Brief #5 | Morgan Davidson | 12/30/2025
Connecticut, known as the Constitution State, will feature five U.S. House races in 2026, with no U.S. Senate contests on the ballot. Both of the state’s U.S. Senators, Richard Blumenthal and Chris Murphy, are midway through their six-year terms, having last been elected in 2022 and 2024, respectively.
On the House side, Connecticut’s current Democratic delegation consists of:
- District 1: John Larson
- District 2: Joe Courtney
- District 3: Rosa DeLauro
- District 4: Jim Himes
- District 5: Jahana Hayes
All five Democratic incumbents are expected to seek reelection in 2026. Connecticut remains one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, with all seven members of its congressional delegation affiliated with the Democratic Party.
Looking district by district, each incumbent enters the cycle in a strong position. All five representatives benefit from the incumbency advantage, and none faced a truly competitive general election in 2024. The narrowest margin among them was approximately 53.4 percent, underscoring the relative safety of these seats even in less favorable electoral environments.
Heading into 2026, national conditions appear increasingly favorable for Democrats. Republicans are projected to underperform their 2024 vote share amid voter backlash to tariff-driven cost increases, broader inflationary pressures, and declining approval of the current presidential administration. Against that backdrop, Connecticut Democrats are well positioned to retain full control of the state’s House delegation, with few signs of serious general-election vulnerability.
Taken together, Connecticut’s five congressional districts reflect a state where Democratic strength is built through multiple, reinforcing coalitions rather than reliance on a single voter base. Urban centers such as Hartford and New Haven anchor the delegation through racially diverse, union-heavy, and progressive constituencies, while suburban and exurban districts in Fairfield County and northwestern Connecticut have shifted steadily toward Democrats amid broader trends among college-educated and professional voters. Even in the state’s more rural eastern and western regions, labor influence, defense-related employment, and demographic change have eroded traditional Republican advantages. As a result, each district enters the 2026 cycle with distinct local characteristics but a shared structural tilt that continues to favor Democratic candidates statewide. The primaries will take place on August 11th of 2026, followed by the General election on November 3rd.
District 1
John Larson:
Rep. Larson is the incumbent Democrat for CT 1. The former History teacher/football coach entered politics in the 80s & has been in his current seat for the past 27 years. As a senior member of Congress, Larson serves on the Ways and Means Committee and wields significant influence in the House. Over his career, Larson has played a central role in landmark legislation on healthcare, labor rights, gun safety, voting rights, climate policy, and Social Security reform, while delivering billions in federal funding to his district. Known as a consensus builder, he remains one of Connecticut’s most experienced and influential Democratic lawmakers.
Platform Priorities
- Social Security & seniors: Protecting and expanding Social Security benefits; lowering prescription drug costs through Medicare negotiation.
- Healthcare access: Defending and building on the Affordable Care Act; lowering out-of-pocket costs for working families.
- Labor & economic security: Strong support for unions, workplace protections, and middle-class wage growth.
- Gun violence prevention: Expanded background checks and federal gun safety reforms.
- Climate & clean energy: Investment in renewable energy, emissions reduction, and green manufacturing.
Voter & Donor Support
Larson’s base includes union households, seniors, public-sector workers, and communities of color in Greater Hartford. He benefits from deep institutional support within the Democratic Party, strong labor backing, and a long-established donor network tied to healthcare, education, and organized labor.
Why He Might Win
- Deep incumbency advantage with decades of constituent service.
- National influence through leadership on Ways and Means and Social Security.
- Strong alignment with district demographics and policy priorities.
Why He Might Lose
- Primary fatigue or generational change pressures.
- Voter desire for new leadership, though no serious challenger has emerged.
Key Election Variables
- Whether a credible Democratic primary challenger materializes.
- Senior voter turnout.
- National Democratic enthusiasm in a midterm cycle.
Electoral Odds:
General: Very low risk
Primary: Low risk, but non-zero due to tenure length
Those challenging Larson include Luke Bronin, Ruth Fortune, & Jillian Gilchrest. At one point, there were five total challengers, with one dropping out in December, underscoring the challenge of unseating Larson.
Luke Bronin
Luke Bronin is a former two-term mayor of Hartford, serving from 2016 to 2024, where he led the city through a period of fiscal stabilization, major housing investment, and the COVID-19 pandemic. As mayor, Bronin played a central role in averting municipal bankruptcy, expanding affordable housing, launching the nationally recognized Hartford Youth Service Corps, and prioritizing public safety. A Rhodes Scholar, he previously served as a Navy intelligence officer in Afghanistan on an anti-corruption task force and held senior roles in the Obama administration’s Treasury Department, including work on the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and efforts to combat terrorist financing. Earlier in his career, he served as General Counsel to former Governor Dannel Malloy, helping advance gun safety legislation, clean energy initiatives, and veteran homelessness reduction efforts.
Platform Priorities
- Cost of living relief: Lowering housing, healthcare, and energy costs for middle- and working-class families.
- Housing affordability: Federal investment in affordable housing supply and tenant protections.
- Climate action: Accelerated transition to clean energy and emissions reduction.
- Rule of law & anti-corruption: Protecting democratic institutions and accountability in government.
- Middle-class economic policy: Tax and financial reforms that limit advantages for the wealthiest households.
Voter & Donor Support
Bronin’s natural base includes Hartford-area Democrats, policy-oriented voters, younger professionals, and supporters drawn to executive experience and technocratic governance. His background in federal finance and municipal management positions him well with institutional donors, national Democratic networks, and reform-oriented contributors. However, he lacks the deep labor and senior-voter ties that have long anchored the district’s incumbent coalition.
Why He Might Win
- Executive leadership experience at both municipal and federal levels.
- Strong résumé on fiscal management, housing, and governance reform.
- Appeals to voters seeking generational change or a post-incumbent transition.
- Ability to frame the race around future-oriented leadership rather than seniority.
Why He Might Lose
- Challenging a deeply entrenched incumbent with decades of constituent relationships.
- Lower name recognition outside Greater Hartford.
- Potential skepticism from labor and older voters loyal to existing representation.
- Risk of the primary electorate prioritizing seniority and congressional influence.
Key Election Variables
- Whether Democratic primary voters prioritize experience and continuity versus renewal.
- Bronin’s ability to consolidate progressive, reform-minded, and younger voters.
- Fundraising performance relative to the incumbent.
- Turnout levels in Hartford versus surrounding suburban towns.
Electoral Odds
- Primary: Low to moderate – viable challenger, but uphill against a well-established incumbent.
- General: High – District 1 remains overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of the nominee.
Ruth Fortune
Ruth Fortune is an attorney, mother, and immigrant-rights advocate whose personal story anchors her candidacy for Congress. She immigrated to the United States as an undocumented child and later built a professional career in law, framing her journey as an example of upward mobility achieved through perseverance and public investment. Fortune is running on a message centered on expanding opportunity for working families, strengthening democratic institutions, and ensuring that constitutional rights are protected for all residents, regardless of background.
Platform Priorities
- Economic equity: An economy that works for working- and middle-class families, not just top earners.
- Public education: Investment in quality public schools and equitable access to educational opportunity.
- Immigration & civil rights: Protecting immigrant communities and defending constitutional freedoms.
- Democratic norms: Opposition to authoritarian governance and defense of democratic institutions.
- Social justice: Policies aimed at reducing systemic inequality and expanding opportunity.
Voter & Donor Support
Fortune’s natural base includes progressive activists, immigrant communities, younger voters, and Democrats motivated by lived-experience representation. Her support network is more grassroots-oriented, with strength among small-dollar donors and advocacy-driven organizations rather than institutional or corporate donors.
Why She Might Win
- Compelling personal narrative that resonates with voters seeking descriptive representation.
- Strong alignment with progressive values in urban parts of the district.
- Ability to mobilize grassroots enthusiasm in a low-turnout primary.
- Clear contrast with long-tenured incumbents on generational and experiential grounds.
Why She Might Lose
- Limited name recognition beyond activist and progressive circles.
- Fundraising disadvantages relative to both incumbents and better-connected challengers.
- Difficulty expanding appeal to older, labor-aligned, and institutional Democratic voters.
- Structural challenge of unseating an entrenched incumbent in a safe Democratic seat.
Key Election Variables
- Progressive turnout levels in Hartford and surrounding urban communities.
- Ability to convert grassroots enthusiasm into sustained field operations.
- Whether the primary electorate is motivated by change versus continuity.
- Fundraising viability through the early and mid stages of the campaign.
Electoral Odds
- Primary: Low — credible values-based challenge, but structurally disadvantaged.
- General: High — the district is safely Democratic regardless of nominee.
Jillian Gilchrest
Jillian Gilchrest is a four-term Connecticut State Representative, social worker, and mother who has built her political career around translating community needs into legislative outcomes. In the state legislature, she has focused on policies affecting working families, healthcare access, and reproductive rights, and currently serves as Chair of the Human Services Committee. Gilchrest’s campaign emphasizes a people-first approach to governance, rooted in direct constituent engagement and a rejection of special-interest influence.
Platform Priorities
- Reproductive freedom: Protecting and expanding access to abortion and reproductive healthcare.
- Healthcare affordability: Lowering healthcare costs and expanding access to care.
- Working families: Paid family and medical leave, childcare support, and economic security.
- Human services: Strengthening safety-net programs and social services.
- Progressive governance: Centering constituent voices in policymaking over corporate interests.
Voter & Donor Support
Gilchrest’s base includes progressive Democrats, women voters, healthcare and social-service professionals, and constituents familiar with her legislative work. She is well-positioned to attract support from advocacy organizations focused on reproductive rights and family policy, as well as small- to mid-level donors aligned with progressive causes. Her state-level visibility provides a stronger institutional foundation than that of first-time challengers, though it is still well short of incumbent-scale networks.
Why She Might Win
- Proven legislative record with tangible policy wins.
- Clear alignment with progressive priorities in an urban, Democratic district.
- Ability to consolidate voters seeking both experience and generational change.
- Strong credibility on healthcare and family-focused policy.
Why She Might Lose
- Competing against a long-tenured incumbent with deep district ties.
- Risk of progressive vote fragmentation among multiple challengers.
- Fundraising gap relative to the incumbent.
- Difficulty expanding name recognition beyond her state legislative base.
Key Election Variables
- Whether progressive challengers consolidate or split the anti-incumbent vote.
- Turnout among women, younger voters, and urban Democrats.
- Endorsements from major advocacy or labor organizations.
- Fundraising momentum early in the primary.
Electoral Odds
- Primary: Low to moderate- stronger than a purely grassroots challenger, but still uphill.
- General: High- the district is safely Democratic regardless of the nominee.
District 2 – Joe Courtney
Joe Courtney has represented Connecticut’s Second Congressional District since 2007 and is a senior member of the U.S. House with deep influence on defense, veterans, and workforce policy. He serves on the House Armed Services Committee and the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, and is the Ranking Member of the Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces. Courtney has played a central role in securing long-term investment in submarine production and naval infrastructure, supporting thousands of defense-sector jobs in eastern Connecticut and strengthening the region’s military presence. A longtime advocate for veterans, farmers, and working families, he previously served in the Connecticut General Assembly and is known for his bipartisan approach and sustained focus on constituent-driven economic and national security priorities.
Platform Priorities
- Veterans and military families, defense-sector employment.
- Labor protections and infrastructure investment.
- Healthcare access and rural economic development.
Voter & Donor Support
Courtney draws strong backing from labor unions, defense-industry workers tied to Electric Boat, veterans, and older voters across eastern Connecticut.
Why He Might Win
- Longstanding ties to working-class and defense communities.
- Consistent record on jobs and veterans’ issues.
Why He Might Lose
- The district remains more politically mixed than others.
- National Republican overperformance in rural areas.
Key Election Variables
- Turnout in New London and Windham Counties.
- National security and defense spending debates.
General: High but more contested. If Republicans have a shot it may be this district but national tides should favor the Dems & the incumbent here.
Primary: High- incumbency should seal this but the challenger is of quality.
Kyle Gauck
Kyle Gauck is an Army veteran, business-minded Democrat, and father running for Congress in Connecticut’s Second District. He enlisted in the U.S. Army in 2010 and served as a specialist with the 5th Special Forces Group, deploying to the Kuwait–Iraq border in 2013. Following his military service, Gauck built a professional background spanning aerospace defense, business, and creative industries, and is currently pursuing an MBA at the University of Connecticut. Living in eastern Connecticut with his wife and two daughters, Gauck frames his candidacy around service, integrity, and practical leadership rooted in both military experience and private-sector problem solving.
Platform Priorities
- Healthcare access: Protecting and expanding the ACA, Medicare, and Medicaid; lowering premiums and out-of-pocket costs; expanding telehealth and rural healthcare infrastructure.
- Veterans’ services: Fully funding the VA, streamlining claims, expanding mental health and suicide prevention services, and increasing housing and job-training support.
- Reproductive freedom & LGBTQ+ rights: Federal protection for abortion access, support for gender-affirming care, and passage of the Equality Act.
- Government accountability: Congressional term limits and a ban on stock trading by members of Congress.
- Rural investment: Broadband expansion, support for rural hospitals, and economic development across eastern Connecticut.
Voter & Donor Support
Gauck’s natural base includes veterans, younger voters, healthcare-focused Democrats, and reform-oriented constituents skeptical of career politicians. His campaign is positioned toward grassroots and small-dollar donors, with limited evidence of institutional or major-donor backing at this stage. His military background may resonate across partisan lines, particularly in veteran-heavy communities within the district.
Why He Might Win
- Military service provides credibility on national security and veterans’ issues.
- Clear reform message on healthcare, accountability, and term limits.
- Potential appeal to voters seeking outsider or nontraditional candidates.
- Ability to connect healthcare access to rural and working-class concerns.
Why He Might Lose
- Running against a well-established incumbent with deep district ties.
- Limited name recognition beyond early supporters.
- Fundraising and campaign infrastructure remain unproven.
- District’s Democratic electorate has historically favored experience and seniority.
Key Election Variables
- Veteran and rural voter turnout in eastern Connecticut.
- Gauck’s ability to translate grassroots enthusiasm into sustained fundraising.
- Whether accountability and reform messaging gains traction in a low-profile primary.
- Incumbent strength and absence of broader anti-incumbent sentiment.
Electoral Odds
- Primary: Low- credible message, but significant structural disadvantages vs an incumbent.
- General: High the district should remain Democratic regardless of nominee.
District 3
Rosa DeLauro
Rosa DeLauro has represented Connecticut’s Third Congressional District since 1991 and is one of the most senior and influential Democrats in the U.S. House. She serves as Ranking Member of the House Appropriations Committee and the Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education Appropriations Subcommittee, giving her direct oversight of federal investments in healthcare, education, labor, and biomedical research. Throughout her career, DeLauro has built a national reputation as a leading advocate for working families, championing higher wages, paid leave, child tax credits, food safety, and affordable healthcare while consistently opposing trade agreements that undermine U.S. jobs. A longtime leader within the Democratic caucus and a former executive director of EMILY’s List, a platform to elect pro-choice women to Congress, she remains a central figure in shaping progressive economic and social policy in Congress.
Platform Priorities
- Progressive economic policy and labor rights.
- Public health, food security, and education funding.
- Reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ protections.
Voter & Donor Support
Strong support from progressive voters, labor, healthcare advocates, academics, and New Haven’s diverse urban electorate.
Why She Might Win
- Deeply Democratic district.
- Longstanding progressive credibility.
- Strong name recognition and fundraising base.
Why She Might Lose
- Age and tenure could invite primary challenges.
Key Election Variables
- Progressive turnout.
- Potential generational primary challenger.
Electoral Odds
General: High
Primary: High
Damjan Denoble
Damjan Denoble is a civil rights and immigration attorney, entrepreneur, and father of three running as a Democratic challenger in Connecticut’s Third Congressional District. His family arrived in the United States as refugees from the former Yugoslavia, an experience he cites as foundational to his political identity and commitment to civil liberties and democratic institutions. After graduating during the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Denoble built a career spanning healthcare consulting, international policy work, and journalism, including freelance reporting for Nikkei Asia. Upon returning to the United States, he founded a law firm and the nonprofit FronteraTECH.org, where for more than a decade he has represented immigrant families and workers facing systemic abuse. Denoble frames his candidacy as a response to entrenched political power and argues that long-serving leadership has failed to meet the urgency of current economic, democratic, and environmental challenges.
Platform Priorities
- Universal healthcare: Treating healthcare as a guaranteed right, with expanded coverage and cost controls.
- Affordable housing: Large-scale public investment to address housing shortages and rising rents.
- Democratic reform: Challenging entrenched political power and promoting structural accountability.
- Civil rights & immigration: Strong protections for immigrants, workers, and due process.
- Climate & environmental protection: Aggressive action to protect regional and national environmental interests.
- Constitutional governance: Defending democratic institutions and countering authoritarian movements.
Voter & Donor Support
Denoble’s natural base includes progressive activists, civil rights advocates, immigrant communities, and voters dissatisfied with long-tenured incumbency. His background in nonprofit work and legal advocacy suggests strength among small-dollar donors and issue-driven supporters, while institutional party, labor, and large-donor backing remains uncertain at this stage.
Why He Might Win
- Distinct outsider narrative in a district dominated by long-term incumbency.
- Strong ideological clarity and willingness to challenge party orthodoxy.
- Appeal to voters seeking structural reform rather than incremental change.
- Ability to frame the race around urgency, democracy, and generational transition.
Why He Might Lose
- Running in one of the safest Democratic districts in the country.
- Challenging a nationally influential incumbent with deep institutional support.
- Messaging may resonate strongly with a narrow but intense electorate rather than the broader primary base.
- Limited evidence of a scalable fundraising or field operation.
Key Election Variables
- Progressive and anti-incumbent turnout in New Haven and surrounding communities.
- Whether voters prioritize seniority and committee power over reform-oriented messaging.
- Denoble’s ability to convert philosophical critique into concrete electoral organization.
- Presence or absence of additional challengers fragmenting reform-minded voters.
Electoral Odds
- Primary: Low- ideologically distinct but structurally disadvantaged.
- General: High- District 3 is safely Democratic regardless of nominee.
Andrew Rice
Andrew Rice is a first-time Democratic candidate, molecular biologist, and member of the Democratic Socialists of America running to challenge Rep. Rosa DeLauro in Connecticut’s Third Congressional District. A University of Connecticut graduate living in Milford, Rice left his job in the biotech sector to campaign full-time, arguing that his scientific work ultimately served corporate interests rather than the public good. He frames his candidacy as a generational and ideological challenge to long-serving Democratic leadership, particularly on healthcare and foreign policy.
Platform Priorities
- Medicare for All: Government-run single-payer healthcare.
- Foreign policy shift: Ending U.S. military aid to Israel amid the Gaza conflict.
- Labor reform: A 30-hour workweek.
- Housing policy: Seizing vacant homes held by private equity to expand housing supply.
- Anti-corporate politics: Reducing the influence of corporate money in Democratic policymaking.
Voter & Donor Support
Rice’s support is concentrated among younger left-wing activists, DSA-aligned voters, and issue-driven progressives dissatisfied with incremental reform. He relies primarily on grassroots enthusiasm and small-dollar donations. Institutional Democratic backing and major donor support are effectively nonexistent, and even the Connecticut DSA chapter has not committed to endorsing his campaign.
Why He Might Win
- Clear ideological contrast with the incumbent on healthcare and foreign policy.
- Appeal to a small but motivated segment of progressive voters.
- Ability to force debate on issues party leadership has avoided.
Why He Might Lose
- Running against a nationally respected, deeply entrenched incumbent.
- Minimal name recognition and limited campaign infrastructure.
- Lack of endorsements from major progressive organizations.
- District electorate broadly aligned with the incumbent’s record.
Key Election Variables
- Whether progressive dissatisfaction translates into measurable primary turnout.
- Rice’s ability to qualify for the primary ballot.
- Media attention generated by issue-based confrontations.
- Overall Democratic primary turnout in a safe district.
Electoral Odds
- Primary: Very low- primarily symbolic and issue-driven.
- General: High- District 3 is safely Democratic.
District 4 – Jim Himes
Jim Himes has represented Connecticut’s Fourth Congressional District since 2009 and is currently serving his ninth term in the U.S. House. He is the Ranking Member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and serves on the House Financial Services Committee, giving him a central role in national security oversight and economic policy. Raised by a single mother and shaped by years living abroad in Latin America, Himes brings an international perspective to Congress and has focused his legislative work on affordable housing, economic opportunity, and access to quality healthcare and education. Prior to Congress, he worked in finance and led nonprofit efforts to expand affordable, energy-efficient housing, experiences that continue to inform his policy approach and emphasis on pragmatic governance.
Platform Priorities
- Financial regulation and economic stability.
- Suburban cost-of-living concerns.
- National security and democratic institutions.
Voter & Donor Support
Strong backing from college-educated suburban voters, finance-sector donors, and Democratic professionals in Fairfield County.
Why He Might Win
- The district has shifted decisively Democratic.
- Strong alignment with suburban political trends.
Why He Might Lose
- No real reason. There are no primary challengers at this time & no Republican challenger.
Key Election Variables
- Suburban swing voter behavior.
General: High- only challenger is an Independent candidate at the time of writing
Primary: Uncontested
District 5
Jahana Hayes
Jahana Hayes has represented Connecticut’s Fifth Congressional District since 2019 and serves on the House Committee on Education and Workforce and the House Agriculture Committee, where she is Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Nutrition and Foreign Agriculture. A former public school teacher, Hayes built her career around expanding equitable access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunity, and has focused her legislative work on nutrition policy, labor, veterans’ issues, and gun violence prevention. First elected in 2018, she made history as the first African American woman to represent Connecticut in Congress, bringing a background in education, bipartisan lawmaking, and community advocacy to a diverse district spanning central and northwestern Connecticut.
Platform Priorities
- Education investment and teacher advocacy.
- Healthcare affordability.
- Economic opportunity in mixed urban-rural communities.
Voter & Donor Support
Hayes’s base includes educators, voters of color, and urban Democratic strongholds, with growing support among younger voters.
Why She Might Win
- Strong personal narrative and educational background.
- District trends increasingly Democratic.
Why She Might Lose
- One of the more competitive district in the state.
- Requires consistent turnout in urban cores.
Key Election Variables
- Democratic turnout in Waterbury and Danbury.
- Independent voter swing.
General: High- the state should remain solidly Democratic
Primary: Likely to be unchallenged
Challengers
Hayes has two challengers in Jackson Taddeo-Waite & Winter Solomita but neither have campaign sites, interviews, or any record of donations. Unlike other incumbents in the state, Hayes is young & has not invited the quality challengers members like Larson or Rosa DeLauro who are both over 75.
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go to for candidates & races at all levels: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Connecticut,_2026
- CT Mirror- The CT mirror is a go to resource on Connecticut Politics- https://ctmirror.org/
- Larson on re-election- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT6oYT9sal0&themeRefresh=1
- Luke Bronin on challenging Larson- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMPq-LaemI4
- Ruth Fortune Reel- https://www.facebook.com/RuthFortuneForCongress/videos/1558069945219157/
- Jillian Gilchrest- https://www.instagram.com/reel/DRxeZ2OEkOQ/
- DeLauro on the House floor speaking out against Trump- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFV-oC6pijw
- Damjan Denoble- https://www.youtube.com/shorts/F2GHTYOO_o4
- Damjan Denoble 2040 vision- https://www.instagram.com/reel/DMg0yG5MSoP/