After the 2024 election there was talk of New Jersey having become a swing state. For the first time since George H.W. Bush, a Republican president, had been within 5 points of taking the state (Trump still lost, however). Before then, almost every presidential election had gone blue by around 14 points. But looking deeper, there are some Republican strongholds within the state that had been, and continue to, gain ground in house and gubernatorial elections. That being said, since 2020 and especially since 2024, New Jersey may start swinging back towards the Democrats. There are a few districts which have recently had both Democratic and Republican representatives, and with a potential blue wave looming, there may be a couple seats that could help swing control of the house. The primary elections will be held June 2, 2026, with the general election taking place on November 3, 2026.
The issues facing New Jersey favor what many Democratic candidates have been focusing on across the country. Primarily, voters are concerned about affordability (in the form of property traces and the cost of living), healthcare, infrastructure, and a large state-level budget deficit. But New Jersey has some of the highest tax burdens, including a high top marginal personal income tax rate of just under 12%, meaning Republicans have the upper hand here. Democrats have controlled both houses of the New Jersey Congress since 2004, meaning the blame can fairly squarely fall on them in the eyes of many voters. A key dynamic will be just how important of an issue this becomes in the light of a host of other more pressing issues, and as other neighboring states like New York have persisted through high income taxes and even slightly raised the top marginal tax rates.
Currently, the two Senators are Democrats Andy Kim and Cory Booker, with only the latter up for election this cycle. Booker, first elected in a 2013 special election and then re-elected in 2014 and 2020, is running third full term in office and is likely to win. He is one of the most notable Democrats of late, having made many media appearances critical of the Trump administration and also still riding some name recognition from his 2020 presidential campaign. Booker currently serves on four committees: the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, the Committee on Foreign Relations, the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, and the Committee on the Judiciary. His platform has always centered on social justice, criminal reform, and healthcare & social policy, but this cycle he is leaning heavily on an economic platform focused on eliminating federal income taxes on the first $75,000 of income for many Americans, expanding tax credits, and raising taxes on the rich. WHen it comes to fundraising, there is no better than Booker. $30,106,071 has been donated to his campaign through the end of 2025, and when combined with his high popularity and his importance, Booker is all but assured to retain his seat.
In the House, there are eight Democrats, three Republicans, and one vacancy in the 11th district. In ascending order, the representatives are Democrat Donald Norcross, Republican Jeff Van Drew, Democrat Herb Conaway, Republican Chris Smith, Democrat Josh Gottheimer, Democrat Frank Pallone, Republican Thomas Kean Jr., Democrat Rob Menendez, Democrat Nellie Pou, Democrat LaMonica McIver, and Democrat Bonnie Watson Coleman. Out of the twelve races, these are the Democratic names to keep an eye out for:
- District 1: Donald Norcross
- District 2: Bayly Winder
- District 3: Herb Conaway
- District 4: John Blake and Rachel Peace
- District 5: Josh Gottheimer
- District 6: Frank Pallone
- District 7: Rebecca Bennett, Tina Shah, Miachel Roth and Brian Varela
- District 8: Rob Menendez
- District 9: Nellie Pou
- District 10: LaMonica McIver
- District 11: Analilia Mejia
- District 12: Brad Cohen and Jay Vanigankar
Most Competitive Districts for Democrats
Most districts are safe in the hands of the incumbent parties largely because of both how the districts are drawn and how popular those incumbents are. However, there are four districts that will likely be “battlegrounds” in 2026.
The first is NJ-02, where Republican Jeff Van Drew is the incumbent. He was first elected as a Democrat in 2018, but announced the following year that he would be switching parties. The district is New Jersey’s largest geographically and encompasses Atlantic City. What makes this district unique is that it has shifted to the right ever since the 90s, and despite going Obama’s way in both elections, has voted for Republican candidates almost every statewide and federal election since. Van Drew, who was re-elected with 58.1% of the vote in 2024, is facing three main Democratic challengers. Additionally, Van Drew’s popularity in some polls has dropped down to 42%, with a plurality indicating that they would be open to a new representative. A candidate who embodies that “new blood” archetype might just be able to reverse the district’s rightward swing.
The next district to keep an eye on his NJ-07. The incumbent is Republican Thomas Kean Jr., who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2024, but he is facing a swatch of potential Democrat opponents who are well funded. In the Democratic primary are figures such as healthcare executive and former navy aviator Rebecca Bennett, former chief of staff for the Small Business Administration Michael Roth, former senior advisor to the U.S. Surgeon General Tina Shah, and former chair of the New Jersey Forward Party Brian Varela. This district has flip-flopped between Democrats and Republicans over the past several election cycles, and with a plurality of voters disapproving of Kean’s work thus far combined with such a narrow win in 2024, it is likely to flip again. With the northwestern district, which has become more ethnically diverse over time, being one of the most affluent congressional districts in the United States, Democrats may have to tweak their standard messaging to improve their odds here. But Kean has faced a lot of pressure due to his political closeness to Trump as well as a lot of virtual town halls instead of talking to voters in person. This will be the seat Democrats likely focus on the most.
The final district that Democrats will focus on differs from the previous two. NJ-09 will be a defensive battle, with incumbent Democrat Nellie Pou fighting to remain after being elected with only 50.8% of the vote in 2024. The district is entirely urban, stretching from Pompton lakes to northern Newark and the Hudson River-adjacent town of Cliffside Park. In the 2024 election, the district shifted dramatically to the right, voting by 1.1 points for Trump after having previously voted for Biden by 19 points. Pou still managed to win her election, but the winds were clearly shifting. That being said, much of the vote was driven by the district’s large Hispanic population, which truly helped in Trump’s 2024 election. Since then, it is highly likely that Trump has burned through any goodwill he may have had with this constituency due to his immigration policy and failure to address affordability. This seat will no doubt be close as Republican strategists see this as a district they can win back by labeling Pou as out of touch. Time will tell if a blue wave and good donor relations thus far will manage to keep Pou in office.
Most Competitive New Jersey Democrats in 2026
Bayly Winder: NJ-02
Bayly Winder, 33, is a former foreign affairs officer and Biden appointee who has branded himself as a bipartisan and pragmatic candidate. Those two facets are key to his plan for winning a district that leans slightly red. His policy focuses are centered around lowering the cost of living, protecting Medicaid and social services, anti-corruption and government reform, and a foreign policy that is in favor of foreign aid and free trade. His campaign has tried to be an antithesis to Van Drew’s by promising in-person town halls and more direct constituent engagement. Winder has also tried to pursue that “outsider” stance by criticizing both parties’ failures to address issues and corruption on both sides. He doesn’t quite have the laundry list of endorsements other candidates might, but in this race he has the most money, having raised $451,845 through 2025. On paper, this campaign seems pretty solid, but his connections to Biden’s administration will likely hurt him more than it will help him. His credentials and his bipartisan focus will definitely gain him ground, and he likely will win the primary, but in a general election Winder will have to work hard to earn the trust of the constituency.
Michael Roth: NJ-07
The first of a few candidates covered in this brief that will be running in this district, Michael Roth is a strong contender. Roth, who is in his mid-thirties, is a community investment expert who served briefly atop the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) under Joe Biden. His campaign is also focused on pragmatic center-left policies. Issues like making NJ more affordable, cutting middle-class taxes and increasing corporation taxes, increasing the housing supply and reforming zoning, and lowering energy costs through modernization all feature prominently in his platform. What makes Roth stand out is his experience at high levels of both the public and private world. It also doesn’t hurt that he has raised a respectable $610,278 so far and is a New Jersey native. But neither of those facts alone will win him the crowded primary, which is the main hurdle. It is important to note that in early March, members of the Summit Democratic municipal committee held a straw poll in the race in which Roth emerged as the winner. Yet it is early in the race, and there is still plenty of time for Roth to gain daylight between himself and the rest of the candidate pool or to flame out and be buried under the weight of many competing personalities.
Recent Interviews:
Brian Varela: NJ-07
Brian Varela, 36, is seeking to pull on the heartstrings of voters in this district. A first-generation American, Varela grew up in the working class and he emphasizes this “lived experience” narrative. After graduating from Kean University and UNC, he built a successful marketing company and later expanded into early education businesses. Varela has long been a Democratic organizer and tried to win the 2022 congressional primary here as a third-party candidate but now he is firmly a democrat. His policy focuses are on the cost of living, universal healthcare, childcare and family policies, pushing back against ICE, and acting as an outsider against political elites. Between his compelling personal narrative, business success, and outsider positioning combined with some increasingly popular progressive policies, Varela is looking to take advantage of Kean’s weaknesses and flip this seat. But without elected office experience and in a crowded field with candidates with similar positions, his personal narrative will have to do a lot of heavy lifting. So far, he has racked up endorsements from everyone including county Democratic chairs to organizations like Peace Action and the mayors of Sparta and Newark. He also has raised the second most by a Democrat in the race, riding high on $1,759,731. While he may not be the favorite yet, his story and background pair well with his policies and the issues facing New Jersey today. As we approach the primary election, keep an eye out for Varela to make a challenge to the more establishment Democrats in this race.
Recent Interviews:
Brian Varela OneNJ7 Meeting July 2025
Rebecca Bennett: NJ-07
The favorite at the moment is probably Rebecca Bennett. Bennett, a Navy helicopter pilot and aircraft commander who served for over 15 years, is running a tight campaign that has raised an inordinate amount of money. Her $1,943,974 is the most in this race, and is surprising given her lack of government or political experience. Bennett also worked in healthcare startups and larger healthcare companies, and this is a major policy area of hers. She wants to expand access to care, lower costs, and improve patient outcomes, but the rest of her platform is more generic. She values national security, and wants to combat the rising cost of living, but her website is more vague about exactly how she wants to accomplish these. While this gives Bennett more flexibility down the line, she will need to eventually sort out these questions. She does have some policies regarding environmental protections and resilient infrastructure, as well as combating the influence of special interests, but her campaign is more profile than policy-based. What makes her the favorite is her ability to fundraise without connections and run as a pragmatic, electability-focused Democrat with military precision and a healthcare worker’s focus on outcomes. With Roth and Varela breathing down her neck, she is still a long way from being a shoe-in, but if she gains momentum she may be hard to stop from winning the primary.
Recent Interviews
Nellie Pou: NJ-09
Nellie Pou, 69, is a well-known and long-serving New Jersey Democrat. Pou has one of the longest political resumes in NJ, starting as the Deputy Speaker of the NJ Assembly in 1997 before serving in the State Senate after 2012 and now in the U.S. House. Before those elections, she worked in the Paterson city government as a business administrator, youth program coordinator, and human services director. She was also the first Latina from New Jersey elected to Congress, a title that has and will win her some goodwill in her district. Pou has also positioned herself as a broad coalition-builder with appeal amongst moderates, something that can only help her in tight races like this. Her policies are grounded, focusing on healthcare and social services, expanding access to education and workforce development, social justice and immigrant protections, government funding for local programs, and infrastructure. That last area is important to Pou, as she serves on the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, as well as the Homeland Security Committee. By running a low-drama campaign, she forces voters to look at her resume and political success thus far, which is a solid move. She also has vast local fundraising networks and has raised $1,773,275, dwarfing her Republican counterparts. But with her slight win in 2024, this seat is still not safe. The district is trending more competitive, and her establishment stances don’t win her support amongst both Republicans and progressives. If Pou wants to hang on to her seat, she will need to make sure that her constituents are able to trust her to continue representing them well and by ensuring that her Republican counterparts are not just extensions of Trump but their own people. Unlike other districts, connections to Trump may not be as big of a hindrance for Republicans given voters here liked Trump. But regardless, a blue wave may just give Pou the space to breathe she needs to retain her seat.
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels:
- Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness:
- The New Jersey Globe and the New Jersey Monitor are both great local resources for coverage of elections and issues facing New Jersey.