As we continue to look back at key races in swing states we return to Florida, where we initially looked at a potential upset race in district 16. Democrat Margaret Good was facing a large uphill battle against incumbent Vern Buchanan, who is well-known for being the fifth most wealthy member of the House. Good has been pursuing a grassroots campaign that hasn’t been able to stand up to the large financial backing of Buchanan. In addition to this, district 16 has been known as a Republican county, so it isn’t remarkably surprising to see Buchanan take a strong polling lead. We expect Buchanan to regain this seat but for Florida to go blue in the presidential race.
Back in Michigan, the senate race between Democrat Gary Peters and Republican John James is just about decided, with Peters taking a strong lead in the past several months. FiveThirtyEight says that Peters will most likely win, with their recent data suggesting that Peters would win 81% of the time. Michigan is likely to go blue this election cycle, which is just proven with Peters’ likely win. We also think Joe Biden will win Michigan, albeit by a slightly closer margin than the senate race. Polling data says that Biden has an 8 point lead in the state, but we expect this to shrink to about 5 on election day. Regardless, it seems as though Michigan is on track to continue their blue wave.
In Pennsylvania, the Presidency is the main focus, as no senate races are being contested this year. The Presidency is a toss-up in Pennsylvania, which was one of the key states of last election, and many experts expect mail-in voting to be a large factor. Several counties in the state are already experiencing backlogs of mail-in ballot requests. Governor Tom Wolf signed an executive order in June that extended no-excuse mail-in balloting through the presidential election, and clearly PA residents are a fan, with a large number of ballot requests coming in from around the state, especially in cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. We think that Biden will narrowly win PA, given his recent surge in the polls. Although Trump surprisingly took PA last election, we expect that Biden will hold onto his close lead and take the state.
Wisconsin is another state that, although not having a senate race, is a key state in the Presidential battle. Recent polling suggests that Biden should eke out a narrow victory, but Trump has been known to have large support in rural and suburban areas, which Wisconsin is full of. A poll from August, conducted by OnMessage Inc, had the candidates even. However, since then, many polls have been released that give Biden a narrow lead, including several with double digit leads for Biden. We think the race will be closer than that, but not by much, as we expect a 6-10 point win for Biden in the hotly contested battleground.
We will continue battleground coverage leading up to the election as we now face the most important senate and presidential race in years, given the recent vacancy on the Supreme Court. Here at USResistNews we will continue to follow all these races and more.