Harris and Trump Will Treat Our European Allies Differently  

Foreign Policy #164 | By: Damian DeSola | October 25, 2024
Featured Photo: cbsnews.com

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The United States finds itself in a tumultuous time. Both at home and abroad, our country’s staying power is being tested. As we prepare for an election that is days away, the world is watching as we choose one of two very different views of foreign affairs to lead us through the next four years. One debate not often mentioned is the future relationship between the United States and its European allies. This brief shall discuss the European policy strategies of Trump and Harris if either were to be elected. 

During his term, Trump preferred unilateral actions and bilateral over multilateral agreements with European nations, shown through his withdrawing the U.S. from multiple multinational agreements. He also has a mixed relationship with NATO. While he has shown to see value in the organization, he has also threatened members with possible revocation of security guarantees unless they “pay more” into the alliance 

In terms of Ukraine, it is a mixed bag. He claims he has great relationships with both Putin and Zelensky and says that he would end the war if he were reelected. He also blames Ukraine and Biden for starting the war in the first place. It suffices to say that our current commitments to Ukraine would be in the air if he were reelected. 

Vice President Harris has said that, if elected, she will work to actively improve our allied relationships. She is in favor of working with our European allies multilaterally by including all relevant security and economic partners in strategy development and internal negotiations. This multilateral strategy also includes working with international organizations such as NATO and the EU. Under a Harris administration, Ukraine will also continue to receive US aid as their struggle against Russia persists. 

Analysis 

Now, which course of action would be the most beneficial for the United States and for our European allies? Simply put, a Harris administration would make policy decisions that would improve the security of the United States and democratic Europe in comparison to a Trump administration. A multilateral diplomatic strategy with our European partners would improve the security status of both our continents. 

In terms of international diplomacy, the multilateral doctrine that Harris espouses would be healthier for our friendly European relations. In comparison, Trump’s preference for dealing directly with individual European countries undermines their trust as we seek unity in democratic Europe over disunity. Multilateral agreements, while initially messier, will ensure the implementation of comprehensive and effective approaches to existing and future security issues (e.g. Ukraine, Israel, China).  

Something that specifically needs clearing up for most Americans is NATO defense spending. NATO requires member nations to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense spending. In 2017 at the start of Trump’s presidency, only four countries met the 2% requirement; by 2020, this reached nine of thirty nations. After the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, not only did NATO membership grow with the induction of Finland and Sweden, but the number of nations meeting the 2% threshold reached twenty-three out of thirty-two as of 2024. The increase is a result of common ground found between nations, as is the purpose of NATO, not from “tough negotiating”.  

With regards to the Ukraine war with Russia, Harris will either continue our current aid strategy or expand it to allow further leeway with Ukrainian usage of Western weaponry. It is also likely she would be vocal supporter  of  agreements that will allow Ukraine to integrate into the rest of democratic Europe. 

Trump’s likely policy towards Ukraine is murky. What can be said is that he would much rather the war end on any terms rather than exclusively Ukrainian ones. The freedom of Ukraine to choose the path it overwhelmingly desires, to join the Western bloc, will be left uncertain. Trump may prefer a peace that leaves Ukraine neutral, and therefore vulnerable to a near-certain second invasion after Russia regroups its military. 

One of these two views of European policy will be a reality soon. In a short time, the American people will determine the fate of our transatlantic partnerships, as well as our own fate.

 

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