On February 10, 2025 U.S. District Judge John McConnell, Jr. ruled that the Trump Administration has continued to freeze federal funds in violation of a temporary restraining order. The temporary restraining order was issued at the end of January 2025 to restrain the Trump Administration from implementing its pause on federal payments.

The federal funds should have been disbursed for use in grants and other federal programs. However, the Trump Administration had begun a review of government programs and possible wastefulness of government funds in connection with the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed by Trump ally Elon Musk. Because of the efforts of DOGE, the distribution of many federal funds was paused. This resulted in a lawsuit against the Trump Administration from a coalition of twenty-two state attorneys general and the District of Columbia seeking to challenge Trump’s federal funding pause. Judge McConnell’s order ordered the administration to “immediately restore frozen federal funding” and “immediately end any federal funding pause.”

This order came one day after Vice – President J.D. Vance sent out a controversial tweet on what a judge may or may not be permitted to do with regard to the executive branch. In his tweet, the Vice – President stated, “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power.”

Soon afterward, a number of organizations and news outlets have openly questioned whether the Trump Administration would ignore court rulings that were decided against them and what options would be available to judges to enforce their orders and rulings.

Analysis

To be fair, the Trump Administration has not openly stated that they would not follow a judge’s order or court ruling. The day after Judge McConnell’s court ruling President Trump responded to a question asking him if he would comply with a judge’s order and the President responded, “I always abide by the courts. Always abide by them, and we’ll appeal.” While that statement is dubious given Mr. Trump’s personal history, it should have at least tempered the concerns about what the President might do should he receive another unfavorable court ruling. Especially considering the statement the Vice – President put out on his X/Twitter account.

But there is another angle that some organizations and news outlets have missed that needs to be examined. While there is the possibility that President Trump could try to ignore unfavorable court rulings it is quite possible that the administration is trying to play a long game that ends in the United States Supreme Court.

With a 6 – 3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court it is quite possible that President Trump is simply signing executive orders and taking unusual actions in order to set up a legal fight. He may very well be aware that some of his policies are unpopular and likely illegal. But if he can get people and groups angry enough to file a lawsuit against his administration and take him to court, President Trump can then let the court case play out with appeals to various appeals courts. The endgame would be a case that lands before the Supreme Court with its current conservative leaning composition.

Trump and his allies know that not all of them will end up at the Supreme Court but if only a handful do then that’s a win for Trump even if not all are approved. They don’t care that some of his orders are illegal and/or unconstitutional as long as the Trump Administration can get the discussion moving through the courts. It can probably be analogized to being a baseball hitter. You might only hit .333 as a batter but that’s considered successful in baseball. If Trump gets only 1/3 of his executive orders upheld by the courts, then he can claim success even if his other 2/3 fail in the courts or are overruled. It may very well be likely that the President is banking on the Supreme Court to hear the cases and then simply issue a ruling upholding his controversial executive orders and policies. Or even overrule long – standing Court precedent as what might occur with the birthright citizenship executive order the President signed. (The birthright executive order was temporarily blocked because it conflicts with a 120 year old Supreme Court case, United States v. Wong Kim Ark. The administration is expected to appeal to the Supreme Court to ask the Court to overrule Wong Kim Ark.) This may take a couple of years but it is a development that should be monitored for the current challenges to Mr. Trump’s executive orders and policies and for the executive orders and policies that this administration will put forth in the coming months and years. LEARN MORE

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