What Will Trump Administration Policy Towards Ukraine Look Like?
Foreign Policy Brief #170 | By: Yelena Korshunov | December 6, 2024
Photo by Markus Spiske
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The US presidential election results have been met with mixed feelings in Ukraine. Trump’s threats to cut military support and force Ukraine to give up captured territory to Russia has caused frustration and anxiety. However, many Ukrainians hope that the new U.S. president-elect will be able to stop the war at the negotiation table. They believe that Trump’s ongoing demonstrative amiability with Putin is just a part of a complicated political game.
While the war notably weakened Russia’s economy and took the lives of many Russian soldiers, Ukrainians have suffered from it much more severely, losing their lives, friends and relatives, homes, and everything they used to own. Despite incredible endeavors of the Ukrainian army and continuous weapon supplies, Russian troops move forward invading more land, taking and destroying the lives of Ukrainian people, humiliating and shooting surrendered soldiers, looting and robbing. About a fifth of Ukrainian territory has fallen under the occupation of Putin’s forces.
WHAT ABOUT THE UKRAINAIN CAPTURE OF RUSSIAN TERRITORY? THE NEW UKRAINIAN USE OF US LONG RANGE MISSILES?
On August 6th Ukraine burst through Russia’s border launching attack on the Kursk Region. Russia initially didn’t respond to the attack, but later attempted to expel the Ukrainian forces, by reportedly sending North Korean troops. Since August, a part of the Kursk region is staying under Ukraine’s control. Most likely, Zelensky will use this territory for a possible negotiation promised by Trump.
During his election campaign, Trump repeatedly pledged to end the war within 24 hours of his inauguration . However he has yet to prpose a plan of how he is going to achieve this goal. Trump vaguely has said that he will stop giving Ukraine weapons if they won’t go for the proposed conditions but will generously arm them if Putin refuses to negotiate the ceasefire. According to Reuters, proposals by Trump’s advisers include “taking NATO membership for Ukraine off the table”.
Leaving Ukraine without military support would give Russia unlimited time to garther enough weapons to hit the rest of Ukraine and invade Moldova and set up a border across NATO countries.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Ukraine could be open to a ceasefire deal if its Russian occupied territory were placed under NATO protection. In an interview with Sky News he said that the condition to end the “hot phase of the war” is NATO membership, thwprotection of Russian occupied regions and the international recognition of the country’s borders. Zelensky pointed out that “if we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control.” He added that Ukraine could later reclaim its occupied territories through diplomatic negotiations. It seems the Ukrainian president acknowledges that the occupied eastern regions might be temporarily lost in a potential ceasefire agreement with Russia.
The popular Ukrainian media source, Ukrainska Pravda, notes that as Trump prepares to return to the White House, Ukrainian officials are working behind the scenes to build strong connections with his upcoming administration. Zelensky’s office has reportedly managed to “open certain lines of communication” with Richard Grenell, Trump’s former ambassador in Germany who was initially proposed by Trump to take a seat of Secretary of State before he appointed Marco Rubio. According to Ukrainska Pravda, Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, started communicating with Grenell following a meeting between Trump and Zelensky in September. At a roundtable organized by Bloomberg in July, he advocated the creation of “autonomous zones” to resolve the conflict. Grenell also added that he would not support Ukraine’s entry into NATO. According to Routers, Grenell’s views on Ukraine “could give Ukraine’s leaders pause.”
Therefore the current conflicts in Trump’s circle are complicating the Ukrainian officials’ attempts to build connections and ensure support. A Zelensky’s official told Ukrainska Pravda that “some people from Trump’s incoming administration say Trump still holds a grudge against Zelensky and Yermak for not fully supporting him during the 2020 impeachment proceeding.
Others tell us there won’t be any support, while Trump says everything will be fine and he won’t abandon us. It feels like they’re deliberately sowing ambiguity.” It looks like while Trump is too busy with distributing fat pie pieces to those who boosted his victory in election. Considering Trump’s warm attitude toward Putin and “Russian trace” in the 2016 US presidential election, nobody can more or less accurately predict Trump’s real steps in stopping Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Engagement Resources
- Trump May Surprise Us on the Ukraine War
- Israel Celebrates, Ukraine Frets: What Trump’s win means for US allies at war
- What will Trump’s presidency mean for Russia’s war on Ukraine
- Facing uncertain faith under Trump, Ukraine appeals to his ‘strength’
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