Developments in Syria: A Window of Opportunity

Foreign Policy Brief #173 | By: Damian DeSola | January 10, 2025

Photo by Ivan Hassib

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The Assad regime has fallen. After over fifty years of a totalitarian hereditary dictatorship, the neo-Ba’athist regime vanished on 8 December 2024 when  President Bashar al-Assad escaped capture from Syrian rebels and flew to Moscow. In less than two weeks, the nearly fourteen-year civil war changed dramatically. To understand the implications of this lightning liberation, let us look at the status of the various factions whose shifts in power allowed it to occur in the first place.

Surprisingly, or perhaps unsurprisingly, the main contributor to the end of the Assad regime was its staunchest backer – Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has made difficult decisions regarding its military equipment and manpower. By focusing on its border war, Russia removed sizeable military support from Syria. Viewing the war in Ukraine as its priority, Russia effectively abandoned the Ba’athist government, allowing it to be crushed by the better organized and equipped Syrian Rebels. The loss of their influence in Syria is a major blow to Russian influence in the region and the Mediterranean, losing vital access to the country’s military and naval bases.

Who are these Syrian Rebels?  Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a Sunni Islamist paramilitary organization led by the now de facto leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Originally set up in 2011 at the outset of the Civil War as an affiliate of Al-Qaeda and supported by the now-deceased ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, it became a powerful militant opposition to the Ba’athist regime. Later, under the leadership of its current leader, al-Sharaa, the organization broke from al-Qaeda and joined various other Syrian militant groups, becoming the HTS as is understood today.

Al-Sharaa has taken steps to ensure that the new regime respects the rights of minorities and to treat former Assad employees and soldiers humanely. The interim government has also claimed they will hold elections in four years once a constitution is drafted. They have also reopened currency exchanges and have allowed Western products back on store shelves. Much of this has been understood to be signals of openness to Western governments and regional states for normalized relations.

Concurrently, there have been reports of the interim government acting in an autocratic fashion. While al-Sharaa is attempting to protect minorities writ-large, the Alawite people, the ethnic group that the Assad family came from and whom that family gave favor, live in fear of retribution from soldiers and interim government officials. Another concerning sign is the reworking of historical textbooks to exclude certain events and people without the permission of the Syrian academic community. These conflicting actions of liberalization and authoritarianism leave uncertainty as to whether the new regime will remain a beacon of hope for the Syrian people.

While this interim government controls most of the Syrian territory to the West of the Euphrates River, the Eastern side is majority controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Led by left-wing Kurdish militias and rebels, this group controls what is now referred to as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), or more fashionably (and unofficially) Rojava. This region and the SDF are backed by the United States and were a major part of the forces that captured Islamic State territory in Iraq and Syria.

Sharply opposed to the establishment of a Kurdish state, the Turkish government has conducted incursions into Kurdish-controlled territory soon after the U.S. removed troops from the Turkish border following the territorial defeat of ISIS in 2019. To justify anti-Kurdish activity, Türkiye directly aligns the SDF with the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), a militant guerilla movement in Southwest Türkiye, which they have labeled a terrorist organization. Two major sectors of Kurdish territory, North and Northeast Syria, are occupied by Turkish forces. Following the fall of the Assad regime, Türkiye has increased its attacks on Kurdish forces.

Finally, there is Israel. With the resounding defeat of Hezbollah, and the crippling of Hamas, Israel has been free to take advantage of the chaos in Syria. Soon after the fall of Damascus, Israel moved its forces into the Golan Heights, a region that the two nations have disputed for decades, with plans to permanently control the region. They have also wasted no time in destroying abandoned Assadist military assets with the goal of weakening the incoming government in case it is hostile towards Israel. The territorial incursions have been condemned by local governments including Jordan and Türkiye

Analysis

Now, how will and how should the incoming Trump administration deal with this new Syrian reality? Let us start with how the Biden administration has reacted so far. Within weeks of the interim government taking control, the U.S. State Department sent a delegation to meet with Syrian officials and the de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Soon after, the $10 million bounty on Sharaa was rescinded; spokespeople from the State Department referred to the meetings with Sharaa as  “productive”, showing signs of potential future cooperation between the U.S. and this new Syrian government. While HTS is still labeled a terrorist group by the U.S., it seems the groundwork for a potentially positive relationship is being laid.

This administration is about to leave, and along with it, its current policies. Trump has cast no illusions on the idea that he aims to be an isolationist president. In true Trumpian fashion, he has already jumped the gun by posting on Truth Social, “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!” However, where the U.S. stands in the Middle East, especially regarding Russian and Iranian influence, and a recent resurgence of Islamic terrorism, Trump may see need to establish relations with this new Syrian government. 

However, his penchant for transactional foreign policy may lead to a souring of relations. By potentially requesting too much out of the new government, such as access to the abandoned Russian naval ports, free movement of American military equipment, or even permissions for their oil fields, there are clear opportunities for Trump to sour this relationship. Furthermore, the past friendly relations between Trump and Netanyahu could result in Israeli pressure to avoid normalized relations with the new Syrian government. 

The dust has barely begun to settle on the latest developments of the Syrian Civil War, and there is still an array of potential outcomes that can occur. The chaotic civil war has brought in a range of powerful actors, capable of changing the narrative at a moment’s notice. However, an opportune moment for building a peaceful Syria is happening at the same time. If the right steps are taken by the Democratic West, the elusive bright future for the Middle East will finally be at hand. 

 

Engagement Resources

 

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