Tangled Part 1: How Trump uses Machiavelli to Win An Election
Elections & Politics Brief #179 | By: Rudolph Lurz | March 26, 2025
Featured Photo by Salon.com
Niccolo Machiavelli’s The Prince provides a playbook for rulers to seize, hold, and consolidate power. Donald Trump’s second ascent to the Oval Office demonstrates that Machiavelli’s lessons are just as valid in 2025 as they were in 1515. The Prince is frequently summarized with the adage of “the ends justify the means”. Its power goes much deeper than that. Machiavelli does not specifically advocate for immorality. He stresses the need for amorality. A ruler should be primarily concerned with two things: the prosperity and security of his people. For a leader, there is no right or wrong. There is only what is necessary to secure wealth and safety. Machiavelli argues that the appearance of virtue is more important than being virtuous. However, when the time comes to advance the cause of the nation, the ruler must be prepared to do things that would be considered evil by outside observers. In short, most people might claim to want leaders who are honest, kind, virtuous, and temperate. History shows, even in 1515, that they support leaders who provide them with prosperity and security, regardless of their sins or personal flaws. As Machiavelli notes,
“As a prince is forced to know how to act like a beast, he must learn from the fox and the lion; because the lion is defenseless against traps and a fox is defenseless against wolves…Those who simply act like lions are stupid. So it follows that a prudent ruler cannot, and must not, honour his word when it places him at a disadvantage and when the reasons for which he made his promise no longer exist…Everyone sees what you appear to be, few experience what you really are. And those few dare not gainsay the many who are backed by the majesty of the state. In the actions of all men, and especially of princes, where there is no court of appeal, one judges by the result. So let a prince set about the task of conquering and maintaining his state; his methods will always be judged honourable and will be universally praised” (pp. 57-58).
Machiavelli also advocated for leaders to make use of the patriotic symbols, songs, and festivals of their states. The goal of using pageantry to consolidate power was simple. By tying one’s own image to the patriotic symbols of the country, princes could become synonymous with their states. In doing so, a successful prince could turn political opponents into traitors, and have his supporters fight for him with the fervor they normally reserve for their country.
Does this sound familiar? President Trump literally hugs the American flag at rallies. Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless the U.S.A.” is the most popular anthem heard by his crowds. “U.S.A.!” chants resound through the arena, as if it were the Olympics instead of a political event.
President Trump was burned late in the 2020 campaign by security and prosperity concerns. He made both his primary punchlines in 2024. They will continue to be the stories in the 2028 campaign, unless the Democrats can finally find a response to a 500-year old power tactic.
Analysis
Former President Joe Biden misread his election victory in 2020 as a mandate for his vision for the country. In reality, President Trump was cruising towards re-election for a majority of the primary campaign. Unemployment was low, the economy was doing well, the leader of ISIS was dead, and the United States was winding down its involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Covid-19 and the civil unrest following the death of George Floyd completely changed the equation. Millions of Americans were sick. Thousands of Americans were dead. Unemployment surged to double digits. Riots ravaged major cities across the country as the nation burned, causing billions of dollars in damage.
President Trump suddenly crashed to 0-2 on the Machiavelli indicators.
The defeat of President Biden and Vice President Harris in the 2024 campaign could be traced to similar indicators. President Trump was more creative in his deployment of these attacks, because he had to rely on the perception of insecurity and poverty rather than the stark realities that sunk his 2020 re-election campaign. The S&P 500 rose 57.9% during Biden’s single term in office. Not as strong as the 66% growth from President Trump’s first term, but still respectable. Unemployment rates were at 4.1% at the end of Biden’s term.
If Americans used these statistics or solely viewed their 401K plans to gauge the strength of the economy, Vice President Harris might have been sworn into office on January 20th.
President Trump relied on inflation to attack President Biden and later Vice President Harris. Inflation was a global issue with complex roots as countries emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted these issues and also predicted a cooling of these inflationary trends in October 2024, declaring that the global war against inflation was “almost won”.
The populace is not logical, as Machiavelli recognized 500 years ago. Through consistent messaging, President Trump laid the inflation solely at the feet of the hapless Biden/Harris administration. It is still his tactic, even after re-taking the Oval Office. Trump noted as inflation began to rise again this February that he had nothing to do with it, and that the environmental and DEI measures instituted during the Biden Administration were the cause.
No matter what effect Trump’s tariffs have on inflation or consumer prices, any economic downturns will be placed on Joe Biden’s shoulders. It’s an absurd word scramble that normally includes terms like Bidenomics, DEI, Green New Deal, AOC, liberals, and woke.
Security was also used by President Trump to attack President Biden. Trump used immigration as his primary weapon. Monthly encounters of migrants at America’s southern border surged to 301,981 in December 2023, and were consistently over 200,000 per month for most of Biden’s term in office. Those monthly numbers were under 100,000 for most of Trump’s first term, with a high of 144,110 crossings reported in May 2019. President Trump frequently referred to these crossings as an “invasion” and used incidents like the horrific murder of Laken Riley to frame Biden as complicit in the violence caused by migrants.
President Biden and others on the left countered with statistics demonstrating that undocumented migrants were almost 40% less likely to commit crimes than native-born U.S. citizens. American voters were not comforted by these statistics. Any crimes committed by migrants were framed as preventable by Trump’s campaign. If the border was secure, and no migrants crossed, Laken Riley would be alive.
Monthly border encounters had already dropped to 107, 473 by August 2024. Violent crime fell by nearly 50% between 1993 and 2022. The Biden/Harris administration should have been on solid ground on Machiavelli’s indicators from The Prince.
I hope President Trump gave his communication team a set of steak knives. They successfully created the image of a bankrupt country overrun by violent criminals. Biden and Harris were complicit in America’s fall and only President Trump could fix it.
How does the Democratic Party move forward when even basic facts are now doubted by a large percentage of the electorate? They need to use Machiavelli’s playbook against President Trump and stop wasting airtime and bandwidth on things that people just do not value.
Safeguarding democracy should be important. Women’s healthcare should be important. The moral character of a leader should be important. The environment should be important.
Machiavelli demonstrates concretely that security and prosperity are paramount to whether a leader remains in power. Americans do not like President Trump. They voted for him anyway.
Democratic strategist James Carville has part of the answer. “It’s the economy, stupid” was the tagline Bill Clinton utilized to comfortably win elections. Carville recently noted that the Democratic Party lost the economic narrative, and with it the election. If it wants to win again, it must reclaim that message and make it resonate with the working class.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz made several missteps as Kamala Harris’s choice for VP, but he was dead right on a crucial one late in the campaign. The Democratic Party must retake the flag, family values, and football. Trump has used Machiavelli’s playbook to imbue himself into the patriotic symbols of the country. His supporters view opposition as treason.
If the Democrats want to win again, they must untangle that web and separate Trump from Old Glory. They must tell MAGA Republicans, as Robert Redford’s character says at the end of the film, The Last Castle, “It’s not your flag.”
It belongs to all of us.
Every morning on my way to drop my kids off at school, I pass by a house with an American flag flying on a pole, and a Trump flag flying right below it. On windy days, those two flags become tangled.
Trump has tangled himself into the symbols that Americans love. For Democrats to win, they must win on the messages of prosperity and security. 2024 showed that we care about prices and security more than democratic traditions and morality. To win in 2026 and 2028, Democrats must untangle this mess and do a better job of showing how they would keep Americans safe and put a chicken in every pot.
There’s no excuse. The GOP’s Machiavellian playbook has an ending that can be seen from 500 years away. It’s time to use it against the party which has abused it.
Engagement Resources
- Niccolo Machiavelli’s The Prince: The Project Gutenberg eBook of The Prince, by Nicolo Machiavelli
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection Statistics: CBP Enforcement Statistics | U.S. Customs and Border Protection