2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series Brief #3 | Ryan Dulaney | 12/30/2025
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Announced Arizona Democrat Senate Candidates: Ruben Gallego
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Announced Arizona Democrat House Candidates: Amish Shah, Marlene Galán-Woods, Brian del Vecchio, Daniel Lucio, Rick McCartney, Jonathan Treble, Eric Descheenie, Jonathan Nez, Yassamin Ansari, Blake Bracht, Brian Hualde, Chris James, Elizabeth Lee, Evan Olson, Justin Poff, JoAnna Mendoza, Jonathan Buma, Samantha Sevenson, Adelita Grijalva, Jillian Barfield, Maria Flores, Bernadette Greene Placentia, Jessie Martines, Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, Camelia Ward
There are ten federal seats up for election in Arizona in 2026. All nine of Arizona’s U.S. House of Representatives seats and one of two Senate seats. Arizona’s Federal congressional delegation reflects its status as a pivotal battleground state. Multiple House districts and a Senate seat are held by Democrats in a state that has historically leaned Republican.
Arizona’s political landscape has changed over the past two decades. Previously a deep red state in federal races, it has become increasingly competitive, especially in densely populated areas of the state. The Democratic support in presidential elections has steadily increased. Republicans retain strength in more rural districts, while Democrats have made inroads in urban areas such as Maricopa and Pima counties, leading to newly contested House and Senate races.
The state’s population of roughly 7.4 million people, has a median age of 38, and is concentrated primarily in metropolitan areas, particularly around Phoenix and Tucson. This urban-suburban core has been the centerpiece of Democratic gains, while rural communities remain more conservative. These demographics, combined with concerns over affordability, healthcare access, immigration, and reproductive rights, are expected to shape the 2026 federal contests.
Arizona’s primary election is scheduled for August 4, with the general election on November 3.
Democratic Primary Candidates (House + Senate)
U.S. Senate
Sen. Ruben Gallego is the Democratic incumbent, elected to the U.S. Senate in 2024. He previously served a decade in the U.S. House before winning the Senate seat by narrowly defeating a Republican opponent. Gallego represents a statewide Democratic presence in a closely divided state. His tenure in both the House and Senate, combined with his background as a Marine Corps veteran and Latino leader, positions him as a central figure for Arizona Democrats heading into 2026.
Status: Incumbent — expected to seek re-election.
Which population groups support? Donor support?
- Latino voters, veterans, urban and suburban Democrats
- Strong institutional Democratic donor support, labor unions, national party-aligned PACs
Why he might win?
- Incumbency advantage
- Proven statewide electoral coalition
- Strong name recognition
Why he might lose?
- Narrow partisan margins statewide
- Republican turnout surge in a midterm environment
Key election variables
- Maricopa County suburban margins
- Latino turnout levels
- National political climate
Chances of winning: Moderate
U.S. House — Democratic Primary Fields
AZ-01
Open or competitive seat with a crowded primary.
Amish Shah – Former state legislator and 2024 candidate, running again with a focus on issues like healthcare and affordability.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Suburban Democrats, healthcare-focused voters; some carryover donor support
- Why he might win? Prior district-wide exposure; policy clarity
- Why he might lose? Vote splitting in a crowded field
- Key election variables Primary turnout, consolidation
- Chances of winning: Moderate
Marlene Galán-Woods – Democratic candidate with local civic engagement experience.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Community activists, local Democratic groups
- Why she might win? Grassroots appeal
- Why she might lose? Lower name recognition
- Key election variables Voter familiarity
- Chances of winning: Low–Moderate
Brian del Vecchio, Daniel Lucio, Rick McCartney, Jonathan Treble – Additional Democratic candidates who have filed or announced intentions to run.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Limited, mostly small-donor or activist support
- Why they might win? Fragmented field
- Why they might lose? Limited resources and visibility
- Key election variables Field consolidation
- Chances of winning: Low
AZ-02
Eric Descheenie – Former Arizona state representative focusing on rural infrastructure and community investment.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Rural and tribal voters
- Why he might win? Legislative experience
- Why he might lose? Competition from higher-profile challenger
- Key election variables Tribal turnout
- Chances of winning: Moderate
Jonathan Nez – Former Navajo Nation president emphasizing tribal advocacy and regional economic development.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Native American voters, tribal leadership networks
- Why he might win? Strong executive leadership record
- Why he might lose? Limited appeal outside core base
- Key election variables Coalition expansion beyond tribal voters
- Chances of winning: Moderate
AZ-03
Yassamin Ansari – Democratic incumbent representing this urban district, seeking re-election with an emphasis on urban policy issues.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Urban progressives, institutional donors
- Why she might win? Incumbency in a safe Democratic district
- Why she might lose? Low probability primary upset
- Key election variables Progressive turnout
- Chances of winning: High
Sandy Cano-Bravo – Democratic primary challenger.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Grassroots activists
- Why she might win? Anti-incumbent sentiment
- Why she might lose? Incumbent strength
- Key election variables Primary turnout
- Chances of winning: Low
AZ-05
Suburban district with multiple Democratic contenders:
Blake Bracht, Brian Hualde, Chris James, Elizabeth Lee, Evan Olson, Justin Poff — A field of Democratic candidates signaling interest but without an established frontrunner.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Limited; mostly early-stage or grassroots
- Why they might win? Low-turnout dynamics, late consolidation
- Why they might lose? Lack of clear frontrunner or funding
- Key election variables Turnout, candidate withdrawal
- Chances of winning: Low–Moderate (collectively)
AZ-06
Competitive swing district:
JoAnna Mendoza – Veteran and former public service professional; emphasizes cost-of-living and economic issues.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Veterans, working-class voters
- Why she might win? Compelling biography
- Why she might lose? Swing district volatility
- Key election variables Suburban swing voters
- Chances of winning: Moderate
Johnathan Buma – Former FBI agent focusing on accountability and national security experience.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Law-and-order voters, moderates
- Why he might win? National security credentials
- Why he might lose? Crowded primary
- Key election variables Message resonance
- Chances of winning: Moderate
Samantha Severson – Academic and policy-oriented candidate
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Policy-focused voters
- Why she might win? Issue depth
- Why she might lose? Lower visibility
- Key election variables Voter awareness
- Chances of winning: Low
AZ-07
A strongly Democratic district:
Adelita Grijalva – Democratic incumbent who won a special election and is running in the regular cycle.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Progressive voters, Latino communities
- Why she might win? Safe Democratic seat, incumbency
- Why she might lose? Unlikely primary challenge
- Key election variables Turnout
- Chances of winning: High
AZ-08
West Valley district with a small Democratic field:
Jillian Barfield, Maria Flores, Bernadette Greene Placentia, Jessie Martines — Democratic candidates running in a Republican-leaning district.
- Which population groups support? Donor support? Limited Democratic base
- Why they might win? Favorable national environment
- Why they might lose? District partisanship
- Key election variables GOP turnout
- Chances of winning: Low
AZ-09
Mixed partisan suburban district:
Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, Camelia Ward — Democratic candidates focusing on healthcare, education, and housing affordability.
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- Which population groups support? Donor support? Suburban Democrats, educators, healthcare advocates
- Why they might win? Issue alignment with suburban voters
- Why they might lose? Fragmented primary field
- Key election variables Suburban turnout
- Chances of winning: Moderate