Where there’s oil, there’s the United States of America. It’s an old joke, fostered by a century of U.S.-backed coups and military interventions in the name of cheap access to oil reserves. But the age of oil politics may be giving way to a new age of mineral politics.

Rare earths are a group of 17 elements that are increasingly important in today’s day and age. From smartphones and wind turbines to radar systems and F-35 fighter jets, rare earths are vital to the functioning of any modern nation. Other metals, like nickel, cobalt, graphite, and lithium, are equally important for modern technology including their use in batteries. But there are only so many reserves of these resources, and the great powers of today are beginning to recognize the importance of securing access to them.

The most notable examples of this have been the U.S.’ desire to annex Greenland, which has rich, vast, and untapped (for environmental reasons) reserves, and the U.S.’ push for a minerals deal in Ukraine. The U.S. currently only has one functioning rare earth mine, and imports almost all of what it needs. What is driving this renewed push by the U.S. specifically is the knowledge that China produces upwards of 90% of the world’s rare earth metals, giving them a de facto monopoly over an industry that America has only recently begun developing.

Analysis

The Ukraine mineral deal has gone through many iterations, with the most recent giving the U.S. 50% of future revenues generated from minerals, oil, and other resources. While a draft as of April 6 only shows the American side of the deal, it emphasizes the central role minerals are playing in today’s geopolitics.

Greenland, on the other hand, has 43 of the 50 minerals deemed “critical” to American security, according to a recent study. These minerals include, graphite, uranium, nickel, and copper, and they are a large part of the reason that Donald Trump has pushed for annexing Greenland. Besides its strategic position near the Arctic and his own personal yearning to cement his legacy, those minerals attract a lot of eyes. 25 of the 34 minerals deemed “critical raw materials” by the European Commission, according to a 2023 survey, were found in Greenland. Denmark controls Greenland, and should push come to shove, the EU could hypothetically access those minerals.

But what hasn’t been attracting a lot of eyes is the third country that the U.S. has been seeking a minerals deal with. Democratic Republic of Congo has been waging a war since 2022 against the M23 paramilitary group, which is allegedly backed by neighboring Rwanda. In early April, the Trump administration acknowledged that it was open to a minerals-for-security deal with the DRC.

Whether or not this deal goes through, part of the reason this conflict began in the first place was because Rwanda wanted access to the DRC’s mineral deposits, something they’ve pushed for since the 1990s. Now, according to the Wall Street Journal, the mineral-rich battleground eastern regions of the DRC have evolved into smash-and-grab smuggling operations. While Rwanda has been seizing Coltan deposits, even neighboring Uganda has gotten involved in the conflict and begun taking over gold mines to the northeast, according to United Nations and Ugandan officials.

The U.S. is not alone in vying for rare earth access. At the moment, the EU is incredibly dependent on China’s exports of rare earth metals. With the global trade system being shaken up by President Trump, many nations like Spain are eyeing increasing trade with China. But others in the bloc are trying to invest in European endeavors. In March, the EU selected 47 rare earth projects across member states, a major step towards fully implementing its 2023 Critical Raw Materials Act, which aims to reduce dependence on China’s exports.

Finally, China’s rare earth exports are also increasingly becoming a tool for geopolitics. After Trump’s tariff  “Liberation Day”, China hit back with export restrictions on its rare earths. Those restrictions also include permanent magnets and other finished products that will be difficult to replace, showing just how effective a geopolitical cudgel China has due to its mining operations.

How much and how aggressively China wields that cudgel is yet to be seen, but minerals are becoming the new oil across the board. From Greenland, to the DRC and China, the resources that make our phones and fighter jets work are beginning to become vital national security interests. And blood is already being spilt to claim them.

Engagement Resources:

• The Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker provides updates for ongoing conflicts. They also have a litany of experts on foreign policy.
• The American Geosciences Institute provides information services and education about the importance of geosciences to society.
• The Payne Institute for Public Policy at Colorado School of Mines is a research institute focused on the environment and natural resources.