President Biden Drops Out, Vice President Harris Moves In

Elections & Politics Policy Brief #134 | By: Arvind Salem| July 25, 2024

Featured Photo: www.wpr.org

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President Biden, on July 21st,  ended his candidacy for re-election stepping down and then endorsing Vice President Harris for the nomination, although the convention is technically open and anyone can win the nomination. Biden promises to address the nation later this week to further explain his dramatic decision.

Biden withdrew over concerns about his mental acuity and repeated polls showing that he was down nationally and that he could drag down-ballot candidates down with him if he remained on the ticket.  His poor performance in the debate, a disappointing follow up interview, and continued gaffes,  resulted in a cascade of Democratic donors, party insiders, and even grassroots voters calling for Biden’s resignation. Some were so concerned   there was  speculation about forcing Biden out even with his pledged delegates.

The Democratic party since this withdrawal, has lauded Biden for making the right decision. Yet that leaves the party in disarray just over 3 months until Election Day. Mobilizing the infrastructure and political momentum to beat Donald Trump when he is at his strongest, and the Democratic Party is close to their weakest, will be  difficult regardless of the new nominee. If this nominee doesn’t work out, there is no time to replace them.

Analysis:

Vice President Harris has access to the Biden campaign’s millions of dollars in funding, which could prove to be a huge advantage. Additionally, Harris has significant experience as vice-president and has been tested on a national stage, which some other possible replacements (the governors) have not been. Harris also has the advantage of the public backing of Rep Jim Clyburn, who has acted as a kingmaker for the Democratic party, since his support for Biden was crucial in his 2020 primary win.

Extremely strong candidates, such as Governors Whitmer and Newsom, have publicly stated they wouldn’t contest the nomination even if Biden stepped aside. They then publicly endorsed Vice President Harris. A bevy of governors also threw their support behind Harris, including some that were viewed as possible candidates themselves: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Maryland Governor Wes, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker,  Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (Minn.), Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers. Voices at the top rung of the party have also endorsed Harris, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Clintons. Notably, President Obama hasn’t yet endorsed Harris, but it is widely thought that is because he is against intervening in the nomination process by principle, rather than having reservations against Harris. Some of those who endorsed Harris, chiefly Andy Beshear and Josh Shapiro, are viewed as strong picks for vice-president.

According to polls  Harris is making up ground relative to Biden against Donald Trump, but Trump is still ahead. There is huge variance in these polls, and they tested Harris as a hypothetical nominee, whereas now she is the presumptive nominee. Those polls clearly show that Harris has the potential to beat Trump, whereas Biden towards the end had essentially no chance. The views on Harris tend to be less concrete, meaning she has a lower floor, but a higher ceiling than Biden, and that these next few months will be crucial in shaping her image. This switch also takes away the Republicans chief criticism of the Democrats, which was Biden’s senility, and resets the news cycle to focus on Harris rather than the favorable news coverage towards Trump (Biden’s poor debate performance, failed assisination attempt, and pressure on Biden to withdraw). Harris’s candidacy is also re-energizing the party: she raised a record 81 million in the first 24 hours of her candidacy.

Engagement Resources:

• Harris for President: Readers interested in donating or otherwise supporting Harris’s campaign for President can go to this site to get involved.
• ActBlue: ActBlue allows people to donate to a host of Democratic organizations, candidates, and causes. Readers who want to support the whole Democratic party can visit this website to learn more.

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