagement Resources:
- U.S. White House: Executive Order, Unleashing American Energy: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/unleashing-american-energy/
- MIT Technology Review: https://www.technologyreview.com/
- Power Magazine: https://www.powermag.com/