Democratic Primary Series Brief #8 | Morgan Davidson | 1/21/2026
The Aloha state will feature two House races but will be absent a headlining Senate race. Senior Senator Brian Schatz will be back up for re-election in 2028 & the Junior Senator Mazie Hirono will be back up in 2030. Overall, the state is solidly Democratic, with all four members of Congress under the Democratic banner. Further, at the state level, of the 51 state house members, only 9 are Republicans. That means the remaining 42 are Democrats since no Independent has a seat in the Hawaii State House. In the Hawaiian Senate, the breakdown is 3 Republicans to 22 Dems. Hawaii is a solidly blue state, & the real campaign or battle will be in the Democratic primaries.
Turning to the U.S. House, Hawaii’s current Democratic delegation consists of:
- District 1: Ed Case
- District 2: Jill Tokuda
Both incumbents had dominant elections in 2024, with Ed Case winning with 71.8% of the vote & Jill Tokuda winning with 66.5% of the vote & look to do the same. At the time of writing, Democrats have a national advantage in generic ballots, or ballots listing only the political party, not specific candidates. Per Verasight, respondents were asked, “If the 2026 general election were held today [January 2026], which party’s candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your local congressional district?” 51% of respondents side with the Dems, 43% to the GOP, & 6% were undecided. Among voters who reported greater interest in voting, these percentages change to 55% Dems & 42% Republicans, with advantages to Dems of 8% & 13%, respectively.
The current Trump regime in Washington continues to hemorrhage support with crises after crises, from Venezuela & the kidnapping of Maduro, the ICE shooting of Renee Good, to concerns over US involvement with Greenland. Each of these events, individually, has the Trump administration in hot water, & collectively has led to a decrease in support for Trump & the Republican party more broadly. These are issues heading into a midterm election, which tend to favor the party out of power, causing major issues for Republicans down ballot. That said, there is still a long time from today to election day for Republicans to gain ground, but that seems bleak with Trump’s actions since the start of the new year.
Back to Hawaii, where the primary will take place on August 8th, 2026, followed by the general election on November 3rd, 2026, both Democratic incumbents look poised to retain their seats. That said, Jill Tokuda in District 2 seems to have a stronger advantage over her District 1 counterpart, Ed Case.
District 2: Jill Tokuda
Jill Tokuda, as of writing, is running unopposed in her re-election bid for District 2’s U.S. House seat. There is still time for other Democrats to join the race, with the filing deadline being in June of this year; however, chances are slim that Tokuda will face a Democratic challenger. In theory, District 2 should be the harder race, as it represents the suburban areas of Honolulu & the smaller islands that are much more rural than O’ahu, but without a challenger, Tokuda should continue her dominance in the district.
Tokuda is a 49-year-old female incumbent in Hawaii’s second district. Tokuda has represented Hawaiʻi’s Second Congressional District in the U.S. House since 2023, serving the state’s rural & outer-island communities. Her family has called the district home for four generations after emigrating from Okinawa, with roots on Hawaiʻi Island, Maui, Kauaʻi, & Oʻahu. A product of Hawaiʻi’s public schools & the first in her family to attend college, Tokuda earned a degree in international relations from George Washington University before returning home to public service. She spent twelve years representing Windward Oʻahu in the Hawaiʻi State Senate, where she became one of the Legislature’s most trusted voices on fiscal & education policy, chairing committees including Ways & Means, Education, Labor, & Hawaiian Affairs. As budget chair, she oversaw the state’s $14 billion budget, expanded early childhood education & school-based health services, & secured long-delayed constitutional protections for Hawaiʻi’s most productive agricultural lands. In Congress, Tokuda serves on the Armed Services Committee, the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, & the Agriculture Committee, while also holding leadership roles focused on rural health, Asian Pacific American representation, & regional Democratic organizing. She & her husband are raising their two sons in the same public schools that shaped them, reinforcing her emphasis on education, local opportunity, & stewardship of Hawaiʻi’s future.
Jill Tokuda is well-positioned to win re-election in 2026 largely because Hawaiʻi’s Second Congressional District remains safely Democratic & she faces no listed challengers according to Ballotpedia. As a first-term incumbent elected comfortably in 2022 & even more so in 2024, Tokuda benefits from the structural advantages of incumbency, strong name recognition across the neighbor islands, & deep local ties built over decades in public service. Her committee assignments in Congress, particularly on Armed Services & Agriculture, reinforce her ability to deliver for a district with significant rural, military, & outer-island needs. With no serious primary opposition & a Republican bench that has struggled statewide for decades, Tokuda enters the 2026 cycle as a clear favorite to retain her seat.
District 1
Incumbent: Ed Case (Male, 73)
Challengers: Della Au Belatti (Female, 52); Jarrett Keohikalole (Male, 41)
Incumbent Democrat Ed Case is favored to retain Hawaiʻi’s First Congressional District in 2026, though he faces a potentially competitive Democratic primary from two challengers running to his left. According to Data for Progress polling, Case leads the field but does not currently command a majority, raising the possibility that the primary could go to a runoff. The central tension in the race is ideological: Case’s centrist, pragmatic style continues to appeal to establishment Democrats & moderate voters, while progressive activists are increasingly coalescing around alternative candidates who promise a more assertive liberal agenda.
Ed Case (Incumbent)
Ed Case has represented Hawaiʻi’s First District since 2019 & is one of the state’s most experienced federal lawmakers, having previously served in Congress in the early 2000s & as Hawaiʻi’s lieutenant governor. At 73, Case is viewed as a steady but ideologically moderate figure, emphasizing fiscal responsibility, national security, & bipartisan governance. Further, younger voters see Case as old & out of touch. While his approach has helped him survive competitive primaries in the past, it has also drawn criticism from progressive voters who view him as insufficiently aligned with the Democratic Party’s leftward shift on issues like climate policy, healthcare, & foreign affairs.
Della Au Belatti
Della Au Belatti, a 52-year-old former Hawaiʻi State Representative, enters the race with strong progressive credentials & deep ties to Democratic Party organizing. As a former chair of the Hawaiʻi Democratic Party, Belatti is well known among party activists & grassroots networks. Her campaign emphasizes reproductive rights, climate action, housing affordability, & a more confrontational posture toward corporate influence in politics. Belatti’s challenge is converting institutional goodwill & activist enthusiasm into broad-based voter support beyond the party’s progressive base.
Jarrett Keohikalole
Jarrett Keohikalole, 41, is a sitting Hawaiʻi State Senator representing Kāneʻohe & Kailua, & positions himself as a generational & ideological alternative to Case. Keohikalole has built a reputation as a policy-focused progressive, with emphasis on healthcare access, cost-of-living relief, & environmental protection. His youth & legislative experience give him credibility among voters seeking change without inexperience, though he faces the same structural hurdle as Belatti in expanding appeal beyond Honolulu’s progressive core.
Who Is Most Likely to Win
Despite dissatisfaction among liberal voters, Ed Case remains the most likely winner due to incumbency, name recognition, & a fragmented opposition. While Belatti & Keohikalole together may represent a majority of the district’s Democratic electorate ideologically, their split support significantly benefits Case under Hawaiʻi’s primary rules. Unless one challenger consolidates progressive voters or Case’s support collapses late in the cycle, the incumbent’s path to renomination & eventual re-election in this safely Democratic district remains the clearest. If Case suffers a health scare or scandal of sorts, look for Belatti to take advantage with the grassroots background & current lead over Keohikalole in the Data for Progress poll.
Primary outlook: Competitive, but Case favored
General election outlook: Safe Democratic hold
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates & races at all levels: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii,_2026
- Verasight Poll & information- https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-trump-slips-on-immigration?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=6273&post_id=185257395&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2ncajb&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
- Politico Coverage of Hawaii’s 1st district- https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2025/11/17/the-next-democrat-indivisible-wants-to-boot-from-congress-00653934
- Jill Tokuda interview- https://www.facebook.com/TheYoungTurks/videos/watch-jill-tokuda-delivers-a-powerful-speech/1235181668562817/
- Ed Case Interview- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwI90ATzz5s
- Della Au Belatti- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dlYyUykJvY
- Jarrett Keohikalole https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZpOlCRUzD4