Swing States Will Decide the Election: It’s Anyone’s Game
Elections & Politics #143 | By: Damian DeSola| September 23, 2024
Featured Photo: www.share.america.gov/what-is-a-swing-state
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This whirlwind of an election season has shaken the United States’ election practices to their core. Unprecedented events have resulted in this election becoming one of the most contentious in our modern era. The results of this election are in the hands of the seven swing states that have proven stubbornly neutral. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin, whichever side wins enough of these swing states and their electoral votes will win this election.
From a national point of view, Harris is up by around two percentage points on average, however the polling from these swing states will matter much more. Many averages done by organizations such as the New York Times, 538, and RealClear Polling, paint a picture of each swing state leaning either way by less than a percentage point. Some do not even show a lean, labeling the states as “tossup” or “even.” Based on such margins, the imagination of pundits, analysts, and journalists has run wild, building electoral maps showing how either side could win.
Analysis
Predictions for this complicated election that has been upended multiple times is a monumental task to say the least. Every prediction could change the second an unforgivable gaff or unpredictable event happens over the very few days left in this election cycle. Nonetheless, out of data and the preferential trends of voters, a prediction will be made.
The two swing states that are certainly leaning red are Georgia and Arizona. While Joe Biden won these states in 2020, recent reactions to border policies and economic policies have made Georgians and Arizonans hesitant to stand behind Harris. However, Georgia may swing blue if the issues of democracy and abortion overpower economic woes.
Michigan and Wisconsin conversely have shown preference to Harris. Unions are likely to play an important role in pulling the newly invigorated industrial areas of Wisconsin and Michigan closer to Harris. Polls have also shown these two states leaning towards Harris by much larger margins and with more consistency than other states. However, there is a significant Muslim population in Michigan that is heavily focused on the Israel-Palestine war. If enough consider Harris’ policy statements to be unsatisfactory, winning Michigan will become a much harder task for the Harris campaign.
Next is Pennsylvania, which has become a focal point for both campaigns. Both realize that winning the Keystone state will neigh win them the election. Polling is tight, but some signs are beginning to crop up.
After Harris and Trump’s first, possibly only, debate, a poll conducted by the New York Times showed Pennsylvania leaning towards Harris by two points. The Democratic campaign is focusing on large cities and their suburbs, and is rebuilding the winning black and women coalition from 2020. This election may come down to thousands of votes, but with the way trends are moving at this moment, this writer has confidence in a blue Pennsylvania this year.
Finally, we look at the states that are declared for the moment, “too close to call.” These two being Nevada and North Carolina. They are likely to share similar Republican sentiments as their respective neighbors, Arizona and Georgia, but show amenability to the Democratic message.
In North Carolina’s case, demographics are likely to be key. The high concentration of women and black likely voters will be a balancing force for the Democrats. However, this is countered by the heavy concentration of non-college educated voters, about 64% of the electorate, which overwhelmingly support Trump. Leading this predictor to believe that North Carolina is likely to still fall to the Republicans.
Finally, there is Nevada. This state could change the tide of the election if the electoral margins are truly slim. Very sparse polling data has come out of the state. Harris has a slight edge in most polls and may feel comfortable since Nevada has not favored Republicans since Obama won it in 2008. However, its proximity to the border might swing voters towards Trump. However, if trends hold true, Harris is far more likely to win Nevada.
Thus, a final prediction for this election is as follows. Trump will win Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and Harris will carry Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Leaving the final electoral score being 276 votes for Harris, and 262 votes for Trump, making Harris the next president of the United States.
As a final note, regardless of your political views, this writer hopes that you exercise your civic duty this November 5th and vote.
Engagement Resources
- 270 to Win: An interactive site that allows you to build your own predictive electoral map
- org: A nonpartisan site that helps you register to vote and provides voting information
- Voting Rights Lab: A nonpartisan site that conducts research on voting restrictions and promotes voting rights across the country.
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