For a state that is often considered a Republican stronghold, Louisiana has more political complexity than a surface-level glance. It certainly leans red; that much is sure given the state has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 2000 and Republicans hold nearly every statewide elected office and a majority in the statehouse. With Republican Governor Jeff Landry elected in 2023, the state has pushed further and further right on issues regarding abortion, education, and immigration. However, there is an interesting political divide between Republican rural areas and urban Democratic strongholds like New Orleans. Notably, there is a 37%-35% split when it comes to registered Democrats and Republicans respectively, meaning that in most recent elections, some registered Democrats are voting for Republican candidates.
Demographically, Louisiana is facing population decline and stagnation since 2021. Most residents are white and Protestant, although 32.6% are African American and Catholics also make up a non-trivial cohort. Economically, the state is focused heavily on seafood, farming, and energy sectors, although there is also a small tech and film industry mainly in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Louisiana ranked as the third-least educated state as of 2023 despite having over 40 universities including Tulane University.
In the world of elections, Louisiana has had a busy few years. A 2022 version of the state’s congressional maps was found unconstitutional, due to the state having six seats in the U.S. House of Representatives but only one favoring a Black candidate in a state where nearly a third of the population is Black. In 2024, Republican state lawmakers drew a second majority-Black U.S. House district, but this map has faced legal challenges. This case was supposed to have been ruled on by the U.S. Supreme Court, but the court instead asked for a second round of legal arguments and will likely release a ruling later this spring. This has given time for the current six-district map to be cemented for the 2026 midterms. The primary elections will be held on May 16, with the general election taking place on November 3.
Currently, the two Senators are Republican Bill Cassidy, who is up for election and is facing primary challenges over his decision to vote to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial, and Republican John Kennedy, who is not up for election. Despite his push against the MAGA movement, Cassidy has still racked up endorsements ranging from Drew Brees to Tim Scott and John Thune, on top of the monstrous $11,729,417 raised so far. While his main challenges will come from within his party, namely Julia Letlow and John Flemming, there are still two Democrats who might be able to snatch this seat.
First is Nick Albares, a nonprofit executive and former aide to Governor John Bel Edwards. With an undergraduate degree in theology from the University of Notre Dame and a Master of Public Policy degree from Georgetown University, he comes into this race bearing the most political training out of any other Democratic candidate. His platform focuses heavily on healthcare and social services, both areas he has worked in via his nonprofit work and his political work. His youth, at age 34, could be a positive factor in this race, alongside his political experience. But his name recognition is not strong, and his fundraising data is nonexistent so far. Additionally, his platform is extremely narrow and his media presence is somewhat lacking.
The other potential Democratic nominee for Senator is Jamie Davis, a farmer and candidate for Louisiana’s 21st House of Representatives district in 2023. A Louisiana native, he has worked in multiple fields including electrical engineering, farming, and serving on the Democratic State Central Committee. All of this work experience has endeared him with the rural and working class of Louisiana, as well as helping him to understand the larger issues at hand. Davis’ platform focuses on tax reform, affordable housing, healthcare as a basic human need, respecting the rule of law, higher teacher pay, and minimum wage increases. Notably, he also backs controlling immigration, a stance that will play well in a Republican state Davis’ chances are somewhat better than Albares’, in large part because his platform is broader, his connections to the local communities run deeper. However his fundraising efforts have yielded $16,865 so far. While far more money will be needed to win this race, it is better than any other Democratic candidate, and if the winds blow the right way, a split Republican primary could give him just enough room to win the seat.
In the House of Representatives, the current delegation (in ascending order from the 1st District) is Republican Steve Scalise, Democrat Troy Carter, Republican Clay Higgens, Republican Mike Johnson, Republican Julia Letlow, and Democrat Cleo Fields. The only district with a chance of flipping will likely be the 5th, as Letlow is resigning to challenge Bill Cassidy in the Senate race. This seat is being fought for by a wide range of candidates on both sides, and the district is the least red district in the state that is represented by a Republican (at a still formidable R+18). Out of the six races, these are the Democratic names to keep an eye out for:
- District 1: Lauren Jewett and Jim Long
- District 2: Troy Carter
- District 3: Tia LeBrun and Caleb Walker
- District 4: Conrad Cable and Matt Gromlich
- District 5: Jessee Fleenor and Larry Foy
- District 6: Cleo Fields
Most Competitive Districts for Democrats
There are only two real competitive seats in the state. The first is the 5th district, currently represented by Republican Julia Letlow, that currently sits at a R+18 rating. While that isn’t particularly confidence-boosting for Democrats, the fact that Letlow is running for the Senate seat means that this race has opened up even wider. This district faces a few major problems, mainly its 23.4% poverty rate and the fact that its biggest industries are healthcare, retail, and educational services. The seat has been represented by a Republican since 2014, but there are two main names aiming to change that in this district. The first is Jessee Fleenor, a farmer and a candidate for this district in 2018. His platform is a mix of economic populism, community solidarity, and traditional Democratic policy priorities tailored to a heavily rural district in northeast Louisiana. The other is Larry Foy, a faith-based community leader and social justice advocate who also has some progressive-tinged stances that pair well with his focus less on partisan politics and more on systemic issues. In a largely rural district, both of these candidates will be fighting an uphill battle, but if they can position themselves both as pragmatic candidates who will address the pressing healthcare crisis and economic stability, they both have a shot.
The other main district that Democrats will target is the 6th district, currently represented by Democrat Cleo Fields. While a Democrat-held seat might not seem like a competitive one, especially given the district’s D+8 rating, it has faced a lot of change recently. This has been one of the districts most affected by the congressional map legal debate mentioned earlier, and benefitted from most of Baton Rouge’s whiter and wealthier portions, along with Louisiana State University (LSU), being shifted to the 5th district. Any future debate will affect the competitiveness of this district, so it is important for Democrats to lock this seat down and gain momentum while they can. The district still contains a swath of Baton Rouge and is predominantly urban and Black. Much of its economy is heavily driven by services, healthcare, and industrial manufacturing, meaning any candidate will have to play to these industries in order to have a chance. Cleo Fields is still a very popular politician, and he will likely retain this seat, but his next term in office will likely be a busy one, balancing local issues with national-level crises.
Most Competitive Indiana Democrats in 2026
Jessee Fleenor: LA-5
Jesse Fleenor is a millennial candidate who bills himself as a “new generation of Blue-Dog Democrat.” A local dairy farmer, he tried to win this district in 2018 but fell short. Despite his rhetoric as a Blue-Dog moderate, many of his policies fall on the more progressive end. Fleenor frames his campaign around community values, unity, and everyday economic fairness rather than elite political talking points. His focuses are on eliminating billionaires, reigning in AI, universal healthcare, criminal justice reform, net neutrality, campaign finance reform, and environmental issues. These issues will be a bit of a gamble in a district that haasn’t seen a Democratic representative since 2014, but an open election in which there is no strong incumbent and a potentially split Republican vote could give him just enough wiggle room to connect with a population facing some of the worst of the most pressing modern issues. Republican leadership has helped foment the declining population and number of opportunities in the state and district, and Fleenor’s focus on something different, even if it is a host of progressive policies, could resonate with voters wanting a change. If he is able to win, it would be a statement win and could showcase the strength of progressivism in even the most red and rural districts.
Recent Interviews:
Louisiana Anthology Podcast: 283b. Jessee Fleenor
Larry Foy: LA-5
Larry Foy, 70, has an accomplished professional and public career in college and seminary instruction, pastoral ministry, social justice activism, public policy advocacy, non-profit management, and community organizing. From Chicago to LA, he has worked to implement policies and projects focusing on ending mass incarceration, racial inequality, and restorative justice. He also has a long history of serving as the Regional Director for the Interfaith Movement for Human Integrity, while also serving as a spiritual and denominational leader in the United Church of Christ. All of this nonprofit and religious work will play well in this district, which is one of the most religious districts in one of the most religious states. While his focus on criminal justice reform won’t necessarily resonate with his constituency, his heavy focus on expanding social services like healthcare, reforming government elections and campaign finance, protecting consumers, and funding public education certainly will help his chances. All of these issues are pressing for Louisiana voters, and could provide many avenues to alleviate the high poverty rate in this district. Alongside the electoral factors such as an open seat and a split Republican primary, Foy may also provide a new, progressive vision for a district in desperate need of a change.
Cleo Fields: LA-6
Rep. Cleo Fields has long been in politics. He previously represented Louisiana’s 4th congressional district from 1993 to 1997 and ran unsuccessfully for governor of Louisiana in 1995. After a long stint in the Louisiana State Senate, he finally returned to Congress in 2024 after winning just over 50% of the vote. Fields sits on the Committee on Financial Services, and has championed education, economic development, and community empowerment. His work writing the Delta Initiatives Act and founding the Congressional Classroom has been lauded by local leaders, and now he is set to retain his seat in this race. Fields’s platform is focused on economic justice and wages, quality education, expanding healthcare, and investing in community development and infrastructure. All four of these pillars will play well in this district, especially given his already good track record. With this district leaning blue already, and with Fields already having raised $384,055 with no real Republican contenders, this seat should be a safe blue seat.
Recent Interviews:
Congressmen Jonathan L. Jackson and Cleo Fields discuss SCOTUS w. Barbra Arnwine of TJC
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels:
- Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness:
- The Louisiana Illuminator is an independent, nonprofit, and nonpartisan news organization focused specifically on state government, policy, and elections: Louisiana Illuminator