What does the Economic Nobel Laureate Letter mean for the Election? 

Elections & Politics #138 | By: Arvind Salem | November 3, 2024

Featured Photo: npr.org

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As the election approaches, with the economy being one of, if not, the most important issues, twenty three Nobel Laureate economists signed an open letter endorsing Kamala Harris for President. The letter, signed by over half the living Nobel economic laureates, was spearheaded by Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor, who won the prize in 2001. This is the second letter that Stiglitz coordinated this election: he led an effort in June to support President Biden, with that letter being signed by fifteen Nobel Laureate economists. 

For Harris, the economy is a key vulnerability that might give her more credibility in the swing states and for the voters that ultimately decide the election. This includes voters in states like Michigan, where economic tensions burst into a major strike from the United Auto Workers (UAW) against the Big Three car companies last year, and in Pennsylvania, where Harris doesn’t seem to enjoy the same robust support among blue-collar workers in the state that Biden did. Trump’s closing arguments accentuate the increasing support his economic agenda has among voters in urban areas. Even strategically, the choice of J.D. Vance was an attempt from Trump to appeal to disaffected white voters in Appalachia, harnessing their dissatisfaction with the economy. 

 Analysis: 

Of course, Donald Trump isn’t going to change his economic policy based on these opinions. He dismissed the letter in June as from  “worthless out of touch” economists. Even in the vice-presidential debate, JD Vance criticized the advice of academic economists on issues such as free trade, and Tim Walz generally agreed with that sentiment (although he was considerably less harsh). 

However, the key takeaway is that academic consensus in economics is behind Harris despite overall pessimism about the economy, and despite the economy being a perceived strength for Trump.  In particular, these economists reinforced their preference for free trade, as they criticized Trump’s proposed tariffs, as well as arguing against President Trump’s regressive tax cuts. They concluded that both would “lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality”. Trump’s tariff proposal specifically has drawn criticism from multiple angles, with the Tax  Foundation noting that the proposed tariffs and the likely retaliation from trading partners would lower the U.S. long-run GDP by 1.7%.  Finally, these economists grounded their larger argument on the importance of the rule of law, as well as economic and political certainty, for economic success, noting that Trump represents a much larger threat to both of those than Harris does. 

In relation to the election, this endorsement makes it clear that Harris’s vulnerability on the economy is more a messaging problem rather than a policy one. Her policies are clearly good for the American economy and in the closing stretch of the election she needs to stress the real, proven appeals of her policies in relation to Trump’s phantom appeal. 

Engagement Resources: 

• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is a non-partisan, non profit organization that aims to educate the public on fiscal policy issues and promote fiscal responsibility. Readers interested in the issues discussed in this article may be interested in subscribing or donating to this organization. 
• The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities is a nonpartisan research and policy institute that seeks to build a nation where everyone has the resources they need to thrive. It does this through research and advocacy on a variety of fiscal policy issues on both the federal and state level. Readers interested in fiscal policy  may wish to donate or otherwise contribute to this organization. 
• The Economic Policy Institute is a nonpartisan, non-profit think tank that aims to highlight the needs of low- and middle-income workers in economic policy discussions. To accomplish this goal they conduct research on working America, propose public policy solutions to the problems plaguing working America, and assess government policies’ on low and middle-income workers. Readers interested in broader economic issues may be interested in donating to this organization. 

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