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Congressional Campaign Update

Congressional Campaign Updates is a new feature of USRESIST NEWS. Written by  reporter William Bourque.  The updates will help our readers follow key races in the House and Senate that are key to the ability of democrats to gain control of both houses of Congress.

 Brief # 10: An Update on House Races in Florida

Another tightening race in Florida is for the 16th district in the House, where upstart Margaret Good is slowly closing in on Vern Buchanan, the incumbent who is one of the richest members of congress.  Good wasn’t expected to be competitive in the race, but after the former-republican gained national support the race began to tighten.  Change Research, on behalf of the Good campaign, polled 527 likely voters several weeks ago.  The results showed Buchanan with a 3 point lead, which was within the margin of error for the data.  Good still has an uphill battle but had received a significant amount of recent funding from ActBlue, as well as garnering endorsements from national figures like Joe Biden and Barack Obama, as well as organizations like Emily’s List and the Tampa Bay Times.  As signs of a second wave of Covid begin to show up in Florida, Good may just get the push she needs for a close win in a district that is historically red.

 

In District 15 there is another tight race that could indicate how the state will fall in the Presidential election.  Incumbent Ross Spanos is finishing his first term in office but lost his primary to Scott Franklin, an insurance executive.  Franklin faces a tough competitor in Alan Cohn, a former television reporter who has run for the seat once before, in 2014.  Cohn was known for his work uncovering political corruption as a reporter and even won an Emmy for a story about a Vietnam War veteran.  Cohn is well-funded and has raised more money than his competitor, according to opensecrets. It is a tough uphill battle to win the district that is home to Lakeland and it’s metropolitan area, but Cohn may have the funding and campaign that could do it.  A poll from October 12th shows that Franklin only has a 3 point lead, which is within the margin of error for the dataset.  Cohn will rely on Franklin’s endorsement of President Trump to drag him down to win this race in a historically red district.

 

Florida is a close state in terms of House of Representatives, with 14 republicans and 13 democrats.  Matt Gaetz is considered one of Florida’s most important congresspeople, with many seeing him as a potential candidate for Senate next time a seat becomes available.  In Florida, both Senators are republican with Marco Rubio and former Governor Rick Scott representing the state.  The districts that are most likely to flip are 15 and 16, as discussed earlier in the brief.  There is potential for some other districts to flip, such as 18 and 19.  Debbie Wasserman Schultz is another important member of the House from Florida who will likely be re-elected, although she is seen as more of a moderate democrat.  Despite this, we expect Florida to be remain 14-13 with the republicans maintaining the advantage, although 15 and 16 both indicate some potential to be flipped, which could result in a 15-12 advantage for democrats.  We will have continuing coverage of the whole US and Florida as it winds down to election day.

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