Announced Arkansas Democrat Senate Candidates: Ethan Dunbar and Hallie Shoffner
Announced Arkansas Democrat House Candidates: Terri Green, Zack Huffman, Chris Jones, Robb Ryerse, Steven O’Donnell, and James Russell
Arkansas is approaching an election season where five of its six congressional representatives are up for election. The current delegation consists of Republican Senators John Boozman and Tom Cotton, and Republican House Representatives Rick Crawford, French Hill, Steve Womack, and Bruce Westerman for districts 1-4 respectively. The only one not up for election is Boozman.
For the last 15 years, Arkansas has been represented in Congress exclusively by Republicans, and that is a grip that has tightened over the last decade. In the presidential elections, the state hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1996. But there is still support for Democrats in Arkansas; after all, Bill Clinton was once the governor of the The Natural State. Places like Little Rock and a handful of eastern counties voted blue in the most recent election, and Trump’s MAGA agenda may be starting to lose its appeal to rural voters after his embrace of Big Tech and tariffs that hurt American farmers.
Arkansas is a state dominated by white Americans and Christians, both of which are demographics that make up some 70% and 80% respectively of the population. But there is trouble brewing in the 3,045,637 person-strong state. Arkansas ranked 48th in a nationwide assessment of health care access, affordability, equity and outcomes, and while its population is still growing, the rate of its growth has slowed to around 1% as of 2022. Now, the economic outlook of the state has been rapidly improving over the past few years, and its ranking on this front has jumped between 5 and 13 places depending on which index is used. Agriculture dominates the economy, creating around $16 billion (or 8.5% of the state’s GDP) annually. The question now is how much longer this growth can continue, and how much goodwill this growth buys for the Republicans in power. The primary elections will take place on March 3, 2026, and in races where no candidate receives over 50%, runoff elections will take place on March 31, 2026.
Announced Senate Candidates
Ethan Dunbar, 61, is the current Lewisville mayor and a retired Command Sergeant Major, the highest enlisted rank in the Army. Raised in the small rural town of Lewisville, he served in the military for 33 years before being elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022 as the mayor of his hometown. His focuses as mayor were on infrastructure, housing opportunities, restoring civic pride, and leading with ethical Christian faith. Ethics and civility both are major themes of his Senate campaign, and in fact, he earned his PhD in Interdisciplinary Leadership from the University of Central Arkansas with a dissertation on the ethical leadership of elected officials. He is also very involved in community service organisations, such as the Democratic Party of Lafayette County, the Lafayette County Leadership Council, and the Lions Club International. With his military and religious background, and a history of public service focused on community, it is likely that his story will play well to voters, but his opponent is well-liked amongst the Republican party and especially the MAGA voter base.
Platform Priorities
- Respect, Civility, and Ethics: Holding leaders accountable and returning the political process to one focused on respect and cooperation
- Jobs and Rural Growth: Protecting Arkansas’ lithium and advanced manufacturing sectors, as well as providing support for small farms.
- Education and Healthcare: Protecting rural hospitals, preventing healthcare costs from rising, and growing support for schools and skilled trades.
Voter & Donor Support
No official donor support data is yet available, but he is a well connected Democrat in Arkansas. This will help in the primary, but Arkansas is a strong red state, and while he has the background that many Arkansas voters will like (retired soldier, religious, and an Arkansas native), his opponent is popular and checks many of the same boxes.
Why He Might Win
- His heavy emphasis on religion and Christianity may play well in a core state of the Bible Belt.
- As Trump’s popularity continues to decline, voters might be turned off by Tom Cotton and his embrace of MAGA issues such as CRT in schools.
- Ethics is an increasingly important value when it comes to leaders, and as corruption scandals and disrespectful politics expands in government, Dunbar’s focus on ethics may be a welcome stance for Arkansas voters.
Why He Might Lose
- Arkansas is a Republican stronghold, and while he has qualities that many might find admirable, there is still a team mentality in Arkansas politics (vote red, no matter who).
- His platform is heavy on rhetoric but light on more explicit policy moves
Key Election Variables
- How much a religious electorate wants a religious Senator
- With ACA subsidies expiring soon, healthcare might become a massive boon for candidates like Dunbar who are running lowering healthcare costs.
General Election Odds: Low
Primary Odds: Medium
Hallie Shoffner, 38, is a fellow Arkansas native who is focusing heavily on farmers and supporting local farms across the state. As a 6th generation farmer, she ran her family’s farm until it was forced to shut down in February due to high input costs and inadequate federal assistance. She is also the founder and CEO of Delta Harvest, which builds local food infrastructure and supports farmers with marketing and producing specialty goods like rice. Now she is turning her eyes towards Washington, wanting to fight the rigged system that she sees Republican incumbent Tom Cotton having bolstered over his 10-year tenure. With a focus on the trials and tribulations of rural farmers in Arkansas, and a promise to restore medicaid in a state suffering a crumbling healthcare system, she is looking to capitalize on the populism that seems to be spreading across American politics.
Platform Priorities
- Agricultural Support: Citing Cotton’s nay votes against the 2018 Farm Bill, she says that she will push for more federal support for farmers and try to lower costs across the board.
- Restoring Medicaid: Restoring Medicaid and saving social security are both major focuses of Shoffner, citing them often as an issue that hits rural citizens more than rich, urban citizens.
- Affordability: Between healthcare, food costs, and housing, Shoffner is focusing on lowering costs for Arkansas voters.
- Lowering the deficit: Once a constant Republican talking point, Shoffner has blasted Cotton’s “blowing up of the deficit” while normal people still suffer.
Voter & Donor Support
With her history of helping farmers, a massive Arkansas industry that has been feeling pain of late, it is likely that this will help her garner support across the state. She also has raised $663,452 as of September 30, a relatively small amount likely buoyed by individual donations.
Why She Might Win
- Despite having a small platform, it is focused on an industry that Arkansas prides and that she has actively worked to support. Recent elections like Mamdani’s NY win show that experience only matters so much, and having popular policies and great interpersonal skills matter a lot more.
- This also has likely led to far more exposure to far more people in Arkansas, which could lead to a huge bump in support.
- Populism is in vogue, and her background as a farmer pushing back against Cotton’s establishment stance may win over people disillusioned with how things are currently going.
Why She Might Lose
- Her Clinton-like background as a Democratic farmer from Arkansas is a bit risky, as Clinton’s popularity in the state is a bit of a mixed bag.
- Lack of experience still will matter to some, and her experience is far more concentrated on farms than in Senates.
- Her farm-focused platform may run into a hitch with Trump’s recent $12 billion aid package for American farmers, meaning voters may be more willing to vote for the status quo than they were a few months ago.
- Her platform has some explicit policy stances, but it still lacks a diversity that is important for attracting a broad coalition of voters.
Key Election Variables
- How much hurt farmers are feeling as November approaches.
- Whether or not ACA subsidies expire and how much healthcare in Arkansas deteriorates.
General Election Odds: Low
Primary Odds: Medium to High
Recent Interviews:
Hallie Shoffner talks farmers and challenging Sen. Tom Cotton | THV11+ Interview
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Announced House Candidates
District 1 – Terri Green
Terri Green, a retired pathologist in her 60s, has thrown her hat into the ring against incumbent Rick Crawford. With a progressive platform based on lifting up the poor and middle class, inclusion and tolerance for all, and fighting authoritarianism and facism, she is angling to be a minor test case for the progressive wing of Democrats. Having studied history and law at Baylor before going to medical school, her intelligence and work ethic can’t be questioned. She specialized in pathology before becoming a clinical laboratory director. Now, she wants to give voters in Arkansas a real choice between the status quo of Crawford and a new future under Green.
Platform Priorities
- Economic equality: She is leaning into the cost-of-living crisis as one that has only gotten worse under the Republican leadership of Arkansas, and wants to bring up the poor and middle classes.
- Human Rights: Green has seen the treatment of immigrants and the LGBTQ+ community by this administration as morally abhorrent, and she aims to return Arkansas’s 1st district seat to one filled with someone who protects human rights.
- Corruption and Oligarchy: She sees the values of transparency, equity, and inclusion and tolerance for all pillars of Democracy, and in taking no PAC money, Green wants to lead the charge against the tightening grip of politics that oligarchs and fascists have.
Voter & Donor Support
A relatively unknown name, and no PAC support both mean she is starting her campaign heavily on the back foot.
Why She Might Win
- She is a political outsider in Arkansas and the only competition to Crawford, meaning that anyone who has lost interest in Crawford will either not vote or turn to Green.
- Her policy policies will resonate with independents who see an increasingly authoritarian and corrupt administration in Washington.
- The potential size of the coming blue wave in 2026 could very well buoy her to a victory, as long as a few other dominos fall in her favor.
Why She Might Lose
- Practically no media presence yet, with a campaign page with grammatical errors show a lack of attention to detail that many voters are likely to notice.
- No government focus, and her medical background is not conducive for government work or endearing herself to rural Arkansas voters.
- Her opponent, Rick Crawford, is incredibly popular since his election in 2010 and even ran unopposed in 2020. This district is also the most red in the state, further cutting her chances of winning
- Lack of clear policy stances besides very general statements on affordability and morals in politics.
Key Election Variables
- How disillusioned voters could become with Crawford and Republicans.
General Election Odds: Extremely low
Primary Odds: Uncontested
District 2 – Zack Huffman and Chris Jones
Zack Huffman, 34, is a former elementary math teacher and a current Director of Development for Teach for America since 2018 who is coming from the Democratic stronghold city of Little Rock. Having studied public policy and leadership at the Clinton School of Public Service and the University of Mississippi, his focus is heavily on the little guy. Arkansas’ 2nd District is the least Republican in the state, and while it contains the capital of Little Rock, his background is one that comes from rural living and the challenges that come with that hard lifestyle. Much of his platform is focused on the main issues of the time: affordability, healthcare, and housing. But his opponent is one who is the definition of the status quo, and as time goes on, it seems increasingly possible that this district will flip blue.
Platform Priorities
- Education: As a teacher, his focus on equipping Arkansas schools and teachers with the best support to raise the next generation is a primary focus of his.
- Housing: Huffman believes that every person in Arkansas deserves a home and that everyone should have at least a pathway to homeownership.
- Food: His experience in elementary schools exposed him to the extent of child hunger in Arkansas, where some estimates say 1 in 4 children go to sleep hungry. He believes that hunger can be ended in Arkansas in a way that doesn’t break the budget.
- Healthcare: Rural hospitals and communities remain a primary political issue in Arkansas, and his emphasis on the “Grannies and Papaws” of those communities is grounded in ensuring that zip code doesn’t determine health outcomes.
Voter & Donor Support
As of September 30, Huffman has raised $6,301, a very meager sum. However, he will likely find a lot of support in Little Rock and the surrounding towns, despite the county still leaning red for the past few election cycles.
Why He Might Win
- In the least Republican Arkansas county, the best chance the state has in electing a Democrat lies here, and a potential blue wave in 2026 could push him past the post.
- His opponent, French Hill, has been hit with some controversy after misleading campaign ads.
Why He Might Lose
- Education isn’t a hot-button issue, so his background as a teacher may not carry him super far.
- His policy areas are relevant to Arkansas, but the depth of his policy plan leaves a lot to be desired.
- French Hill, while increasingly unpopular, is still a Republican incumbent in a safe Republican state who is now running for his 7th straight election win.
Key Election Variables
- His success relies heavily on riding a blue wave across Arkansas, and if Hill continues to slowly lose support.
- If education becomes a primary issue, then he will be in a prime position to capitalize. If not, his background will only do so much to bolster his electoral position.
General Election Odds: Low to medium
Primary Odds: Low to medium
Chris Jones, 45, is a pastor and scientist who ran a bold but unsuccessful campaign for governor in 2022 against Sarah Huckabee Sanders. He garnered a respectable 35% of the vote, but since then has co-chaired the national Dirt Road Democrats political action committee and continued his work as a banker. His message is one that has four main elements: economic equality, reinforcing citizens’ power over special interests, continuing sustainable development across Arkansas, and empowering entrepreneurs. The last point is especially important to Jones, as in addition to being a banker and pastor he was the executive director of the Arkansas Regional Innovation Hub, which gave support to entrepreneurs. He also holds five degrees, ranging from math and physics bachelor’s degrees to an M.S. in technology and policy from MIT, and a Ph.D. in urban studies and planning from MIT. This election represents a new test for Jones, and his more narrow focus from the gubernatorial race to a House seat may give him just enough of an advantage to take the race.
Platform Priorities
- Economic Equality: He wants to foster an economy that allows people to prosper, and this is much in line with his policy of supporting entrepreneurship.
- Democracy: Jones wants to be the representative for a state that increasingly feels poorly represented, as shown by its elected officials’ down votes for continuing Medicare and food system support. He also wants to ensure electoral maps are fair, and that rules are both just and followed.
- Sustainable Development: Jones wants to invest in keeping hospitals open, improving resources for teachers, and backing apprenticeships for the next generation.
- Entrepreneurship: His background is strong in allowing new business to grow, and Jones wants to continue this work in “unleashing innovation, empowering small business, and turning ideas into jobs.”
Voter & Donor Support
He has great name recognition, especially amongst Democrats, and also has a lot of wealthy connections through his network of Democratic donors and his experience as a banker. So far, he has raised $198,101, the most outside of Hill’s $2.4 million.
Why He Might Win
- Name recognition is king, and he is well connected across the state. His intelligence and education is no secret, and while his platform shies a bit away from farmers, it hits policies that help everyone
- He has experience running a race and winning a primary, and while the general election is another story, experience also is important
- Although he didn’t perform super well in the gubernatorial race, he narrowed his electorate from a strong red state to instead its least red district, giving him as good a chance as he could ask.
Why He Might Lose
- However, he still lost his gubernatorial race by a decent margin, and he is still without much government experience outside of an aid position of Sanders’ father.
- Hill is still polling decently well, and has raised far more money as of September.
- His policies are more focused on urban issues like business, which will play well in Little Rock but less well outside of the city.
Key Election Variables
- The magnitude of a potential blue wave.
- Jones’ ability to endear himself to voters outside of Little Rock.
General Election Odds: Medium
Primary Odds: High
Recent Interviews:
Chris Jones – Talk Business and Politics with Roby Brock
District 3 – Robb Ryerse
Robb Ryerse, 50, is a pastor and nonprofit leader who is no stranger to running for this district’s seat. In 2018, Ryerse challenged incumbent Steve Womack but lost in a landslide. This time around, he is eyeing a rematch and has since switched parties to the Democrats in light of Trump’s takeover of the party and affordability issues. Those affordability issues are one of the three main themes of his campaign, along with empowering a progressive vision of faith and protecting freedom in a way that includes LGBTQ+ rights, abortion, and gender affirming care. Outside of politics, he and his wife have started nonprofits that combat extremism, he’s worked with Vote Common Good and co-founded with Dr. Chris Jones Vortex PAC, along with starting a church called Vintage Fellowship. His background as a pastor and his work in the nonprofit sector are likely to endear him to many in the very religious state, and his previous campaign experience will no doubt be useful in his fight to win this time around.
Platform Priorities
- Affordability: One of the key reasons he’s running as a Democrat, affordability is paramount to Ryerse. He plans to build more affordable housing, invest in preventing homelessness, and treat housing as a human right on top of lowering healthcare costs and cutting taxes for low and middle income families.
- Faith and Governance: He wants to use faith to inject morality into politics through campaign finance reform, ending gerrymandering, expanding access to voting, and leading with transparency.
- Freedom on all fronts: Ryerse’s vision of freedom extends past religious and gun freedom to issues like bodily autonomy and LGBTQ+ rights, and includes freedom from things like systemic racism and going broke over a medical emergency.
Voter & Donor Support
He has already raised $37,462, which is on pace to pass the $50,303 he raised over the course of his 2018 run. In terms of voter support, Arkansas’ third district is the second least Republican dominated, meaning his progressive messaging may play better here.
Why He Might Win
- He has the most in depth policy website out of any on this list, which is always comforting for voters.
- He checks both demographic majority boxes as a white Christian pastor, and can still swing independents with his slightly more progressive take on most issues. As a result, he may be able to win voters from all over the political spectrum
- His focus on affordability has been shown in other states to be a genuinely salient sticking point towards incumbents, and Trump’s inability to address it so far is not going unnoticed.
Why He Might Lose
- His district is still a +10 Republican district, which is a tall order even with a 2026 blue wave.
- His opponent, Steve Womack, is a very popular Republican who has lots of local connections and appearances on top of holding the longest consecutive voting streak in the House, a testament to his work ethic and reliability.
- Progressive values, even with a Christian tinge, are still generally a risk in American politics and especially in a conservative state like Arkansas.
Key Election Variables
- How much religion and affordability becomes main issues as we near November 2026.
- Ryerse’s ability to fundraise and convince a generally more rural electorate of his progressive vision for the district.
General Election Odds: Medium
Primary Odds: Uncontested
District 4 – Steven O’Donnell and James Russell
Steven O’Donnell, 58, is an experienced business owner and former U.S. Navy sailor who now wants to stand up for the little guy. He’s worked in feed mills, the construction industry, and manufacturing before starting his own business as a licensed general contractor in home construction and remodeling. Across these many years of work and service, he has seen how the average American is slowly losing ground to elites, and his focus is on how to make the average American’s life easier. While he lacks a clear policy platform, his focus is on being a trustworthy middleman and representative of what his constituents want, not what he wants. So far, that seems to be transparency, fighting oligarchy, and protecting lower-income Americans.
Platform Priorities
- Budget Transparency: One of the few concrete promises O’Donnell makes it that he wants the U.S. House of Representatives to become the vigilant watchdog of our national interest and ensure funding decisions are scrutinized with clear receipts.
- Fighting Billionaires: Much of O’Donnell’s messaging is focused on standing up for the hardworking Americans he spent much of his career around. How he plans on doing this, however, is unclear.
Voter & Donor Support
No donor support data is available yet, but it will likely be a financial uphill battle both in the primary and general elections. On the voter front, he seems to be the definition of the everyman that many voters love to root for, but it remains to be seen how much that will translate to actual votes.
Why He Might Win
- Being a political outsider comes with no baggage and some benefits like no poor track record and being able to represent himself as a true counter to the status quo.
- His military and managerial experience will both play well in Arkansas, as well as potentially making up for a lack of government experience.
Why He Might Lose
- Practically no media presence or name recognition.
- O’Donnell also has practically no concrete policy ideas other than representing hardworking Americans and fighting corruption.
- Incumbent Bruce Westerman is very popular, currently in his fifth term in office with no sign of lost support.
Key Election Variables
- Whether or not he can come up with concrete policy standpoints.
- The extent to which he can wield his everyman image to make up for his lack of experience.
General Election Odds: Low
Primary Odds: Low
James Russell, 53, is the owner of an outpatient mental health business in Little Rock since 2014 and a veteran. He describes himself as “unapologetically progressive while also being a fiscal realist,” and he is no stranger to Arkansas politics. He ran for Governor in 2022, and despite losing, he still overperformed with an exceptionally high vote-per-dollar-spent ratio. He also initially was set to run for Tom Cotton’s seat, but switched races in late October. He has also spent time in public service roles ranging from healthcare credentialing, to disaster preparedness, and now is setting his sights higher. His platform is
Platform Priorities
- Economic Fairness: Russell supports upping the minimum wage and supporting fair pay laws, alongside improving access to education so everyone has a higher leveled playing field. He also backs a tax on the top 0.1%, and wants to close tax loopholes and campaign finance dominance by PACs.
- Healthcare: Russell aims to expand Medicare and begin moving toward healthcare for everyone.
- Housing: He sees the housing crisis as one caused by big companies, and aims to prevent companies from buying up homes and raising rent too high. He also wants to count rent payments when people apply for a mortgage, increasing the ability of citizens to own a home.
Voter & Donor Support
No donor support data is available yet, but it will likely be a financial uphill battle both in the primary and general elections. He has lived and worked throughout the 4th District, however, which means voters know who he is and while the district is fairly Republican-leaning, incumbents are increasingly unpopular as the cost-of-living fails to fall.
Why He Might Win
- He has lived and worked throughout the 4th District, meaning he is well-connected to his constituents. He also is very involved with local organizations like Renters United, further improving his track record and relatability.
- His military background and name recognition will resonate with voters.
- His policies are concrete and generally popular, despite his progressive label.
- He has experience running campaigns and has a solid media presence.
- His experience living in both rural and urban environments may lend him the ability to communicate effectively to both worlds and understand issues at their core.
Why He Might Lose
- Incumbent Bruce Westerman is very popular, currently in his fifth term in office with no sign of lost support.
- His lack of focus on farmers could hurt his chances, but much of the farmland in Arkansas is not in this district.
- Progressive values are still generally a risk in American politics and especially in a conservative state like Arkansas.
Key Election Variables
- Westerman’s ability to garner his own support while sitting on a variety of committees and subcommittees as well as being a member of multiple congressional caucuses.
- Russell’s ability to gain ground after starting the race late.
- Whether or not progressive policies like taxing the top 0.1% and Medicare for all continue to be risky, given Mamdani’s NYC mayoral win.
General Election Odds: Low to medium
Primary Odds: High
Recent Interviews:
Arkansas senate candidate James “Rus” Russell talks On The Record
Overall, Arkansas is likely to remain a Republican bastion. But that bastion may be poised to have its walls chipped every so slightly come 2026, with a handful of well-positioned Democratic candidates. In addition, those candidates’ different messages will be interesting to watch, and seeing how far progressive candidates get versus more moderate or more explicitly religious candidates will be informative for the 2028 elections. The pendulum in Arkansas has swung decidedly in favor of Republicans over the past few cycles, but that pendulum will always have a chance of swinging back, and with 2026 having issues like affordability and transparency being extra important, this might be the time.
Engagement Resources:
Ballotpedia – serves as an initial go to for candidates and races at all levels:
United States House elections in Arkansas, 2026 (March 3 Democratic primaries) – Ballotpedia
United States Congress elections, 2026 – Ballotpedia
270ToWin has an aggregate of polls and insight into how every race is shaping up towards the 2026 Midterms:
Latest 2026 Senate Election Polls – 270toWin
Latest 2026 House Election Polls – 270toWin