The Disastrous Impact of Disinformation on the Election
Technology Policy Brief #122 | By: Mindy Spatt | December 21, 2024
Photo by Element5 Digital
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SUMMARY
Just how big was the impact of disinformation on the election of Donald Trump?
Leading up to the election, commentators and experts issued numerous warnings about disinformation, and how easily it could be spread through social media. Post-election analysis shows those concerns were well founded; not only did disinformation impact voters, it substantially swayed the results.
ANALYSIS
Disinformation isn’t a new concern, but concerns about it were amplified in the months before the presidential election. Between artificial intelligence, social media platforms eliminating guardrails, and a Trump-fueled atmosphere where lies are normal and often unchallenged, the extent to which disinformation had a decisive impact on the election is unprecedented.
In October, a joint report by the FBI and CISI (the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency) warned that “Generative AI-enabled tools have lowered the barrier for foreign malicious actors to conduct more sophisticated influence campaigns” including “inauthentic news articles, … synthetic pictures and deepfakes” being disseminated “at greater speed and scale across numerous US- and foreign-based platforms.”
Trump is, of course, no stranger to disinformation; during some rallies, his entire speeches were a string of outlandish lies. Spreading those was a cornerstone of his campaign strategy, aided by Elon Musk’s X, and Musk himself, often seen gloating and giggling at Trump’s side.
Immigration is a perfect example. Trump repeatedly described hordes of undesirable migrants besieging the United States, sucking up public benefits and good jobs and roaming the streets brazenly committing violent crimes.
The actual statistics on border security don’t support these claims, especially the most alarming ones about violent criminals, but that didn’t stop Trump from sticking Harris with responsibility for the pretend problem. Her reasoned response that Trump had killed immigration reform in Congress didn’t stop him. Nor did the fact that apprehension and release numbers were similar during the Biden and Trump administrations.
And there was the famous fabrication that Haitian immigrants were eating dogs and cats, a bizarre story that was debunked on national TV immediately after Trump said it. Still, it went viral, and its repercussions kept it in front and center in the media for weeks.
Another deceptive video featured a Haitian man who claimed he had voted in two counties in Georgia. That video was traced to Russia, and the featured man wasn’t actually Haitian. Trumps’ most successful ad played on fears of immigrants and fears of transgender people, claiming Vice President Harris was giving gender reassignment surgeries to violent “illegal” immigrants in prisons.
Trump was also able to exploit a false narrative on the country’s economic state as well; polling on views about the country’s financial situation in 2024 found that despite a robust economy by most indicators people reported extremely negative views of it. The research company Ipsos reported that Harris polled higher among people who understood that inflation had declined over the past year; Trump did better among the people who believed the opposite. .
Ipsos also found that media source “affects people’s understandings of what’s true or not. Notably, Americans who primarily get their news from Fox News and conservative media and social media/other are more likely to answer questions about inflation and crime incorrectly than Americans writ large. “
It is easy to say why commentators including Darrell West of the Brookings Institute concluded that “false claims affected how people saw the candidates, their views about issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime.” Now we all have to live with the disastrous results.
Engagement Resources
- How Disinformation Defined the 2024 Election Narrative, Darrell West, Nov. 7, 2004,
- Misinformation Decided the US Election, J. Bradford Delong, Nov 11, 2024,
- Disinformation From Adversaries and Americans Swamped 2024 Election, Rebecca Beitsch Nov. 8, 2024,
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