2026 Democratic Primary Preview Series: Indiana | Nate Iglehart | 2/5/2026
Indiana can be considered a relatively safe Republican stronghold. Both the senators from the state are Republicans, and only 2 of the 9 representatives are Democrats. This year, neither Senator Todd Young nor Senator Jim Banks are up for election, but the house is a different story. All nine seats are up for grabs in theory, although most seats are drawn in a way that all but ensures the current party makeup from changing. That didn’t stop President Donald Trump from trying, however, as late last year he urged the state of Indiana to redraw its congressional districts to unseat incumbent Democrats Frank Mrvan of the 1st district and André Carson of the 7th district. Despite a Republican-supermajority in the Senate, a Trump vow to primary Republican holdouts, and anonymous bomb threats, the measure failed and the maps remained unchanged.
The state has fared pretty well over the past few years. It boasts a relatively low cost of living and a low cost of doing business, as well as having a low state-level amount of debt. However, it has ranked increasingly poorly in areas such as net migration, public health, and environmental safety. Those latter two issues have generally played slightly better for Democrats, but even then, most districts outside of the 1st and 7th lean red by hefty margins. That being said, if the special election in Texas was indeed a canary in the coal mine, there are a couple of districts that could be up for grabs. The primary elections will take place on May 5, 2026, with the general elections on November 3.
For starters, those 1st and 7th will more than likely remain safe Democrat seats, with Mrvan and Carson both popular, well funded, and in blue districts. While the Cook Political; Report places all seven Republican districts as safely Red, I think that the race in the 5th district, represented by Republican Victoria Spartz since 2021, is a flippable seat. The district is only +8 for Republicans, and while the funding gap is sizable, funding alone may not save a candidate with only one term under her belt and a blue wave looking increasingly likely. Out of the 9 races, these are the names to look out for:
- District 1: Frank Mrvan
- District 2: Jamie Decio
- District 3: Phil Goss and Kelly Thompson
- District 4: Drew Cox
- District 5: Jackson Franklin and Deborah Pickett
- District 6: Cinde Wirth and Raymond Alt
- District 7: André Carson and George Hornedo
- District 8: Mary Allen
- District 9: Jim Graham and Tim Peck
Most Competitive Districts for Democrats
The most competitive districts for Democrats in Indiana include Indiana’s 1st Congressional District (IN-1) and its 5th Congressional District (IN-5). The 1st was widely considered a battleground district in 2024, and while Mrvan has gained ground each election, it is still seen as only a blue district by 1 percentage point. Perhaps time and Mrvan’s popularity will keep it blue, given its urban makeup and location close to Chicago. Democrats know this is an important seat to hold, given the million dollars they’ve helped Mrvan raise, and local pundits don’t think the seat will change red. A good defense here will be a reassuring win for Democrats across the state.
The other competitive district, Indiana’s 5th Congressional District (IN-5), is one where Democrats can go on the offensive instead. Incumbent Republican Victoria Spartz is popular but not wildly so, the district only leans red by 8 points, and some of her challengers have good experience running here. This district encompasses much of the northern suburbs of Indianapolis, including the cities of Carmel, Noblesville, and Fishers, while other population centers include Muncie, Kokomo, Anderson, and Marion. The district is predominantly white and is the wealthiest congressional district in Indiana, as measured by median income. For the Democrats, leaning on Trump’s endorsement of Spartz is a good move, alongside hitting her on her high staff turnover and allegations of a difficult working environment. Spartz also has pushed for fiscal responsibility, and her inability to reign in government spending is a notable weak point on her resume. While it is unlikely, if the Democrats were to flip a seat in the state, it would almost certainly have to be this one.
Most Competitive Indiana Democrats in 2026
Frank Mrvan: IN-1
Frank Mrvan, 56, is the incumbent representative for this district since 2021. Previously, he served as a mortgage broker and pharmaceutical sales representative, before entering politics in 2005 as the township trustee for North Township, Indiana. During his time in Congress, he has sought to protect reproductive healthcare, grow the regional economy, and protect the steel industry. Mrvan also serves as the Vice-Chairman of the Congressional Steel Caucus and is a member of the House Appropriations Committee. This election cycle, his platform has not changed much. Mrvan wants to protect reproductive healthcare, grow the local economy, protect public education, protect laborers, and lower healthcare costs. His focus on the labor and manufacturing industries in this district, which encompasses Gary, Indiana, as well as almost all of the Indiana side of the Chicago metropolitan area, is a good move. As a result of this makeup, the district leans heavily blue, and has not elected a Republican representative in almost a century. Mrvan’s $1,419,470 war chest will certainly also help him overcome whatever Republican candidate wins the primary. Additionally, his strong party-line voting record and high participation in Congress mean he will not lack support from Democrats in a Democrat-heavy district. It is almost certain that Mrvan will win the primary and the general election, barring some major news.
Recent Interviews:
Regionally Speaking | US Congressman Frank Mrvan | From the Region to Capitol Hill
- D. Ford: IN-5
J.D. Ford entered the Indiana Statehouse in 2018, flipping a long-held red district in the process. So far, his focuses have been on affordability, healthcare, and equality. The last point is particularly important to Ford, as he is Indiana’s first and currently only openly LGBTQ+ state legislator. He sits on many committees: Education and Career Development, Elections, Ethics, Family and Children Services, Health and Provider Services, Local Government, and Rules and Legislative Procedures. All of this legislative experience is his only professional experience, following his bachelor’s in criminal justice and political science and his master’s degree in education from Purdue University Northwest. His focus will play well in this district, where its wealthier suburban voters are more tuned into national trends. Ford’s funding numbers aren’t available yet, but if he is able to gain ground quickly, he can become the favorite in this district and look to upset Spartz.
Deborah Pickett: IN-5
A former Army reservist and policy researcher, Deborah Pickett is also looking to unseat Spartz in this district. Pickett earned a bachelor’s degree from Skidmore College in 1981, and her career experience includes working as a community advocate and researcher with the Center for Integrative Development and the Hudson Institute. Much of the research experience revolved around education projects before shifting to trade policy and international economic studies. All of this experience has crafted a Democrat with a very moderate and well-researched platform. Alongside defending democracy, government welfare, and the environment, Pickett is heavily focused on investing in a well-trained and well-equipped military that works to protect the strong trade and humanitarian alliances Pickett wants the U.S. to engage in. This may end up being a bit of a gamble. With affordability a big issue, she seems to sideline it a bit, and while that is less of an issue with a richer district, it signals a focus more on policies that benefit the nation and not primarily the district. If voters think she will forget about them, they may not back her. This, combined with a paltry $6,645 raised so far means she has an uphill battle. But her military focus will likely play well with some disillusioned Republicans and independents, and Democrats will likely vote for her nonetheless in a general election. If she manages to win the primary, Pickett would be in a solid spot to make this a tight race.
Jackson Franklin: IN-5
Jackson Franklin is a Staff Sergeant in the Indiana Army National Guard, having served as a combat medic since 2019 and deployed to Kosovo in 2023. After the military, Franklin worked as an EMT and as a policy advisor for many local campaigns. But now he wants to emulate his idol, Bernie Sanders, and is pushing for a progressive vision of the country. His platform hits many of the hallmarks of a progressive: universal right to housing, universal healthcare, universal basic income, nationalizing the pharmaceutical and fossil fuel industries, protecting democracy, legalizing cannabis, and taxing the rich. This will be a fascinating race to watch if Franklin wins the primary, because it will be a true test of progressivism in a red district. But for the primary, he will have a bit of work to do. He already has raised $16,778, more than Pickett, but his youth at 25-years-old and his lack of true government experience will make many older voters hesitate. Plus, progressivism in a red district is a big risk. However, the fact that he raised that much money without corporate donors is a testament to some level of local support. Additionally, while many voters will be turned away by his talk of nationalizing industries, his focus on universal services could still be appealing in a district that is wealthier than average but not rich. With Ford taking the standard establishment route and Pickett taking the moderate route, Franklin’s progressive path will provide a great lab for Democratic planners to look at how popular these policies are.
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates & races at all levels:
- Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness:
- The Indiana Capital Chronicle is an independent, nonprofit news organization focused specifically on state government, policy, and elections: Indiana Capital Chronicle