JOBS POLICIES, ANALYSIS, AND RESOURCES
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The Unequal Effects of Climate Change on Vulnerable Communities
Brief #165 – Environment Policy Brief
by : Devyne Byrd
Delve into the connection between environmental injustice and climate change in low-income areas, where discriminatory zoning perpetuates pollution and vulnerability. From Cancer Alley’s toxicity to the unequal impact of climate disasters, marginalized communities struggle to access vital environmental and healthcare resources.
2024: The Year of Elections
Brief #123 – Foreign Policy Brief
by: Ibrahim Castro
In 2024, the world witnessed a surge of elections, yet the outcomes reveal a concerning trend of democratic backsliding and authoritarian resurgence, challenging the very essence of global foreign policy.
The Top 5 Worst GOP Bills: A Closer Look at Troubling Legislation
Brief #125 – Elections & Politics Policy Brief
by: William Bourque
Dive into the political fray with a closer examination of the top five GOP bills stirring controversy and debate. From futile attempts to impeach cabinet members to misguided efforts to roll back progressive policies, witness the stark divisions within Congress unfold in this analysis.
“Alexei’s Death is a Murder Organized by Putin…”
Brief #122 – Foreign Policy Brief
by: Yelena Korshunov
Alexei Navalny’s death in the Polar Wolf colony sparks global outrage and suspicion, with many alleging it as a calculated murder orchestrated by Vladimir Putin’s regime. As investigations unfold and protests erupt worldwide, Navalny’s demise raises profound questions about human rights and democracy in Russia.
The Future of Quality Education Lies in the Past: How Liberal Arts Education Provides a Way Forward for Critical Thinking
Brief #89 – Education Policy Brief
by: Rudolph Lurz
Exploring the intricate interplay between STEM and liberal arts education, Rudolph Lurz unveils a compelling narrative advocating for a balanced approach to fostering critical thinking in American schools. By spotlighting the overlooked value of liberal arts disciplines, Lurz ignites a crucial conversation about the future trajectory of quality education in the United States.
Young Black Voters Lack Enthusiasm for Presidential Candidates
Brief #124 – Elections & Politics Policy Brief
by: Abigail Hunt
Amidst growing disillusionment, young Black voters find themselves disengaged with the 2024 presidential candidates, expressing concerns over issues like access to education and socialist programs. This lack of enthusiasm underscores a broader sentiment of frustration with the two-party system’s failure to address the needs of a new generation.
Texas v. Biden Immigration Clash: Policy Standoff and Legal Implications
Brief #156 – Social Justice Policy Brief
by: Arvind Salem
Amidst Republican criticism of President Biden’s perceived leniency, Texas asserts its authority by implementing its own immigration enforcement measures, leading to legal battles over policies like Wire Fencing and Texas SB 4, now subject to Supreme Court rulings.
Why Can’t We Agree on Foreign Aid?
Brief #121 – Foreign Policy Brief
by: Arvind Salem
Amidst ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, the US offers financial aid rather than direct military involvement. However, recent negotiations over aid have been fiercely debated, illustrating the entrenched partisan divide in the country. Despite bipartisan support for aiding both nations, stubborn factions within each party hinder any potential compromise.
The Effort To Impeach Secretary Mayorkas
Brief #123 – Elections & Politics Policy Brief
by: Abigail Hunt
The political circus around Washington D.C. continues to bring new acts to the stage. Recently, House Republicans charged Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of U.S. Homeland Security, guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors for his alleged mishandling of the border crisis.
Reinventing Policing: The Road to Police Reform in the United States
Reinventing Policing: The Road to Police Reform in the United States
Social Justice Policy Brief #153 | By: Inijah Quadri | January 8, 2024
Photo taken from: https://www.americanprogress.org
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In the United States, the urgent need for police reform has been brought into sharp focus following high-profile incidents involving police use of force. The tragic deaths of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and countless others at the hands of law enforcement have sparked nationwide protests and a deep reevaluation of policing practices. Central to this debate are issues such as the use of excessive force, racial profiling, insufficient accountability, and the increasing militarization of the police.
Analysis
The current U.S. policing model is frequently critiqued for its aggressive tactics and apparent racial biases. A comprehensive report by NBC Post highlighted a disturbing trend: Black Americans, constituting less than 13% of the U.S. population, are disproportionately killed by the police—quite a lot more than all other groups in the USA. This statistic, among others, emphasizes the urgency of systemic change.
Reform initiatives often involve overhauling training programs, emphasizing de-escalation and crisis intervention. An example is the innovative guidelines introduced by the Police Executive Research Forum, which train officers to de-escalate confrontations and prevent shootings. States have been active in reforming use-of-force policies and increasing accountability. For instance, several have limited the use of neck restraints and established clearer standards and training for use of force. These guidelines emphasize the importance of communication, time, and distance in managing volatile situations.
Accountability is another critical aspect of policing reform. The implementation of body cameras has been proposed as a key measure for ensuring transparency and accountability. A landmark study by the University of Cambridge found that body cameras led to a staggering 93% reduction in public complaints against police officers. These devices not only provide real-time evidence, enhancing transparency in contentious incidents but also promote better behavior from both the police and the public. By recording interactions, body cameras serve as a tool for evidence collection, facilitating fair investigations and decision-making.
The concept of community policing has likewise gained significant traction, emphasizing a more interactive engagement between officers and the communities they serve. For example, the Camden, New Jersey police department’s overhaul, with a focus on community policing, has shown promising results in crime reduction and building trust.
However, these reforms face challenges, including resistance from police unions and the deeply entrenched nature of current practices. Nonetheless, effective changes are needed, and this requires a multifaceted approach, encompassing legislative action, community involvement, and internal changes within police departments. Legislative action is needed to standardize training, implement body cameras, and enforce accountability measures. Community involvement is crucial for rebuilding trust and ensuring policies meet local needs. The George Floyd Justice in Policing Act, proposed in Congress, exemplifies a comprehensive federal effort to address these systemic issues, encompassing training, transparency, and accountability. The Act proposes police reforms including bans on chokeholds, mandates on the use of body cameras, and the establishment of a national police misconduct registry to improve transparency. While it has faced challenges in Congress, its components have influenced state and local policies.
Further Insights and Comparative Analysis
- Historical Context: Understanding the evolution of policing in the U.S., from its early inception to its current form, is crucial. Historical analyses suggest that many current practices have roots in past social and political dynamics (i.e., slavery and colonialism), which have disproportionately affected minority communities.
- International Models: Examining international policing models, such as those in the UK or Scandinavian countries, where community-based policing has been successful, can offer valuable lessons for the U.S.
- Case Studies: Newark, New Jersey’s police department transformation, underlined by a significant decrease in use of force incidents, presents a model for successful reform.
Engagement Resources
- Campaign Zero (campaignzero.org): Provides data-driven policy solutions to end police violence in America.
- National Police Accountability Project (nlg-npap.org): Dedicated to ending law enforcement abuse through litigation and public education.
- ACLU Policing (aclu.org): Advocates for a fair and effective law enforcement system.
- Center for Policing Equity (policingequity.org): Produces analyses identifying and reducing the causes of racial disparities in policing.
- Law Enforcement Action Partnership (lawenforcementactionpartnership.org): Advocates for effective and just law enforcement policies.
For a comprehensive look at how states are expanding their role in regulating law enforcement use of force and other reforms, see the National Conference of State Legislatures report: Law Enforcement Legislation | Significant Trends 2022
Check out usrenewnews.org/policereform for more coverage on this subject. Get the latest updates from our reporters by subscribing to the U.S. Resist Democracy Weekly Newsletter, and please consider contributing to Keeping Democracy Alive by donating today! We depend on support from readers like you.
AI and the Dumbing Down of Education
AI and the Dumbing Down of Education
Education Policy Brief #88 | By: Rudolph Lurz | January 4, 2023
Photo taken from: www.linkedin.com
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In many ways, 2023 was the year of AI. ChatGPT is ubiquitous in boardrooms and classrooms alike. Its usage is prevalent across grade levels and industries. AI bots have passed law school and MBA examinations, along with the United States Medical Licensing Exam (USMLE).
Chatbots are replacing customer service phone operators. They’re also available, and customizable, on apps such as Snapchat. In short, AI bots can provide full essays for students along with restaurant recommendations for celebrating that one-click B+ afterwards. The technology is progressing faster than school districts’ capacity to keep up with it. Many districts are placing bans on ChatGPT, although proving AI usage remains a challenge. In a recommendation to the G20 titled, “Reconsidering Education Policy in the Era of Generative AI”, the authors note, “While tools to detect whether content is created by AI are being developed and deployed, their effectiveness varies and the sophistication of means and mechanisms to get around them will continue to evolve in parallel.”
AI usage represents one of the rare areas where political party affiliation does not necessarily reflect where policy actors stand on the issue. Some Democrats and Republicans are alarmed by it. Others believe it represents a chance for economic growth and job creation.
Democratic U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal noted that deep-fake, AI-generated voice recordings could have harmful effects on society and geopolitics alike. Many GOP policy makers are worried that AI is apparently too woke and that ChatGPT itself has anti-conservative bias. Entrepreneur Elon Musk noted that AI represents a civilizational risk. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie accused primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy of amateurism, noting at a recent debate, “I’ve had enough already tonight of a guy who sounds like ChatGPT.”
Despite the fact that AI usage is considered plagiarism, AI sites like Magic School also exist for educators.
Therefore, within one year of AI’s widespread usage, teachers can design quizzes, assignments, and even full curriculum maps using AI assistance, and students can then complete them using ChatGPT.
In all of this heavily formulaic and repetitive AI-generated drivel, is learning even taking place? Is teaching?
One of the most frequent refrains in the GOP’s culture war is that teachers should “stick to teaching” and avoid “indoctrination”.
In that regard, AI provides the perfect answer for the GOP’s goals. GOP policy actors have frequently advocated for less rigid standards for education licensure, noting that veterans and business representatives should be allowed to teach in the classroom. There’s a severe teacher shortage nationwide, and positions are difficult to fill.
AI provides potential standardization of the curriculum, shovel-ready lessons and assessments for novice educators to implement, and potentially an end to critical thinking and all of the sensitive topics associated with it. Some GOP policy makers might claim to dislike AI, but it provides the inevitable conclusion of their culture wars on education: a vanilla, just-the-facts curriculum that avoids any contentious topics that make students uncomfortable.
If you’re a conservative GOP policy actor, what’s not to like?
ANALYSIS
I am an educator at a good private school. I teach English and a DE Communication course, which allows students to earn college credit at a nearby university. I frequently catch students using ChatGPT and other AI bots to complete assignments. AI detectors like GPT Zero are only a first line of defense. They will analyze a document and provide a likelihood that the document was generated by AI.
I tell my students that AI has a distinct, pedantic “accent” that is repetitive and needlessly verbose, but also uses perfect punctuation and grammar. If I suspect AI usage, I run it through an AI detector. I also have ChatGPT myself, and run my assignment prompts through ChatGPT to see what comes out. If a student submits work that is identical to what ChatGPT has produced for me, and the document shows up as 90%+ AI generated using an AI scanner, I have enough evidence to go to administration to refer the student for an academic honesty conference.
Perhaps the simplest tool I use to prove AI usage is the humble document history button on Google Docs. It shows each change the student made to the document, right down to individual backspace keystrokes. If there is only one edit made and 1000 words appear at once, it is likely that the document was copied and pasted. Students can claim that they did not use ChatGPT when they are sitting across from the Academic Dean. It is harder to claim that they wrote 1000 words with perfect grammar and punctuation in one single edit on their assignment.
With each of these academic honesty discussions with my supportive administrative team, we approach it as a teachable moment for first-time plagiarism incidents. 20% of college students do not consider AI usage as cheating. It is important to show clearly the line between using ChatGPT as a tool and abusing it as a 24/7 version of George McFly from Back to the Future to complete assignments using digital “handwriting” that looks like their own.
As an educator, I see AI’s potential and wish I had it during my doctoral program. Not to write anything for me, naturally. On my own writing website, I am highly critical of ChatGPT’s style and ability level as a writer. ChatGPT will also “hallucinate” when it does not know the answer to something, since it is programmed to speak confidently about any topic. If it does not know the details of an answer, it will make them up. Maybe that is why it is so bad at basic mathematics.
That said, I think ChatGPT is really useful as a source mining tool.
My wife is a surgical oncologist. I sat across the table from her when she was working on a pancreatic cancer presentation. I asked ChatGPT to provide the best treatment options for female pancreatic cancer patients under the age of 50. It provided a mix of pedantic, basic, and just plain useless information, along with some recommendations that stretched the truth, all without documentation or sources. My wife got a good laugh from Dr. ChatGPT. Then I asked it to provide a list of academic journal articles from reputable sources that discussed pancreatic cancer incidence in female patients under the age of 50.
My wife stopped laughing. In seconds, ChatGPT completes one of the most annoying parts of the academic research process-paring good information from garbage on the Internet. I show my students how to use ChatGPT to find good sources, but then stress that they must read the sources themselves.
In short, effective usage of AI in the classroom is more about coding than copy/paste. As the common adage goes, garbage in, garbage out.
The problem that I see coming is that education is going to start looking like the garbage out portion of that phrase. GOP policy actors who are so concerned about so-called “woke” indoctrination will use AI to create the most vanilla and non-controversial curriculum possible. Donald Trump Jr. and other GOP critics frequently use the term “Orwellian” in their criticism of “woke leftists”. I fear that these same GOP policy actors who incorrectly invoke fears of 1984 will create an education system that looks a lot like the world of Fahrenheit-451, and that AI will help build it.
Captain Beatty is Guy Montag’s boss in Fahrenheit-451. Early in the novel, he defends the education system in this dystopian society, in which critical thought is banned and trivial facts are memorized and regurgitated by students instead.
Beatty states,
“You must understand that our civilization is so vast that we can’t have our minorities upset and stirred. Ask yourself, What do we want in this country, above all? People want to be happy, isn’t that right? That’s all we live for, isn’t it? For pleasure, for titillation? Colored people don’t like Little Black Sambo. Burn it. White people don’t feel good about Uncle Tom’s Cabin. Burn it. Someone’s written a book on tobacco and cancer of the lungs? The cigarette people are weeping? Burn the book. Serenity, Montag. Peace, Montag. Take your fight outside. Better yet, into the incinerator. Funerals are unhappy and pagan? Eliminate them, too…Let’s not quibble over individuals with memoriams. Forget them. Burn all, burn everything. Fire is bright and fire is clean” (pp. 59-60).
Fahrenheit-451 uses firemen to burn books in the homes of dissidents, but in most cases, the firemen are not necessary. Adult citizens have their reality TV programs that provide mindless entertainment, after learning and reciting mindless information during their schooling. There’s no need for critical thinking. Just turn on the TV.
I am honestly more concerned about AI sites for educators than ChatGPT for students.
If AI writes the curriculum and students use AI to find the answers, we have no need to fear 1984. We will enter the world of Fahrenheit-451.
No so-called “woke” material will be discussed, and no firemen will be necessary. Students will not have to experience the pain of thinking about things which might trouble them. Donald Trump Jr., Ron DeSantis, and other Republican culture warriors will be happy.
I do not see the “civilizational threat” from AI that Elon Musk sees. I see us undoing the work of centuries of education and philosophy, all in the name of convenience.
AI is unlikely to destroy us. But if it is placed in the hands of conservative policy makers, it will make us all a little more stupid.
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Further Reading
- Magic School Website (AI for Educators): https://www.magicschool.ai/
- White House Executive Order on AI: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/
Check out usrenewnews.org/education for more coverage on this subject. Get the latest updates from our reporters by subscribing to the U.S. Resist Democracy Weekly Newsletter, and please consider contributing to Keeping Democracy Alive by donating today! We depend on support from readers like you.
Updates on the Israel-Hamas War
Updates on the Israel-Hamas War
Foreign Policy Brief #111 | By: Ibrahim Castro | January 4, 2024
Photo taken from: www.ndtv.com
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Situation in Gaza:
Nearly three months have passed since the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas militants that killed 1,200 people with over 200 more taken hostage and led to an Israeli bombing campaign in the Gaza strip that has killed 22,000 people and further divided the world. Among Gaza’s population of 2.2 million people, more than 1.7 million have been displaced by the conflict. The aid that has entered Gaza so far has not been adequate for the amount of food, water, fuel, life-saving medicines and supplies, sanitation and shelter needed by the besieged population. About 70% of homes in Gaza have been destroyed leaving almost the entire strip’s population without shelter to return to.
Many fear a push of Palestinians out of Gaza as the death toll continues to rise and top Israeli officials make claims for the removal of civilians. Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right ultranationalist, said in recent days that Israel “should take steps to encourage immigration of the majority of Palestinians in Gaza to Europe”. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gavir commented that Israel “could not withdraw from any territory we are in in the Gaza Strip. Not only do I not rule out Jewish settlement there, I believe it is also an important thing”. The US State Department has called the comments made by the Israeli officials “ inflammatory and irresponsible”.
Earlier this week, Israel said it was withdrawing two brigades from Gaza, with three more brigades to be pulled out at a future date. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has rejected suggestions that the pullout of some troops is part of a wider plan to end the military campaign in the strip.
South Africa files a genocide case against Israel:
South Africa has launched a case at the United Nations’ top court alleging that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza amounts to genocide. South Africa’s claim is that the magnitude of death and the extent of the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip meets the threshold of the 1948 Genocide Convention. Israel will now appear before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to contest South Africa’s accusation that it is committing genocide against Palestinians in its war with Hamas. For decades, South Africa has backed the Palestinian cause for recognition and statehood. The country has often likened the treatment of Palestinians to that of the Black population in South Africa during the apartheid era.
South Africa argues that the court has jurisdiction in both countries because both are signatories of the genocide convention and the convention’s ninth article states that disputes between nations over the convention can be submitted to the International Court of Justice. There are currently two other genocide cases are on the court’s docket. The first is a case filed by Ukraine shortly after Russia’s invasion which accuses Russia of planning acts of genocide in Ukraine. The other ongoing case involves Gambia accusing Myanmar of genocide against the Rohingya minority.
Hamas leader killed in Beirut:
Deputy Hamas chief Saleh al-Arouri was killed on Tuesday night in what is believed to be an Israeli drone strike, but not claimed, on Beirut’s southern area of Dahiyeh. The strike marks the first targeted attack inside Lebanon since 2006. This would not be the first Israeli strikes to have hit Lebanon in recent months. Arouri was a key figure in the Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s armed wing, and a close ally of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader. He was positioned in Lebanon acting as an intermediary for Hamas and Hezbollah.
Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging near-daily fire since the Oct. 7 attack, but the violence has mostly been limited to the border region between Lebanon and Israel. Israeli air strikes and shelling is reported to have killed more than 100 Hezbollah fighters and dozens of Lebanese civilians since then, including children, the elderly and several journalists. Human rights groups and local officials have also accused Israel of hitting Lebanese border areas with shells containing white phosphorus. Israel has insisted the assassination of the Hamas leader in Beirut was not an attack on Lebanon, however international law dictates that such incursions without consent into a sovereign state’s territories to be illegal. Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has made first public statements since the airstrike and said that the killing Arouri would “not go unpunished”.
Houthi’s attacks on ships in the Red Sea and US forms coalition:
The attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have rerouted a majority of global trade away from the waterway . Oil, natural gas, grain and everything from toys to electronics typically travel through the waterway separating Africa and the Arabian Peninsula en route to the Suez Canal, where 15% of the world’s trade and 40% of Europe-Asia trade passes. It is the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia. Companies have had to divert ships to sail around Africa, adding billions of dollars in cost because of the extended journey. The Houthis say the seizing of ships headed for Israel is a response to Israel’s assault on the Gaza Strip and will only end once a permanent ceasefire is put into place.
The US in turn announced a plan to assemble a multinational naval coalition to safeguard Red Sea shipping called Operation Prosperity Guardian. US Secretary of Defense Loyd Austin said on Tuesday that Greece and Australia had also joined the coalition, taking it to a total of 20, but at least eight countries taking part have declined to be publicly named. On December 31, 2023, US attack helicopters repelled an attack by the Houthis on a Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) container vessel sinking three of their ships and killing 10 fighters. In response to the sinking of the Houthi ships Iran has dispatched a naval frigate to the Red Sea. The US-led coalition against the Houthis, Iran dispatching its warships, and Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria present to us a very clear indication that the conflict is spreading rapidly and multiple states are getting involved in one manner or another.
Pushback to Netanyahu’s rule
Israel’s Supreme Court on Monday struck down a government plan to limit the powers of the judiciary, a move that is likely to revive tensions and division in the country as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wages war in Gaza. In Israel, a majority of the population believes Netanyahu’s government is at least partially to blame for the events of October 7. A poll conducted by researchers at Bar Ilan University asked Israelis about trust in information and decision making regarding the war in Gaza. Results show that under 4% of Israelis support Netanyahu.
Check out usrenewnews.org/israel-hamas for more coverage, differing views and analysis of this conflict. Get the latest updates from our reporters by subscribing to the U.S. Resist Democracy Weekly Newsletter, and please consider contributing to Keeping Democracy Alive by donating today! We depend on support from readers like you.
The Week That Was: Global News in Review
The Week That Was: Global News in Review
Foreign Policy Brief #110 | By: Ibrahim Castro | January 3, 2024
Photo taken from: www.seattletimes.com
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Earthquake in Japan
A powerful earthquake hit Japan on New Year’s Day killing at least 55 people, with rescue teams still struggling in freezing temperatures to reach coastal areas where many are believed to remain trapped under thousands of destroyed homes. Japanese officials warned people to stay away from damaged homes because of the risk of continued strong quakes. Japan’s military dispatched 1,000 soldiers to the disaster zones to join rescue efforts.
The Japan Meteorological Agency issued a tsunami warning for the affected areas and lower-level tsunami warnings and advisories for the rest of the western coast of Japan’s main island of Honshu. Although casualty numbers have slowly continued to climb, the prompt public warnings and the quick response from the general public and officials appears to have limited some of the damage and saved lives as people were prepared because the area had been hit by quakes in recent years. The meteorological agency has warned that still more major quakes are likely to hit the area over the next few days.
Ethiopia-Somaliland deal
Somalia has promised to defend its territory by “any legal means” and recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia after Addis Ababa struck a deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland. The deal would give Ethiopia its long sought access to the sea through Somali territory and give Somaliland recognition by a powerful neighboring state. Somalia has called the deal a clear violation of its sovereignty and appealed to the international community for assistance.
Somaliland has been seeking full statehood since claiming independence from Somalia in 1991. The Somaliland independence movement is fiercely opposed by Mogadishu and not recognised internationally. Ethiopia, which today is the most populous landlocked country with no access to the sea, was cut off from the coast after Eritrea seceded and declared independence in 1993 after a three-decade war. Ethiopia’s economy in turn has been constrained by its lack of access to the Red Sea, a narrow strip of water between Africa and the Arabian peninsula. A hindrance it has now tried to overcome through inflaming tensions with a neighboring state.
Argentina’s shock-economic reforms
Argentina’s newly elected far-right President Javier Milei has sent his planned reform bill to Congress proposing far reaching changes for the country. A large number of sectors would be affected if the bill passes, from the country’s tax system, electoral laws and public debt management. The bill contains articles that range from allowing the privatization of 41 public companies, to eliminating the presidential primary vote and introducing a 15% tax on most exports. Among the more controversial reforms, is a call to cede some legislative powers to the presidency until Dec. 31, 2025, with the option to extend these for a further two years.
Among other coming changes to the country’s economic future, under the new Milei administration Argentina formally announced last week that it would not accept the invitation to join the BRICS bloc of developing economies. Argentina was among six countries invited last August to join the bloc made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to bring the group to an 11-nation economic bloc. Former center-left president Alberto Fernandez, endorsed joining the alliance as an opportunity to reach wider markets as the BRICS countries currently account for about 40% of the world’s population and more than a quarter of the world’s GDP.
Check out usrenewnews.org/globalnews for more Global News coverage. Get the latest updates from our reporters by subscribing to the U.S. Resist Democracy Weekly Newsletter, and please consider contributing to Keeping Democracy Alive by donating today! We depend on support from readers like you.
How Colorado and Maine Decisions Bolster The Efforts To Bar Trump From The 2024 Primary Ballots
How Colorado and Maine Decisions Bolster The Efforts To Bar Trump From The 2024 Primary Ballots
Civil Rights Policy Brief #216 | By: Rodney A. Maggay | January 2, 2024
Photo taken from: www.cnn.com
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Policy Summary: Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution provides:
“No person shall … hold any office, civil or military, under the United States … who, having previously taken an oath … as an officer of the United States … to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”
In the last year, a number of efforts in multiple states have started to try and use the text of this clause to disqualify former President Donald Trump from appearing on the Republican primary ballot of the state for the 2024 Republican nomination for President of the United States. The efforts have been mixed. Initially in some states, petitions were created to ask Secretaries of States to keep Trump off the primary ballots. However, when some of these officials declined to take such a momentous step without more legal clarity, many of these citizens and non – profit groups took their efforts to the courts. All told, including petitions and court cases still pending, there are a total of thirteen states that could decide this particular issue.
In Florida, a case was filed seeking to disqualify Trump. However, the case was eventually dismissed on procedural grounds with the federal district court reasoning that a citizen in Florida did not have standing to bring the case. In Minnesota, another case was filed to disqualify Trump although the case never addressed whether Trump had actively incited a rebellion or insurrection as mentioned in the text of Section 3. The court simply reasoned that Minnesota law permitted political parties to place whomever they choose on the state’s primary ballot. And in Michigan, a petition was brought to disqualify Trump there that eventually became a lawsuit in the Michigan Court of Claims. The case was dismissed. Appeals were made to the Michigan Court of Appeals and the Michigan Supreme Court and both affirmed the trial court’s dismissal, allowing Trump to appear on Michigan’s primary ballot. All of these cases denied Trump’s disqualification for a variety of reasons.
But in two states, Colorado and Maine, activists achieved their first victories in seeking to bar the former President under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment. A lawsuit was filed in Colorado and a trial was held in the case. The trial court found that Trump engaged in insurrection on January 6th, 2021 but reasoned he should still remain on the primary ballot. The case was then appealed to the Colorado Supreme Court, which affirmed that Trump had engaged in insurrection. The high court then went further and in a 4 – 3 decision stated that Trump was ineligible to be on the Colorado 2024 primary ballot because of his actions on January 6th.
In Maine, three registered voters challenged Trump’s eligibility to be on the ballot as they are permitted to do under Maine law. That then triggered a process requiring the Secretary of State to hold a public hearing, hear evidence and issue a ruling on the matter. After hearing the evidence provided at the public hearing Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows issued her ruling disqualifying Trump from the Maine primary ballot. In her ruling Sec. Bellows found it easy to conclude that Trump engaged in insurrection on January 6th and that his action were “intended to incite lawless action” in order to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE
Policy Analysis: The two decisions from the Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine Department of the Secretary of State are significant decisions that could have far – reaching consequences for the 2024 election. After a string of legal defeats in other states where some cases were decided on procedural grounds or where some justices were hesitant to address the topic head – on the Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine Department of the Secretary of State got it right on a number of issues that activists had sought.
The Colorado Supreme Court made six key findings that could be focused on in other states where Trump’s eligibility is still to be decided. In its decision, the court found 1] Colorado state law permits voters “standing” to challenge Trump’s eligibility (contrary to the case in Florida that sought to bar Trump from the primary ballot there), 2] Colorado can enforce a ban on a candidate without approval from Congress, 3] the insurrectionist ban applies to presidential candidates, 4] the January 6th, 2021 attack was an insurrection, 5] former President Trump engaged in the insurrection and 6] Trump’s January 6th 2021 speech inciting the rioters was not protected speech under the First Amendment. And in the Maine decision in Sections D – 3 and 4, Sec. Bellows lays out the factual evidence that demonstrate that the actions of January 6th 2001 was an insurrection and that Trump engaged in it while refuting Trump’s arguments that he was not involved.
All of these findings are key because any uncertainty about these key facts could have been the basis to defeat the challenges to Trump’s eligibility and allow him to remain on primary ballots. Much of the discussion about Trump’s eligibility have been slanted depending on whether one supports or opposes Trump and that has often led to head – scratching conclusions. Right wing media has tried to characterize the January 6th attack as nothing more than a minor shouting match in order to avoid admitting what it really was – a violent attack to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power that resulted in death. By finding it really was an insurrection the Colorado Supreme Court can deny a key argument put forth by right wing media. Their finding also applies to whether Trump engaged in insurrection. Many pro – Trump supporters have tried to deny that Trump instigated the chaos at the Capitol that day. But the Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine Secretary of State’s ruling shows that this line of argument is false and disinformation used for nothing more than to protect a president who could not in good faith admit that he lost an election.
The other findings are important because it addresses presidential eligibility issues that have not been decided by any other court of law so far. Some legal scholars have opined that presidential eligibility must be decided by Congress and not the individual states. Additionally, some have even theorized that the insurrectionist ban from Section 3 does not apply to presidential candidates. And, Trump’s January 6th speech should be protected free speech. What the Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine Secretary of State decisions shows is that there are good and strong legal arguments to apply Trump’s actions to the text of Section 3 and bar him from 2024 primary ballots. Without these key findings made by the Colorado Supreme Court and Sec. Bellows, other states could simply decline to address the issue in their own states or even determine falsely that Trump was not responsible for some of the actions he is being accused of. Colorado and Maine have taken the first step toward accountability for a former President who refuses to be held accountable for trying to destabilize the democratic process, a crime that Section 3 was specifically written to prevent against.
It is the rule of law that is paramount in this country and both Colorado and Maine have demonstrated for all other states and the courts (even the Supreme Court where an appeal is likely) that an in – depth analysis of Trump’s actions shows that Section 3 can be applied to him to bar him from the ballot. LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE, LEARN MORE
Engagement Resources
- LawFare – map tracker of 14th Amendment Trump disqualification efforts and results.
- Vox – good informational website on the 14th Amendment disqualification efforts and the legal arguments for and against a ban on Trump’s 2024 candidacy.
- Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) – press release from non – profit group involved in the Colorado lawsuit.
This brief was compiled by Rod Maggay. If you have comments or want to add the name of your organization to this brief, please contact rodwood@email.com.
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A Wave of Congressional Departures on the Eve of a Highly Contested Election
A Wave of Congressional Departures on the Eve of a Highly Contested Election
Elections & Politics Policy Brief #115 | By: William Bourque | December 28, 2023
Photo taken from: www.democracydocket.com
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In the turmoil of the past year, a historic number of Members of Congress have decided to leave their posts at the end of their terms. Many are seeking election to other offices, but the majority are simply retiring from the body. A lack of bipartisanship and overall sense that Congress just doesn’t get enough done is what is pushing many long-serving lawmakers out the door. One, of course, has already left the ranks, with Rep. George Santos (NY-03) being expelled in late November. Many of the members that are stepping down wielded significant power and authority in both chambers, and it will be incredibly interesting to see who fills that hole.
In the House, where far more members are taking flight, a vacuum on the right has opened up. The biggest absence is former speaker Kevin McCarthy, who will be leaving his post at the end of the year. House GOP sources said that McCarthy was unbearable as a rank-and-file member, clearly frustrated with having to sit and hold the same power as those who pushed him out of his speakership. McCarthy’s seat should be a safe Republican one, so he isn’t leaving his party in a crucial district. The ceding of power to the far right didn’t sit well with many other senior members, like interim speaker and Kevin McCarthy ally Patrick McHenry. McHenry was also the chair of the House Financial Services Committee, where he was one of the leaders in crypto regulation. He leaves behind a 20-year tenure in the House where he was, at one point, seen as a possible candidate for Speaker.
On the Democratic side, several Californian’s are vacating their seats to run for Senator—Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee, and Katie Porter are all vying for the Democratic nomination. Polls currently have Schiff with a slight lead over Porter, with Lee trailing both significantly. Also leaving the body from California is Representative Anna Eshoo, who is retiring after serving for 30 years. Her seat is considered a safe D seat and an open primary will take place in March to determine who will be running for the seat in November.
There are also a few members who are leaving to pursue municipal or statewide offices, with some notable ones being Abigail Spanberger (D-VA-7), Mike Braun (R-IN), and Jeff Jackson (D-NC-14). Spanberger, 44, is running for Governor in Virginia. She is running against Richmond Mayor LeVar Stoney for the Democratic nomination. Stoney has faced recent criticism in Richmond after a proposed casino, backed by Stoney, failed for the second time at the ballot box. Mike Braun, in Indiana, is facing off against Jennifer McCormick, a former state superintendent. Polls from August indicate Braun should win by double-digits. Jackson, a one-term lawmaker who rose to beltway fame via TikTok videos, was gerrymandered out of his district, prompting him to attempt a return to the statehouse as Attorney General. He faces several strong challenges in one of our races to watch next fall.
Sheila Jackson-Lee (TX-18) left office to run for Mayor of Houston, but has since filed for re-election following a loss. Jackson-Lee is known amongst House staffers for being an unforgiving and abrasive boss, often under fire for berating staff for no reason at all. She will likely be re-elected given the Texas gerrymander, but don’t be surprised to see a primary challenge. Also in Texas, Representative Allred is leaving his seat to run for Senate, challenging Sen. Rafael “Ted” Cruz. This race is likely to be closer than anticipated, as Cruz’s popularity in Texas has waned since he left the state for Cancun in the midst of disaster. Ken Buck, a freedom caucus member from Colorado, is also leaving, citing the inability of the body to make key decisions. Buck’s district will be a safe red seat in 2024.
This number of individuals leaving elected office to make headway in other offices or retire altogether is relatively unheard of. Many say that they are sick of the lack of legislation passed—while many in Republican circles say the infighting is what has driven them out. When Patrick McHenry and Kevin McCarthy first entered Congress, the Republican party was a much different party than we see today. Of course, McCarthy’s pride is what is really hurt here—no matter how much he categorically denies it. For others, the pursuit of higher office makes sense—the three Californian’s are all looking to cement their own legacies by capturing a Senate seat. But some are getting out of politics altogether, rare in a town where people grasp for power at every chance. As we enter the new year, look our for new faces emerging in key districts—as Democrats look to retake the House in what is due to be one of the most fearsome elections of all-time.
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An Interview About the Conflict with a Retired Israeli Brigadier-General
An Interview About the Conflict with a Retired Israeli Brigadier-General
Foreign Policy Brief #109 | By: Ester Avisror | December 28, 2023
Photo: Our reporter, Ester Avisror, and retired IDF Brigadier-General Arie Tsidon seated across from each other.
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Retired Brigadier-General of the Israel Defense Forces, Arie Tsidon, was a prominent Senior Commander of Charuv and of Paratroopers Patrols, and served in the IDF for 25 years. Recently, I had the chance for an up-close and personal interview with him about some of his views on the war with Hamas.
The following are some highlights from Ester’s interview with retired Israeli soldier Arie Tsidon. All answers are purely opinion, based on his own experiences, and have been formatted to account for clarity and length.
Q: What are your views of the conflict? A: “This is not a simple answer because the matter is very complicated. I grew up in Haifa where many Arabs live, and my attitude towards them was acceptance. It doesn’t matter where they come from, they live in a very similar culture. My opinion is that whoever is a human, we have to treat them as one, and whoever wants to fight you, needs to be killed. On the 7th of October, the Old Soldier awakened in me, and I was horrified by all these brutal murders and inhuman acts on children, women, and the elderly, and now, we must take care of the situation in the toughest manner possible.”
Q: Is the goal of elimination of Hamas attainable? A: “I am not sure; because an absolute solution for the Arabs is what Asad did with Syria: You have gunshots with your opposition, you kill everyone, and those not killed become refugees in America, Europe, Canada, etc.; the city becomes empty. We are not fit to do such things because in Gaza, we do not want all civilians killed and nothing to be there. Also, I am not sure it is attainable because Hamas started as a charity organization in Gaza – opening schools, clinics, and cared for food and the human side of the poor society which is stuck there. Building this infrastructure helped Hamas purchase the audience of this region. Hamas also bought its audience against the corruption of Fatah politicians (Fatah is the ruling political party in the West Bank) who took all the money to their accounts in many places. As a result, Hamas has a place in many civilians hearts.”
Q: If the goal is attainable, then how, and how long will it take? A: “Although it is difficult to fight in Gaza, with underground tunnels with a million exits, the IDF has developed and built an advanced and more suitable fighting method focused on the use of armored tanks. Today the IDF also is shutting, bombing, or blocking all tunnels with materials like cement and others. This could take half a year or more to complete.”
Q: How will Gaza rebuild and be governed once the fighting is over? A: “We need to sit, perhaps with the help of United States, and some European Countries, together with Egypt, King of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates and tell them — see at the end of things, what the terrorism does to civilians disturbs you too, not just us. An Association of these countries needs to be established to help rebuild and manage Gaza.”
Check out usrenewnews.org/israel-hamas for more coverage, differing views and analysis of this conflict. Get the latest updates from our reporters by subscribing to the U.S. Resist Democracy Weekly Newsletter, and please consider contributing to Keeping Democracy Alive by donating today! We depend on support from readers like you.
Why Was Santos Expelled and What Happens Now?
Why Was Santos Expelled and What Happens Now?
Elections & Politics Policy Brief #114 | By: Arvind Salem | December 27, 2023
Photo taken from: www.truthout.org
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Policy Summary:
On December 1st, George Santos became just the 6th member of Congress to ever be expelled, and only the third since the Civil War. Amid growing scrutiny ever since he entered Congress, few would have thought his offenses would reach a level warranting expulsion, especially since the standard for that has historically been actively supporting an insurrection or being convicted of a serious crime like bribery. However, as investigations were conducted in Santos’s past, it became abundantly clear that he met this standard and was a compulsive liar, even for a politician.
Initially heralded by Republicans for his victory in NY-03 in a district that Biden carried, contributing to the Republican’s razor-thin House majority, Santos quickly faced scrutiny for lies he told on the campaign trail. In particular, the New York Times reported that Santos lied about where he went to college and working for Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, both of which Santos later admitted were false assertions.
Once reporters started examining Santos’s record, they uncovered violations of campaign finance laws, prompting the Campaign Legal Center and the Political Action Committee End Citizens United to both call for the Federal Elections Commission to investigate Santos. During this time Brazilian authorities reopened an investigation on Santos’s use of a stolen checkbook, which previously ended due to the authorities being unable to locate Santos. The mystery behind Santos’s background was prompting national scrutiny, yet Santos remained adamant that the most heinous accusations were false and that he planned to serve out his term amid early calls to resign.
Santos’s various scandals prompted the House Ethics committee to investigate Santos for his conduct during his 2022 election campaign, violating federal conflict of interest laws, and sexual misconduct. Eventually the report from this investigation would end up damning Santos and leading to his expulsion.
Beyond merely ethical violations and lies on the campaign trail, Santos was now attracting serious legal attention: federal prosecutors filed 13 charges against Santos (consisting mainly of wire fraud and money laundering). Santos pleaded not guilty to these charges, yet one of Santos’s campaign staffers pleaded guilty to conspiring with Santos to commit wire fraud, prompting a new federal indictment superseding the original one, which now accuses him of stealing the identities of campaign donors and using their credit cards, essentially embezzling money from his Congressional campaign.
The nail in the coffin for Santos was the House Ethics Committee’s report, which concluded that “Representative Santos sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit. “The report outlined how Santos stole from his campaign, deceived donors, and lied about his campaign finances. The Committee referred all of their evidence to the Justice Department, and it is extremely possible that the evidence will be used as ammunition for future prosecutions.
In the end, the vote to expel was 311-114, clearing the two-thirds majority required. House Republican leaders opposed removing Santos, as his expulsion would damage their already razor-thin majority, but 105 GOP lawmakers sided with nearly every Democrat to expel him.
Policy Analysis:
For Santos’s part, despite his legal troubles, he has recovered from his expulsion quite nicely: at least financially. Shortly after his expulsion, Santos joined the celebrity shout-out app Cameo. Cameo allows people to pay for a celebrity/influencer to record a custom message. This app has allowed Santos to capitalize on his previous cultural and political relevance since people are still willing to pay money for him to record funny messages. Politicians aren’t beyond using Santos for this purpose either, Senator John Fetterman paid Santos to record a message with advice for “ethically challenged” Senator Bob Menendez. With his growing popularity, Santos now charges $500 a message, yet has no shortage of buyers. He surpassed his $174,000 yearly Congressional salary within a week of joining the site.
As for Santos’s vacant seat, Governor Kathy Hochul announced on December 5th that the special election will occur on Tuesday, February 13, 2024. Since this is a special election, the party leadership selects the candidates directly rather than through a traditional primary. Democrats selected Tom Suozzi, who was a previous House member from this district, yet did not run in the House election last cycle, opting instead to run for Governor, where he lost in the Democratic primary to current governor Kathy Hochul. Republican candidate Mazi Pilip served in the Nassau County Legislature, and was born in Ethiopia before being evacuated to Israel due to a Civil War, where she completed her education, serving in the Israeli Defense Forces, before immigrating to the U.S. in 2005. The race is expected to be competitive and is categorized as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. Of course, this race will be watched very closely due to its national implications for party control in the House, especially since 3 Republican House members have announced upcoming resignations.
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Engagement Resources
- Mazi Pilip for Congress: Mazi Pilip is the Republican candidate running in Santos’s district in the special election. Readers who supported Santos’s policies but not his character may wish to explore this candidate.
- Tom Suozzi for Congress: Tom Suozzi is the Democratic candidate running in Santos’s district in the special election. Readers who disagreed with Santos’s policies may wish to support this candidate in the election.
- Campaign Legal Center: The Campaign Legal Center is a nonpartisan organization that fights for a fair political process. They were one of the groups scrutinizing Santos, and readers interested in their mission and that work may wish to explore this organization.
Get the latest updates from our reporters by subscribing to the U.S. Resist Democracy Weekly Newsletter, and please consider contributing to Keeping Democracy Alive by donating today! We depend on support from readers like you.
Can You Trust AI News? The Risks of Automated Journalism
Can You Trust AI News? The Risks of Automated Journalism
Technology Policy Brief #105 | By: Mindy Spatt | December 26, 2023
Photo taken from: www.rollingstone.com
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THE RANKS OF TRADITIONAL NEWS MEDIA HAS SHRUNK in the Internet age as news became easily available for free or at low cost online. Now that artificially created news content can be had for the taking will it become a go-to source for media and cause newsrooms to disappear altogether?
Analysis
My first experience with ChatGPT was asking it a version of the question above. I received a very bland and reassuring answer with just a tad of an ominous warning tacked onto the end. “While AI may automate certain aspects of journalism, it’s unlikely to replace journalists entirely. AI can assist in tasks like data analysis and content generation, but human intuition, ethics, and the ability to tell compelling stories remain essential. Journalists may need to adapt their skills to work alongside AI tools….”
My second question: How accurate is news created by AI? “The accuracy of news generated by AI largely depends on the quality of the underlying algorithms and the training data used,” the chatbot explained. “While AI can efficiently summarize information, it may still face challenges in interpreting context, bias or understanding nuanced details.” I was impressed with this humble tone. The response also warned that “It’s crucial to rely on reputable sources for critical news.” But how do I know if ChatGPT is getting its information from a reputable source?
According to Newsguard, a media misinformation watchdog, websites masquerading as news sites are finding it easier and easier to push out AI generated content to growing audiences. In a press release announcing its new AI Tracking Center, NewsGuard co-CEO Steven Brill said “…AI-generated ‘news’ websites are akin to the misinformation-spreading Macedonian content farms from a few years ago, with the distinction that these new sites cost even less to produce and can become even more prolific with the enhancements of artificial intelligence.”
At launch earlier this year the tracker featured 150 sites deemed unreliable. At latest count (Dec. 18), that number was 614, and included sites in Arabic, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, English, French, German, Indonesian, Italian, Korean, Portuguese, Spanish, Tagalog, Thai, and Turkish.
According to Newsguard, the offending websites often have generic names, such as iBusiness Day, Ireland Top News, and Daily Time Update, which obscure that they are created with “little to no human oversight” and publishing content “written largely or entirely by bots.”
In addition to being unsourced, the chatbot’s response to my question failed to reference or acknowledge industry concerns or trends. The Writer’s Guild is certainly worried; their new contract, won after a grueling 148 day strike, contains robust AI protections, including that studios will not be able to use generative AI to write or rewrite literary material and AI-generated content cannot be used as source material.
It is hard to gauge how deep AI’s inroads into newsrooms will be, but here too things are moving quickly. The New York Times, one of many news outlets that have blocked their content from ChatGPT, recently hired an editorial director of artificial-intelligence initiatives with the goal of learning “how we do and do not use generative AI.”
Axel Springer, the publisher of Business Insider and Politico, just announced a very high-profile deal in which ChatGPT will be allowed to summarize its content for users, who, using the free chatbot, will be able to access material otherwise blocked by a paywall with links to full articles.
Perhaps that deal was already in the works when Springer CEO Mathias Dopfner warned, in March 2023, that AI would be better at aggregating information than humans. The role of journalists, he said, would be to understand people’s ‘true motives.’ “Only those who create the best original content will survive,” Dopfner predicted. That sounds an awful lot like what the chatbot said, doesn’t it?
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Engagement Resources
- Writers Guild Wins Protections Against Artificial Intelligence By: Tom Jones and Angela Fu, September 28, 2023
- Tracking AI-enabled Misinformation: 614 ‘Unreliable AI-Generated News’ Websites (and Counting), Plus the Top False Narratives Generated by Artificial Intelligence Tools
Get the latest updates from our reporters by subscribing to the U.S. Resist Democracy Weekly Newsletter, and please consider contributing to Keeping Democracy Alive by donating today! We depend on support from readers like you.
What Do the Argentinian and Dutch Elections Mean for the United States?
What Do the Argentinian and Dutch Elections Mean for the United States?
Foreign Policy Brief #108 | By: Arvind Salem | December 26, 2023
Javier Milei & Geert Wilder: Photo by Indy Silva
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Policy Summary:
It’s not often that political observers look to international elections to forecast outcomes in the U.S. presidential elections, yet wins from populist candidates Javier Milei in Argentina and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands are giving political observers on the left in the United States cause for alarm, especially coupled with Trump’s consistent advantage in the polls, especially in key swing states.
To start with the more famous of the two cases, Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina to become the country’s new President eerily resembles the very same themes that Trump himself rode to victory in 2016. Milei, a Libertarian economist with no government experience, won the decisive run-off round 56% to 44% against Sergio Massa, his left-wing opponent, on the back of railing against the “political elite” and campaigning on aggressively cutting back government spending. Despite his aggressive language, observers quickly noted that his party doesn’t have a majority in Argentina’s Congress, which will force him to work with the political elite he often disparaged. This is not to say that Milei’s election is completely inconsequential: in just one month he closed and merged several industries, reducing Argentina’s cabinet from18 to 9 in an effort to curb government spending. Highlighting the Trumpian nature of his proposed policies, President Trump himself celebrated Milei’s victory, saying that Milei would “Make Argentina Great Again”.
Yet while Milei’s victory was expected, the surprising part was the margin, Geert Wilders’s election was completely unexpected. If Milei mirrors Trump economically, Wilder made his name by mirroring Trump’s policies socially. Although far from an outsider, Wilder set up his own anti-migrant Freedom Party, known as the PVV in Dutch and has been a fixture in Dutch politics since he was elected to Parliament in 1998, Wilder has many populist policies, especially being fiercely anti-Islamic and anti-migrant. He has advocated for the “de-Islamization” of the Netherlands and has said that he wants no mosques or Islamic schools in the country. His current victory has been propelled by a strong anti-migrant stance, especially as the previous government coalition was forced to resign since they couldn’t deal with excessive immigration. In his party’s election manifesto it says that the Netherlands has, “has been seriously weakened due the ongoing asylum tsunami and mass immigration”. His signature proposals have to do with foreign policy, an area inextricably linked to immigration and asylum, calling for a binding referendum on leaving the European Union, for the Netherlands to withdraw from international climate obligations, and for the Netherlands to stop sending aid to Ukraine. It is worthy to note that Wilder is not guaranteed to secure the Prime Minister job, since his party is expected to win 37 seats, which is short of the 76 needed to secure a majority. In Dutch politics, many parties form a “governing coalition”, who elects the Prime Minister, so Wilder needs to secure the support of other parties to become Prime Minister. This system acts as a moderating force, making it very possible that Wilder doesn’t secure the top position. However, regardless of whether Wilder ends up being Prime Minister, his party has seen a surge in popularity: winning 37 seats this cycle, the most of any party, compared to 17 seats last election, an unmistakable trend towards the far-right.
Policy Analysis:
Pragmatically, the election of Milei is not a bad thing for the United States. Amid concerns that Argentina, the second biggest economy in South America, is turning more towards China, Milei’s Anti-Communist viewpoints make it clear that he is not keen on close ties with China beyond what is absolutely necessary. He has also made it clear that he seeks to form closer ties with the United States and Israel. Additionally, his signature economic policy of transitioning away from the peso and towards the U.S. dollar is a good thing for the United States, since our economic dominance is largely predicated on the fact that the U.S. dollar is such a widely used reserve currency. An economy of this size that is looking to transition to the U.S. dollar is especially valuable given the fact that foreign rivals such as China and Russia are looking to transition away from the dollar, most notably Russia is spearheading a new currency for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to use instead of the dollar.
As for worries about Milei’s populist appeal, observers ignore the fact that the appeal of “trust me because the previous establishment failed” only works once, which is why when Trump tried to make that same appeal in 2020 it didn’t work. Milei’s election now and Trump’s election in 2016 was a bet on a new way of thinking in the face of economic stagnation. And for Milei, his libertarian policies are quickly wreaking havoc on the economy: inflation, the very problem that Milei campaigned on fixing, is actually increasing ever since he came into office. This is due to the fact that the previous government had implemented a complex set of currency controls and consumer subsidies to artificially raise the peso’s value and keep the prices low, however with Milei’s libertarian approach, he rolled back these measures and Argentina is now paying the price. He is characterizing these woes as short-term ills that are necessary for Argentina’s economic revival, and only time will tell if he’s right, but so far his policies have been milder than promised and his extreme measures have failed. If anything, this election could provide valuable ammunition for why these types of policies don’t work. In fact, Trump himself likely doesn’t agree with some of these libertarian policies, considering one of his key promises in 2016 was instituting protectionism as a response to NAFTA, which is opposite of Milei’s promises of unshackling the economy through ending protectionism and promising free trade.
As for Wilder, while his election represents a rise in far-right sentiment, the only reason he is even close to being Prime Minister is due to the Dutch political system’s feature of coalition governments. If Wilder was in a two-party system like the United States, given the fact that he doesn’t control around 75% of the government, it is clear that these attitudes still do not possess majority support. Additionally, although Wilder’s better performance this cycle than last is worrying, it fails to account for the fact that anti-Islamic sentiment is at an all-time high due to the conflicts between Israel and Hamas, meaning that this time is likely the most effective this type of messaging will ever be and Wilder’s popularity should subside in later elections.
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Engagement Resources:
- Joe Biden for President: Those who are concerned about the far-right populist sentiment in other countries and seek to avoid those types of policies being realized in the United States, should consider exploring this campaign.
- Asylum Seekers Advocacy Project: This organization advocates for the rights of asylum seekers in the United States. Readers worried about anti-asylum sentiment abroad and want to stop its spread to the United States should consider exploring this organization.
- FAIR: FAIR, the Federation for American Immigration Reform, is a nonpartisan, public-interest organization that seeks to evaluate policies and develop solutions to reduce the impact of excessive immigration on all facets of the nation including security, the economy, and healthcare. Readers who want to consider immigration in the United States after seeing Dutch struggles with the issue may be interested in this organization.