The United States is currently in the throes of a political transformation, one being driven mostly by President Donald Trump and his allies in the Republican Party. However, there is a part of this transformation that revolves instead around the opposition Democratic Party.
While American politics has always been a two party-system, those two parties have often evolved and morphed into newer editions, either through assimilating smaller parties or through complete rebrands. Third-parties have long struggled to gain a foothold in the political sphere, both because of the electoral college and because of the sheer financial and cultural power of a two-party system.
The Democrats themselves used to be the Republican Party in terms of its platform, and before that it was known as the Whig Party. Today, as the Democratic Party of the last century grapples with its place in politics, there are a handful of contenders out there who might be able to take advantage of this instability and become the new main opposition party.
Analysis
Firstly, there are a lot of hurdles to an actual third party entering politics. Outside of the pushback from the mainstream parties, who wouldn’t want their voters siphoned away, the process of becoming a federally recognized party involves getting an enormous number of signatures from citizens as well as a huge financial backing. It would also require skilled lawyers to navigate the intentionally complicated and restrictive state-by-state laws regarding third-parties.
But logistics aside, and with a record-high 43% of Americans identifying as independents, who are the main contenders? Broadly speaking, they can be split into two categories: those to the right of Democrats, and those to the left. Those to the right have far more media attention and financial backing, so they include some names that might be familiar.
The ever-present Libertarians are still around, despite their popularity having peaked in the early 2000s. They might be the most dug-in party on this list, with a policy platform that focuses on reducing government influence as much as possible and focusing on personal freedoms, alongside laissez-faire capitalism.
Libertarians stand to gain ground for a couple of reasons. Firstly, they are ingrained in American politics simply by being around for over 50 years. Secondly, with Donald Trump’s government swinging its weight around, attacking independent institutions and academia, the party could become a haven for voters who want to swing the pendulum of government influence the other way.
On the other hand, many libertarians lean Republican, so they may end up simply migrating over to the Republican Party. Additionally, as Trump has shown, welfare cuts are generally unpopular in the United States, and a party that wants the smallest government possible may not be appealing to those who recently lost access to Medicare and Medicaid.
Another option is the America Party, founded and touted by billionaire Elon Musk after his falling-outwith Donald Trump. It is his attempt to find support amongst disillusioned Republicans and Independents who want to remain on the right-end of politics while not being Republican. However, Musk thus far has taken no steps to formally found the America Party, and it likely was a knee-jerk reaction to rejection from MAGA.
However, his super PAC, which has already given millions to republicans ahead of the midterms and in previous elections, is still active. Last year, it gave $200 million to help elect Trump, so in lieu of a formal party, Musk could use his immense wealth to forge the Republican Party to his interests. Alternatively, he could instead turn to the left and mold the Democratic Party instead, but polling suggests he’d find more success drawing from Republican voters.
There are a handful of other parties on the right, like Andrew Yang’s Forward Party, although it hasn’t been up to much since its 2022 founding. If the Democrats decided to shift to the right, and assimilate one of these parties, it would represent a historical shift in America’s Overton Window, which is the range of policies that a country is willing to accept. However, the sheer influence of MAGA and Donald Trump has left little room for parties that are right-of-center to gain ground.
What is more likely for the Democrats to do is undergo a transformation that looks left instead of right. The parties to the left of the Democrats do have a chance of taking their mantle, as there is popular support for their policies, from taxing the wealthy to implementing free or subsidized transportation and reducing military and police spending. Zohranm Mamdani’s popularity in the New York mayoral race is a prime example.
His back-up party, should he have lost the Democratic primary, would have been the Working Families Party. The WFP has been around since 1998, coalesced around pocketbook issues and labor unions in New York, and now has chapters in 21 states, including California. They have recently endorsed a wide array of state and local candidates across the country, and their strong economic message paired with union representation could help them reach across the aisle and garner support from the right as well.
Interestingly, the WFP has recently clashed with the DNC, with union leaders demanding change from the Democrats, to no avail yet. There have also been union leaders quitting their D.N.C. posts in recent months as well. Allegiance among union members to the Democrats is both split and increasingly unpopular, but it also grants them a door into the ballot boxes of Democratic voters, as in many cases WFP and Democratic candidates cross-endorse each other. The WFP candidates also can run as Democrats first, and wield the party’s substantial election apparatus to get campaign support.
Another party that follows a similar framework is the Democratic Socialists of America. An explicitly left-wing organization that backs policies slightly more to the left of the WFP, they already have many candidates running for and in office across the country. However, like the WFP, they lack substantial support from the entirety of America, and have yet to truly be a political force.
This is in large part because democratic socialism, while less extreme than both socialism and communism, is immediately a massive negative marketing factor in America. While it is very popular with young voters, it is very unpopular with the older voting blocs, representing a massive hurdle to widespread support. The historical weight of socialism is still widely seen as destabilizing and an unknown that is a touch too scary to vote for.
DSA candidates also run as and cross-endorse Democrats, using their system to their own campaign’s benefits. But the real question for both the WFP and the DSA still is hard to answer.
Should they stay running their candidates under Democrat banners, and try to wield the Democratic establishment’s significant fundraising and campaign support to get their candidates into office, at the expense of their own party’s recognition? Or do they go it alone, and leave the old guard behind to keep enough distance from a party that is increasingly unpopular?
At the moment, none of these parties truly pose a substantial threat to the Democrats. The DNC is still the sole opposition party by a huge margin. But if Democrats run into trouble in the midterms from the left instead of the right, and those third parties manage to get at least 5% of the popular vote, they would become eligible for federal funding.
This would give them a foothold in the political world and give voters a sense that this new party can, in-fact garner decent support. If that happens, then it may slowly begin siphoning support away from the Democrats until they fully recover from their 2024 election loss.
Engagement Resources
- Vote Smart is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization researching every official’s and candidate’s voting records and policy platforms.
- Run For Something is an organization focused on fostering young and progressive campaigns across the nation.
- The Working Families Party and the DSA are both left-wing organizations fielding candidates in a wide range of local elections.