2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series Brief #2 | Nate Iglehart | 11/29/2025
- Announced Alaska Democrat Senate Candidates: Ann Diener and Mary Peltola
- Announced Alaska Dem. House Candidates: Matt Schultz, and (potentially) Mary Peltola.
Announced Alaska House Candidates
There are two seats up for grabs this coming election season in Alaska: the first is Alaska’s single, at-large House of Representatives seat, and the second is the Senate seat of Republican Dan Sullivan. The current delegation consists of Republican Representative Nick Begich III, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, and Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski.
Alaska has long been a Republican stronghold at the federal level, and while that still remains the case, the grip that the Republican party has on the state has begun to wane over the past few election cycles. In 2000, Democrats only received 27.7% of the vote, but that number has risen to 43% and 41% in the 2020 and 2024 elections respectively. Anchorage’s legislature and mayor have both slowly shifted to the center, and with affordability being one of the key issues this election season, Democrats may have a rare opportunity to gain some ground. The potential expiration of ACA subsidies at the end of this year is also a main sticking point, and some polls suggest that Senator Dan Sullivan’s seat may be less secure than previously thought.
Alaska is an exceedingly rural state outside of Anchorage, and takes the title of least densely populated state. However, its population of roughly 733,391 people with a median age of 35.6 years makes it one of the youngest states in the nation. This dichotomy of rural life and a young population will be a test of the Democratic platform, which has often focused more on the latter than the former. It will also make the issues of affordability more prevalent, while the ACA subsidy issue may carry less weight. The primary will be held on August 18th, with the general election following on November 3.
Announced Senate Candidates
Anna Diener
Ann Diener, 52, seems to be the main candidate for Democrats in Alaska. She is a journalist, having worked for the newspaper sales executive at the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, and only arrived in Alaska in 2021. Without experience in governance, she relies on her background in media and her time working with Les Gara’s campaign for Governor in 2022, which ultimately lost. Diener’s platform prioritizes workers’ rights, infrastructure, housing, natural gas expansion, and foreign policy. While Alaska’s Senate races rarely draw many eyes, Democrats may see this seat as one with potential to flip, as polls show that Sen. Dan Sullivan is not particularly popular. Diener may not have name recognition or an extensive resume in government, but she may have just enough relatability, bipartisan policies, and political tailwind to take the general election as the sole Democratic candidate at the moment.
Platform Priorities
- Infrastructure: Building adequate roads, with a focus on improving the Dalton Highway and a full extension of the Alaska Railroad to Alberta, Canada.
- Housing: Focus on building and refurbishing housing, making use of the new proposed infrastructure projects.
- Agriculture and Tourism: Expanding the Alaska Grown program, which establishes farms and agriculture across the state. Also promoting tourism to the state.
- Energy: Expanding the use of LNG (natural gas) along with its pipelines and other sustainable mining operations. The focus here is on lowering energy costs for Alaska’s citizens, as well as an “all-in” approach on energy that seeks to make LNG, clean coal, and other mining pursuits as sustainable and affordable as possible.
Voter & Donor Support
- No data yet on available donor support, nor on Diener’s voter appeal in comparison to Sullivan.
Why She Might Win
- Sullivan isn’t a very popular opponent
- Trump’s endorsement of SUllivan could backfire if Trump’s popularity continues to fall
- New figures in politics often capitalize in chaotic times
- Energy policy that caters to Alaska’s strengths will be perceived as common sense
Why She Might Lose
- Alaska is still decently Republican-leaning, and while Sullivan isn’t particularly popular, incumbency carries with it some advantages in voters’ minds.
- Lack of true government experience could make Diener seem unqualified.
- Media presence is minimal, with mainly a campaign website, Facebook, and a handful of other social media accounts. Also has not done an interview yet.
Key Election Variables
- Sullivan’s sliding popularity and the nationwide perception of Republicans
- Energy and housing costs
- Extent to which dissuaded voters vote for a Democrat instead of Green or independent party candidates.
General Election Odds: Medium-low due to district partisanship, but opponent is not popular.
Primary Odds: Currently uncontested
Mary Peltola
Mary Peltola, 52, would be the other Democratic candidate for the seat, but she has yet to file to run as she navigates a lawsuit involving the death of her husband. She also may yet turn her eyes to the race for Alaska’s House of Representatives seat. Pelotla was the Alaskan Representative in the House from 2022 to 2025, after defeating Republican former Governor Sarah Palin and Republican Alaska Policy Forum board member Nick Begich III. Her win was one of many firsts, including first Alaska Native member of Congress, first woman to represent Alaska in the House of Representatives, and the first Democrat to serve as Alaska’s representative in the House since Nick Begich Sr. in 1972. If she were to run again, it’s likely that her platform would be similar to the one that she won her 2022 election with: infrastructure improvements, advocacy for Alaskan fisheries, and cooperation with the Alaska Native Communities. But without any indication that she will file for a run for the seat, it is unclear how much longer she can wait to decide if she runs for the Senate seat or for the House seat.
Platform Priorities
- Fishery Advocacy: She worked to ban predatory foreign trawlers to protect salmon and worked to revise the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act.
- Infrastructure Improvements: Her first term was marked by a $2 billion boon she helped secure from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act for Alaskan projects
- Aid to Native Communities: She addressed long-standing promises to Alaska Native communities, and sponsored the Native American Millennium Challenge Demonstration Act to assist remote communities with economic development.
Voter & Donor Support
- Voters and donors who are embedded in Alaska’s Democratic campaigns would know her name and know her ability to get things done.
- Her bipartisan streak may gain some independent votes, but her 2024 loss showed that Republicans and Independents disillusioned by Trump and MAGA would rather vote for a third party, and could under Alaska’s Ranked Choice Voting system.
Why She Might Win
- Name recognition and a history of service for Alaska already.
- A growing demographic shift towards the center may lend her additional support.
- Dan Sullivan is not particularly popular.
- Bipartisan stances could be a welcome sight in an election that will be extremely divisive.
Why She Might Lose
- Her refusal to start her campaign so far is costing her valuable money and time
- Voters already showed that they preferred Dan Sullivan over her in 2024.
- Alaska still remains a relatively red state.
Key Election Variables
- How popular Dan Sullivan is approaching election day.
- How late Peltola starts her campaign.
- Voter fatigue for Trump-style politics and Trump-endorsed politicians.
- The seriousness of the cost-of-living crisis, and who is blamed for it.
General Election Odds: Medium-low due to district partisanship, but opponent is not popular.
Primary Odds: High if she did run, but the later she declares, the lower her odds get.
Announced Alaska House Candidates
Matt Schultz
Matt Schultz, 53, is a progressive pastor with a decently strong online following, and he is taking his first stab at governance with this race to represent Alaska’s at-large district. As the pastor of Anchorage’s First Presbyterian Church, he has an extensive history of support for progressive policies and ideals, having spoken at Anchorage’s No Kings day rally while focusing on homelessness in Anchorage, food insecurity, and raising the minimum wage. The New York-born pastor moved to Alaska in 1997, and his work as a pastor has garnered him respect amongst Anchorage’s populace. While he has often denounced Trump, he wants to run a campaign that focuses on issues rather than people, with his key policy areas being the cost-of-living, protecting health care and medicaid, protecting LGBTQ+ rights, and growing the diversity of Alaska’s energy sector. With his name recognition alongside his progressive Christian identity, he stands out as a candidate who can reach parts of both parties while also having lived in Alaska for decades now. Both of these aspects may help him gain momentum, but that same progressive Christian identity could also backfire and make many Alaskans see him as a Democrat first.
Platform Priorities
- Healthcare: Safeguarding access to health care and clinics, cutting travel and wait times, and making medicine more affordable are all key elements of Schultz’s platform. He is also in favor of continued funding for providers like Planned Parenthood.
- Infrastructure and Energy: Schultz supports investment in infrastructure, including addressing issues at the Port of Alaska in Anchorage and exploring options for rail development. He also believes in a diversified energy sector in order to lower energy prices.
- Social Justice: His speeches at the No Kings protests go hand-in-hand with his historical support for the BLM movement and LGBTQ rights. He also has previously advocated for an ordinance banning conversion therapy for minors, and wants to fight the rise of Christian nationalism across the nation.
- Cost-Of-Living: On top of housing, Schultz says that one of the key reasons he began his campaign is the high cost of groceries, fuel, housing, and child care. He also opposes federal tax cuts for the wealthy and the cutting of social programs.
Voter & Donor Support
- There aren’t any figures regarding his fundraising yet, but his identity could draw attention from Democratic donors and voters who may see a chance to flip Alaska blue or support a more progressive brand of Christianity. He also has a good media presence, both in interviews and in speeches he’s given. Importantly, her has connections through his uncle, Tom Begich, who is running for governor as a Democrat and his other uncle, Mark Begich, is a Democratic former U.S. senator. But his lack of experience could also hinder support from all sides, and his opponent has already raised a decent war chest.
Why He Might Win
- Community service experience could go a long way in a rural state.
- Savvy media presence and his relative youth may shine, becoming an alternative to the status quo that is guided by a set of religious moral values.
- A growing demographic shift towards the center may lend him additional support.
- Dan Sullivan is not particularly popular.
Why He Might Lose
- Alaska is not a particularly religious state, so his pastor background might not carry enough weight.
- Lack of experience and proven track record could hinder voters’ opinions of his potential.
- Progressive social justice stance could alienate many voters more concerned with pocketbook issues, something that rang true in the 2024 elections.
- It is unclear how good Schultz is at fundraising, and his opponent has a headstart.
- Alaska still remains a relatively red state.
Key Election Variables
- How popular Dan Sullivan is approaching election day.
- Whether or not Peltola enters the race.
- Voter fatigue for Trump-style politics and Trump-endorsed politicians
- The seriousness of the cost-of-living crisis, and who is blamed for it.
General Election Odds: Medium-low due to district partisanship, but opponent is not popular.
Primary Odds: Medium-high, his identity is intriguing and his decorum could stand well against his opponents.
Recent Interviews:
15 minutes with Matt Schultz, new Democratic candidate for U.S. House
Mary Petola
Overall, Alaska may not be the most exciting race going up to the election, but Democratic campaign planners are actively eying developments as we inch towards the election. Shifting demographics, a rising cost-of-living, and some interesting candidates could mean Alaska regains Democratic representation. While the state won’t carry much weight in the electoral college, a Democratic win here would spell out the writing on the wall for the current Republican stronghold, and perhaps be a part of a larger blue wave in 2026.
Engagement Resources:
Ballotpedia – serves as an initial go to for candidates and races at all levels:
Alaska elections, 2026 – Ballotpedia