New York often sits in the average voter’s mind as a solid blue state, almost as a homogenous Democrat stronghold. With the recent election of Zohran Mamdani as the mayor of NYC, one wouldn’t be faulted for assuming that the rest of the state is skewed towards the left to some degree. Representatives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer lend credence to this impression.
Much of this is also no doubt due to the cultural significance and liberal disposition of New York City, but outside of the Big Apple, the story is a little more complicated. It is true that both senators from the state have been Democrats since 1998 and that the state has voted for a Democrat in the presidential election since 1988. But in the past few election cycles, there have been multiple house seats that have changed hands, and now the house delegation makeup is 19 Democrats and 7 Republicans.
Some of the more interesting races will likely actually be within the Democratic party as opposed to between the two parties. The issues facing the state extend beyond just NYC, and include extremely high rents and housing prices, crime and safety, education and budgetary woes, and general affordability. The solutions to these issues have split democrats regarding how to solve these issues. For example, Democrats are split between its pro-development wing, which wants to build more housing, and wings more focused on tenant-protection. Centrist elements of the party are also calling for more strict immigration and anti-crime initiatives, further splitting the party.
But there are still races that will be important for Democrats to defend from Republicans. Democrats’ biggest challenge isn’t just flipping seats, it is defending multiple very narrow wins from 2024 and handling a few races that face redistricting. At the end of the day, control of the U.S. House of Representatives may come down to one or two seats, and New York has a couple of races that may decide that control. The primaries will take place on June 23, with the general election occurring on November 3rd.
Currently, the two Senators are Democrats Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand. Schumer is arguably one of the highest profile Democrats in the nation and he serves as the current Senate Minority Leader and previously the Senate Majority Leader. Gillibrand is slightly less well known, but serves on the Committee on Appropriations and the Committee on Armed Services. Neither of these two senators are up for election this cycle, and both remain relatively popular.
In the House, there are 19 Democrats and 7 Republicans. In ascending district order, the representatives are as follows: Republican Nicholas J. LaLota (NY-01), Republican Andrew Garbarino (NY-02), Democrat Tom Suozzi (NY-03), Democrat Laura Gillen (NY-04), Democrat Gregory Meeks (NY-05), Democrat Grace Meng (NY-06), Democrat Nydia Velazquez (NY-07), Democrat Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08), Democrat Yvette Clarke (NY-09), Democrat Daniel Goldman (NY-10), Republican Nicole Malliotakis (NY-11), Democrat Jerry Nadler (NY-12), Democrat Adriano Espaillat (NY-13), Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14), Democrat Ritchie Torres (NY-15), Democrat George Latimer (NY-16), Republican Michael Lawler (NY-17), Democrat Pat Ryan, (NY-18), Democrat Josh Riley (NY-19), Democrat Paul Tonko (NY-20), Republican Elise Stefanik (NY-21), Democrat John Mannion (NY-22), Republican Nick Langworthy (NY-23), Republican Claudia Tenney (NY-24), Democrat Joseph Morelle (NY-25), and Democrat Timothy Kennedy (NY-26).
However, there are two incumbent Democrats who are not running for reelection this cycle in Velázquez in the 7th district and Nadler in the 12th. This means that Democrats will have to work a little harder in these races to counter the established Republican candidates who will see this as a rare opportunity. Republican Elise Stefanik in the 21st is also not running for reelection. Out of the 26 races, these are the Democratic names to keep an eye out for:
- District 1: Chris Gallant
- District 2: Patrick Halpin
- District 3: Tom Suozzi
- District 4: Laura Gillen
- District 5: Gregory Meeks
- District 6: Grace Meng
- District 7: Antonio Reynoso and Claire Valdez
- District 8: Hakeem Jeffries
- District 9: Yvette Clarke
- District 10: Dan Goldman and Brad Lander
- District 11:Troy McGhie
- District 12: Alex Bores, Jack Schlossberg, and Micah Lasher
- District 13: Adriano Espaillat
- District 14: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- District 15: Ritchie Torres
- District 16: George Latimer
- District 17: Cait Conley and Beth Davidson
- District 18: Pat Ryan
- District 19: Josh Riley
- District 20: Paul Tonko
- District 21: Blake Gendebien and Dylan Hewitt
- District 22: John Mannion
- District 23: Aaron Gies
- District 24: Alissa Ellman
- District 25: Joseph Morelle
- District 26: Tim Kennedy
Most Competitive Districts for Democrats
There are roughly seven races that will be competitive for Democrats. The first, and the most competitive, will be in the 17th district located in the Hudson Valley. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler has raised a massive amount of money so far, sitting on $5,209,722 of donations. But even with this war chest, polls and analysts consider this race a true tossup. The biggest question is who in a crowded field of Democratic primary candidates will come out on top. These candidates’ backgrounds range from nonprofit executives to political reporters and cybersecurity and infrastructure experts. Cait Conley and Beth Davidson so far look like the frontrunners, with both having raised over $1 million and the former racking up endorsements from incumbents. The district has voted for Democrats in practically every statewide and federal election save for the 2022 governor race, and before Mike Lawler it was represented by a Democrat in the house since 1983. One key element in this district’s race will be the significant Jewish population, including conservative Hasidic communities in Rockland County. The war in Iran and Gaza will be potent political talking points and can swing this district slightly more towards the right, given many Democrats’ disillusionment with the U.S.-Israel relationship.
Another competitive race will be the 4th district, located in suburban Long Island. Currently represented by Democrat Laura Gillen, this district is the second wealthiest in New York and one of the wealthiest in the country. Similarly to the 17th district, this one leans slightly blue but by a smaller margin. Democrats only won it by 2.3 points in 2024, and before Gillen, the district was briefly held by a Republican. That candidate has yet to declare his campaign, but this race will still be somewhat tight. This race will be a must-hold for Democrats, but with Gillen’s centrist platform and solid focus on local issues, it is certainly possible.
The next competitive district will be the 19th district, a historically competitive seat that flips back and forth between parties. Incorporating the Catskills, Hudson Valley, and greater Capital District, it is largely a white and rural district represented currently by Democrat Josh Riley. Riley, a mix of progressive and centrist policies, won this district by 2.2 points in 2024, and while he is not wildly popular, he is popular enough and both well-funded and well-connected enough to be a key part of Democratic efforts to win the House. He shouldn’t lose this race with all of these factors, but the fact that Democratic planners are still focusing on this district means that they likely also have a little trepidation given how uncertain polls can be. Republicans will likely be looking to flip this seat back regardless of how the rest of New York’s races shake out.
One of those important targets will certainly be the chaotic 3rd district, representing parts of western Long Island. This is the wealthiest district in New York and the fourth wealthiest nationally, meaning that most progressive policies here will struggle. Nonetheless, the district leans towards Democrats, with Tom Suozzi having taken the seat after George Santos’ infamous tenure here. This mess of a political stint by Santos may have played a part in Democrats taking this seat, but it is far from certainty that this will remain blue. The 3rd district has had a litany of both Republican and Democrat representatives, but has been shifting blue lately. Importantly, in the 2024 election, this district voted for Trump while also electing a Democratic representative, making it one of the thirteen across the country that voted this way. Between its wealth and its hyper-urban nature, Suozzi has had to focus on cultivating an image of him being a common-sense Democrat focused on bipartisan solutions. It also didn’t hurt that he pushed for tax breaks and removing double taxation on homeowners. Thankfully for Democrats, this approach seems to have worked and Suozzi is fairly popular. But given how competitive this district has historically been, don’t be surprised if this one comes down to the wire.
From here, the races get slightly less competitive, but still are the biggest targets for upsets on both sides. In the 11th district, drama regarding the constitutionality of a redistricting effort and lawsuits have made a traditionally red district (currently the only one in metropolitan NYC) more open for a Democrat to win. Nicole Malliotakis, the incumbent Republican representative, is a very popular third-term representative and won the last election 64-36. Before her, however, the Staten Island district was represented by a Democrat, a pair of Republicans before that, and then only Democrats from 2013 all the way back to 1945. The district still leans red in both its registered voter numbers and recent voting results, but a lawsuit alleging voter discrimination against minority groups made its way all the way to the Supreme Court before being halted for this cycle, meaning that next cycle, this map may look vastly different. For now, it is still likely a slightly red seat, but with a blue wave big enough, Republicans may not be able to hold onto this district.
In the 1st district, Republican incumbent Nick LaLota, who was re-elected with 55.5% of the vote in 2024, may be at risk of an upset. On paper, this seat looks safe. Located on the eastern end and North Shore of Long Island, including the Hamptons, this district used to be a swing district in the 1990s before leaning more and more Republican since the 2010s. But a December 2025 poll found that 41% of voters supported LaLota while 38% supported the current leading Democratic candidate Chris Gallant. With 20% undecided, this seems to indicate this could be a closer race than previously anticipated, especially as polling aggregators have continually downgraded this seat over the past year from a solid Republican win to a likely Republican win. That being said, the fight is certainly uphill. LaLota has raised $2,404,492, around eight times as much as Gallant has. LaLota is also a two term representative, and represents a collection of fairly wealthy and middle-class towns that have historically voted red. If the winds continue to blow in Gallant’s direction, this could be an interesting race to watch.
Another potential upset race will be in the 21st district. Similarly to the 1st, this race sees incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik facing a surprisingly strong campaign from Democrat Blake Gendebien. A historically blue district, Stefanik has changed the game since she won this seat in 2015. But she’s set to shift the paradigm once more, now in the other direction. After having nearly been nominated by Trump to be the United States Ambassador to the United Nations in 2024, she decided in December 2025 that she would not run for reelection this cycle, leaving the race more open than expected. Republicans have rallied around businessman Anthony Constantino and he has raised over $5 million in a short time. But Democratic challenger and dairy farmer Blake Gendebien has also managed to raise an enormously surprising $4 million over the same time, making this a last minute addition to the watchlist. Don’t be fooled, the district still leans slightly red, but without an incumbent Republican, Gendebien may just be able to shock observers here.
Finally, there is one race that will not be important in the fight for control of the House, but will be very interesting to watch in order to see where internal Democratic politics is heading. In the 12th district, the district represented Midtown Manhattan and both the Upper East and West Sides. It is the most Democratic district in New York and the 9th most in the country, while also sitting high on the rankings when it comes to average wealth. As a result, the extremely crowded field has a lot of money poured into it, with four candidates raising at least $1 million already. There is a candidate focusing on big-tech regulation paired with progressive social issues, there is an establishment Democrat, there is a younger generation-focused candidate who also happens to be a grandson of John F. Kennedy, and then there is a center-left, anti-Trump coalition candidate. Each has backing and momentum, but seeing as incumbent Jerry Nadler is not running for reelection, this will be an interesting test lab for the near future of Democratic politics in elite, urban districts.
Most Competitive New Jersey Democrats in 2026
Cait Conley: NY-17
Cait Conley, 39, is a former U.S. Army combat veteran and former director of counterterrorism for the National Security Council. A West Point graduate and Hudson Valley native, Conley is leveraging her military and public service career to push into politics. After deployments to Afghanistan and Iraq across her 16-year-long career, she is focusing her campaign on issues such as lowering costs, cleaning up corruption, affordable healthcare, infrastructure, and treating climate change as a national security issue. In a crowded race, Conley has managed to raise the most money and gather the most endorsements out of any remaining candidate. $1,914,138 raised is nothing to scoff at, and when paired with a host of endorsements from current representatives and organizations, Conley has a lot of momentum going forwards. In particular, this district’s large Jewish population may actually play in Conley’s favor, despite this voting bloc often voting for conservatives. Conley’s experience in the Middle East and with counterterrorism may yield her some goodwill here, and in a district that has historically swung blue, she has a good chance of flipping this seat back.
Recent Interviews
Cait Conley on her NY District 17 House Campaign, Trump, Hegseth and the Illegal Iran War
Beth Davidson: NY-17
The other main contender in the 17th district is Beth Davidson, a 52-year-old Rockland County legislator. Davidson has deep roots in the district, having been a staunch activist when it comes to housing advocacy and administrative work. Between her time at the YMCA, her synagogue’s board, and the Environment Committee and Task Force on Water Resources Management, Davidson truly has experience in a lot of different facets of public service. Her platform is mainly focused on housing affordability, the cost of living, infrastructure, and access to things like healthcare and abortion rights. On the campaign front, she is a seasoned politician. She has ran and won multiple local level campaigns, and this time around she has raised an impressive $1,490,848 through the end of 2025. While she has less endorsements, the people of the district may resonate with her long career of local leadership more than Conley’s, and her Jewish background will help pull that conservative Hasidic community towards her campaign. While money still matters a lot in elections, and she is second on this front, local trust often is a great counter. In the end, the real question will be how much voters want their representative to play a part at the national level versus at the local level. And if they lean towards the local level, Davidson will have a lot more support and a better chance at winning the seat.
Recent Interviews:
Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson on Bid for Congress | PIX on Politics Daily
Laura Gillen: NY-04
Out in a quiet and suburban Long Island district, incumbent Laura Gillen, 56, looks out on an empty field of Republican candidates. And yet, poll aggregators only give this district a slight blue lean. Having won in 2024 by a 2.3 point margin, the former lawyer and law professor has been a staunch centrist. She declined to congratulate Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral win, she broke ranks with Democrats to pass the Laken Riley Act, she voted to censure Democratic congressman Al Green for speaking during Donald Trump’s State of the Union Address, and she recently voted to pass extra funding to ICE. Her platform aims to focus on current Democratic priorities like the cost of living crisis and local investment towards healthcare and infrastructure, while also courting conservatives with more law enforcement-oriented policies and an explicit rejection of the Democratic Party’s left wing. While this might turn off younger voters, it will certainly work in a very wealthy district that swings between parties. Gillen certainly has money of her own; she’s raised $2,858,864 already and has likely not had to spend very much so far. She will certainly win the primary, but if Republicans run Anthony D’Esposito, the previous representative, she will have to work quite hard to hold the seat. Nonetheless, polls suggest she has a slight edge, and depending on whether a blue wave is explicitly anti-ICE or not, she could either ride it to victory or die by it due to her voting record.
Recent Interviews
Rep. Laura Gillen on government shutdown and more | The Point Full Interview 10.5.25
Josh Riley: NY-19
Josh Riley, 45, is the incumbent representative in this historically competitive district. He was able to flip the district with 51.1% of the vote in 2024, and now he is looking to build on this success. Coming from a working-class background in upstate New York, Riley attended Harvard Law School before taking roles in the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee, and as a counsel to former Senator Al Franken. This is his first time now in office, and he has pushed a slew of policies that straddle the line between progressive economic populism and more moderate social and immigration policies. Riley’s main focus, like many Democrats, has been on the cost of living, campaign finance reform, healthcare, and protecting democracy. With endorsements from many organizations and a whopping $3,129,176 raised through the end of 2025, Riley is in a solid position as the campaign ramps into high gear. But Republicans will try to target this seat, and while the main challenger hasn’t raised a ton of money yet, he is a state senator with endorsements from Trump, Speaker Johnson, and Representative Mike Lawler. This will be a close race based on how previous election cycles have gone, and if Republicans see an opportunity, Riley may need to work hard to fend off his opponent.
Tom Suozzi: NY-03
Tom Suozzi, 63, is a lifelong public servant. A native to this Long Island district, his father was the mayor of Glen Cove, as was Suozzi himself for a time. He was then elected to the House in 2016 and reelected in 2018 and 2020. In 2022, he attempted to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2022 but lost to incumbent governor Kathy Hochul. But in 2024, he managed to re-win this district 52-44, flipping this seat back for Democrats. In terms of policy, Suozzi has some commonalities with Riley and Gillen. He is focused primarily on affordability through reducing taxes, he strikes a moderate tone on immigration, he backs police funding and extending ACA tax credits, and bipartisanship and pushing back against the left wing of the party are both core to his political identity. All of this has thus far played well in this wealthy district, and there is no reason to believe that this won’t continue. Suozzi has immaculate name recognition and local connections in this district, he has raised almost 10 times the amount as his main Republican opponent (Suozzi is sitting on $3,246,484 through 2025), and after Santos’ tenure, the sense of stability that Suozzi has brought will likely earn him some goodwill from independent voters. Unless the expected blue wave in November doesn’t materialize, Suozzi should be expected to win this race.
Chris Gallant: NY-01
In contrast to Tom Suozzi’s career, the 36-year-old Chris Gallant has served the public in almost every way besides politics. A former New York Army National Guard who served in the Middle East, a Black Hawk helicopter pilot, a FAA air traffic controller and leader of his union, and a volunteer firefighter, Gallant aims to bring competence and accountability to this race and win a surprise victory against incumbent Republican Nick LaLota. In order to do this, Gallant has adopted a more moderate platform than many other Democrats in a bid to win voters in a district that went Trump’s way by 10 points. He hits the affordability and healthcare points like many other candidates, but he also aims to invest in coastal protection, something important for Long Island, and explicitly is running against what he calls “political infighting” and a lack of results from elites in DC. His efforts have yielded a lot of hope for Democrats, with a recent poll finding that 41% of voters supported LaLota while 38% supported Gallant. This is far closer than anticipated, but it will absolutely still be a tough fight for Gallant. LaLota has an incumbent and fundraising advantage in a red district. Additionally, Gallant’s identity as openly gay may or may not rub more conservative voters the wrong way. If LaLota’s popularity continues to slip, Gallant may just be able to upset him and win the seat, but both polling and betting odds are not particularly in his favor at the moment. Nonetheless, keep an eye on this race as we get closer to November.
Blake Gendebien
Blake Gendebien, 49, has made quite a stir in the race in the 21st district. A dairy farmer and lifelong resident of Lisbon, NY, he has thus far ran a campaign that may just become a model for how Democrats can win rural red districts. Besides being a dairy farmer, he is a school board member, the Vice Chair of a major regional dairy co-op, and founded a pediatric cancer nonprofit. This background of service and working-class upbringing has influenced his policy platform. Gendebien’s priorities are supporting farmers, protecting small businesses, and general rural economic development, but he also wants to push for anti-corruption measures, expanding healthcare access in rural areas, and working across the aisle to get things done without getting too much into the weeds ideologically. While none of this by itself would make much of a stir in one of the reddest NY seats, his massive fundraising efforts have turned heads. His campaign has raised $4,051,856, and is closing in on the $5,005,073 Republican candidate Anthony Constantino has raised. Constantino does not have the incumbent advantage, as the representative here, Elise Stefanik, is stepping down. This race may be Democrats’ best chance at retaking this seat since 2012, when they last controlled it. That being said, Gendebien will have a tough fight on his hands, as Republicans will almost certainly see this seat as a must-win in New York. While polling aggregators have increasingly pushed their predictions closer to a tight race, polls still lean slightly towards Constantino, so keep an eye out for data as the summer comes and goes.
Recent Interviews:
CBS6 speaks with NY-21 candidate Blake Gendebien
Alex Bores: NY-12
The first of three leading Democratic candidates in the Midtown Manhattan district, Alex Bores, 35, is an indicator for a potential future for the Democrats. Bores himself is a fifth-generation New Yorker who was a software engineer at Palantir before working in various fintech startup roles. He also was elected to the New York State Assembly in 2022, where he helped pass the AI regulation legislation (RAISE Act). With a master’s degree in computer science, he is focusing heavily on ai regulation and is best understood as a technocratic progressive. Bores is pushing for strong regulation and safety standards for AI companies, as well as countering deepfakes and job displacement. Outside of AI, Bores wants to make NYC more affordable through expanding the housing supply, he wants to strengthen democratic institutions and (interestingly) limit the influence of wealthy interests, and he strikes a pro-worker tone based on concerns about tech-driven inequality. The reason he is a frontrunner is because he has both racked up endorsements from state and federal legislators and he has raised the most in the race by a wide margin at $2,236,328. In fact, he raised $1,200,000 in the first 24 hours, but the vast majority of it was from outside of the district. With strong fundraising and a local base, Bores seems to be a favorite. But time will tell how his less locally-rooted donor base and his competition will hinder his ascent to the seat. Both of his rivals have strong campaigns, and if he manages to beat them, he could be a preview of what mainstream urban Democratic politics could be.
Recent Interviews:
Why Is The AI Industry Afraid Of Alex Bores? | Lever Time
Jack Schlossberg: NY-12
Next up in this race is Jack Schlossberg, the 33-year-old political commentator and author. The only grandson of President John F. Kennedy, Schlossberg represents the generational change Democrat in this race. He studied at Yale, Harvard Law School, and Harvard Business School before becoming a Vogue political correspondent and author. Without any traditional governing experience, Schlossberg’s campaign is focused on the aforementioned generational change, the cost of living, democracy and anti-corruption, and climate and civic engagement efforts. This platform is one that hinges on a sense of idealism and renewed faith in politics, and Schlossberg has leaned into this by vowing not to take corporate PAC or super PAC money. Despite this, he still has managed to raise $1,117,588 with a lot of grassroots donations. All of this has led to Schlossberg actually leading in the race according to multiple polls. While they all highlight large undecided blocs, the polls show a 7 to 10 point lead for Schlossberg as of February. With massive name recognition and a strong social media presence appealing to local voters, he certainly has the “vibes” part of running a campaign down. What remains to be seen is whether his lack of a detailed policy platform and governing experience irks voters as the primary nears.
Recent Interviews:
Extended interview: Jack Schlossberg
Micah Lasher: NY-12
Micah Lasher, 44, is bringing political experience and establishment support to this race. He is a freshman New York State Assemblymember, but is also a former Director of Policy for Governor Kathy Hochul, Director of State Legislative Affairs for Michael Bloomberg, aide to incumbent Representative Jerrold Nadler, and former chief of staff in the NY Attorney General’s office. Throughout all of these positions, he has focused on housing reform, minimum wage increases, gun control, and abortion protections. All of these, plus additional focuses on the cost of living, abolishing ICE, and fighting Trump-era policies, make up his policy platform. Lasher also enjoys endorsements from many of his previous bosses and has the highest fundraising potential with Michael Bloomberg’s support. He already has the second-most raised at $1,374,760, and with deep governing experience, he will certainly appeal to older voters and more mainline Democrats. But without something to make him stand out besides his experience, this NYC district may just have gotten a taste of Zohran Mamdani’s politics and push for someone more progressive than Lasher. If this happens, Lasher may just end up being the control experiment for onlookers to measure this race by. But if this isn’t the case, Lasher stands in a strong position to win the race if this becomes a financial battle of attrition.
Recent Interviews:
Full interview with U.S. House candidate Micah Lasher | The Point 3.8.26
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels:
- Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness:
- The New York Times and City & State New York are both great local resources for coverage of elections and issues facing New York.