Recounts, Lawsuits, and Headaches: How Certification of the Election Could Stall 

Elections & Politics #146 | By: Damian DeSola | October 12, 2024

Featured Photo: usatoday.com

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In 2000, George W. Bush won the election against Al Gore. This was after months of legal proceedings, recounts, and political maneuvers, turning the 2000 election into one of the most controversial in American history. Thousands of votes in Florida were left uncounted after the Supreme Court determined that electoral officials would not have enough time to recount before the mid-December deadline. Also notable was the “Brooks Brothers Riot,” where Republican congressional staffers and others prevented official oversight of a hand recount. Many today still argue that Gore should have won with all the post-election evidence that has come out.  

Today, we do not have the same problems such as “hanging chads” of paper ballots, but this year’s election proceedings could put the issues of 2000 to shame. With polling margins in some swing states under one point, along with active questioning about the reliability of the election, 2024 is shaping up to be a possible long haul of a wait for a certified electorate.  

Even as this is being written, lawsuits about electoral rules in certain states are still being settled. With less than a month until the election, Republicans, Democrats, and other interested parties, are working daily to build workforces and legal frameworks that are prepared to set up or counter any proceedings that may take place after the polls close. 

Major media groups, generally relied upon by the public to call state elections, are ensuring that they have vast networks of election experts and legal teams so that no mistakes are made when calling an election. These measures have come to the forefront after 2020’s various events including Fox News calling Arizona early, Donald Trump declaring victory early, and the legal battle Fox had with Dominion Voting Systems over false claims of electoral fraud. 

Analysis 

Actions to take claim of victory by both sides will come early, but the first will likely come from an expected source. Donald Trump, like in 2020, may claim a premature victory. It will be after most states are called, but before major swing states are counted in full. An announcement might be contingent on a “red mirage” that makes initial Republican leads look stronger than they are. However, many pollsters may feel more cautious about reporting results early with memories of four years ago ever present. Regardless, an announcement of victory would immediately sow doubt in the election’s integrity among the populace, no matter who ends up winning. It is here where the difficult task begins.  

Lawsuit, it is the tool that parties have enjoyed using to stall the regular activities of electoral bureaucracy when the results do not look rosy for them. Many states will be extremely close, especially the seven swing states that will choose the victor of this election. Closeness brings the opportunity for discrepancies, like those in the 2000 election.  

As previously mentioned, Republicans are working to challenge election rules in state courthouses, as Democrats work to counter those challenges. Legal frameworks are being laid by both sides to ensure their side wins a battle in a courthouse over recount requests, voter disqualification, and even state election boards refusing to certify results.   

One dangerous possibility would be that of a tie. There are three reasonably possible ways that leave the electoral college split evenly at 269 votes for both candidates. In this case, a contingent election in Congress will take place to determine the victor. However, these contingent election rules are untested in the modern era and will likely be under heavy scrutiny from both parties. With such an unprecedented case, twelve years of tension may come to a dangerous boil  

The final delay a certification of the 2024 election could endure would be a repeat of the last certification day, the Capitol storming of January 6th. Though it is likely that security services have learned from their previous mistakes, attempts to prevent certification are still a possibility. It is impossible to say what plans there may be, and it is dangerous to speculate, but it might suffice to say that whoever loses this election will not take it lying down. 

This writer, once more, implores all that read to go to the polls on November 5th or vote via mail-in ballot. Regardless of your political views, we can all agree that a clear and concise election with votes like yours may save us from this article’s stated complications.

Engagement Resources

• Vote.org: A nonpartisan site that helps you register to vote and provides voting information. 
• AP News Election 2024: News site that will help you keep track of election news and campaign activity. 
• Voting Rights Lab: A nonpartisan site that conducts research on voting restrictions and promotes voting rights across the country. 

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