Mississippi, the Magnolia State, is a Bible Belt state that has grown to become a Republican stronghold. In the presidential elections, it has gone red in every election since Reagan. But while there is only one Democratic Representative and no Democratic Senators from the state, it is a hotspot for voting rights battles in large part due to a large African-American population that makes up almost 38% of the population. Democrats have been spending a decent amount of money in the state with hopes of upsetting the Republican supermajority, yet it is fairly unlikely for any seats to flip. If they are to flip, it would require hitting on what matters to voters here. The primary elections were on March 10, with a primary runoff on April 7, 2026, and the general election will take place on November 3.
Mississippi is also one of, and perhaps the most religious state in the country according to polls. But its ranking in other categories swings the other way. The state is ranked last among all states for health care, 47th in infrastructure, 49th in economy, and 50th in median income. GDP growth has been quite good recently, being one of the fastest-growing states thanks to agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and manufacturing, but this growth is not expected to last. What this means for candidates is that the economy is paramount, and promising to retain and perhaps even hypercharge as much economic momentum as possible is vital for a successful campaign.
This might be hard, seeing as the state’s historical dependence on cotton agriculture, late development, frequent flooding, and poor general infrastructure all stand tall in the way of an economic miracle. Each of these will require concerted efforts to overcome, but doing so in a way that is cheap and convincing for voters will be key. This would not be the first miracle the state has experienced, however. Educational results have increased substantially as a result of policy, curriculum, and pedagogical changes since 2013. At the time, students were performing a full grade below the U.S. average, but by 2024, the students had reversed course and now sat half a grade above the average.
Currently, the two Senators are Republicans Roger Wicker and Cindy Hyde-Smith, with only the latter up for election this cycle. Hyde-Smith just handily beat her primary challenger, Sarah Adlakha, winning 80% of the vote. Hyde-Smith’s journey is an interesting one; she was originally a Democrat in the Mississippi State Senate, but switched parties in 2010 before being elected Mississippi agriculture commissioner in 2011 as the first woman to be elected to that office. In 2018, Governor Phil Bryant announced his intention to appoint Hyde-Smith to the United States Senate seat being vacated due to the resignation of Thad Cochran, and thus she also became the first woman to represent Mississippi in Congress.
During her time in Congress, Hyde-Smith has served on the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, and the Committee on Rules and Administration. Much of Hyde-Smith’s policies are in line with Donald Trump’s agenda and she calls herself a fiscal conservative. She opposes the ACA, she opposes abortion, she voted against the legislation that codifies same-sex marriage rights into federal law, and she has made some posts praising Confederate leaders and soldiers. All of this has played well in the state, as shown by her easy primary victory, and her personal close ties to Trump and many Mississippi farmers will likely help her retain her seat. She also has an extremely long list of endorsements, and has raised $4,391,524 in her race, meaning she is in a prime position to defeat her challenger, Democrat Scott Colom.
Colom, a 43-year-old Mississippi district attorney, edged out two primary opponents in Marine Corps veteran Albert Littell and Priscilla Williams-Till, a distant cousin of lynching victim Emmett Till. He won 73% of the vote, showing that Democratic voters have confidence that Colom is the right choice, and it is hard to argue. His platform has been framed as one that puts Mississippi first, not one party or another. His main policies include a populist-leaning economic message focused on lowering costs, raising wages, and tax relief for certain workers like teachers and law enforcement, while healthcare also sits as a main pillar for Colom. He wants to expand ACA subsidies and expand access to hospitals, both urban and rural, and he has leveraged his law background to emphasize public safety and law enforcement credibility, helping him run as a “tough but fair” Democrat in a conservative state. Finally, he wants to avoid shutdowns and work on bipartisan deals at the federal level. All of this would play very well in most states, and his healthcare message will help him. Additionally, his background as an African American may help drive up turnout numbers for voters from that demographic in a state where that really matters. But his economic message is a bit vague, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1989. While his primary race was easy, his general election will be an extremely uphill battle, especially given the fact that he has only raised $1,021,962 so far, a fourth of what his opponent has. This race is essentially a referendum on Trump’s agenda and his movement, and regardless of the policies, Trump is still massively popular here, and Hyde-Smith is his envoy. If he is going to win this seat, Colom will need a massive blue wave, massive voter turnout, and perhaps even a mistake from Hyde-Smith, all to happen at the same time.
In the House, the four Representatives are Republican Trent Kelly, Democrat Bennie Thompson, Republican Michael Guest, and Republican Mike Ezell for district one through four respectively. Out of the four races, these are the Democratic names to keep an eye out for:
District 1: Cliff Johnson
District 2: Bennie Thompson
District 3: Michael Chiaradio
District 4: Jeffrey Hulum III
Most Competitive Districts for Democrats
While no district is truly competitive for Democrats this cycle, there are two that could be ones where Democrats either solidify their hold on the seat or close the gap. The first is Mississippi’s 2nd Congressional District, currently represented by Democrat Bennie Thompson. The district covers much of Western Mississippi and includes most of Canton and the capital of Jackson. It is a majority-Black district, making up 63% of the population, and leans blue by about 11 points. Here, Thompson won 86% of the vote, and with a margin that large in a blue district, he is all but assured to win his race. Republicans haven’t spent much money here (only about $56,000), so it seems they are somewhat sure they won’t upset Thompson. What Democrats will hope to see is a widening of the gap in the district, allowing them to truly consider this a safe seat and perhaps allow them to prepare for a successor to Thompson, who is 78.
The other competitive district will be Mississippi’s 3rd Congressional District, currently represented by republican Michael Guest. Guest is a pretty popular candidate, having run unopposed in this year’s primary and in both the 2024 primary and general elections. Before that, he won 70% of the vote in 2022. This district has a Republican lean of 14 points, which thus far has translated to races that Republicans have not had to worry about since 1997. However, this is the least red district in the state, meaning that if Democrats want to flip a seat in Mississippi, it will likely have to be here. The district covers central portions of the state and stretches from the Louisiana border in the west to the Alabama border in the east. There are some large cities, such as Brookhaven and Starkville, and it also includes most of the wealthier portions of Jackson. For a Democratic win here, their candidate, Michael Chiaradio, will need to leverage these urban connections alongside rural farmers and minority groups, essentially creating as broad a coalition as possible.
Most Competitive Mississippi Democrats in 2026
Bennie Thompson: MS-02
Bennie Thompson, 78, has represented this district since 1993, and in that time has become a very prominent Democrat on a national level. He served as the chair of the Committee on Homeland Security from 2007 to 2011 and from 2019 to 2023. Since 2011, he has been the only Democrat in Mississippi’s congressional delegation. Before politics, Thompson was a schoolteacher and the mayor of Bolton. But in Congress, he has become an icon of civil and voting rights, a strong supporter of expanding healthcare and reducing rural health disparities, a Democratic champion of homeland security with a focus on first responders and disaster response systems, and a proponent for agriculture and rural development. Thompson has enjoyed high popularity ratings and easy elections since 2004, and raised $497,949 this election, almost 10 times his opponent’s numbers. As an incumbent, an effective and popular Congressman, and a stalwart Democrat in a blue district that he has spent much time focusing on over national politics, Thompson will almost certainly remain the representative in this district. The only question is just how wide a margin he wins by, and if his progressive primary opponent, Evan Turnage, will use this election loss as a way to get his name out there in case he decides to run again next cycle.
Michael Chiaradio: MS-03
Michael Chiaradio, 35, is a regenerative farmer and entrepreneur who seeks to unseat Michael Guest. Chiaradio owns and operates a regenerative farm in Shubuta, Mississippi, and previously worked as a member of the corporate leadership team at Maximus Inc., a government contractor supporting Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. Chiaradio’s platform focuses on agricultural Investment and modernizing Mississippi’s energy grid, small business support, expanding programs for universal childcare, food assistance, and homelessness, and security goals such as increased border security and reforming the immigration system to be more efficient. For a Democrat in Mississippi, there is enough distance from mainstream blue policies that Chiaradio might be able to navigate the inherent disadvantage of running in a red district. Additionally, the agricultural, healthcare, and infrastructure investment pledges will all play well here. But his opponent is well-liked, well-funded, and the incumbent representative. If there were to be a surprise upset, it would have to be this race, but the prospect remains unlikely.
Recent Interviews:
ASBL 43 Michael Chiaradio, Candidate for Congress, Mississippi District 3
Engagement Resources:
- Ballotpedia- serves as an initial go-to for candidates and races at all levels:
- Cook Political Report- CPR evaluates races by competitiveness:
- Magnolia Tribune is a nonprofit outlet known for tracking political maneuvering and behind-the-scenes state government news. Mississippi Today is a similarly trusted outlet known for covering politics, policy, and education in Mississippi.