Where Democrats Can Aim for in the 2026 Midterms: Senate Edition

Brief # 180 Elections & Politics | Nate Iglehart | March 31, 2025

Featured Photo: Wisconsin Examiner

Summary

After two months into Donald Trump’s second presidency, many voters and Congresspeople are already eyeing the 2026 Congressional elections. The November 3rd elections could mark a pivotal moment in President Donald Trump’s second term.

The Senate in particular plays a very important role in checking the executive branch’s power. Between confirming appointments of federal judges, ratifying treaties negotiated by the president, and conducting impeachment trials, it plays a vital role in government.

On each of these fronts, President Donald Trump has been on the offensive; attacking federal judges, calling for their impeachments, and signing treaties with various foreign powers. If Democrats can retake control of the Senate in 2026, they will have a viable avenue to oppose Trump’s agenda outside of litigation.

Analysis

The Democrats currently control 45 seats, with 2 independent seats who often vote alongside them, to Republicans’ 53. They would need to control 51 seats, a net gain of essentially 4, for a majority due to JD Vance’s tie-breaking power.

Now, of the 100 seats in the Senate, there are 33 up for election this cycle, with 2 open due to special elections in Florida and Ohio. 13 of those seats are held by Democrats, with 9 in firmly blue areas. Of the remaining 4, Minnesota and New Hampshire lean blue, while Georgia and Michigan are considered complete toss-ups.

In Michigan, Democrat Gary Peters said he would not seek reelection in 2026, setting the stage for a tight race. Democrat Elissa Slotkin won the other Senate seat in 2024 by less than four-tenths of a percentage point, and Republican Mike Rogers, the runner-up who’s teased another run in 2026, represented the best showing in a Senate race by Republicans in Michigan since 1994. While the battleground state voted red in 2024, the race will still likely be exceedingly close in lieu of an incumbent who’s track record can speak for itself, especially as Pete Buttigieg and Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer have both passed on running.

Georgia’s seat is particularly interesting. Democrat Jon Ossoff won his very first term there last year by 1.4%, a mere 55,000 votes. Georgia has been a battleground state for the last two elections, voting blue in 2020 and then red by 2.2% in 2024. While Sen. Ossoff’s ability to win in a Trump-leaning state is impressive, his campaign seems to be taking a combative stance against the president. Billing himself as a bipartisan public servant the first time around, he has called Trump corrupt and said he is poisoning democracy more recently. His approach may galvanize disillusioned Republican voters to help secure Georgia, but it is too soon to tell.

In terms of offensive chances, most of the Republican seats up for grabs are in strongly red areas. But the Democrats are eyeing Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio.

While Maine voted blue in 2024, analysts say that Republican Susan Collins, who is seeking her sixth term and has been a perennial “white whale” of the Democrats, has a decent chance to retain her seat against two main challengers. Phillip Rench, a 37-year-old former engineer at Elon Musk’s SpaceX, is running as an independent, while Democrat Natasha Alcala is running on a platform focused on infrastructure, programs for veterans and the disabled, and elderly care. But between a possible blue wave and Sen. Collins’ sometimes tumultuous relationship with the GOP (she frequently crosses party lines and voted for Trump’s second impeachment), even Republican analysts have cited it as one of the 3 seats to defend in 2026.

North Carolina’s race showcases a wide range of challengers to Republican Thom Tillis, including Lara Trump, former Democratic governor Roy Cooper, and former Democratic congressman Wiley Nickel. Cooper is a popular challenger, having won the governorship in 2016 and 2020 while Trump was on the ballot, and is an accomplished fundraiser in a state that is losing faith in Sen. Tillis, who has a 25% approval rating.

Finally, in Ohio, Democrats are apparently lobbying former Sen. Sherrod Brown to run against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat after JD Vance left for D.C. to become Vice President. Last year, Brown lost his seat by 3 points to Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, a strong candidate in a slowly red-shifting state. Tim Ryan, a former Ohio representative, also has expressed interest in the Senate seat.

But at the end of the day, it is simply too far down the road to make any accurate predictions in any races. Even polls right before the elections can be off, as seen in the 2024 elections with the president, but also with the predictions of a “red wave”  that never materialized in 2022. While only time will tell who gets the Senate in 2026, the races are shaping up to be wildly expensive and more important than ever.”

Engagement Resources:

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics is a comprehensive, nonpartisan political analysis newsletter.
• Cook Political Report is another independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes U.S. elections and campaigns.
• S. Vote Foundation is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan public charity founded in 2005 that provides voting services and election data.