Summary

After two months into Donald Trump’s second presidency, many voters and Congresspeople are already eyeing the 2026 Congressional elections. The November 3rd elections could mark a pivotal moment in President Donald Trump’s second term.

The House of Representatives is far more flexible than the Senate because all 435 of its members are up for election every two years. Its unique duties include initiating revenue bills, impeaching federal officials, and electing the President in the case of an electoral college tie.

This flexibility may allow the Democrats to win enough seats to gain a majority and mount a resistance to Donald Trump’s agenda. The razor-thin majority the Republicans have may be more easily flipped than in the Senate for a number of reasons including how the midterms generally favor the opposition party. However, there are still factors that could moderate the advantage that Democrats might have.

Analysis

The elections in the House of Representatives are very wide-ranging, as all 435 seats are on the line. Democrats currently control 213 and Republicans control 218, with 4 vacancies. A net gain of just 3 would give the Democrats a majority. But the Cook Political Report identifies 18 seats (10 blue, 8 red) that are likely toss-ups.

Democrat-held

•          CA-13 Gray
•          CA-45 Tran
•          ME-02 Golden
•          NC-01 Davis
•          NM-02 Vasquez
•          NY-04 Gillen
•          OH-09 Kaptur
•          OH-13 Sykes
•          TX-34 Gonzalez
•          WA-03 Perez

Republican-held

•          AZ-01 Schweikert
•          AZ-06 Ciscomani
•          CO-08 Evans
•          IA-01 Miller-Meeks
•          MI-07 Barrett
•          NE-02 Bacon
•          PA-07 Mackenzie
•          PA-10 Perry

Most of these races are in districts where the current representative won by minute margins, sometimes as small as 788 in Rep. Miller-Meeks’ case. But instead of going race-by-race and highlighting which ones are likely to flip, it would be more worthwhile to look at the trends that may decide control of the House come 2026.

Firstly, midterm elections often favor the party who’s not represented by the president. This also applies to the Senate, but it is doubly important for the House because of the sheer number of seats up for grabs. Since the Civil War, the President’s party has lost ground in the House in 38 out of 41 elections, and with an administration as divisive as Donald Trump’s, there is a very real possibility of a blue wave. Additionally, because the opposition historically gains ground, it means that the opposition incumbentsin toss-up races generally can hold onto their seat, meaning those 10 seats mentioned above may be ever so slightly harder to flip than the 8 Republican-held seats.

But while the Democrats may enjoy increased support due to being the opposition, midterms often mean a lower voter turnout that attracts older, white, and college-educated voters. While it is unclear the extent to which having a lower-voter turnout will help or hurt Democrats, older white voters will likely skew towards Republicans like they did in the 2022 midterms, with 57% voting Republican. When it comes to college-educated voters, they tend to vote Democrat across the board, with 56% voting blue in 2022. Whether the college-educated vote will cancel out the elderly white vote will only become clear as time goes on.

Finally, there are a wide range of Democratic representatives who are eyeing higher office or running for Senate seats. As a result, once safe Democratic seats could become far more uncertain races, and battleground races could become all the more competitive. For example, in Maine Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, who narrowly won his race, is reportedly eyeing a run at a Senate seat to challenge GOP Sen. Susan Collins, or to replace the current Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who can’t run again due to a term limit.

In Michigan, Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet, is also considering a run for the Senate after Sen. Gary Peters announced his retirement, while in Minnesota the same story is playing out with Democratic Rep. Angie Craig gunning for outgoing Sen. Tina Smith’s seat.

In some of these cases, there are Democrat candidates who are ready to step forward to the race’s starting line. But new faces on the block aren’t always loved by voters, especially in turbulent times like these when stability and experience are extra appealing.

While the Democrats likely have a better chance at gaining a majority in the House than in the Senate, it still will likely not be an easy road or even a large majority that they get. As time goes on, the picture will become clearer. But regardless of the outcome, the 2026 midterm elections will be far more consequential than normal.

Engagement Resources:

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics is a comprehensive, nonpartisan political analysis newsletter.
• Cook Political Report is another independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes U.S. elections and campaigns.
• U.S. Vote Foundation is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan public charity founded in 2005 that provides voting services and election data.