Brief #6 | Ryan Dulaney | 1/2/2026
Senate Candidates Up for Election (Democratic Primary)
- John Hickenlooper
- Julie Gonzales
- Karen Breslin
- Brashad Hasley
- Anthony Zimpfer
House Candidates Up for Election (Democratic Primary)
- Diana DeGette
- Carter Hanson
- Melat Kiros
- Santiago Palomino
- Tiffany Rodgers
- Wanda James
- Joe Neguse
- Cinque Mason
- Kyle Doster
- Alex Kelloff
- Trisha Calvarese
- Eileen Laubacher
- John Padora Jr.
- Jenna Preston
- Zurit Horowitz
- Jessica Killin
- Justice Lord
- Joe Reagan
- Jamey Smith
- Michelle Tweed
- Matt Cavanaugh
- Jason Crow
- Dylan Shelby
- Brittany Pettersen
- Shannon Bird
- Manny Rutinel
- Daniel Hassler
- Larry Johnson
- Evan Munsing
- John Szemler
- Dave Young
There are ten congressional seats up for the 2026 election in Colorado. All of the state’s eight U.S. House of Representatives seats and one U.S. Senate seat. The Democratic Party currently holds four of the eight House seats and both U.S. Senate seats in a state that has trended Democratic of late.
Colorado’s political balance has shifted significantly in recent years. Once a battleground, the state is increasingly blue, especially in urban and suburban centers. Democrats have increased support in recent cycles, mostly driven by demographic changes and increased turnout in population centers. Republicans continue to outperform in rural and low population density regions, but their vote share has eroded in much of the state.
The state’s population of 5.8 million people is concentrated in metropolitan regions; with a substantial number of younger and college-educated voters who have increasingly backed the Democratic party. Issues such as affordability, healthcare, climate policy, and reproductive rights, are expected to shape the 2026 federal contests.
Colorado’s primary election is scheduled for June 30, with the general election on November 3.
Democratic Primary Candidates (House + Senate)
U.S. Senate
Seat Up for Election: John Hickenlooper (D-incumbent)
- Basic Info: Incumbent U.S. Senator John Hickenlooper, a former governor and Denver mayor, is seeking re-election in 2026.
- Challengers:
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Hickenlooper: Older and moderate Democrats, business community, established fundraising networks.
- Gonzales: Younger progressives, grassroots activists, labor and progressive coalition supporters.
Why he might win?
- Strong statewide name recognition, deep fundraising base, broad appeal across moderate Democratic voters.
Why he might lose?
- Primary challenge from progressive wing, potential voter desire for generational change.
Key election variables
- Primary turnout among progressive vs. moderate Democrats; fundraising gaps.
Chances of winning: High (Hickenlooper is a popular incumbent)
U.S. House — Democratic Primary Fields
CO-1
A safely Democratic district in Denver and surrounding communities.
- Diana DeGette – Incumbent U.S. Representative.
- Carter Hanson, Wanda James, Melat Kiros, Christopher Oldfield, Santiago Palomino, Tiffany Rodgers – Challengers seeking the Democratic nomination.
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Urban progressive coalition, long-time Democratic base; incumbency strength generally carries institutional support.
Why she might win?
- Long incumbency, fundraising infrastructure, established voter support.
Why she might lose?
- Primary challengers could appeal if Democratic base seeks fresh representation.
Key election variables
- Name recognition vs. appetite for change in a crowded primary.
Chances of winning: High
CO-2
A Democratic stronghold in Boulder and northern Front Range.
- Joe Neguse – Incumbent U.S. Representative.
- Cinque Mason – Primary challenger.
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Progressives, younger voters, university communities; strong donor support.
Why he might win?
Why he might lose?
- Low likelihood unless major shift or upset.
Key election variables
- Primary turnout; challenger viability.
Chances of winning: High
CO-3
A more competitive district but with Democratic primary candidates:
- Kyle Doster, Alex Kelloff – Democratic primary candidates.
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Emerging progressive and moderate supporters as field develops.
Why they might win?
- Broad appeal to emerging voters if message resonates.
Why they might lose?
- Republican incumbent advantage in general.
Key election variables
- General election competitiveness in a swing district.
Chances of winning: Moderate to Low
CO-4
A Republican-leaning district with Democratic primary candidates:
- Trisha Calvarese, Eileen Laubacher, John Padora Jr., Jenna Preston – Declared Democratic primary candidates.
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Democratic minority voters and activists; limited donor networks.
Why they might win?
- Exceptional national environment favoring Democrats.
Why they might lose?
- Strong Republican incumbent environment.
Key election variables
- District partisanship, turnout patterns.
Chances of winning: Low
CO-5
Democratic primary candidates include:
- Zurit Horowitz, Jessica Killin, Justice Lord, Joe Reagan, Jamey Smith, Michelle Tweed — Democratic candidates.
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Grassroots voters, suburban progressives.
Why they might win?
- If unified around key issues like affordability.
Why they might lose?
- Republican tilt of district.
Key election variables
- Candidate quality, turnout.
Chances of winning: Low
CO-6
- Jason Crow – Incumbent U.S. Representative.
- Dylan Shelby – Challenger.
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Broad suburban base, moderate donors.
Why he might win?
- Incumbency, fundraising.
Why he might lose?
- Challenger has minimal traction.
Key election variables
- General election environment; GOP strategy.
Chances of winning: High
CO-7
- Brittany Pettersen – Incumbent U.S. Representative.
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Suburban Democrats, women voters.
Why she might win?
- Incumbency in a Democratic-leaning district.
Why she might lose?
- Unlikely primary challenge upset.
Key election variables
- Turnout patterns in Denver metro.
Chances of winning: High
CO-8
Competitive open seat:
- Shannon Bird, Daniel Hassler, Larry Johnson, Evan Munsing, Manny Rutinel, John Szemler, Dave Young — Democratic primary candidates running to challenge incumbent GOP Rep. Gabe Evans.
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Diverse coalition of suburban and moderate voters; fundraising profiles vary.
Why they might win?
- Targeted DCCC interest in flipping the seat.
Why they might lose?
- GOP incumbent advantage and district structure.
Key election variables
- Suburban turnout; candidate consolidation.
Chances of winning: Moderate
Summary
Colorado’s 2026 election cycle includes eight Democratic U.S. House primaries and one Democratic U.S. Senate primary. The Senate race features a notable primary challenge to an incumbent, while House contests range from safe Democratic districts to competitive swing seats where Democrats see opportunities to expand representation. The outcomes will depend on candidate quality, turnout dynamics, and broader national political conditions