Zelensky’s Plan for Ukraine’s Victory: Will It Work Out?
Foreign Policy #159 | By: Yelena Korshunov | September 15, 2024
Featured Photo: www.nytimes.com
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Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky announced at the press conference that this month he is going to hand over to Joe Biden a plan for Ukraine’s victory in the war. Zelensky’s plan includes four areas. “One of the areas [of the plan], part of which has already been completed, is the [offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the] Kursk region. The second direction is Ukraine’s strategic place in the secure infrastructure of the world. The third direction is a powerful package of steps to force Russia to end the war diplomatically. The fourth [area] is economic, I won’t talk about this in detail,” Zelensky said.
According to the Time’s 2022 Person of the Year [Zelensky], it would be “fair” if the plan for victory is first and foremost presented to the US President, because the plan’s success depends on whether the White House supports Ukraine. The Ukrainian president said he would present the plan at a meeting with Biden in September. Zelensky added that “it would be right to convey this plan to both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, because we don’t know who will be the [next] president, but we really want to implement this plan.”
Like many others, Zelensky realizes that the upcoming US presidential elections will for the most part determine the fate of not only the largest European country, but the entire civilized world. Also the peaceful future of the United States may depend on how the war in Ukraine ends. Russia’s success in seizing a sovereign state will create the perfect dislocation for possible capture of land further into Europe. Then, NATO military forces would be involved in self-defense.
Meantime in Ukraine…
Meanwhile, Russia has increased attacks on cities, educational institutions, and generally on the civilian population of Ukraine. Some sources state that remnants of North Korean missiles are found at targeted sites.
On August 31st six people were killed and at least 97 people were injured, including 24 children, when Russia struck Kharkiv [a metropolis in northern Ukraine] with five guided aerial bombs. According to Ukrainian authorities, it was one of the most impactful Russian attacks on the region over the summer. Among the dead was 14-year-old Sofia, who was at a playground when she was killed.
The next day, on September 1st, when children return to school after summer recess in both Ukraine and Russia, two more people were killed and at least 10 injured, including two children, when Russian forces struck the Cherkaska Lozova village, also in the Kharkiv region. The 500 kilogram (1,100 lb) guided aerial bombs were launched from Russian territory. Ukrainian official sources say that they were very difficult to intercept. The head of the Kharkiv regional military administration, Oleh Syniehubov, said that “this is a bomb with a control module, which means that the enemy was specifically targeting residential infrastructure.”
The same day Russia’s missiles attacked en masse in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital. It happened hours before thousands of children returned to school for the first day of the academic year. Kiev’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said a water treatment plant and the entrance of a subway station that were used as a shelter were hit. Two schools and a university were also damaged. According to Ukraine’s military, 22 cruise and air ballistic missiles were intercepted by the Ukrainian air force. Local authorities stated that 3 people were injured by debris from destroyed missiles.
On September 3rd, a Russian missile strike killed at least 41 people and injured more than 180 in the Ukrainian city of Poltava. Russia launched two ballistic missiles, hitting the campus of the Military Institute of Telecommunications and Information Technologies and a nearby hospital. This strike is one of the deadliest and most devastating since the start of the war. The Ukrainian president condemned the attack and urged the West to expedite the delivery of air defense systems to Ukraine. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry wrote that 25 people were saved, 11 of whom were pulled from the debris. The ministry also noted that there was so little time between the air raid alert and the strike that many people were caught outside on their way to shelters.
On September 4th, in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, a Russian drone and missile attack early in the morning killed seven people, including four members of the same family. Andriy Sadovyi , the mayor of Lviv, a city which is close to the border with NATO member Poland, stated that a civilian man, Yaroslav Bazylevych, lost his wife and three young daughters when their home was struck. “In the center of Europe, Russia is eliminating Ukrainians by [killing off] entire families. The Russians are killing our children, our future.” According to CBC News, the attack so close to Poland prompted the government in Warsaw to scramble lift fighter jets to the Ukrainian border area, with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski telling the Financial Times that “membership in NATO does not trump each country’s responsibility for the protection of its own airspace — it’s our own constitutional duty…I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defense [to shoot them down] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant.”
The offensive in the Kursk region is slowing down.
In the Kursk region in Russia, the pace of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (AFU) offensive has slowed. Attacks by mobile armored groups no longer seem effective. After Russian reserves were moved to the Kursk region, the front has become more fortified, and Ukrainian armored vehicles are being taken out by drone strikes, anti-tank missiles, and artillery. A Russian opposition media source, Meduza, analyzes that “as a result, the AFU have had to shift to infantry assault tactics, supported by artillery, drones, and tanks. This change mirrors the adjustments seen during Ukraine’s offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region in 2023 and Russia’s offensive near Avdiivka in the winter of 2024.” Despite these challenges, the AFU have achieved some tactical successes. They captured the village of Martynovka near the Sudzha–Kursk highway and are now attempting to push further north, both to the west and to the east of the highway, with the ultimate goal of reaching the district center.
The President of Ukraine noted that the “Kursk operation” is also connected with the second peace summit, which Ukraine is going to host. “Is the Kursk operation connected with the second peace summit? Yes, because the Kursk operation is one of the points of Ukraine’s victory plan,” Zelensky said. The head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, previously stated that Ukraine wants to hold the second peace summit in one of the countries of the “global South.”
WSJ reported on September 5th that, at an economic forum with leaders from Malaysia and China, president Putin said he hadn’t given up on peace negotiations with Ukraine. Does it mean that the first area of Zelensky’s plan, the Kursk offensive, that caused growing frustrated voices about the war among Russian citizens, pushed Russia toward the negotiation table? Or is it just more of Putin’s idle rhetorical talk designed to continue brainwashing the population of his country?
Engagement Resources
- Russian air attack kills four members of same family in Ukraine’s Lviv, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-air-attacks-kyiv-western-city-lviv-ukraines-military-says-2024-09-04/
- Deadly Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s western city of Lviv prompts NATO member Poland to scramble jets, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-news-resignations-foreign-minister-lviv-attack-poland/
- Russian bomb attacks on Ukraine’s Kharkiv leave at least 8 dead, more than 100 injured, https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/31/europe/russian-bomb-attack-kharkiv-intl/index.html
- Russian missiles target Kyiv on first day of school year, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9wjey4kkp0o
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