It Is Not an Invasion: How Undocumented People Got Here, Where They Live, & Why They Stay
Immigration Policy Brief #145 | Morgan Davidson | June 25, 2025
According to estimates from Pew & the American Community Survey, there are between 10.5 & 11 million undocumented people living in the United States. For perspective, that’s fewer—by about 2 million—than the population of the L.A. metro area. On the one hand, that’s a large number; on the other, it’s far from an invasion in a country of 340 million people.
So, how did we get here? What has that number looked like over the last 20 years?
If you watch FOX, you probably believe most, if not all, of these people came into the country under Joe Biden. But the numbers don’t support that. The estimated 10.99 million in 2022 is only slightly higher than 10.51 million in 2020 & nearly identical to 10.49 million in 2005. Over the past 20 years, the undocumented population hasn’t dropped below 10 million & hasn’t exceeded 12 million.
The reason we don’t see massive swings is that most undocumented people have lived in the U.S. for over a decade. Contrary to what Donald Trump, Sean Hannity, Elon Musk & others claim, people are not coming to America in droves, radically shifting the population by the millions.
This population is the product of decades of economic shifts, foreign policy decisions, & a dysfunctional immigration system.
Analysis
America’s immigration system didn’t fall apart overnight; it’s been dysfunctional by design for decades. Three major laws helped shape today’s reality.
The 1965 Immigration & Nationality Act scrapped the old national origin quotas but introduced strict caps on immigration from the Western Hemisphere for the first time. That created long waitlists for countries like Mexico & those in Central America, a backlog that still exists.
The 1986 Immigration Reform & Control Act (IRCA), signed by Reagan, legalized nearly 3 million undocumented immigrants. It promised tougher enforcement in exchange, but that mostly meant increased border security, rather than real accountability for employers or reforms to the legal system. The undocumented population kept growing.
The 1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA) made the situation even more challenging. It expanded deportation grounds, imposed the 3-year & 10-year reentry bans, & laid the groundwork for today’s massive deportation system. It didn’t reduce undocumented immigration; it just made the system more punitive.
In short, these laws didn’t stop undocumented immigration. If anything, they locked in a status quo where people could come here to work, but not stay legally. But legal changes only explain part of the picture. Economic forces are the engine behind most migration. After NAFTA took effect in 1994, small-scale farmers in Mexico were unable to compete with U.S. agricultural imports. Many lost their livelihoods, triggering one of the largest waves of migration in modern history. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy was booming in sectors like construction, agriculture, hospitality, & elder care; all industries that rely heavily on low-wage labor with few protections.
Add in the massive wage gap between the U.S. & countries like Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, or El Salvador, & it’s not hard to see why people leave. For many, working an informal job in the U.S. still means earning five to ten times more than they would back home. When you add instability, violence, corruption, & climate disruptions into the mix, it’s not just an economic issue; it’s an existential one.
There’s also a persistent myth that undocumented immigrants all crossed the border illegally. In reality, roughly 40 to 50% of undocumented people came here legally & overstayed a visa. While border crossings have surged at certain moments, such as in the 1990s post-NAFTA boom or more recently in 2021, when asylum seekers arrived in large numbers from Central and South America. Those are waves, not the whole picture. Many of the people being labeled as “new arrivals” actually arrived years ago & have been here since, quietly living, working, paying taxes, & building families.
All of this explains why the number of undocumented immigrants has held relatively steady over the last 20 years. Despite constant political noise, most of these people aren’t “pouring in” recently; they’ve been here. They’re the product of decades of economic shifts, U.S. foreign policy, & an immigration system that can’t meet the moment.
Where people are & Where people came from
By the numbers, the top states with undocumented populations are California, Texas, Florida, New York, & New Jersey. That shouldn’t be surprising. These states offer a mix of large urban centers & sprawling agricultural or rural areas, places where undocumented immigrants can find work, whether in construction, food service, or farming.
Most undocumented people still originate from Mexico & the Northern Triangle countries: Guatemala, Honduras, & El Salvador. However, in recent years, there has also been a rise in migrants from South America, especially Venezuela, as well as from Asian countries such as China, India, the Philippines, Nepal, and Vietnam.
Some right-wing commentators have seized on the growing number of Asian migrants, particularly Chinese nationals, to stoke fears about national security threats. But the reality is far more familiar. Many of these migrants are fleeing authoritarian regimes, seeking political asylum, & often see the U.S. as a haven that aligns more with their values than the governments they’re fleeing.
In fact, these migrants are more likely to turn themselves in to Border Patrol agents, not sneak in, because they want to begin the asylum process through official channels. They’re not unlike the Cuban refugees who once fled Castro’s regime, looking to the U.S. for political safety & opportunity.
Why people stay & What keeps people here
As of 2021, the average undocumented immigrant has lived in the U.S. for over a decade, a fact that directly contradicts the narrative pushed by outlets like FOX or figures like Trump. These aren’t people who just arrived. Many have U.S.-born children, creating mixed-status families & deep community ties. That also makes them more likely to overstay visas, rather than risk leaving & being unable to return.
At the same time, militarization at the border has had an unintended consequence: it’s made undocumented immigrants more likely to stay permanently. Once someone makes it into the country, they’re less likely to leave, not because they don’t want to visit home, but because crossing back has become so dangerous & expensive. If they leave, they may not be able to return at all.
Crackdowns have also fed the rise of human smuggling networks. As enforcement has tightened, cartels & smugglers have stepped in to profit off desperation, charging migrants thousands of dollars for what they claim are safer crossings, though often, they’re anything but. The result is a system where fear, family, & policy traps keep people here in the shadows, not a wave of new arrivals, but a long-established population with nowhere else to go.
The policy problems don’t stop at the border. We’ve seen failed attempts at comprehensive immigration reform in 2007, 2013, & now 2024. Decades of gridlock in Congress have left us with a system built for a world that no longer exists, rooted in problems that date back to the 1960s, yet still shape the present.
Undocumented immigrants aren’t new, & they’re not going anywhere. They’re a long-standing, deeply rooted part of American society. They work, raise families, pay taxes, & contribute to their communities every day.
If we’re serious about fixing this, it’s going to take more than more agents or higher walls. It requires a full rethinking of legal migration, economic reality, & basic human dignity.
Engagement Resources
- Pew Research Center – What We Know About Unauthorized Immigrants Living in the U.S.
A concise, data-driven primer updated in July 2024 that breaks down the estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants in America.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/ - Bipartisan Policy Center’s Immigration Reform Proposals: Explore balanced approaches to immigration policy that prioritize security, economic growth, and humanitarian concerns.
https://bipartisanpolicy.org/topics/immigration/ - ACLU Know Your Rights: The ACLU outlines the rights of Immigrants in the U.S.
https://www.aclu.org/know-your-rights/immigrants-rights