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By Linda F. Hersey

October 21, 2020

Presidential Campaign Update is an occasional series of Briefs on the US 2020 presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump

President Donald Trump’s recent comments to the press about what his next move will be if he loses the presidency to Democrat Joe Biden underscores the nervousness of the Trump team just days before the Election.

“Could you imagine if I lose?” Trump said at a campaign stop in Georgia, Politico reported. “My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say, ‘I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.’ I’m not going to feel so good. Maybe I’ll have to leave the country. I don’t know.”

The most recent national polls show Biden in the lead but Trump gaining ground in battleground states.

Real Clear Politics released on Oct. 20 an average of national polls that gives Biden an eight-point advantage over Trump.  The average gives Biden 51.1 percent and Trump 42.5, with the remainder voting for a third party candidate or undecided.

Those polls were done between Oct. 6 and Oct. 19 by the following organizations: Investor’s Business Daily, New York Times, JTN/RMG Research, the Economist, The Hill, Reuters, National Public Radio,  USC Dornsife Presidential Election Poll, NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Rasmussen Reports.

Each of those polls gave Biden the advantage. The election is far from being called. If 2016 is an indicator, the polls four years later could be off again, as they were in predicting that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump.

In key battleground states in2020, the race has narrowed, according to the most recent polling data by state, with Trump gaining ground over Biden, and undecided voters having a bigger role in deciding the outcome.  Here is a quick look at the most recent polling results in five key states and where the candidates rank as Election Day nears.

  • Florida: Biden maintains a narrow lead over Trump, with a University of North Florida poll showing the candidates as Biden, 48.3 percent; Trump, 47.3. The poll was released Tuesday, Oct. 20. The poll was conducted from Oct. 12-Oct. 16. Florida is considered a swing state.
  • North Carolina: Biden also has a one-point lead over Trump in North Carolina, according to a poll by the Washington Post and ABC News conducted from Oct. 7-Oct. 17. According to the website Real Clear Politics, Biden averages a 2-point lead over Trump, based on five key polls that the news site examined: the Washington Post-ABC News, the New York Times, Emerson College Polling, Monmouth University and Reuters. “There has been some shifting within the electorate but the overall picture remains the same – another tight presidential contest in North Carolina,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, in a press release issued by the university.
  • Arizona: An Arizona poll by CBS News, in partnership with YouGov, conducted from Oct. 13-Oct. 16, awards Biden a three-point lead in the presidential race.
  • Ohio: Biden has a narrow two-point lead in Ohio, according to Rasmussen Reports. A telephone and online survey was released Tuesday, Oct. 20, for Ohio, which historically votes Republican. The poll was conducted on Oct. 18 and Oct. 19.
  • Wisconsin: Biden has a two-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin, according to the Trafalgar Group, which gives Biden, 47.6 percent, over Trump, at 46.3 percent. The poll was conducted between Oct. 14 and Oct. 16.

 

Resistance Resources

Politico: The political news website offers comprehensive national reporting on Washington, D.C., politics and policymaking.

Real Clear Politics: The political news website has a thorough look at the most recent polling in national campaigns, including the race for president.

Rasmussen Reports: National polling company that surveys voters and also looks at consumer confidence.

Emerson College Polling : According to the polling company, Emerson Polling “uses a combination of landline respondents and online panels that creates a representative artificial sample.”

American Association for Public Opinion Research: The nonprofit helps journalists and public understand the polling process and polls.

Investor’s Business Daily: The news company, which covers business and the economy, is predicting a tight election for president.

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