Iowa | Morgan Davidson | 1/28/2026
In 2026, Iowa will see one Senate race & four House races in its congressional elections. The Hawkeye state has been a Republican stronghold since Trump came on the scene in 2016, but the Cook Political Report currently has two of Iowa’s House seats as toss-ups. In a year where Democrats should be expected to overperform, we could see Hawkeye voters change the distribution of the state’s legislative power in Washington. Currently, all 6 of Iowa’s congressional seats are held by Republicans, but 2026 could see one, if not more, of these change. Voters will be able to cast their ballots in the primary on June 2, 2026 & in the general election on November 3, 2026.
At the Senate level, Joni Ernst announced she would be stepping down, clearing the way for an open-seat race in Iowa for the US Senate. Ernst’s departure is a bit shocking, given Trump’s dominance in the state in 2024, when he achieved his highest vote share in his three times running at 55.7%, up from 51.7% & 53.1% in 2016 & 2020, respectively. That said, she has been criticized from the Right for being too moderate & attacked on the left for her stance on abortion. Ernst has been a leading figure in the fight to restrict a woman’s right to choose, making her out of step with national voters, but this position would have seemed to put her in safe graces with Republicans, particularly Republican primary voters. Ultimately, her pushback on nominations like Hegseth & refusal to endorse Trump in the Iowa caucus led MAGA elite to view her as an enemy. Ernst cited wanting to spend time with her family as to why she would not run in 2026, but threats by Trump allies to primary her tell a different story.
4 Republicans & 4 Democrats have filed to run for the open Senate seat. On the Republican side, Ashley Hinson appears to be in the lead with 3 million more cash on hand than any of her Republican colleagues. While Democrats should be more competitive here than they were in 2024, but the Republican advantage will be hard to beat even in a midterm year where Dems are likely to rise in a backlash election. 3 Democrats appear to be viable candidates for the seat: Nathan Sage, Josh Turek, & Zach Wahls, all of whom have raised over 1 million dollars for their campaign, appear to be in a close fight to win the party’s nomination.
At this point, Zach Wahls is the most likely winner of the Democratic primary for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. Wahls benefits from a combination of statewide name recognition, an existing base as a state senator, early endorsements, & an ability to bridge the party’s progressive & establishment wings in a crowded field. His campaign has shown the strongest signs of organization & momentum, which matters in a primary where no candidate currently dominates outright. If Wahls were to falter, Josh Turek would likely have the next-best chance, largely because of his appeal to party insiders & labor-aligned Democrats, as well as his compelling personal narrative as a Paralympian & public servant. However, in the absence of clear polling data or a significant fundraising gap, the Democratic primary remains competitive & unpredictable, though Wahls appears marginally better positioned than the rest of the field.
Turning to the U.S. House, Iowa will hold four congressional races in 2026:
- District 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R), incumbent
- District 2: Open seat (Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) running for U.S. Senate)
- District 3: Zach Nunn (R), incumbent
- District 4: Randy Feenstra (R), incumbent
Most Competitive Districts for Democrats
The most competitive districts for Democrats in Iowa include Iowa’s 1st Congressional District (IA-01) & 3rd Congressional District (IA-03). IA-01, which covers eastern Iowa including Davenport & Iowa City, is widely viewed as one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in 2026. The district has a long history of swing voting & narrowly favored Republicans in 2024, when Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) was re-elected by just 799 votes. With a mix of college-educated voters, organized labor, & urban & suburban communities, IA-01 remains highly sensitive to turnout & national political conditions. As a result, national Democrats have again targeted the district as a top flip opportunity, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee & allied groups signaling early investment.
IA-03, centered on Des Moines & its surrounding suburbs, has similarly shifted into the competitive category. Once a reliably Republican seat, demographic change & suburban realignment have narrowed GOP margins, leading nonpartisan forecasters to rate the district anywhere from “lean Republican” to toss-up. Republican Rep. Zach Nunn narrowly held the seat in 2024 after flipping it two years earlier, & recent polling suggests Democratic challengers remain competitive. Compared to Iowa’s more rural districts, IA-03’s electorate is more college-educated & suburban, making it especially responsive to national political trends & candidate quality. By contrast, Iowa’s 2nd & 4th Districts remain more structurally Republican due to their rural composition & recent voting patterns, leaving IA-01 & IA-03 as Democrats’ clearest paths to House gains.
Most Competitive Iowa Democrats in 2026
Christina Bohannan: IA-01
A law professor & former state legislator, Bohannan ran a razor-thin race in 2024, losing to Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks by just 799 votes. She has announced she is running again in 2026, giving her a significant advantage in name recognition, campaign infrastructure, & donor familiarity in a district Democrats view as highly competitive. Among potential Democratic challengers, Bohannan stands out as the most proven vote-getter in IA-01, though she will again need a strong turnout & national support to overcome the incumbent advantage.
Sarah Trone Garriott: IA-03
Trone Garriott, a state senator representing part of the Des Moines metro, has emerged as the leading Democratic contender in IA-03. Recent campaign developments, including former House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst suspending her campaign & endorsing Trone Garriott, have helped consolidate Democratic support behind her, reducing the risk of a divided primary. In a district trending more competitive due to suburban realignment, Trone Garriott’s legislative experience & growing party support position her as Democrats’ clearest path to reclaiming the seat, though she still faces an uphill general election against an incumbent Republican. Together, Bohannan & Trone Garriott represent Democrats’ strongest opportunities to flip Iowa House seats in 2026, combining district fit, electoral credibility, & early signs of party consolidation.
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates & races at all levels: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Hawaii,_2026
- Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness: https://www.cookpolitical.com/
- Iowa Capital Dispatch: Iowa Political News: https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/
- Zach Whals Interview- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w-q46u-K3g
- Josh Turek Interview- https://www.youtube.com/shorts/s1_b0nFqlsc