Losing the Other Georgia: Democracy is on Defense

Foreign Policy #167 | By: Damian DeSola | November 18, 2024

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On October 26th, the small country of Georgia, wedged between Türkiye and Russia, held a parliamentary election. The results are 53% for Georgian Dream and 38% for the united opposition. While this seems routine for the four-year cycle of parliamentary elections in Georgia, there is a marked difference this year. Exit polling analysis that shows inconsistencies with the reported outcome has resulted in the opposition parties and the Georgian President, Salome Zourabichvili, contesting the election results. Their argument is bolstered by reports of ballot stuffing, voter intimidation, and cases of violent activity near polling stations; many election observers believe that the reported results are invalid.

Georgian Dream was established by an oligarch, Bidzina Ivanishvili, and has held power in the Georgian government since 2012. During their tenure as the ruling party, they have faced backlash from Georgian citizens, the European Union, and the United States, for passing legislation that is laden with pro-Russian sentiment.

Earlier this year, the fears of Georgia’s authoritarian swing were confirmed by independent observers, causing the EU to halt Georgia’s accession process. This came after a highly controversial law introduced by Georgian Dream which declared Western media outlets and NGOs as “foreign agents.” The law is similar to one passed in Russia that is used to stifle free speech and allows the central government to target its domestic enemies; reacting to this law, young Georgians took to the streets of Tbilisi from April 15 th to June 5 th of 2024.

Western nations have become vocal in their skepticism of the election results, with heads of state across Europe, along with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, rejecting the result and calling for an investigation. The Georgian President met with an envoy from the EU to discuss the election, with both the envoy and President agreeing that the results are illegitimate. Concurrently, Georgian Dream leadership has refused to meet with the envoy.

The leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Hungary, all illiberal states, have congratulated Georgian Dream for their election win. While the European Union, United States, and the Georgian President all have declared this election to be undemocratic.

This pattern has become a mainstay of illiberal parties that have control over their electoral systems. By making false results look real, illiberal parties can claim legitimacy that is difficult to legally contest due to internal manipulation. The most blatant example of this was in Belarus, where hugely unpopular Viktor Lukashenko somehow won his most recent election with a little over 80% of the vote. Massive unrest in the country flared up and was brutally quelled by internal security forces.

Analysis
If one were to guess whether democracy would win in this scenario, they would look at the recent trends of geopolitics and say, decidedly, no. Unfortunately, with such proximity to Russia and vulnerability as a democracy, the chances of Georgia remaining liberal are slim. There is a chance that the EU envoy could succeed in their investigation and repeat the election, but without well-established political and bureaucratic mechanisms to do so, the EU’s ability to launch a base of influence in this affair will be troublesome.

This leaves the scenario of Georgia leaning, and possibly falling, into the hands of solid Russian influence as a clear possibility. With uncontested power, the Georgian Dream party will ban opposition parties and begin mass repression of discontent. They will also begin negotiations with Russia to settle the matter of the two occupied regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which will likely be in favor of cemented Russian ownership of the rightfully Georgian land. The chances of European Union admittance will be all but a memory, and the freedom of the Georgian people will be another casualty in this battle between democracy and autocracy. What’s more, a large swath of Middle Eastern and West Asian territory will have been vacated of any solid Western democratic influence.

What does this all mean for the overall grand strategy of the democratic West? To put it bluntly, we are on the back foot. While it was a valiant showing of strength to support Ukraine, even that has become a struggle for Western democracies to continue. We have come to the dismal point where the most we can celebrate is a democracy functioning properly in the face of the growing influence of autocrats. The fight is in our backyard and yet we refuse to acknowledge the dangers of our situation. This election in Georgia will come and go, and we as the West will watch idly by once again to watch a democracy fall into autocratic hands.

The United States will be difficult to rely upon after the election of Donald Trump. The preference for isolationist and nationalist policy will result in active ignorance on behalf of the new administration to the plight of democratic backsliding nations like Georgia. Since the American relationship with Georgia is entirely founded on values rather than economic or military cooperation, a Trump administration will be uninterested in aiding them against Russian influence.

Those who remain in the democratic West need to start taking this more seriously. Efforts by malign actors to take advantage of each democracy’s flaws are becoming more successful each time they happen. Their ability to mask their activities and disguise democratic losses as simple failures of the system undermines the ability of democratic processes to occur. Thereby damaging the popularity of democracy as a form of government worldwide.

To defend against autocrats, citizens of democratic countries along with the remaining liberal governments must begin to organize and coordinate. Only by putting aside our national, political, and personal differences for the sake of directly confronting authoritarian threats, does liberty and democracy stand a chance. In these trying times, the best we can do is consolidate and chart a path forward.

Engagement Resources

• The Friedrich Naumann Foundation is a German organization that promotes liberalism around
  the world with a focus on Europe.
• Freedom House rates the levels of political rights and civil liberties in 210 countries and
  territories around the world.

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