The Sidelined War: Myanmar’s Fight for Freedom

Foreign Policy Brief #171 | By: Damian DeSola | December 8, 2024

Photo by Pyae Sone Htun on Unsplash

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On February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, forcefully overthrew the democratically elected government in a coup d’etat. Since that day, the entire country has been consumed by a multiparty civil war. Various ethnic groups, armies, militant groups, and insurgents have aligned either with the military junta or with the democratic government in-exile. 

The goals of the military were to regain power over the country to advance their economic and ethnonational goals, while escaping civilian accountability and oversight. Since taking power, and fighting an unexpectedly difficult civil war, the junta has engaged in a campaign of internal repression. By suppressing information about the civil war and brutally repressing dissidents, Tatmadaw has attempted to retain power through extreme autocratic practices. Tactics of torture, counterterrorism, censorship, mass arrests, and scorched earth, have made the junta a target of Western sanctions and a lack of recognized legitimacy by the West. Tatmadaw has become increasingly reliant on Russia and China for economic, military, and political support.

The main military wing of the exiled government, the National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG), is the People’s Defense Force (PDF). Formed in reaction to the coup, they have aligned with various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) for the purpose of military support, training, and shelter from the junta. This has resulted in a complex network of alliances throughout the country, many of which have chosen to join the PDF’s fight against Tatmadaw. 

The bulk of exiled government-aligned groups have set aside their differences, mainly ethnicity, for the common goal of dismantling the junta and installing a democratic national government, though the aftermath of the deposition and replacement is still up in question. A major group that aids the NUG’s mission is the Three Brotherhood Alliance. Their motivation is to achieve liberation from the junta and establish greatly autonomous ethnic regions.

For the moment, the idealistic vision of a multiethnic federal democracy that provides universal civil rights has taken the hold of the immediate imaginations of the opposition’s leadership and soldiery. However, if the rebels achieve victory, the continued existence of Myanmar as a nation will be up for debate due to the tenuous relationship between the insurgent groups.

Analysis

The PDF and its EAO allies have proven extraordinarily capable of thwarting and repelling Tatmadaw’s forces. While Tatmadaw still retains control over major urban centers and has the luxury of international support from Russia and China, the PDF and the Three Brotherhood Alliance have achieved sweeping victories. The youthful and idealistic ranks of both the PDF and EAOs have been able to grind down and push back the corrupt and unorganized Tatmadaw. At this point, it has become increasingly clear that the Tatmadaw is nearing collapse. The concern now is that the victorious rebel groups will be unable to agree to any form of centralized democratic governance, and that territorial disputes based on ethnicity will spark further conflict after the main rival of the junta is dismantled. 

Under the Trump administration, will the United States’ approach to Myanmar change? Unlikely, a Trump presidency will in all probability be satisfied with the current situation in Myanmar. There is little to no strain on the U.S. economy in the aid that is already being provided; the incoming administration will be much too focused on resolving conflict in Ukraine, Israel, and China to spend the necessary time and material to change course on policy in Myanmar. If time is taken by the administration, Myanmar will likely be treated as a skirmish in the battle with China that must resolve itself over time. Furthermore, without the go-ahead from the United States, Europe will continue its focus on Africa and Ukraine before turning to further support a free Myanmar.

The only realistic solution for international support of a democratic Myanmar would be local powers. South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and any others who may seek to reduce Chinese influence in the region could be persuaded to provide economic, political, and military aid to the democratic rebels. However, with the recent political troubles South Korea is facing, and the ever-building threat of direct military confrontation with China, Myanmar is taking a backseat in the overall conflict analysis of the Southeast Asian theater. 

From a grand strategical perspective, it seems Myanmar is on its own for the moment. The Tatmadaw’s dissolution becomes more of reality every day, and the chance for increased ethnic conflict grows with that reality. Without Western support, Myanmar seems all the more likely to fall further into chaos. All we as democratic citizens can do now is educate ourselves on the matter and work for the day when the political will to support all those in need for liberty arrives.

Engagement Resources

• The official website of the National Unity Government of Myanmar
• An interactive map of the war from the International Institute for Strategic Studies

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