South Dakota, or the Mount Rushmore State, is deeply Republican, but the national environment has opened the door for Democrats to make inroads across the country, even with South Dakotans. While a Democrat has not won a federal statewide race in the state since 2008, Trump’s declining approval, the prolonged war with Iran, & persistent inflation have created a more difficult environment for Republicans nationally. Recent polling shows Trump’s approval at a second-term low while support for the war in Iran has also fallen, including among Republicans.
In 2026, South Dakotans can vote in one Senate election & one House race. While the statewide outlook remains bleak for Democrats, organizing & making connections with disaffected voters could prove valuable for the party in years to come. Even in a state as Republican as South Dakota, running credible candidates gives Democrats an opportunity to improve margins, build infrastructure, & stay connected with voters outside of the party’s traditional strongholds.
Mount Rushmore State voters cast their primary ballots on June 2nd & will return to the polls for the general election on November 3rd, with absentee voting beginning September 18th.
Senate:
Julian Beaudion, the Democratic victor from the primary, announced he was dropping out of the race following a house fire, financial difficulties, & what he described as threats against himself & his family. Beaudion did not publicly identify who was responsible for the threats, while Brian Bengs has denied that anyone associated with his campaign threatened Beaudion or his family. With Democrats choosing not to replace Beaudion on the ballot, Republican incumbent Mike Rounds will now face independent challenger Brian Bengs alone.
Bengs (male, 56) ran as a Democrat in 2022 against Senator John Thune but returned to his independent roots following the election. He has argued that the Democratic label makes it nearly impossible to compete statewide in South Dakota & has centered his campaign around reducing the influence of money in politics, expanding access to affordable healthcare, lowering costs, & imposing congressional term limits. Bengs has also said he would caucus with neither major party if elected.
Running as an independent may allow Bengs, a veteran & Air Force officer, to reach voters who would normally dismiss a Democratic candidate, but it does not erase the massive Republican advantage in South Dakota. Republicans account for more than half of the state’s active registered voters, while Democrats make up a little more than 20% & independents or voters with no party affiliation make up roughly another quarter. Rounds remains the overwhelming favorite, but with no Democrat on the ballot, Bengs is now the only alternative for voters looking to deny Republicans the Senate seat. For Democrats, liberals, & anti-Rounds voters in the state, his campaign will be one of the few federal opportunities to test whether an independent candidate can make inroads where the Democratic label has struggled.
House:
Nicole “Nikki” Gronli (female, 52) is the only Democrat remaining on the federal ballot in South Dakota. The small business owner & former state director for USDA Rural Development in South Dakota is running against Republican Marty J. Jackley for the open House seat after incumbent Dusty Johnson left Congress to run for governor, where he ultimately finished third in the Republican primary. Gronli’s key issues include expanding economic opportunity & improving education.
With her business & rural development background, Gronli has focused on generating opportunities for working-class families & entrepreneurs while arguing that wealthy interests should not be the only voices shaping policy. On education, she supports expanding access to early childhood education & improving its quality across the state. Gronli is unlikely to win in 2026, but she is the type of candidate Democrats need if they hope to make inroads in South Dakota. Her years of experience working with rural communities, small businesses, & economic development mean she is familiar with the people & needs of the state. Her background & issue priorities could also give her an opportunity to connect with independents & disaffected Republicans who may be unhappy with Trump but are not ready to embrace a more traditionally liberal Democratic candidate.
Democrats’ Best Chance to Flip:
Democrats do not have a strong pickup opportunity in South Dakota in 2026. With no Democratic candidate remaining in the Senate race, the party’s only federal opportunity comes through Nicole “Nikki” Gronli in the open House seat. Even with no incumbent on the ballot, South Dakota’s strong Republican lean makes Gronli a significant underdog against Marty Jackley.
Still, the open seat gives Democrats their best opportunity to test whether a candidate with deep ties to rural South Dakota can make inroads with voters who have moved away from the party. Gronli’s background in small business, rural development, agriculture, & economic opportunity gives her a profile that fits the state better than a candidate built around national Democratic politics. If there is a path to improving Democratic margins in South Dakota, it likely starts with candidates who can speak directly to rural communities & working-class voters.
The Senate race also gives Democratic voters an alternative in independent Brian Bengs, but his decision to run outside of the party means a Bengs victory would not technically represent a Democratic pickup. Mike Rounds remains heavily favored, making the House race the clearest opportunity for Democrats to directly gain a federal seat.
A Gronli victory would require a massive political shift & should still be considered a long shot. However, success in South Dakota does not have to be measured only by whether Democrats win in 2026. Improving margins, reconnecting with voters, recruiting credible candidates, & building party infrastructure are all necessary if Democrats hope to become competitive in the state again. In one of the most Republican states in the country, simply giving voters a serious alternative is an important first step.
Dates: South Dakota held its primary on June 2 & the general election is November 3.
Recent Interviews
Nicki Gronli– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnsqiWgqcHA
Brian Bengs– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuWr9lb4NZA
Beaudion’s Drop-Out https://www.dakotanewsnow.com/video/2026/08/06/bengs-sd-democratic-party-talk-beaudions-exit-us-senate-race/
Take Action
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels: https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota
- Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness: https://www.cookpolitical.com/
- Get involved with Brian Bengs- https://bengsforsouthdakota.com/get-involved/
- Get involved with Nicki Gronli- https://www.nikkigforsd.com/get-involved